Flyers zone entry data by Eric.T

[jammer2]

  Eric.T takes an in depth look at the Flyers zone entry stats, pretty interesting conclusions. Thought some might find it interesting. Eric did a great research job here....

 

 http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/9/16/4733706/philadelphia-flyers-zone-entry-data-oh-the-humanity

[pilldoc]

@jammer2

 

Great article. Thanks for sharing.  Just a few thoughts as I read it.  He made a statement about carrying the puck into the offensive zone and dumping it it.  IMO, the Flyers, traditionally,  have been more of a dump and chase type team.  I always thought that by playing the dump and chase, they could beat the opponent to the puck and set up their offense that way.  It was interesting to see the stats for both JVR and Jagr.  I did not fully realize how much they carried the puck in.  So what type of offensive philosophy is better? Dump and chase or carrying it in? Or does it really depend on the make up of your team.  The more skilled players you have, one would think the more of a carrying the puck in would work.  The bigger players you might have, i.e Lindros, you could use a dump and chase since Lindros could get into the offensive zone and because of his size he could control the puck. 

 

In regard to his mentioning of dump ins, the only flaw I might see in his data gathering is differentiating the need to dump the puck in as an offensive chance to gain the zone vs. the need to dump the puck in because you want to make a line change.  The latter instance does not necessarily mean you want to go on the offensive at that point so could that potentially skewer the data?

 

In regard to personnel, I like the comparison in how both B. Schenn and Coots improved their % of carrying the puck into the zone.  Can we be optimistic and see Coots improve even more.

I was shocked to see how much Read regressed from the previous year. (59% to 47%) a (-)13% drop off.  Could that be attributed to just a bad blue line corps the team had last year.  Statistically, Rinaldo had the biggest drop of all of them. (49% to 23%) a (-)26% drop off.

 

Another interesting thing that pops out to me is that in 2011-2012 season, the Flyers had 5 players carrying the puck in greater that 60% of the time. (Almost 6 players with Read at 59%).  In the 2012-2013 strike shortened season that number drops to 1 with Giroux at 65%.  Voracek is a close 2nd at 59%.  With Briere now out of the equation, who is gonna need to step up? Read / Couturier?

 

So did the Flyers change offensive philosophy last year?  The numbers say that in 2011-12 they had more players carrying the puck in instead of dumping it in.  Last year it seems like more players where dumping it in instead of carrying it in.  If you don't beat the other team to the puck when you dump it in, then the other team gains possession quicker and has the opportunity to breakout and get their transition game going.  That is where the Flyers really struggled last year, during their transition game.  You add in the injuries to the blue line and sub-par goaltending....well that is just a recipe for disaster.

 

His article references another journal article.  The conclusions the author made are pretty insightful. I will post it here:

 

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/Using%20Zone%20Entry%20Data%20To%20Separate%20Offensive,%20Neutral,%20And%20Defensive%20Zone%20Performance.pdf

 

Breaking the game into discrete offensive, neutral, and defensive zone possessions has permitted a detailed

understanding of what drives success. It is found that talent for driving shot differential derives almost entirely from

neutral zone play and that attack zone talent is largely confined to shot quality effects. Some strategic inefficiencies

have been identified, both in lineup construction and in aggressiveness on zone entry attempts

 

Last year I think the Flyers had marginal neutral zone play and the quality of their shots where sub-par.  We all saw that as we discussed in during in-chat game discussions.

 

Last point, does this prove how much the Flyers missed JVR / Jagr?

 

Interesting article @jammer2.  Thanks for sharing. I'm really interested what others think.

Edited September 21, 2013 by pilldoc

[jammer2]

@pilldoc  Yeah, I thought that Eric guy did a great job on his research. In general, it's way more controlled to carry the puck in rather than the dump in. Way less variables to deal with. These stats can be a bit misleading because teams will frequently target different d-men and throw it to his corner on purpose to punish the specific d-men. How about the gigantic drop off in Rinaldo's zone entry stats, wow, he dropped off a cliff there, and he was not good to begin with!