WordsOfWisdom Posted April 10, 2016 Author Share Posted April 10, 2016 Apr.9: TOR vs NJ Parenteau, Sparks Greening, Marincin Nylander, Greening, Brennan (Empty net.) Sparks, Marincin Final score: 5-1 NJ. Leafs clinch 30th place! Another prediction comes true!!! Awesome!!!!!! Final team DE stats will be posted in the next few days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BluPuk Posted April 10, 2016 Share Posted April 10, 2016 Well done, @WordsOfWisdom. It's been great following along with the stats you provide, thanks for doing them. Hope you do it again next season! See you next year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WordsOfWisdom Posted April 10, 2016 Author Share Posted April 10, 2016 1 hour ago, BluPuk said: Well done, @WordsOfWisdom. It's been great following along with the stats you provide, thanks for doing them. Hope you do it again next season! See you next year!! Thanks for tuning in. It's basically a 2-year experiment that I've done (only with the Leafs) to determine the feasibility and accuracy of tracking and assigning errors in a way that is more accurate than just saying "player X was on the ice when the goal was scored". The improvements that were made during last offseason greatly improved the value of the statistic (in my opinion). For example, the ability to assign errors to multiple players on one goal, while still having limits, so that it didn't degenerate into +/-. I think that was important. There were some "oddball" scenarios this season that I never encountered before and had to resolve on the fly. All in all, I need to look at the results and see what they say. Greater questions going forward are: Does the stat provide additional value than what already exists (+/-, Corsi, Fenwick)? Does the stat properly identify strong vs weak defensive players? Does the stat try to do too much? ie: Is it too complicated to figure out and assign? Are there ways in which it could be improved? Will the hockey world warm up to the idea of having errors (largely a baseball concept) in hockey or do hockey people need to "roll their own" stats? Thus far I haven't heard any feedback from any outside sources. I assume that there are hockey analysts and other people in the industry that quietly read the forums here and elsewhere. To date, I haven't heard anything mentioned about it on TV or radio, and nobody (from outside the forum) has contacted me about any details of how it works. It may well be the case that it would need to be tracked for all 30 teams for several years before enough data could be collected to form a proper opinion on the stat. By working alone in my spare time, the most I could ever track is one team, unless this became my full time job and I got paid to do it for a living. In any event, I should have the final stats up today sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WordsOfWisdom Posted April 10, 2016 Author Share Posted April 10, 2016 The final numbers on the 2015-16 season: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WordsOfWisdom Posted April 10, 2016 Author Share Posted April 10, 2016 Kudos to: Nazem Kadri - For finishing with a +30 TPM (best on the team) and a strong 92.6 MPBE rating (best center and best regular on the team). William Nylander - For 13 pts in only 22 GP with just 3 errors. He's ready to take this team over next season. Connor Brown - For 6 pts in 7 GP with 1 error. Talk about making a splash. Josh Leivo - For 5 pts (all goals) in 12 GP, and 0 errors. Jake Gardiner - For being the Leafs best and most improved defenceman. His +10 TPM was #1 and he had 31 pts to go with it despite less ice time than Rielly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WordsOfWisdom Posted April 10, 2016 Author Share Posted April 10, 2016 Injuries totally derailed good seasons by: JVR (+23) Tyler Bozak (+23) Leo Komarov (+20) Most disappointing seasons by: Matt Hunwick (abysmal defensive performance, team worst -19 TPM) Martin Marincin (very poor defensive play) Byron Froese (only 5 pts in 56 GP) TJ Brennan (he was a -6 in 7 GP using traditional +/-, but he was a -1 TPM with a poor 52.9 MPBE -- not the way to make a good impression in the NHL -- and disappointing coming from someone we heard so much about here in the forums) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BluPuk Posted April 12, 2016 Share Posted April 12, 2016 I'd like to see JVR and Bozak both gone. I'm not a big fan of either guy. If they keep Marincin, I'm going to stop watching, I swear! I'd like to see us in a strong enough position that we don't need a Komorov - we need somebody like that but with more talent. Should be lots to discuss next season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WordsOfWisdom Posted April 12, 2016 Author Share Posted April 12, 2016 6 hours ago, BluPuk said: I'd like to see JVR and Bozak both gone. I'm not a big fan of either guy. If they keep Marincin, I'm going to stop watching, I swear! I'd like to see us in a strong enough position that we don't need a Komorov - we need somebody like that but with more talent. Should be lots to discuss next season... The Leafs have a handful of "B tier talent" guys on their top lines but no "A tier" guys. That's something that will need to be addressed as the building process moves along. Kadri seemed to be figuring things out this season but his offensive numbers still leave a lot to be desired. He's a long way from being a PPG player. I have a feeling Nylander is going to be on the top line next year and will eclipse all of them rather quickly. Will probably be the next captain. That will make one of the others expendable. I don't mind Bozak. He's okay. He's still arguably the Leafs best center. He did more in less games than Kadri did. Until someone takes his spot (or we can trade for someone better), the Leafs will continue to have a #2 center as their #1 guy. Part of the problem the Leafs have is that they need help EVERYWHERE. Every position needs an upgrade. The Leafs have two offensive defencemen as their #1 and #2 guys. That won't fly going forward in a cap system. One of Rielly or Gardiner is going to be traded eventually to acquire a monster stay-at-home defenceman. That should be priority #1. A goaltending upgrade is priority #2. Bernier is craptacular and Sparks is in over his head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 So rumor has it Leafs are to sign this guy soon...... Not as impressed with that after seeing Medvedev struggle this year for my Flyers. Guys don't get that type of time and space in the NHL. So this not sure it will be a home run as perceived. That small rink and physical play changes things a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BluPuk Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Personally, I would not even bother with this guy - I don't care if he's the second coming. We don't need him. He's just as likely to sign a contract, get his money and blow town with it as he is to prove to be a real pro. If he's happy in Russia, he should stay there. Your points about the difference in ice size, intensity of play and level of effort required are well taken as well. Unfortunately, the only way to find out for sure if he is any good is to give him a shot here which would be a good idea if that shot were in the AHL and there were no money at risk. Good luck with that.... I'm off to find my ten foot pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WordsOfWisdom Posted April 19, 2016 Author Share Posted April 19, 2016 On 14/04/2016 at 7:13 AM, BluPuk said: Personally, I would not even bother with this guy - I don't care if he's the second coming. We don't need him. He's just as likely to sign a contract, get his money and blow town with it as he is to prove to be a real pro. If he's happy in Russia, he should stay there. Your points about the difference in ice size, intensity of play and level of effort required are well taken as well. Unfortunately, the only way to find out for sure if he is any good is to give him a shot here which would be a good idea if that shot were in the AHL and there were no money at risk. Good luck with that.... I'm off to find my ten foot pole. I reached down my shorts and found mine. Right where I left it! (Sorry, couldn't resist.) I don't see any harm in giving this "Z" guy (whatever his name is) a shot at the Leafs. We have nothing to lose. Short term contracts only of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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