Total Value Points Leaders: Toronto Maple Leafs 2014-2015 Season

[WordsOfWisdom]

There won't be much that changes from here on in. Therefore, here are the Toronto Maple Leafs sorted from best overall player to worst, for the 2014-2015 season, using "Total Value Points": An overall measure of the player's value to his team. In a way, it's the +/- stat you always wished you had. Well, now it's here.

 

TVP = Points - Defensive Errors

 

NOTE: TVP is not used for goalies.

 

NOTE: When DE version 2 is implemented next season, these values will be lowered significantly (because multiple players can be assigned a DE on each goal in v2).

 

 

 

 

Analysis

 

Despite his defensive warts, Kessel is still the MVP on Toronto, and the top line still does more to carry the load for this franchise than any other. 

 

Cody Franson was the Leafs best defenceman (overall), narrowly edging out Phaneuf.

 

Robidas, while solid defensively, contributes nothing offensively. Polak however, is at the bottom.

[Commander Clueless]

Analysis: 

 

 

 

Solution:  

[Commander Clueless]

Oh, and impressive work @WordsOfWisdom!

 

The only downside is that you put in a heck of an effort, when the Leafs certainly didn't.     

[WordsOfWisdom]

Oh, and impressive work @WordsOfWisdom!

 

The only downside is that you put in a heck of an effort, when the Leafs certainly didn't.     

 

For next season I'm going to make it so that the two match up equally. On every goal you can have 0, 1, or 2 assists. Beginning in the 2015-2016 season, DE v2 will be defined to have 1, 2, or 3 defensive errors on every goal allowed.

 

Then the TVP stat (Points - Defensive Errors) will balance perfectly and it will be possible to determine which players are helping or hurting the team (and by how much) based on TVP.

 

Plus, unlike Corsi and Fenwick, it will be an easy to read number for fans. Easy to understand. Easy to calculate. Familiar.

 

Ultimately, I'm hoping it will supplant Corsi, Fenwick, and +/- as the statistic of choice for overall player value. (At least until someone does a WAR stat for hockey, but I'm not a big fan of that stat because I have no idea what they put into it.) 

 

 

Insert Sales Pitch for Total Value Points (TVP):

 

TVP vs +/-

 

• TVP rewards players for ALL points accumulated, not just even strength and short-handed points. +/- doesn't increase with power-play points. How is that fair to the group of players that are without a doubt the best offensive players on the team?
• TVP punishes players for taking penalties that cost their team goals (if they are not offsetting penalties). +/- does not penalize players for taking penalties.
• TVP is a player-specific statistic, not a line-specific or team-specific statistic. TVP is not affected by the quality of your team or the quality of your linemates nearly as much as +/- is. The selective nature of TVP allows it to reward only the players responsible for their team's offence and to punish only the players responsible for their team's poor defence.

 

TVP vs Corsi/Fenwick

 

• TVP is more player-specific. Corsi/Fenwick are very line and team specific, just like +/-.
• TVP puts the focus on goals, not shots. Not all shots on goal are created equal. Goals are all that matters.
• TVP is easy to read, easy to understand, and easy to calculate. Corsi/Fenwick are not easy to interpret.

[WordsOfWisdom]

Heading into tonight's game:

 

 

Van Riemsdyk moves past Kessel into #1.

[WordsOfWisdom]

I made a slight alteration to the TVP formula for this season only:

 

From: Points - Defensive Errors

To: Points - (Defensive Errors x 2)

 

Next year I'm going to assign 1, 2, or 3 defensive errors on each goal (based on the situation) so it will create a proper balance between points and errors.

 

In any event, that's my update.