Sophomore Slump or Surge?

[ScottM]

It is no secret that one of the keys to the late season run that took the Senators to the playoffs last year was the emergence of several young players and their surprising contributions. Since we're halfway through the current season, we've seen enough to get a good feel for their performances To consider all of them in one post would be a major undertaking that would get quite lengthy, so I'm going to focus on the three "Calder eligible rookies" from last year's team. Every year, we hear about the dreaded "sophomore slump," so did these guys beat it or fall victim to it?

Mark Stone

I have to admit that I've been a bit down on Stone this season. A deeper look at the stats suggest that it is somewhat justified, though maybe not to the extent that I have been. Last season, he finished with 26 goals and 38 assists for 64 points in 80 games. He has missed two games this season, but if he plays in the remainder of the Sens' games, he would end up with 21 goals and 43 assists for... 64 points in 80 games.

The good news is that his point production hasn't fallen and that his playmaking seems to be a bit better. His takeaway/giveaway ratio is about the same, and once again, he's had an outstanding defensive season. While Ottawa has suffered a bit in advanced stats this season, Stone hasn't, and his Corsi stats are the same this season as last.

The bad news is that his goal scoring has fallen off a bit, and if anything, one would have expected it to increase. I came into the season thinking that there was a very real chance for him to get 30-35 goals, but unless he really breaks out in the second half, that's not going to happen. I knew he would get more ice time, and I hoped that would mean more goals, but he really isn't shooting any more than he did, and his shot percentage is down.

All in all, I wouldn't say Stone is in a true sophomore slump, but his season thus far has been a slight disappointment.

Mike Hoffman

If I've been down on Stone, I've been anything but on Hoffman. He has established himself as a true scoring threat, and has been among the league leaders in goals for quite some time now. In his rookie year, he managed 27 goals and 21 assists for 48 points in 79 games. There have been four games that he hasn't played in this season, but at his current pace, he would end up with 40 goals and 32 assists for 72 points in 78 games.

It's all good with Hoffman. Honestly, I looked for something negative to say to keep things balanced, but I'd have to nitpick to find it. For instance, his Corsi percentage is down a little, but that's more of a function of the team, I believe. Hoffman is never going to be a defensive specialist like Stone, but there has been improvement there. Last season, head coach Dave Cameron demoted him to the fourth line for a while because of his defensive mental lapses, but we've seen much less of that this season. I thought he could be a 35 goal guy, but he's outperforming that. He's always going to be a score first guy, but he's doing that very well, and he'll be able to command that big paycheck this coming offseason.

There's no doubt, Hoffman is in a sophomore surge.

Curtis Lazar

Lazar wasn't a huge offensive threat last season, but he had a very nice finish to the campaign. He earned a more regular spot in the lineup with his solid play, and has held on to it this season. Last season, he finished with six goals and nine assists for 15 points in 67 games, though again, that's weighted toward the end of the season. Having missed five games so far, he's on track for four goals and 12 assists for 16 points in 77 games.

To be perfetly honest, this is not what I had hoped for out of Lazar. I wasn't looking for a 20 goal season or anything, but I certainly hoped for some noticeable improvement. Despite his increase in games, his goal scoring has fallen, and while his playmaking has been better, overall his scoring pace has fallen. Beyond that, there is a sizable decrease in his Corsi stats. Again, yes, some of that can be chalked up to the team's play, but the drop has been large enough that I don't think that can explain it all.

Though he should slightly increase on his point production from last season, I don't see any growth from Lazar. I have to go sophomore slump here.

Can Hoffman keep up his performance to date, or will Stone and Lazar right the ship a bit? I think for the Senators to have continued success, we need to see a string of yes answers. Here's hoping we get them at season's end.

[ruxpin]

I've been down on Stone versus expectation coming into the season, but perhaps my expectations were too high.  His numbers, like you say, are all in the same ballpark as last year.  So, he hasn't taken a step back, really (maybe slightly, but maybe that's team) but certainly hasn't taken a step forward.  So, like you say, slight disappointment but I guess really only against expectation.

I agree about Hoffman completely.  What a nice surprise he's been.  

I think you were trying to focus on skaters, but a Senator's sophomore slump discussion otherwise has to include Hammond.  I don't think anyone thought he'd maintain last year's performance, but do you think some of his falloff has also been lack of regular playing time (and injuries early)?  He hasn't just been less than last year; he's been less than good.

[ScottM]

3 hours ago, ruxpin said:

I've been down on Stone versus expectation coming into the season, but perhaps my expectations were too high.  His numbers, like you say, are all in the same ballpark as last year.  So, he hasn't taken a step back, really (maybe slightly, but maybe that's team) but certainly hasn't taken a step forward.  So, like you say, slight disappointment but I guess really only against expectation.

I agree about Hoffman completely.  What a nice surprise he's been.  

I think you were trying to focus on skaters, but a Senator's sophomore slump discussion otherwise has to include Hammond.  I don't think anyone thought he'd maintain last year's performance, but do you think some of his falloff has also been lack of regular playing time (and injuries early)?  He hasn't just been less than last year; he's been less than good.

I almost included Hammond before I decided to go with the Calder eligible guys. Hammond was awful against the Caps the other night, but I think for the most part he's been pretty good. As you say, he hasn't been as good as last year, but I don't think anyone could have reasonably expected that. I for one still want to see what he can do if his playing time is increased. I find it a little hard to give a solid judgment no more than we've seen him.