I think I'm hearing TO is going to trade for just about every d-man both alive and dead that ever played/plays in the NHL. There's also rumors TO is looking for a backup. I can't say trading for these players would be a bad idea but really it depends. TO traded for Muzzin, that cost 2 prospects plus a first, it was the type of trade that should've been designed to get TO out of pretender status to a legitimate Cup contender. It didn't work out last year and that's alright but the biggest problem for me is and has been Muzzin's age, he's going to be 31 Feb. 21. I'm hoping that if TO is going to again trade for player(s) they trade for ones that possibly are presigned and a bit younger. The rumor is Dubie is looking for players who have term on their contracts, this I like. 

Lately a rumor has TO interested in Dumba, age wise this is good, he's 25, he has 3 years left on his contract, again a good thing but those are only 2 considerations. My evaluation of him is he's Phanny lite, good shot, physical but defensively a nightmare. At 6 mil. per he's way overpaid and TO can't afford to overpay. I feel he's a classic Rielly type of player, Minny gave him a contract that hoped/expected he'd be able to grow into but he hasn't. 

Other d-men TO has been linked to, Colin Miller, 27, who wasn't highly thought of in Vegas and Buffalo has been benched occasionally in Buffalo, pass, Alec Martinez, 32, too old and Josh Manson, 28, a traditional 2nd pairing d-man who's stats aren't particularly impressive but he is phycical, his stats aren't much better than Ceci's. The question here is, is TO good enough to overpay for d-men/d-man that will only help TO make the playoffs.

The goaltender TO has been linked to most often is Alexander Georgiev, 23, he has 0 years left on his ELC and the 2 times I've seen him he's handled TO pretty well but otherwise there is little to support the notion that he's superior as his stats are SSV% .910, GAA 3.11 so he probably is an upgrade on Hutchinson this year but historically Hutchinson has stats that are even better than Georgiev's.

I've never had an issue with TO using the NHL as it's farm system, young roster players,  draft choices and prospects should always be options to move to improve the team now but I'd like TO to keep in mind the future in any transaction.

When the playoffs begin teams are capless. 

If a team has an injury say just before the TDL that was long term yet could still make the playoffs, that team might not be in a hurry to bring the broken player back.

TO will have 18 games left after the TDL.

Quote

LTIR, the NHL Trade Deadline and You

Teams in LTIR don’t get to prorate the cap hit of the players they acquire partway through the season. December 1, January 15 or February 24, it’s all the same deal: Player movement is cap hit dollar in, dollar out.

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2020/1/13/21063590/ltir-the-nhl-trade-deadline-and-you-a-maple-leafs-fan

Just thought this would be of interest to many on this forum.

Toronto has $0 cap space, Philly $579,444 according to CapFriendly.

https://www.capfriendly.com/

If this is confusing, read the article.

I'm finding Mitch's game troubling lately, more and more he seems to be relying on the no look pass, his passes are leading to man advantage breakaways for the opposition teams.

I also don't like his PP game lately, he's too slow moving the puck which allows the defending team to set up better, all the Leaf forwards stop to watch and see what he's going to do. He's not drawing defenders to him because he rarely shots and nobody wants to stand in front of the opposition's net to be abused while Mitch stick handles back and forth to himself.

Sandin played his 7th NHL game tonite, picked up 2 assists so he now has 4 points in those games. I saw him use his body 3 times to win or neutralize battles, that's close to 3 more times than Rielly would use his body in any given game.

If it's true that the hockey world views Rielly as TO's best d-man and as a perennial potential all-star then I think TO should look for an upgrade on defense by using Rielly. Few teams would trade a legitimate top 2 d-man for a winger such as Nylander. 

McDavid is coming at me, I'm the only player that can stop him and there isn't any worry about what's coming behind him, what should I do?

Strip the puck off of his stick, of course, stopping him is the 2nd option, really?

Good acquisitions TO could make for the 2nd half of the season Johnsson, Mikey, Moore and Muzzin returning to the lineup and Sandin being promoted. When all of the players become healthy TO is going to return to Cap hell so some of the players who deserve to be Leafs might not be.

How will TO look when everyone is healthy?

Mikey/AM/MM

Hy/JT/Ny

Johnsson/Kerfoot/Kappy

Engvall/Spezza/Moore

Tima

Rielly/Barrie

Muzzin/Holl

Sandin/Ceci

Dermott/Marincin

Interesting observation about the game last night, the d pairing used against the Islanders last night Marincin and Holl. TO scored with those 2 on so they ended up +3. That's not my observation, it was mentioned on TSN today. 

Tonite was emblematic of what TO is, essentially a 2 line team with decent support. Lately the JT line had been carrying the team, mostly, but tonite Austin's line took care of the offense. That's the value of having 2 strong lines.

We are seeing something we wouldn't ever have seen with Babs, TO using rookies in important situations like PKing. With Babs TO would be looking for a 3rd line center, an experienced d-man, and God knows what else because Babs has trust issues. Keefe is willing to play new players and we can now see that TO has depth, not just depth but quality depth.

Anyway, it's been a great ride, and I think TO only needs 45 points in the last 39 games to make the playoffs.  

Quote

I'm not sure how they calculate these numbers but I compared our schedule to Tampa
 

	Leafs	Lightning
# Games	41	44
# Away	19	24
# Back to Backs	4	9
# rested vs b2b opponent	6	0
# Playoff opponents	18	23

Leafs have less games in total, less road games, less back to backs, less playoff opponents and in 6 occurrences they play a team on the back end of a back to back when we are rested.

I would say leafs have an easier schedule.

 

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/leafs-chances-of-making-playoffs-reddit-user.2710239/page-37

TB has a few games in hand on TO and is the team that's most likely to knock TO out of 2nd in the Atlantic or are they?

I saw this posting from HF boards, sorta makes TO status seem a lot more secure and makes TO's quest to make the playoffs pretty well automatic.

I was a fun game to watch with both fans being elated then dejected.  Svehnikov what a beaut!

I think this was a game of speed intimidating and each team having their way for long periods, the Canes's offensive game is pretty awesome, it's gonna be an interesting playoffs this year.

I'm pretty sure if Babs was coaching tonite TO would've lost. TO was stale from the git go but Keefe was patient waiting till the last 1/4 of the 2nd to start tinkering. Babs would've stuck with the same lines and he would've expected TO to defend it's way to victory. I never understood how Babs figured TO could win when the puck was living in the Leafs end, Babs might've changed up the lines for one shift, maybe. Keefe decreased the icetime of the players who weren't doing anything and upped the icetime of those who were trying.

It's so refreshing to see a coach coach rather than have a coach trapped in their own thoughts.

We're seeing the team that Dubie wants, exciting winning hockey.

The further into Keefe's tenure the more I'm seeing the team we were being told we have. For years we were told how fast and talented TO's players were but outside of the outright goal scoring my eyes constantly told me TO wasn't that skilled or fast. For me skill isn't just being able to score but it's also getting and maintaining possession. Speed isn't something that can be utilized if the team is constantly told to advance the puck even if that means giving up possession. Babs' stretch passes and dumping the puck in is a practical approach for a team of at best middlin' talents but a truly talented team needs, craves possession and should do it's best to keep the puck.

Will this always be a winning formula, not always I'm sure but for this team with these players that's how TO needs to roll.

Last night TO played the Rangers and after 2 periods the game was tied. Considering how tenuous TO has looked protecting a lead going into the 3rd period lately there was a foreboding feeling. Surprise, surprise TO played the 3rd like they play the 1st periods lately, the d pressed, the forwards possessed, basically TO dominated. After 4 plus years of Babs wanting them to lock the game down, minimize mistakes, defend essentially TO finally did so by playing the 3rd like they should play the entire game, by pressing not defending. This is also how TO should play the entire game, forget the clock, if the lead is 3 go for 4. I read somewhere that Gretzky would say to his Oiler teamates going into the 3rd period when Edmonton had a serious lead, let's score more! 

There is a mindset that's firmly ensconced by Babs and it's going to take some time for TO to free itself of this and realize that Babs' way is one way but probably not the best way for this team.

Now I'm seeing TO's speed and talent!!!

10 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 

Why on earth would the Blues do this? 

St.L. traded Statsny to Winterpeg even tho they were in the playoff race 2 years ago, the GM decided that he'd rather get assets for Statsny than just let him walk.

Pietra is a UFA after this year and there are doubts that St.L. will be able to afford him so rather than look for a draft choice haul for him like N.J. got for Hall Rielly might be considered a proper return. Rielly is signed for 2 more years and at 5 mil. per he might be considered a bargain for a d-man who's 25, 4 years younger than Pietra, and has more than 120 points in the prior 2 years.

Rielly could be replaced by a similar and potentially cheaper d-man in Barrie, I don't like the idea of TO going all in salary wise on such a limited player like Rielly. Last year was an anomaly for Rielly, Pietrangelo is the real deal and worthy of a 8 mil. deal, probably. 

Muzzin if resigned can and usually does provide offense, Sandin looks like a PP worthy future addition and all of TO's current d-men are mobile.

I have issues with all performance measurement stats, none of them tell the whole story. How many fans and media types are so happy that Gardiner And Hainsey are gone yet they were TO's best d-men by the +/- metric for their last 2 years, Gardiner was +28  and Hainsey +42. Rielly is absolutely loved yet he was +20 over those 2 years and last year was his first + year ever.

During the last 2 years, not this one, TO's +/- story appears to tell two different stories and those stories aren't consistent with TO's results.

In 2017/18 TO set a franchise record for points for all time, during that year TO only had 5 players with a +rating above +10, Matthews +25, Hy +22, Ny +20. Dermott +16 and Hainsey +12.

Last year tho TO had 100 points it felt like there was an 18 wheeler happening. Last year TO had 10 players above +10, Haisey +30, Rielly +24, Marner +22, JT & Gardiner +19, Hy +16, Johnsson +14, Kappy +12 and Brown & Muzzin at +11. 

Some teams have had great cores but didn't win Cups like SJ over the last decade. We have a core that can win it all but things have to unfold just right to win it all.

TO might just squeak into the playoffs this year but I like the looks of this team and the changes Keefe is making.

It always floors me that a player like Hall gets such a small/meager return in a trade. Many are thinking that TO can trade some of it's forward depth to improve the d, I guess that's possible but to get a proper upgrade it would probably cost AM or Mitch.

I wouldn't mind TO using Rielly to upgrade the d like trading Rielly for Pietrangelo.

I believe last year before Xmas the duo of Rielly and Hainsey were + high 30s but after that they were bleeding like the rest of the team.

Rielly at 0 isn't that great considering he's supposedly TO's best d-man and who he gets to play with, players like Matthews, JT, Mitch and Ny.

During the 2012/13 season Mark Fraser was TO's best d-man by +/- measure at +18, it wasn't long after that season that he was no longer in the NHL.

That dismal Ottawa team is only 6 points behind TO with a game in hand. 

TO's problem has been that it doesn't have a truly dominant line, 50% of the Cap is tied up in 4 forwards and they aren't dominant. I'm hoping that Keefe will eventually construct a line like Matthews/Ny/Mitch. I feel that Matthews would be better as a winger due to his inconsistent effort on the fore and back checks  but he with Ny and Mitch who would do the grunt work would make for a dynamic line capable of dominating. I like Ny being the center on that line because he's a righty which is best to set up Matthews, JT is a lefty. 

TO has all that money tied up in forwards but on a goals per game basis is only 9th or there abouts in the NHL. TO is set up to outscore it's other problems but is just hanging on so that needs to change. Everything about TO screams that it will dominate offensively which should include territoriality but it hasn't been happening and that needs to change because the players are there. That dominance should ultimately result in a better defensive team because like Dubas and Keefe hope TO should own the puck.   

Hainsey had a great + rating last year but I think that had more to do with Rielly having a career year, last year was Rielly's first + year. 

The detail I remember is only because it was something I was looking for.

I would say Mitch is an MVP along with Andersen but so is Tavares, Matthews scores but his value beyond that is often muted.

I watched a fair amount of the Vegas/Van game tonite, the first period was mostly Vegas, the 2nd period totally Vegas and after Vegas has a healthy lead Van took over, hemmed Vegas in and looked like they were the better team. If someone had only watched the 3rd period they wouldn't believe that Van was losing.

After TO had a good lead the 4th line was deployed more often, how the minutes are doled out usually depends on the state of the game.

Ovie's contract is 12 years old, he has 1 year after this remaining. He signed for 9.4 mil. per and in the first year of his contract the Cap ceiling was 56.7 mil., so his % of the Cap was 16.6%. Two years later Backstrom signed for 6.7 mil., the salary Cap was 59.4 mil., his % of the Cap plus Ovie's was 28.4%. For the last 10 years Washington has been a dominant, perennial Cup contender that finally won after the 8th year of Backstrom's contract. The only reason that Wash. could sign them for that cheap is because of the length of their contracts, TO doesn't have that luxury but the Cap has being going up far more quickly now.

The salary Cap now is 81.5 mil. but somehow TO's salary commitment this year is 94.3 mil. and TO isn't the only team above the Cap ceiling so there must be loop holes and TO has the financial might to exploit them.

Matthews % of salary Cap-14.2%

Marner's         "                     -13.4%

Matthews and Marner's combined Cap hit is 27.6% of the 81.5 mil. ceiling, slightly less than Ovie's and Backstrom's when Backstrom signed his current contract. Washington also had some other doozy contracts like Semin's, Arnott's, Knuble, Laich so they were as Cap weary as the Leafs are now but in the first year of the Backstrom contract Wash. was 48 and 23 with 11 OL for 107 points.

I don't think the big 4's contracts are the issue, the issue is Ceci's, Kerfoot's, Kappy's, and Johnsson's contracts.

OK, maybe I needed to clarify my question, when was the last time that the regular season GA champion won the Cup?

I would think that would be LA, maybe, but being the best during the regular season doesn't automatically result in the Cup.

We can see from from your fine research that even middlin' or worse GA during the playoffs can still deliver the Cup.

TO's d might be significantly different next year, TO went from the worse team in the NHL to a playoff team in the space of 1 year so who knows what might happen in the next  1 or 2 years. Liljegrin, Sandin, Kivihalme, Rasanen or whoever might be TO's next superior top d pairing player or TO might trade/sign one.  

I think it's pretty exciting to realize that TO made the playoffs 3 years running with what many thought was a questionable d so the question now is can TO keep the forward core together while building a better d. I think that Winterpeg with it's GA standing, as of tonite, around 10th is showing that having a stellar d isn't the key to better d, it has to be a team effort.

The NYI have a middlin' d crew yet have the best GA in the NHL, what I want from TO is a better overall team effort, I'd think that man for man TO probably has a better d than the NYI. 

For a few years sure but in 3 or 4 years it might change.

The key is TO needs to continue to draft and develop players.

The other key is having the players that can deliver the Cup which I think TO has.

23 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

I love how this team fixes everything but the defence.  I almost think it's a running gag/joke. 

 

Here's a bit of trivia for you:  

 

Name the last time the Leafs had the best GA (fewest goals allowed) in the league.

Name the last time the team with the best GA won the Cup?

3 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

But I think what you can say about Chicago and Pittsburgh is that they won the Cup fairly early into their rebuild. The Penguins drafted Crosby and Malkin and won the Cup quickly before cap constraints pulled the team apart. Chicago did the same with Toews and Kane, etc.  Both teams managed to get their Cup wins in before the salary cap "came knocking" and said "time's up, your Cup window is hereby closed". 

 

It took Pittsburgh a long time to get back there for the 3rd one, and they really managed to rape Toronto on the Kessel trade (which helped). So Toronto was as helpful to Pittsburgh's most recent Cup win as the Penguins roster was. 

 

Wash. and St.L. won Cups late in their rebuilds?

I think TO did acquire that elite d-man during the summer and we now finally have him playing with Rielly.  if you search your memory banks and revisit TO's games of last year you will come to the realization that teams generally entered TO's end on it's weaker side, Hainsey's side. Hainsey didn't have the speed to properly protect TO's zone, to have proper gap control to deny entry. His one value was protecting the house which always put far to much pressure on TO's ability to defend and ultimately made he and Rielly look horrible. Babs wanted TO to protect the house, Keefe wants TO to deny entry into TO's zone thereby protecting the house which should be more suitable to TO's personnel. 

10 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Is there a losing formula to win the Cup? 

 

In a salary cap league, the formula for success is to draft your core group, surround them with support players on bargain deals, and win before the entry level contracts of your core group need to be renewed. You basically need to get a group of players you can underpay and win during that window before their play warrants a sizeable raise.  

 

Once you're forced to start paying established star players what they're worth your team is doomed as far as the cap is concerned and you find yourself in the lose-lose position of either losing your star players or losing all the quality players around them.   

I meant to highlight the A in my rambling. No single winning formula has won Cups, the Chicago and Pitts. teams were smallish and not very physical but won Cups. The call for TO to become bigger and more physical is simply people expressing their opinions, their own bias.

6 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 Maybe get a couple of guys (forwards AND defence) that can play in their own end and bring a bit of sandpaper. 

 

 Your team has soft offensive players coming out the ying yang. Dubas trades the one guy that brought both those qualities...for more soft offence. It's like he's trying to be the "anti-Bruins".

 

 But it's working for the Bruins.

During the last playoff against Boston TO was more physical than Boston.. By physical I mean by hit count, which is alright I guess but TO still lost. That's not TO's game and therefore the end result was predictable.

Babs preached advance the puck as opposed to possess the puck which is alright if the team he's coaching is made up of players that aren't very good with the puck on their stick and can win physical battles, he endorsed advancing the puck no matter what, even if that meant giving it up but the team he had was comprised of players who thrive with the puck on their sticks, IMO. Keefe wants TO to possess the puck which should ultimately be a more compatible game plan for TO's roster, we shall see.