WordsOfWisdom

At the end of the day, the NHL is going to do what it's going to do. They probably will choose Houston as their next destination. The NHL has made it very clear with their expansion/relocation decisions (Panthers, Coyotes, Thrashers, etc.) that they're not interested in putting hockey teams in proven hockey markets where they can draw money. The NHL is interested in putting hockey teams in non-hockey markets with the dream of creating a new hockey market where none exists. They're always chasing the dream at the expense of existing fans. Almost like the NHL tries to punish Canadian hockey fans for their support. 

If it were up to me (and we know it isn't), my business policy would be to tap into all of the proven hockey markets first, and exhaust all avenues for revenue in the areas where the game is strongest before seeking new markets. Exactly the opposite of what the NHL is doing. Expansion would be a careful decision and there would need to be at least some fan interest present (a well supported minor league hockey team present for example) before such a decision would be made.

People can say: "well, the NHL is a multi-billion dollar industry, so clearly they know what they're doing and you don't"..... whereas I would say: "the NHL is dead last by a mile among the major pro sports leagues so clearly they don't know what they're doing.... otherwise they wouldn't be dead last". So it's the glass half full/empty thing again.  Is a league successful because it makes billions or is it a failure because it makes 2 billion while other leagues make 10 billion? I guess it depends what you use as a measuring stick and who you compare yourself to. No other pro sports league pushes to have franchises in locations where fan interest is minimal or non-existent.

MLB has two franchises in New York, Chicago, and LA.  The NHL has two franchises in New York. It should have two franchises in Toronto and Montreal. The idea of Hamilton or Quebec City having an NHL franchise isn't a pipe dream. Hamilton taps into a huge southern Ontario market that is the richest in hockey. Hamilton would become a powerhouse NHL franchise like Toronto, and I think that's what Bettman fears. I think Bettman has tried to remove the game from Canada during his tenure as NHL commissioner. Under his administration, Canada went from having 1/3 of the teams (8/24) to having less than 1/4 (7/32) of the teams. He also moved NHL headquarters from Toronto to New York. I think deep down inside, Bettman doesn't want to give any more power to the Canadian NHL franchises than they already have. I think it's a personal vendetta for him. In 30 years, Bettman has done nothing to expand the game in Canada. It has been total stagnation or regression.

And let's not forget that the Oilers wouldn't exist if not for the WHA. Neither would the Canucks, Nordiques, or Jets. The NHL has made it their policy to ignore Canada, and it took a rival hockey league going head to head with them to finally get them to wake up.

7 hours ago, radoran said:

Teams in a market of multi millions of people are more valuable than teams in markets of hundreds of thousands.

So the Toronto Blue Jays are worth more than the Boston Red Sox?  (mic drop)  

From Google search:

Boston: ~685,000 population

Toronto: ~2.93 million population

Should we relocate the Boston Red Sox from their "podunk" US town into Montreal? 

Montreal: ~1.78 million population

That's the logic you are using right now.  I know what you're saying but I'm trying to explain to you (kindly) why your thinking is wrong.

You're basically sitting on a financial "egg" that will never hatch. 

It's also worth mentioning that Hamilton has 580,000 people, roughly the same size as podunk town Boston (home of the Red Sox, Bruins, etc.). In other words, there is precedent that a city the size of Hamilton (like Boston for example) can be enormously successful in any pro sports league.

(I'd drop the mic again but I already dropped it.)

4 hours ago, radoran said:

In terms of franchise value, Montreal and Tronno are 2 & 3, EDM is 7, and then Canadian teams are ranked: 14 (VAN), 18 (CAL), 26 (WPG), and 28 (OTT). Edmonton doubled in value with their new arena.

Franchise "value" is a subjective figure. It's also wildly inaccurate. The team is worth what someone will pay for it. More accurately, the team is worth the sum total of all the players it currently has plus the value of the brand itself. The fact that American owners don't want to own teams in Canada has nothing to do with their ability to make money and everything to do with the owner's vanity/homer-ism/tax dodging efforts/whatever it may be. So it hurts the "value" of the Canadian teams somewhat to be in Canada but doesn't hurt the business.

It's no different than real-estate. An average home in America is currently valued at $250,000.  An average home in Canada is currently valued at $750,000. So, Canada is the winner right? Canadian homes are more "valuable" therefore Canadian homes are better?

All that truly matters with a business is net income.  Revenue - Expenses. That's it. 

Plus, I think I mentioned this previously (maybe on another forum) but Toronto is the #1 most valuable franchise in the NHL. Always has been. The New York Rangers aren't even close. Why? Because the Rangers don't get to count MSG towards the value of the Rangers, even if it's all owned by the same ownership group. It's irrelevant. The team is a separate business entity from the venue they play in. Otherwise I'll take MSG revenue and add that to the Toronto Maple Leafs while giving ACC revenue to the New York Rangers and then we'll see how the two teams stack up in "value".

Bottom line: The MSG venue runs more non-hockey related shows and draws more money than the ACC does. That has nothing to do with hockey and therefore none of that revenue and none of that "value" is hockey-related and therefore doesn't count in this analysis. 

Also, none of the revenue figures for the past two years are valid as Canadian teams are in lockdown. You would have to look at data from 2019 or earlier.

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2 minutes ago, Math said:

Another drawback of QC City that I haven't mentioned yet is the arena location: not as bad as Ottawa but still mediocre.

 

When the QC gov't and the city council had the dumb idea to build the new arena next to the old Colisée, they didn't think about transportation and close markets. In tact it's a terrible geolocalisation. The arena is in the middle of a no-man's land, next to a crumbling mall that doesn't drive people anymore, the highway is next but there's no direct exit, there's no direct connections with public transportation (the closest bus stop is by 10-15 mn on foot, imagine walking there at -30° and wait another 20 mn for the bus), all parking lot entries are linked to local streets that are immediately jammed after a game (I experienced that for Remparts game with attendance of 10k, il was already a nightmare). There's no restaurants and no shops nearby. The overall location sucks. On the other side, I was difficult to put an arena elsewhere but I still think that much better could have been done.

Ottawa's arena location is ridiculous.  It's so far outside of Ottawa that it actually catches you off-guard if you ever drive to Ottawa. You'll be driving along in the middle of nowhere and suddenly there's a building and a parking lot. As you drive by and see the signage you realize "oh... that's where the Sens play... how strange". 

Restaurants and other businesses would open up IF there was an NHL team there.  Strong businesses help fuel other small businesses.  Plus, I'm sure they could build an exit on the highway and deal with bus routes IF they have reason to. All of those are minor issues that be quickly solved if the city has a good reason to. 

5 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

There are 4.85M people in the Phoenix Metro. 6+M in Greater Houston.

 

There are 800K in Quebec City. 763K in Hamilton.

 

And the American dollar is worth 1.25 to the Canadian dollar.

 

Tampa Bay is the #1 attendance leader in the NHL today. Vegas is 6th.

 

There's more actual money in either Houston or Phoenix than in either Quebec City or Hamilton.

Attendance != Revenue

Ticket prices x Attendance = Revenue

I think Houston would be another colossal mistake just like Phoenix was. All you would have is another NHL team in a large US city that gets no fan or media attention and that generates no serious revenue. The reason the NHL doesn't want to relocate is because they know it'll flop in Houston too. If Houston was such a viable hockey market the NHL would have been there 20 years ago already. Even the league knows it's a dud. 

Despite the currency exchange rate and the smaller population, the richest NHL franchises are always in Canada, and even the "weakest" Canadian franchises are still top 15 in the NHL. You can't lose in Canada when it comes to hockey. 

1 hour ago, Math said:

One argument in favor of Houston is a new rivalry with Dallas. But the Stars don't see that way and are not really for it: smelling the move, they put their alternative Texas logo on the middle ice, on the website, and changes their twitter account name to @TexasHockey. Bum Phillips would say: "They may be America's team, but we're Texas' team"

 

That's because the Stars recognize that their fanbase is small and splitting it with another team would kill both franchises.

Sooner or later the NHL will need to accept reality:

• There is no correlation between the population of a city and the number of NHL hockey fans it has.
• Teams run on actual revenue, not potential revenue. 
• Hamilton and Quebec City are the best locations where fans would pay real top dollar to watch hockey.
• National TV contracts aren't worth anything if your product is one of the freebies/thrown-ins in that lineup and gets dropped soon after.
• Canadian TV contracts pay more money for hockey.

1 hour ago, radoran said:

 

The whole concept is the national TV contract. It's why the NFL isn't a gate driven league.

 

You want to make your product as appealing to as wide a swath of advertisers as possible.

 

At this point Houston is in the USA while Tokyo, Mexico City, and Jakarta are not.

I know I was just being funny.  

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1 hour ago, radoran said:

 

There is FAR more potential money in Phoenix or Houston than there is in Quebec City or Hamilton.

I agree, but businesses don't run on "potential" money. They run on actual money.

Putting a team in Quebec City or Hamilton would be more profitable both now and in the future. The only reason the idea of Phoenix or Houston would be entertained is as a charity/non-profit organization or because the NHL is subsidizing it heavily with their revenue sharing money. Otherwise no businessman would invest in a hockey franchise in either of those locations. It's just bad business.

If you run a home air conditioning business, you don't go to Alaska, Yukon, or the Northwest Territories looking for customers.  

On 8/20/2021 at 2:25 PM, radoran said:

All that said, Houston makes the most sense. League actually gains in total metro size exchanging Phoenix metro for Greater Houston.

If it's just about population, then Mexico City makes the most sense.  

Why not Tokyo? Jakarta?  Delhi?  You gain way more population in Tokyo than you do in Houston. 

On 8/8/2021 at 2:32 PM, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

 

I know, I know...

Dried up AZ legislation, dried up ownership, dried up front office, and players with a dried up sense of competitiveness.....which leaves the seats dried up!  

It's probably hard for players to be motivated to give 100% effort in front of an empty building, especially if you know nobody is watching at home either. 

(At least it would be for me.)

What I'd like to know is why US teams get this much effort put into saving them, and this many chances to succeed with so many new owners, but a struggling Canadian team (struggling only because of the exchange rate on the dollar, not a lack of attendance) is stolen away from the city faster than merchandise at a San Jose jewelry store.

Side note: I want more LIKES. 

If someone calculates "new" sports statistics, or compiles statistical information in a meaningful way, would people pay money for access to it?

The reason I ask is because I don't know what the legalities are surrounding the use of statistics in sports. We all throw around statistics here and generally accept that they're freely accessible and public knowledge but who tracks a stat like Corsi/Fenwick for example?  The NHL or a 3rd party organization? Who supplies NHL statistics to sites like HockeyReference.com?

7 minutes ago, Brewin Flames said:

 

 

Exactly the reason why i think the site site...lots of info, which is good, but the constant forum change and adds drag it down, not to mention my first few posts there way back when were met with ridicule and harassment for having an opinion or comment that differs from the majority.

What really irks me is that there are some good people there.  I don't mind having a debate with people on hockey topics but the moment a moderator enters the debate and takes the opposing point of view, consider yourself blocked. It's over. They immediately silence people as a tool to win whatever hockey argument they're having. 

Here's an example of how life at HFBoards goes, and this is not an exaggeration:

User: "Crosby is a better all around player than Ovie."

Mod: "Nobody will remember Crosby in 20 years. Ovie is light years ahead of him. Only a fool would think otherwise."

User: "You're calling me a fool? You're entitled to your opinion, but Crosby has the Stanley Cups and the Olympic gold to prove how good he is."

Mod: "You've received xx warning points. Infraction: Name calling. Attacking a moderator. Suspension: permanent"

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(the end)

On 1/8/2022 at 2:06 PM, GybonB said:

Hi. Newbie (rookie) here.

 

| I'm still a vacant member at the HFBoards, so i haven't completely left that place.

- man that is so toxic place these days, staff bullies members and vice versa, fans bully fans,

and the advertisement bombardment and the ever changing rules... that place has grown too large |

I went back to HFBoards again for a few weeks (wanted more Leafs chat and activity) but got banned for the second time today (lol).... for the same reason as last time: having an opinion different from that of a moderator. I didn't break any forum rules but they just banned me to silence me. So I see nothing has changed there. It's still the sh_thole I remember it being. It's an absolute crime that they have so many users there. I'm wondering how many are really just re-opened accounts from banned users?

Example: If they say they have 1,000,000 users, I'm guessing over 900,000 of those are dead/banned accounts and the same people keep creating new accounts to get around the obscene and petty moderation.   

22 hours ago, radoran said:

Zero playoff round wins.

 

Individual performance doesn't matter.

 

If your team doesn't win, you lost.

Well you can't win if your players don't perform, so the performance of all 20 individuals on that roster matters a great deal!     

17 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 

In other news, Chuck Fletcher isn't a very good GM.

 

I don't think either of these are much of a secret.

True, but now it's quantifiable. 

I went ahead and did the stats for Toronto's Big-3:

Merry Christmas to all.  Stay away from parades and watch out for hoodrats!   

Is Auston Matthews a playoff performer or not?  Here is the data using CLUTCH:

Matthews was evaluated based on goals, assists, points, faceoff winning %, and his Corsi For %.  Thus, he was evaluated on every key facet of the game.

As we can see from the data above (CLUTCH figures below 1.000 in almost every category), Matthews has yet to prove that he's a playoff performer. His offensive production drops significantly in the playoffs most years.

The last performance tier/level for Matthews to obtain now is that of a superstar in the playoffs. The regular season numbers are fantastic, but he'll never be in the same conversation as other NHL legends until he can get it done in the playoffs.

18 hours ago, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

 

Meh...Headlines SHOULD read:

"Lightning's bid for three-peat hits Covid snag" 

That's the bigger story.

Winning 3 in a row would be amazing but winning 1 for the first time in 50+ years is going to be the bigger story. Think of what it was like for Chicago and New York for example. Much bigger celebration for the first one than if you repeat immediately afterwards. 

19 hours ago, SaucyJack said:

Perhaps the IOC will do another Tokyo as Omicron worsens and reschedule the Games of Xi Zinping for Feb 2023?

I hope not.  This virus is all China's fault to begin with. Nothing about how they operate is legit. They don't deserve a second chance. 

23 hours ago, Math said:

I was thinking the Stars' 2020, but I got only 1.039 according to your clutch score (I was expecting more). Maybe we should try the Devils and Kings as they qualified as the #8 seed I think.

1995 New Jersey Devils were a middle of the pack team, but they really turned it up a notch in the playoffs:

Regular season: 22-18-8  --------> 22/40 =  0.550

Playoffs: 16/20 -------------------------> = 0.800

Clutch = 0.800 / 0.550 = 1.454

Here we go again.  I can already see the future headlines:

• Toronto lockdown cancels Cup parade
• Best season in Leafs history lasts 20 games
• Matthews retires with highest GPG in NHL history and not one 50-goal season

I'm glad the NHL isn't going to China, but I'm angry that they're not going for the wrong reasons. 

They should have taken a stand and withdrew because it was the right thing to do.  Instead, covid did it for them. 

On 11/21/2021 at 10:25 AM, WordsOfWisdom said:

Not sure how it could be done for skaters.

I thought about this for a bit and now I know how it could be done for skaters:

Take any stat you want (G, A, PTS, +/-, PIM, CORSI, etc.) and we compare regular season to playoff performance. Just that easy.

Example:

For CORSI, it would be the CLUTCH stat applied directly to CORSI (since it's already a percentage).  

For GOALS, we'll do GPG (to get a rate) and apply the CLUTCH stat to the GPG.

(One could also do GPTOI if you prefer using TOI rather than GP.)

Basically, I figured it out. Stay tuned for more spreadsheets (lol).