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belowthegoalline

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  1. belowthegoalline
    Please check out the full article at Below the Goal Line. Thanks for reading! Check out the post from Below the Goal Line for an Eastern Conference playoff primer!
     
    Below the Goal Line continues its preview of the NHL race to the playoffs. Last night, we looked at the Eastern Conference. Today, we will look into what's happening in the Western Conference.
     
    As of this morning, only one team has qualified for the playoffs so far in the Western Conference. That would be the Nashville Predators. With 106 points in 72 games played, the Predators are the likely favorites to be the top overall seed to win the Central Division and finish first in the West. That would match them up with the second Wild Card team that qualifies for the playoffs in the West.
    The Winnipeg Jets are another strong contended in the Central Division. They sit in second place with 98 points in 73 games. They will likely be the second see in the Central, and if that's true, they will face the third team in the Central.
     
    That third team will come down to a race between the Minnesota Wild (90 point in 38 games) and the Colorado Avalanche (87 in 74). Minnesota has a strong, 6-point lead of the fourth team in the Central Division, the reeling Dallas Stars, so they will likely finish in a playoff spot even if it's just a Wild Card spot.
     
    The Avalanche, who have been playing some strong hockey lately, do occupy that first Wild Card position in the Western Conference. After going 6-1-3, they have opened up a two point gap between themselves and the Anaheim Ducks of the Pacific Division. Barring a sudden drop in play, the Avalanche, too, will qualify for the playoffs, but where they will be seeded is still up for debate.
     
    In what would be a preseason surprise, the Vegas Golden Knights lead the Pacific Division with 99 points in 73 games. If you have watched any of the Golden Knights this season, you would not be surprised they occupy a high spot in the Western Conference playoff picture. Vegas is a strong, fast team that makes you pay for your mistakes. They will be interested to follow postseason.
     
    The San Jose Sharks occupy the second spot in the Pacific with 91 points in 73 games. Playing a significant chunk of the season without offensive catalyst Joe Thornton, the Sharks have stuck around and find themselves four points ahead of the rival Los Angeles Kings. The Sharks will likely have home ice against an in-state rival in the first round of the playoffs.
     
    The aforementioned Kings sit in the third spot in the Pacific Division. With with 87 points in 74 games, Los Angeles is just one game ahead of the second Wild Card team, the Anaheim Ducks, who have played one less game. If the can take advantage of the seven remaining games against teams below them in the standings, they will be in a good position to face the Sharks in the first round.
     
    The Dallas Stars sit two points out of the final Wild Card spot occupied by the Ducks. They have been in an absolute free-fall lately, going just 2-5-3 in their last ten. I don't know if they can fix all of their problems in time to qualify for the playoffs.
     
    The St. Louis Blues, who I wrote off a few days ago, are three points back of Anaheim, but are still a contender for a Wild Card spot if the Ducks struggle at all the last few weeks.
     
    Calgary is the only other team with a shot at the postseason. With just 80 points in 74 games, the Flames are six points out of a playoff spot. The offense has been a struggle for the Flames, who aren't deep enough to score with the rest of the playoff hopefuls.
     
    Here is what I see the playoffs looking like in a few weeks: Vegas vs. Los Angeles, San Jose vs. Anaheim, Nashville vs. Colorado, and Winnipeg vs. Minnesota.
     
    This would mean that the Duck pass up the Kings for the third spot in the Pacific, and the Avalanche continue to impress by making the playoffs over the likes of Dallas and St. Louis after a dreadful season last year. Winnipeg will likely overrun the Wild, but it should be interesting match-up, with the winner taking on the Nashville Predators in the next round.
     
    I think the playoff experience from last year from the Predators propel them to conference final, where they will meet the Anaheim Ducks. The heavy game of the Ducks will overcome the injury-riddled Sharks, and their playoff experience will be just too much for the upstart Golden Knights. 
     
    Stay tuned for more on the playoff race. Good luck to everyone the rest of the way!
  2. belowthegoalline
    Thanks for reading! Please visit Below the Goal Line for more hockey coverage!
     
    A lot has been said lately about the current NHL playoff format. There has been a lot of negative sentiment over the structure we use now, and I want to give you my spin on it as we approach the playoffs. Don't forget to check out my Eastern Conference and Western Conference playoff previews. A third team, the Boston Bruins, qualified last night for the 2018 postseason.
     
    For simplicity, I don't think the NHL wants to change the playoff format this summer, and then change it again in a few years when the NHL expands to Seattle. I would imagine that we are sticking with the current playoff system until we have 32 teams, and the divisions are re-aligned.
     
    Personally, I don't have a big issue with the current playoff format. I think that if you want to win a Stanley Cup, you are going to have to go through good teams. If you play those good teams in the first two rounds as opposed to the Conference Finals or Stanley Cup Final, you still have to win 16 games to capture the ultimate prize.
     
    My preference, however, would be to return the playoff format should to the 1 vs. 8 first-round match-up format we had before the Thrashers moved to Winnipeg. I think the best teams in the regular season should be rewarded with the lower teams among qualifying teams in first-round match-ups.
     
    No matter what, the playoffs are not going to expand. We are staying with a 16-team playoff, and that will give eight playoff spots to each conference. There will be nothing good about saying the top 16 teams in the NHL make the playoffs If that were the case, why do we even have divisions or conferences? Everyone should be in the same conference and play every team twice a year in that scenario to make things even.
     
    I also don't agree with the notion that we throw away the conference thing and just go #1 record vs 16 record, #2 vs. #15, and so on. The travel would be exhausted for everyone involved. Keep the conferences separate, with the winners still meeting in the Stanley Cup Final.
     
    Personally, I am in favor of the four-team divisions (would give us eight divisions, four in each conference). If you missed that article, you can check it out here. I think you then give each division winner a playoff spot, and then four Wild Card spots make up the rest of the eight teams per conference.
     
    This system would reward good teams with a strong division leader, as they can still make the playoffs. You also aren't forcing "bad" teams into playoff spots like you do now. You force a team to win a division, or be a top team in the rest of its conference to make the playoffs, instead of giving away playoff spots to average teams in weak divisions.
     
    So, how do you seed your playoffs in this scenario? The division winners get home-ice advantage in the first round. I know we could see a case where the second-best team in Division A (metaphorical teams here) is better than the best team in Division C, but there has to be some reason you even have division. If you don't want to reward division winners, then let's just have one big Western Conference.
     
    Then, you give the best division winner the lowest Wild Card team. Reward the best team in the conference with the worst playoff team from that conference. Second best division winner gets the second lowest Wild Card team, and so on.
     
    It would look a little something like this:
     
    Division A winner vs. Wild Card #4 (Wild Card team with worst record)
    Division B winner vs. Wild Card #3
    Division C winner vs. Wild Card #2
    Division D winner vs. Wild Card #1 (Wild Card team with best record)
     
    After the first round, you go back to highest seed remaining plays lowest seed remaining. This would eliminate the unwanted second round match-ups of a really good team playing a really good team.
     
    This is the best case scenario in my mind, as everyone is treated fairly. There would be a better mix of teams in the playoffs, and we would get to see those playoff series between the "better teams" later in the playoffs, which it seems is the driving force for this whole conversation.
     
    Let's say we stick with the four division format for a minute.  The current playoff systems would have to be altered for people to get what they want, even though I'm okay the way it is right now. I think you need to eliminate the mini brackets the NHL has created with the true playoff bracket. To counter this, the NHL should go back to the old format where the team with the best record that advances to the second round of the playoffs should face the team with the worst record that also advances.
     
    At the end of the day, someone who misses the playoffs will think they deserve to be in the playoffs every year. Every season, 15 teams (soon to be 16) don't make the playoffs. I think you could make a case for a different playoff system every year to fit your favorite team in the playoffs. This is what I would do to make things a little bit more balanced for the entirety of the NHL.
     
  3. belowthegoalline
    Thanks for reading the latest from Below the Goal Line! Check out a BTGL exclusive: Can the Dallas Stars Fix Themselves Soon?
    This summer, some big name hockey players are set to hit the free agent market. No one is bigger than John Tavares, who we will watch closely. Evander Kane is another big name teams will think about to bolster their team's offense.
     
    Kane has a checkered past. He has had his run ins with the law, and he has been a locker room nightmare, specifically in Winnipeg. Evander Kane comes with a lot of history, and that will cause some teams to stay away from him come July.
     
    But Evander Kane undoubtedly bring offense with him wherever he goes. Yes, he doesn't score in the top 10 or 15 goal scorers, but he will consistently score goals for your hockey team.
     
    Since being traded to the lowly Buffalo Sabres before the 2015-16 season, Evander Kane has 75 goals, good for 36th in the NHL. That averages 25 goals per season, a very respectful number. This is same number of goals as T.J. Oshie over that span, and more than guys like Brandon Saad or Blake Wheeler. You can argue that Kane has a poor history as a teammate, but it cannot be argued he brings the offense. 
     
    On a Buffalo Sabres team the last three years, Kane actually had decent possession stats. He was third on the team over those three season with a 49.79% unblocked shot attempts percentage. That's better than solid two-way forward Ryan O'Reilly on the same team.
     
    I said that the Buffalo Sabres are a bad team. They currently sit in last place in the NHL this season. Last season, they finished 26th. The previous season, Kane's first with the team, Buffalo finished 23rd. The Sabres just haven't been good in several seasons.
     
    You might think that Kane has contributed to the struggles of the Sabres, but consider last place finish the season between Evander joined the team, and I don't think you can expect his presence to reduce his team's chances of winning too much. Kane also is second on the team in goals since joining the Sabres with 68 goals.
     
    There will be a market for Kane, even if some teams will shy away from a player with a questionable history. The question is who will be interested. The San Jose Sharks would definitely be interested in bringing back a scorer like Evander Kane. 
     
    Since joining the Sharks, Kane has 12 points in 12 games. He has seriously strengthened the Sharks offense since the trade deadline. Before the trade, the Sharks were averaging 2.83 goals/game. Since trading for Kane, that number is 4.17. He would obviously be a welcome contributor next season, especially if Joe Thornton returns next season.
     
    Other teams struggling for offense might be interested in Evander Kane. The Dallas Stars, who struggle mightally to get secondary scoring, might be an option. Teams like the New Jersey Devils or Los Angeles Kings might be interested in Kane's services.
     
    The market value for a player like Kane seems pretty simple to figure out. T.J. Oshie might be a good comparable. Oshie has 75 goals and 149 points in 217 games over the last three seasons. Kane has 75 goals and 130 points over that time. Oshie makes $5.750 million a season on a deal he signed over this past summer.
     
    T.J. Oshie was 31 when he signed that contract, but Evander Kane will be 27 to star t next season. That is likely to generate a little bit more cash for Kane, who should contribute more offensively over the next couple of years due to his youth and lack of mileage compared to Oshie.
     
    Scoring forwards Milan Lucic, Andrew Ladd, and Kyle Okposo might be better comparables. These forwards were closer to Kane when they signed long-term contracts in unrestricted free agency. These wingers are making between $5.500 and $6.000 million a season. This seems to be a good target for Evander Kane.
     
    I think you can be comfortable with around $6 million a season for a scoring winger like Evander Kane. I think the Sharks remain a strong contender to retain Kane's services, but don't be shocked if there are a number of different suitors this summer. Look for Kane to sign with a team in a smaller market so he can remain out of a lot of the NHL spotlight. I would image his days in a Canadian market are over.
     
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