Long Leafs Off Season Rant…

[Dave H]

Long winded Leaf rant…after taking some time to reflect this is where is stand. 
 

It’s that time again to throw out my forecast, wish list and plan out what I want my team to do this off season. 

 

This year has a few extra variables that play into the follow up to what was an incredibly painful ending to a promising season.  We have had many painful ends in my life but this year brought a new level of disappointment.  You know that gut wrenching feeling of failure you get from your parents when you make a bad decision. “I’m not angry, I’m just disappointed.” That was how I felt about my Leafs this year.  In this rant when i say, “can we win”, keep in mind I mean the Cup. Not regular season, not a playoff round (although that would have made me feel better this year), I want a cup, so that is what I mean.

 

Does this continual yearly anguish create a temptation to bail on my beloved Buds. The answer is simply no. I believe everyone wants to be a Leaf fan but only a select few true fans are strong enough to be a member of Leafs Nation. It isn’t for everyone but if that day ever arrives when the Cup belongs to my Maple Leafs I am sure the bandwagon will be overflowing.

For the most part I approved of the moves Dubas made this past year and going back k when he first took the job. I like the roster make up and style of play. I see no excuses for blowing the series against Montreal but I do demand growth from it.  I expect more from this group and I feel confident from the adjustments made over last few years by Dubas as he expands his philosophy.  He evolves, the team evolves and I become even more invested in the process and product.

 

Kyle’s scouting and talent values in tact he has recognized the need for grit, size and he sees role for these pieces. Drafting skill and developing is still paramount, he has put a fair amount of thought into his plan for nhl contracts with his prospects. He’s utilizing Europe, Jr or the NCAA allowing players to mature without burning entry years or nhl contracts then bringing some through the Marlies. Each player plan is unique. The cupboards may not be bursting with talent on the brink but he has waves maturing for openings as they occur.

 

An important step is still acquiring depth with grit, size or more coachable intangibles through free agency or secondary markets like Europe is smart. Why draft the pieces you can find easier or with less upside for those key roles. The KHL or NCAA I drafted free agent doesn’t always work but when it does it can be found money.  I would like to see a little more focus on talent with size but chasing value later in the draft means missing certain traits. I believe the idea is finding stars that have elite skill no matter the size is potentially a home run.  I like to refer to Tyler Biggs or Freddie Gauthier as draft picks with bottom of the line up ceilings but Joe Miller or Nick Abruzzese could be top of the line up players if they mature just due to the raw skill.  Just examples but not necessarily the guaranteed answers.

So what do I expect or want this summer?

To start I think we will protect 8 skaters and Campbell in the expansion draft. (Matthews, Marner, JT, Nylander, Rielly, Brodie, Muzzin and Holl) That means Kerfoot or Dermott will likely be lost. I am fine and can make an argument for why both is the best case scenario. In reality I don’t see either on the roster in the fall.  For the sake of this rant I will say Dermott is selected by Seattle.

 

Next up trading Willy? It won’t happen but for me Nylander’s playoffs performance and contract at a point I feel his trade value is at an al time high, I would be tempted to see what return he could net. Seth Jones?

 

That brings me to what I feel should have been the biggest lesson learned this year. The playoffs this season and in particular the Habs showed everyone. The impact of giant, skating, workhorse defence that are hard to play against results in playoff wins. Can we win with Rielly and Sandin as every night guys, I’m not sure. Smaller, Skilled, and Smart.  All great assets but more than 1 of that mold maybe too much.  Morgan Rielly is in his final year of his contract looking for a raise and I feel Dubas will sign Morgan long term this summer. My guess is $7.5 for 8 years is the range. I don’t want to lose Morgan for nothing and at his age the term and value guessed are ok. Just ok. That said, just like Nylander,  if he is a piece that can get us Seth Jones I do that 100%.  Even moving Morgan to sign Dougie Hamilton makes sense to me.

 

Before anyone accuses me of making video game trades or unrealistic moves, I’m not saying this is what will happen or claim it can happen but if I had my way I would love to see.

 

Oleksiak- Seth Jones
Muzzin-Brodie
Sandin-Bogosian
Hutton-Liljegren 

 

If we can sign Oleksiak, (ideally similar contract to Brodie for example) this 6’6” strong skating hard to play against d (does that sound like anything I wrote earlier) creates an echo so moving Holl and his reasonable contract would be very easy.  Holl could get help elsewhere in the lineup or a draft pick down the road. If not then Holl could be a solid bottom pair guy but his contract is rich for that role.

 

Last year Dubas took steps to make the forward unit more physical and added respected vets to his young core. Simmonds despite the wear on his tires added something needed on the roster and is still younger than his reputation would lead people to think. His physical presence excited Leaf Fans, myself included.  I wasn’t big on the Thornton addition with Spezza already on the roster but the risk seemed minimal. It was clear Spezza looked more comfortable post Babs and Jumbo never fit the role we continued to force him into. The power play in particular drove me crazy.

This year Simmonds and Spezza returning again for bargain deals, I feel Joe’s time is done in Toronto.  I’m looking for Robertson to make the leap into the top 6. I really liked Galchenyuk last year and for a $1 mil or less contract also could fit a role in the top 6 or maybe the 3rd line.

 

Hyman is a big question mark.  If he was to return to TO, I want him as a 3rd line guy. 4 or 5 years at $4.5  seems high for that role but the key is Galchenyuk and Robertson on value deals. Please don’t over pay him.

I’m not sold on Mikheyev or Engvall. Neither needs to go or must stay so they would have to be hungry to keep their job ahead of Brooks, Joey Anderson or even another value ufa or trade piece this summer.

 

There are names I could see taking Mikheyev, Engvall or even Hyman spot in the bottom 6. Glendening, Granlund even returning with unfinished business Nick Foligno all possible for the right price. Remember earlier I said Kerfoot has to go as his $3.5 per is very important. 

 

My forward group is…

 

Galchenyuk, Matthews, Marner
Robertson, Jt, Nylander 
Granlund, Foligno, Simmonds 
Brooks, Glendening, Spezza
Anderson

 

That said I like the idea of names I don’t necessarily see on the radar. A few rfa’s for example Bertuzzi or Garland intrigues me.

Our net is also interesting this summer as Freddie Andersen will likely move on.

Please don’t over pay him either.  The Leafs can’t and shouldn’t pay the money Fred will get. I’m personally hoping for Mrazek to partner with Campbell but there are many names in the mix and the expansion draft will be the first step in sorting this out.

 

Ufa’s only cost $, which we only have so much to go around. Trades however can be fun but you have to give to get. It won’t be easy and I really like Dubas and his crew so I have faith they can take the steps necessary.

 

So that is my ideal situation but for the  roster I mentioned trades for Kerfoot, Holl, Mikheyev and Engvall all bring some for of return. 

 

It will be fun and we will see what the week of July 21-28 starts this off season retooling to be create the 2021-22 Toronto Maple Leafs.

 

Go Leafs Go!

[Brewin Flames]

Great first post, welcome to the forums...

[yave1964]

Man I laugh at the Leafs fans, I dont blame them entirely as the market is a huge part of it but supposedly they are in on everyone Cap be damned. If you said that Nylander/Seth Jones were on the table that would be one thing, but to suggest that you can add Oleksiak/Jones, resign Foligno, add Granlund, where is the money coming from?? The Leafs are who they are, an enormously talentd team that is flawed with a fragile ego come playoffs and these moves are simply never going to happen and wont change it anyway until Matthews/Marner.Tavares/Reilly.Nylander find something that is clearly missing they are destined to be the leagues biggest and most frustrating underachievers. Not trying to pile on, they are so fun to watch but the cap is the cap and they need the big five to step up or no matter how you rearrange yhe deck chairs, the ship will continue to sink every year in April. You have to learn how to win but I would think the window is closing soon and they either learn soon or a big boy or two must be moved out.

[pilldoc]

@Dave H

 

First of all Welcome!  What a great first post!  Looking forward to you joining more discussions here.

 

The only Leafs issue you did not address was the situation in goal.  Personally I think there are too many demons in Andersen's head and I'm curious how he comes back from being injured.  Is Campbell your starter moving forward?

 

Again excellent post and welcome!!

 

~doc

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

23 hours ago, Dave H said:

Go Leafs Go!

 

Great first post. Welcome aboard.

 

23 hours ago, Dave H said:

if he is a piece that can get us Seth Jones I do that 100%.

 

I don't watch as many Leafs games as you i am sure but i don't think Jones is a better defender that MR so to me this wouldn't an upgrade.