Lightning (almost) strikes three times

[yave1964]

And then there were two.....

 

PRESEASON OUTLOOK Back to back championships, as usual in the cap era they were forced to move some valuable pieces out and replace them with cheaper younger players, losing grit guys like Goodrow, Gourde, Johnson and Coleman might set a lesser team back for a year or two but these are the Bolts. The core is still intact and they were hoping for a three peat.

 

FINAL RCORD 51-23-8 110 points 3rd in the Atlantic. They beat the Leafs in 7 in the opening round, swept the Cats out of Florida, stormed back after being down 2 games to none against the Rangers before bowing in six games to the Avalanche in the Stanley Cup finals.

 

HIGH POINT OF THE YEAR After beating the Wings 3-1 on March 6th and following that up but dispatching the Hawks 6-3 two days later they were sitting pretty at 37-12-6 in second place but within shouting distance of the Cats for first place. They were on a 16-4-1 tear and looking like world beaters.

 

LOW POINT OF THE YEAR They kind of slid into third place from there, going 14-11-2 down the stretch, they limped into third place and came close to being beaten out for third by the Bruins.

 

WHAT WENT RIGHT Stammer had a fantsstic bounceback year leading the tam with 106 points and 42 goals. Hedman continues his first ballot hall of fame career with possibly his best statistical season yet with 85 points in 82 games. Kucherov missed nearly half the year but scored 69 points in 47 games. Killorn and Palat did everything that Killorn and Palat always do, playing anywhere in the top nine they are needed and playing well. Point had a good year. Cirelli was IMHO the best defensive froward in hockey and contributed nicely on offense as well. Vasilevskiy had a great year, Elliot was a sounds solid backup. Ross Colton came from nowhere with 22 goals, Corey Perry signed on the cheap pitched in 19. Sergechev, Rutta and McDonough were fantastic and unsung in support roles on the back end. Nick Paul was a sound add for the third line.

 

WHAT WENT WRONG Point got hurt at the exact wrong time, Tampas go to guy in the postseason could not stay on the ice as they lost three one goal games in the finals with him off the ice. Bogosian is absolutely done. They paid a lot for Brandon Hagel and he did little this year to reward their faith. Cernak was unspectacular and Callan Foote did very little. Killorn went scoreless in the postseason and Point only managed 2 goals in 9 games after leading the league with 14 postseason goals in each of the previous two years. 

 

FREE AGENTS AND DRAFT PICKS Every year the Bolts lose one or two players in this cap crunch world, this year Palat and Nick Paul are free agents, probably one can be resigned but not both. Rutta is an UFA and might take a cheap deal to stay.  DRAFT PICKS, the Bolts have a first but no 2nd, 3rd this year and no first next year or the year after. 

 

TOP PROSPECTS Cole Koepke had a solid year for the Crunch and with a good preseason will win a bottom six role next year. Gabriel Fortier plays a sound defensive game as a forward but has little offense and is hopibg to stick on the 4th line. Gage Goncalves will be an injury fill-in among the forwards. The Bolts are high on Alex Barre Boulet they lost him to waivers and snagged him back at their first chance, he will get a chance to claim a bottom six spot but truth is I think he is a career AHLer who gets 10 NHL games every year- nothing more. If Rutta does not come back he will be adequately replaced by Sean Day. Truth is like most succesful teams the Bolts are thin on top end talent, a bunch of maybe's for the 4th line and a bottom pair defender is about all they have in the system who are ready now.

 

STRANGE STAT OF THE YEAR Alex Killorn had 25 regular season goals and was 4th on the team in scoring with 59 points. He wound up with zero goals in the playoffs in 23 games. He played in every single playoff game and was second behind Kucherov in ice time among forwards. He is the first player in HL history to score 25 goals or more in the regular season and follow that up with a big fat zero in the playoffs in more than 20 games in the postseason. 

 

OFFSEASON QUESTION MARKS Not as many as in years past but one of Nick Paul or longtime stalwart Palat will return at most, no way can they keep both. The decision is which one to pursue. The superstars are still performing at a high level, but Point/Kucherov are showing signs of breaking down. Can they remain healthy going forward? What to do with Cirelli who is the most underrated player in the game. He does everything well and is the best defensive forward in the game today, he has another year until free agency,to keep him and sign him long term Palat may have to go and there are even whispers that many in the organization like and trust him more than Point.

  The Bolts lost three one goal games in the finals includng two in overtime. They came oh so close to running their streak to 3 in a row and have no reason to hang their head. Compared to last year and several other years in recent past this offseason might be relatively smooth. Personally I would sign Cirelli long term and re-up Nick Paul who can play all three forward spots very well, and as painful as it might be I would let Palat walk as he is a one dimensional 31 year old, he will likely go for the payday, I would let someone else spend the money.

 

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

Good stuff as always, @yave1964, and as I do follow these guys, obviously, from NHL down to the AHL and even a touch of ECHL with the Orlando Solar Bears, I cannot really dispute any of your takes.
The ONLY one that seemed a bit out of place was Cernak under "What went wrong" and being "unspectacular"...but that's only because Cernak IS SUPPOSED to be unspectacular!  

He's big, he hits, he blocks shots (boy does he block shots....much to the chagrin of his medical insurance company who has to foot the bill for all that ails him!), he gets in people's faces.
He does all that well. It's all unspectacular work, but he does it gladly..... one of the best damned "throw ins" the Bolts have gotten in a trade, when they got Budaj to back up Vasilevskiy, and him for Ben Bishop in the trade from Los Angeles!

Callan Foote IS coming along, but he his progress has been slow. Slower than normal for even a big defenseman.
I fear his skating speed and agility have capped out and he is what he will be in that regard. Can still learn other areas (decision making, positional play, recognizing opportunities to shoot more), but I am getting the feeling if TB can get him somewhat attractive looking for another team who have abysmal defensemen, they should probably look to move him for maybe a 2nd or 3rd round pick or maybe an older defenseman (mid to late 20's?) who is more developed and can help the Bolts NOW.

It was no accident he was benched the rest of the way in the Finals when the Bolts needed speed, speed, and more speed to deal with Colorado, and Callan Foote simply could not keep up with the Avs.

And yes, for the first time in a long time, I was very disappointed in Alex Killorn's playoff performance, or more accurately, his LACK of performance.
Normally, he is the type of guy who is "meh" during the regular season, and wakes up in time for the playoffs....it's a running joke amongst some of us Bolts fans... "Killer? Oh yea...he sleeps for 70 games out of 82, but don't worry, he has his alarm set for Spring and the playoffs!"
Not this season, and it may have been the difference between the Bolts bowing out in 6 and the Bolts pushing for a Game 7, or even being the ones who actually won.
The Bolts simply could not afford Killer to be a no-show in the post season, especially being without Brayden Point.

Nick Paul or Ondrej Palat...I can't decide which I would rather keep if it came down to only one. They each have things in their favor..... Paul is versatile, younger, bigger, and is probably underrated as an offensive player.
Palat is experience, he knows the team inside out as he came up with many of the guys on the team, isn't afraid to hit, be hit, never complains no matter where you put him, and like Killorn (except this season for Killer), is usually money in the playoffs.

Maybe I can use some of my blondie ju-ju magic to have each guy take 2.5M (almost double pay for Paul, but for Palat, would be half pay) to stay on and play with a winner!
Won't happen, but I can work the magic powder to try and make is so, right?  

No matter what happens, I trust in Julien Brisebois and his staff, and the Bolts SHOULD be back in the Stanley Cup conversation, albeit probably a more crowded one with other improved teams, come next season!

[yave1964]

@TropicalFruitGirl26

 

Cernak, here is my problem with him. He has settled into a selfless player who allows others to carry the puck, he seldom scores, like you mentioned he does all the little things. Every team needs guys like him. 

  My problem is IMHO I think the offense is there and his selfless play is actually hurting him, he carries the puck well when he does but he usually is content to get it out of the zone and let the other four go up ice. It works, it works very well but I still think there is more there. Every year he winds up with 3 goals and 18 points. I see that big chisselled guy and see 10 goals, 40 points and he never comes close. It is probably me, he doesnt have to rush the play, Hedman, McDonogh and Sergechev do very well in that regard but I still feel Cernak has not reached his potential offensively and is content to just be a solid stay at hme guy. 

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

31 minutes ago, yave1964 said:

@TropicalFruitGirl26

 

Cernak, here is my problem with him. He has settled into a selfless player who allows others to carry the puck, he seldom scores, like you mentioned he does all the little things. Every team needs guys like him. 

  My problem is IMHO I think the offense is there and his selfless play is actually hurting him, he carries the puck well when he does but he usually is content to get it out of the zone and let the other four go up ice. It works, it works very well but I still think there is more there. Every year he winds up with 3 goals and 18 points. I see that big chisselled guy and see 10 goals, 40 points and he never comes close. It is probably me, he doesnt have to rush the play, Hedman, McDonogh and Sergechev do very well in that regard but I still feel Cernak has not reached his potential offensively and is content to just be a solid stay at hme guy. 

 

Hmm...I never viewed Cernak as a offensive type guy, but he DOES tend to break loose more often than I would have thought.
Perhaps the coaches can get him to do more with the puck, like you said, instead of deferring to someone else on the ice?

That would be interesting...although they MIGHT wanna do some drills with him where he works on his accuracy... "wide left" doesn't even begin to cover it when he does let loose a bomb as he rushes  

When I was still a kiddie learning about this great sport of hockey, there was a guy on the Canadiens, then later with the Devils whom Erik Cernak reminds me of... Lyle Odelein.
Big, tough, nasty highly defensive oriented type...BUT, when he wanted to, could contribute on offense as well.

I think Cernak is a better skater than what I recall from Odelein, but (and I had to look up the numbers to be sure), Lyle, at around Cernak's age now (25) did hit that 40 point mark you mentioned, broke 30 on another occasion, had a few 25'ish point seasons, but was otherwise, like Cernak is now, firmly in the teens with overall points.

Maybe if Cernak releases his inner Odelein, he can hit 30 or 40 more often as he DOES seem to be a better skater.