Projecting Future Goalie Performance

[hf101]

I found these couple of blogs on a site called "hockey-graphs.com" on predicting goalie performance for the next 3 years rather interesting.

 "Projecting Future Goalie Performance: Updating and Improving Hockey Marcels"

 

Some of calculations for future goalie performance are based from this earlier blog  -  "How well do goalies age? A look at a goalie aging curve."

 

Whose main conclusions were:  

1.  Goalies don’t improve as they get older

2.  By age 30, goalie decline starts to get REALLY noticable

3.  By mid-30s, even with the aging line, goalies rapidly start to fall apart.

 

 

 

The Chart below projects performance over the next three years.  (have to do this in 2 parts)

 

 

The first SV% column is the Raw Marcel projection before any aging or regression.

The second SV% column are the Marcels after the regression.

The third SV% column, the one in bold, is the completed Marcel projections after including the effects of aging. 

The final column by the way details the amount of regression done on the #s of each player with the higher regression %s from smaller sample sizes.

 

 

 

In summary:

 

1.  Tuukka Rask is by far the leagues best goalie.  (TG I have him as my fantasy keeper

2.  Finding goalies in free agency to act as a multi-year starter is basically a losing play.

3.  The best way to obtain goalies is through development and early signings – the UFA market sucks for long term goalie stability due to aging.

[Samifan]

Tuukka Rask is by far the leagues best goalie.

HF- you realize you are going to be riling up a certain someone with this comment

[hf101]

Tuukka Rask is by far the leagues best goalie.

HF- you realize you are going to be riling up a certain someone with this comment

 

yes,     buyers beware!

 

Just think if this type of data were around years ago the Flyers may have actually tried to draft a few more goalies in the last 20 years.