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pilldoc

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    belowthegoalline

    Posted · Edited by pilldoc

    @belowthegoalline

     

    Totally agree with @jammer2 ... what a great write.  Since I enjoy fantasy hockey, the Knights are going to be a very interesting topic come this off-season with regards to hockey metrics.  I have few thoughts that fall in line with the gist of your post.  I posted this very same comment in our FHL thread when I traded MAF for Seguin.

     

     

    TRADE ALERT ......

     

    In a next to last day before the Trade Deadline The Ice Pigs announce the following trade:

     

    To The Ice Pigs: Muzzin (D) / Seguin (C,RW)/ Raanta (G)

    To Foil: Krug (D) / MAF (G)

     

    I agonized over this deal going back and forth.  I know I have had other offers for MAF.  In the end the deciding factor was I was only giving up one (1)  Keeper and not two (2).  Adding  Seguin gives me another stud forward.  I really hated to part with MAF but in the end this was what I think was what's best for my team moving forward.

     

    It was tough moving MAF since he has done an amazing job in Vegas.  However, many of their Forwards have had higher than normal SH%. 

     

    1.) Fleury's PKSV% is a little on the high side. So he's getting a little boost from luck there. Nothing to be terribly concerned about (about .898 vs. .875 league average).

    2.) Fleury's EVSV% is about 8-10 points higher than his recent (very good) seasons. He's at .933 vs. .924-ish.

    3.) Fleury's numbers this season are a small sample size. He's had just 31 starts (because of injury). You'd expect him to hit 60-65 in a typical full season.

    4.) Vegas has a handful of skaters with unusually high shooting percentages. I calculated, just earlier today, that William Karlsson's shooting percentage has boosted Vegas in the standings by six points. James Neal's SH% adds another two standings points. That's four wins due to entirely to luck from just two players. You can keep going down the line here... Smith, Perron, and Haula, at their current goal scoring rates, provide an extra 15 goals or so (which equates to 2.5 extra wins via luck).  (Info based on an article I read)

     

    5.) I expect Vegas to regress a bit next year. Fleury's individual numbers (SV% and GAA) are a bit inflated and I believe they will regress next season. His rate of Wins should drop next season as a handful of Vegas skaters see their shooting percentages come back down to Earth.

     

    Anyway ..great write up. :)

    ScottM

    Posted

    @ScottM

    What a great article Scott.  I remember when the incident frst occurred.  What a tragic story.  Often one forgets what the players go through when an incident such as this occurs. Having children of my own, I can't even begin to fathom how I would react had this happned to my family.

     

    What a tragic story for both the family and player.  Makes you sit back and realize how precious life really is.

     

    Thank you for this very touching story.

    ScottM

    Posted

    @ScottM

     

    Great article.  Thanks for sharing.  I remember those days in the early 80's.  I often wonder what type of career Tretiak would have had, had he be given the chance to play in the NHL.  Several years ago, i had the oppurtunity to meet Tretiak.  Very nice gentleman.  to this day he still has no idea why he was pulled in the Olympic game vs. USA.  Again great article.

     

    thanks!

    icedog97

    Posted

    Great article, though I will argue 1 point. Forgive me for my homerism here for a bit. The Flyers series last year was a 4/5 matchup. In my mind I thought the Flyers matched up pretty well with the Pens. Our biggest question mark was in goalies. (well it still is a major ???? for us)

    the Flyers last year during the regular season showed that they can hang with the Pens and beat the Pens. (The Flyers for some strange reason, still own you guys in your new barn).

    I know there were some experts that had the Flyers beating the Pens last year. IF anything, the Flyers gave a nice tidy blueprint in how to beat the Pens during the Playoffs. The Isles had some muscle and grit the Sens had none. Now you run into a Bruins team that will not only shove back, but shove back hard. The Pens have a notion to getting caught of in the emotion.

    In answer to your original question, I will be shocked if the Pens do lose in 4 or 5 game and Blysma is back behind the bench next year. This type of ousting will not sit well with upper Pens management.

    Sounds like you guys could have a very interesting off season........

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