The big 4, lament and the future

[hobie]

How have the big 4's contracts worked out so far?

I would say they are expected to provide offense while not being a detriment to the team overall.

AM- 70 gp, 47 g, 33 ass., 80 points, +19

MM- 59 gp., 16 g., 51 ass., 67 points, +6 

JT- 63 gp., 26 g, 34 ass., 60 points, -7

WN- 68 gp., 31 g., 28 ass., 59 points, -2

JT and WN are negative players but basically their line was the experimental line where they've played with a cast of many. 

TO has 238 goals for, third best in the NHL, the big 4 have a combined total of 120 goals which is over 50% of TO's GF and they have missed 22 games and this is the third most goals scored by a team in the NHL this year, bears repeating, I think.

For every goal scored the league could award 2 assists so with 238 goals the assist total could be 476 assists, the big 4 have 146 assists total so they're not keeping pace there.

TO has 36 wins and the big 4 have 18 GWG, 50 % exactly, there's no record of game tying goals that I know of.

The big 4 have a combined +14 but I think Hy's total should be included in their total because he plays with them all the time for a total of +27, the rest of TO has a +25, I wonder how much of the +25 is the result of players on the ice with the big 4. 

Of some interest I think, Barrie is -7, Holl is +13, Dermott +14, Ceci +7, Sandin -7 and Lilly -5.

It seems to me TO's big 4 is living up to their contracts, in spite of the salary imbalance TO is in a playoff spot. TB had a historic season last year yet got eliminated in the 1st round of the playoffs so I'd say it isn't essential that TO be the best team every game so long as it make the playoffs.

The silver lining is the the cap is going up and the big 4s bite of the cap is going to go down and outside of JT the big 4 will all be less than 25 to start next year!

Of all of the FAs that TO let leave for nothing only one has bothered me, Bozak. I think a line with Bozak, Kadri and Kappy would be a line that TO could really use but of course that line would be very expensive but I'm sure there could've been a way. I know Bozak is getting 5 mil. from St.L. but I'm sure he would've taken a home town discount. It's TO's 3rd line that I think is it's greatest weakness now, TO can make a very good tho expensive 4th line outside of it's top 5 forwards.  

Next year TO is probably going to shed Barrie and Ceci and I doubt Sandin and Lilly are ready, hopefully I'm wrong. Even if they are reasonably ready TO would need someone to play with Rielly and some reasonably priced experienced extra. One more potentially decent goalie would be ideal.

The doom and gloom that this year brought us might lift as soon as next year.

[WordsOfWisdom]

On 3/13/2020 at 1:52 AM, hobie said:

For every goal scored the league could award 2 assists so with 238 goals the assist total could be 476 assists, the big 4 have 146 assists total so they're not keeping pace there.

 

You have to admit that's a pretty oddball stat though.   

 

Whether a play has one or two assists on it really is irrelevant. Goals are what matters.

 

On 3/13/2020 at 1:52 AM, hobie said:

It seems to me TO's big 4 is living up to their contracts, in spite of the salary imbalance TO is in a playoff spot. TB had a historic season last year yet got eliminated in the 1st round of the playoffs so I'd say it isn't essential that TO be the best team every game so long as it make the playoffs.

 

I miss having these discussions.   

 

On 3/13/2020 at 1:52 AM, hobie said:

The silver lining is the the cap is going up and the big 4s bite of the cap is going to go down and outside of JT the big 4 will all be less than 25 to start next year!

 

I think any notion of the cap going up next season has gone out the window. I'm expecting a massive decline in the cap for next season, and I'm wondering what the league will do (if it still exists in October that is) with teams who could conceivably be $40 million over the cap through no fault of their own. In fact, all 31 teams might be way over the cap to begin next season and I'm wondering what happens then. 

 

 

[hobie]

I don't think what is happening now will affect next year's cap, this year's escrow and the owner's bottom line, yes, unless the world is still in the midst of social distancing at the beginning of next year, then there won't be a full season, again so things would be prorated I'd think.

 

When we see Matthews score it is easy to think that assists can be discounted but assists acknowledge that hockey is a team game. Matthews can score from impossible situations but the rest of TO's goals are the result of team effort.