Does Scott Cullen Even Watch Hockey?

[ruxpin]

From his article on TSN (it's from the 3/8, but I just now saw it)

 

http://www.tsn.ca/blogs/scott_cullen/?id=445599

 

 

CULLEN: THREE QUARTER NHL AWARDS

 

With the trade deadline passed and the stretch run to the NHL season beginning, it's time for Scott Cullen's latest update to the NHL Awards races.

On one hand, there are familiar names throughout, with previous Hart, Norris, Selke and Jack Adams winners named as best through three quarters of this season.

However, as we get more games in the file, the leading candidates begin to separate from the rest of the class. It's not to say that others can't mount a strong finish to alter the outcomes, but as the season gets closer to the end, there isn't as much wiggle room.

Anyway, here are my picks for awards through first three quarters of this season:

 

HART TROPHY
Winner: Sidney Crosby, C, Pittsburgh
Runners-up: Ryan Getzlaf, C, Anaheim; Alex Ovechkin, RW, Washington

Comment: It's no surprise that a healthy Crosby is in position to win the award as the league's Most Valuable Player, because he's 14 points up in the scoring race and playing at the level to which we've become accustomed, when he's in the lineup. This year, he hasn't missed a game, and that is the biggest reason that Crosby at the forefront of the MVP discussion.

Getzlaf is scoring at a career-best rate of 1.17 points per game, leading the team that sits on top of the standings. While his possession numbers are solid, Getzlaf's line has been particularly fortunate in terms of shooting percentage, which leads to a dominant goal differential (57 for, 25 against) when Getzlaf is on the ice during 5-on-5 play. It's not the kind of thing that can be sustained long-term (as in year-over-year) but, this year, it puts him in contention for the Hart.

I recognize there may not be a lot of observers that would consider Ovechkin among the most valuable in the league this year, yet I do despite his deficiencies. Hhe's so far ahead of the rest of the league as a goal-scorer, that I can't ignore that contribution.

Right now, Ovechkin is on pace for a 57-goal season. Second-place Phil Kessel is on pace for a 42-goal season. The last player to win the goal-scoring race by 15 goals or more was Brett Hull, in 1991-1992, when Hull scored 70 and Kevin Stevens scored 54. (Incidentally, in 1990-1991, Hull scored 86 goals, 35 more than a trio of players -- Theo Fleury, Cam Neely and Steve Yzerman -- tied for second.) It's just not that often that the league's top goal-scorer is that far ahead of the field and, this year, Ovechkin is. Additionally, while he does plenty of damage on the power play, Ovechkin also leads the league with 26 even-strength goals, so it's not all one-timers from the faceoff dot with the man advantage.

Looking beyond those three, Kessel, Joe Pavelski and Jonathan Toews are among others who could warrant consideration.

 

 

NORRIS TROPHY
Winner: Duncan Keith, Chicago
Runners-up: Erik Karlsson, Ottawa; Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay

Comment: This season hasn't been all that different from Duncan Keith's 2010 Norris Trophy-winning campaign. He's played his typically-strong two-way game, though he is down more than three minutes per game compared to his peak playing time, and has added more offence this season, scoring at the second-best rate of his carerr (0.79 points per game).

There are some that decry the play of the Senators' Erik Karlsson, because he's not a hard-hitting block of granite on the blueline and that's their vision of a defenceman, but Karlsson is a game-changer. He's a rare defenceman that can drive his team's offence and his negative plus-minus is more a function of relatively bad luck on percentages (both shooting and save) when he's on the ice.

After Keith and Karlsson, there are a number of worthy candidates, with my preferred choice being Victor Hedman, who has been great, while adding an offensive component that is far ahead of his previously established levels. I'm not sure that Team Sweden is on board with this vote, but that's their prerogative.

Some familiar names -- Shea Weber, P.K. Subban and Alex Pietrangelo -- are also viable candidates, close enough that a really strong finish could alter the outcome.

 

 

VEZINA TROPHY
Winner: Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay
Runners-up: Tuukka Rask, Boston; Semyon Varlamov, Colorado

Comment: As a 27-year-old who had played 45 career games coming into this season, Bishop has been a major surprise, a rock for a Lightning team that has maintained its playoff position despite missing Steven Stamkos for a couple of months.

Rask has pretty much always been a top puck-stopper, with a .929 save percentage over the past three seasons, and he's played a career-high 46 games this year, handling a number one workload over a full season for, really, the first time in his career.

It hasn't been a smooth and steady road to the top for Varlamov, who has rebounded from a career-low .903 save percentage last season to post a career-best .925 save percentage this season. That might be a matter of arbitrary end-points, with Varlamov's real performance level somewhere between those two extremes but, for this season, his numbers warrant award consideration.

If not Varlamov, Carey Price and Jonathan Bernier have both had strong seasons, strong enough that an impressive finish could push them into the discussion.

 

 

CALDER TROPHY
Winner: Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colorado
Runners-up: Tyler Johnson, C, Tampa Bay; Olli Maatta, Pittsburgh

Comment: Having set the record for the longest point streak by an 18-year-old rookie, MacKinnon is already looking like the kind of game-breaking skilled forward that teams hope to get with the No. 1 pick in the draft. Nothing like having a great pedigree and living up to it.

MacKinnon's closest challenger may be Johnson, an undrafted, 5-foot-9, 23-year-old who has simply scored wherever he's played and when Stamkos got hurt, Johnson took on more responsibility and continued to play at a high level.

It's not easy for a teenage defenceman to step into the NHL and consistently play with poise, but don't tell that to Maatta, who has been a revelation for the Penguins. Injuries on the Pittsburgh blueline have forced the Penguins to use Maatta more than might have been initially anticipated, but he's risen to the challenge.

Bruins power play quarterback Torey Krug and Johnson's left winger, Ondrej Palat, are other contenders.

 

 

SELKE AWARD
Winner: Patrice Bergeron, Boston
Runners-up: David Backes, St. Louis; Jonathan Toews, Chicago

Comment: This isn't an easy award to hand out, though there are some consistent performers that tend to be in consideration year after year. Here's a list of centres that face a decent level of competition yet still have strong possession stats. In addition to Bergeron, Backes and Toews, who have been at the top of my lists for past couple seasons at least, Anze Kopitar, Gabriel Landeskog and Alexander Steen are first-rate two-way performers that warrant attention.

 

 

JACK ADAMS AWARD
Winner: Bruce Boudreau, Anaheim
Runners-up: Ken Hitchcock, St. Louis; Jon Cooper, Tampa Bay.

Comment: It can be difficult to gauge exactly what a coach's role is in a team's performance, so there is some guess work involved here. One of the factors I try to take out of the equation, or at least minimize in importance, is goaltending, because great goaltending can mask all manner of shortcomings.

Anyway, I'm not sure that Bruce Boudreau has done anything revolutionary with the Ducks that allows them to score on such a high percentage of their shots, but getting strong contributions from so many throughout the lineup has to be considered in some way a reflection of Boudreau's approach. Oh, yeah, the Ducks are also first place in the standings, so he has that working for him too.

The St. Louis Blues play such a relentless, grinding game that I'm inclined to credit a coach that can keep his team playing that style so effectively. Enter, Ken Hitchcock.

Admittedly, Jon Cooper has the benefit of outstanding goaltending, thanks to Ben Bishop, but his team has survived without Steven Stamkos and has done so with a lineup full of young, inexperienced players playing significant roles. For that, Cooper gets my nomination.

There are many other qualified candidates. Patrick Roy's Avalanche are exceeding expectations, Mike Yeo and Mike Babcock have managed to get through significant injuries and Claude Julien keeps the Bruins rolling with a steady spproach; all of these coaches deserve credit for their work behind the bench this season.

 

======

Hart Trophy:  We discussed this elsewhere.  Crosby, for my money, is a no-brainer.  So yay, Cullen got the no-brainer right.   But how do you not even have Giroux in the "honorable mentions?"    It's not possible if you're actually watching or paying attention in any way.

 

Norris Trophy:  Again, I have no problem with Keith as the selection, although I could argue otherwise.  I hate the guy, but how do you not even mention Chara let alone not have him among the finalists?

 

Vezina Trophy:  Another one where I don't mind the selection.  I could argue for Bishop.   But for my money, it's Varlamov.  I'm not sure who votes for the Vezina.  Is it hockey writers?   His off-ice stuff at the beginning of the year could hurt him if it's hockey writers.  Otherwise, barring  a disaster in the final weeks, he gets my vote.

 

Calder Trophy:   This one isn't even close for me.  Congratulations, Scott.

 

Selke Award:  No problem with the Bergeron or with the finalist selections.

 

Jack Adams:  This and the complete non-mention of Giroux and Chara is what caused me to post this.   Boudreau?  Really?   I'm sorry, but this is Roy in a walk.  The Ducks were expected to do well.  And until they perform in the playoffs for Coach One-and-Done, color me unimpressed.  And they've faltered down the stretch (admittedly largely since this article was written).  Roy, on the otherhand, has taken a fairly young club that was not expected to contend and has done wonders.  That team is for real.  This may not be their year as far as going deep because they have to contend with incredibly strong teams out west, but they could continue to surprise.  Ken Hitchcock?   Are we strictly looking at the standings (when this was written) and making mindless predictions?   Nothing against Hitchcock,, but this is again a team that was supposed to compete.  If we're using whatever criteria Cullen is using, Claude Julien and Quinville should be up there.  Both had teams that went to the finals last year and have kept their teams focused.  There has not been any "success hangover" for either club.   And, really, you have to at least mention Berube and Bylsma in this category if you're paying attention at all.   Again, for my money, it's Roy in a walk.  I don't even discusss Boudreau in this category.

 

 

What are your thoughts?

 

[jammer2]

@ruxpin  The NHL's GM's vote on the Vezina. I have Rask slightly ahead of Bishop and Varly, but it's up for grabs in the final month of the season in my books, whichever of the 3 play the best down the stretch gets the nod.