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Shot Differential Starting to Burn the Leafs Again


WordsOfWisdom

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Earlier in the season, the Leafs were doing a good job of controlling their shots allowed. Not so much in the past half dozen games or so. Since the "wheels fell off" in the new year, the Leafs have been back to their old ways again, giving up 30+, even 40+ shots on goal per game. The numbers have been badly tilted.

The Leafs currently sit 27th at 31.4 shots against per game.

 

 

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Even though 31.4 is good for 27th out of 30 teams in the league, in the grand scheme of things, 31.4 ISN'T terrible.

On average, if you are a team that doesn't play a real tight brand of hockey, then I'd expect about 30 shots or so against on a regular basis. The better defensive teams perhaps around 25-30.

THEN one has to take into consideration the KIND of shots faced. It's no big deal if a goalie faces 35 shots, 25 of which have come from the low danger perimeter, as opposed to a goalie that only saw 20 shots, of which 15 were very high pct shots and very stressful saves needed to be made...if the saves were made at all.

Thus, my friend, Words, I submit to you that it isn't so much that actual amount of shots that your goalies seem to be facing, but rather the QUALITY....and the fact that Leaf goalies simply aren't stopping them now that is the key issue.

Well, that was my attempt to make you feel better.....not so sure I succeeded though. :cool[1]:

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3 hours ago, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

Well, that was my attempt to make you feel better.....not so sure I succeeded though. :cool[1]:

:blink[1]:

I guess one figures that the shot quality will even out over time. The problem the Leafs have (or one of many problems they have) is that they are being out-shot on a nightly basis now by figures like these: 29-19, 40-30, 35-25, etc...  Which is to say, they're not keeping it close. Every ~10 SOG = 1 goal. Thus, the Leafs are making it impossible on themselves most nights. :(

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As I'm sure you have seen WOW, the boys effort level has 'levelled off' lately. I think they have come face to face with the reality of their place in the hockey world, and for the most part are just going through the motions. This is when we will really see who is really pulling the wagon and who is dead weight.

At season's start I was thinking this team could finish as high as 21st or 22nd. Now, I seriously doubt they can get to 24th. Babcock is looking really, really pissed more and more with every loss - not at the loss, but at the way they are losing. It's the old "why try?" situation. If nothing else we can get some interest out of watching who quits, and who doesn't.

So far, I like Reilly, Komorov, and Phaneuf (although he makes a lot of boo-boos, the effort is there). Reimer is also trying most nights, but that's about it. Most of the rest look like they'd rather be somewhere else most nights. Maybe management will help them 'out'. :unsure[1]:

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2 hours ago, BluPuk said:

As I'm sure you have seen WOW, the boys effort level has 'levelled off' lately. I think they have come face to face with the reality of their place in the hockey world, and for the most part are just going through the motions. This is when we will really see who is really pulling the wagon and who is dead weight.

At season's start I was thinking this team could finish as high as 21st or 22nd. Now, I seriously doubt they can get to 24th. Babcock is looking really, really pissed more and more with every loss - not at the loss, but at the way they are losing. It's the old "why try?" situation. If nothing else we can get some interest out of watching who quits, and who doesn't.

So far, I like Reilly, Komorov, and Phaneuf (although he makes a lot of boo-boos, the effort is there). Reimer is also trying most nights, but that's about it. Most of the rest look like they'd rather be somewhere else most nights. Maybe management will help them 'out'. :unsure[1]:

1. Indeed. At the bottom. Columbus, Buffalo, Edmonton, and Calgary are making it a tough battle for 30th though.

2. You're a "glass half full" person aren't you? :rolleyes: I'm a "glass half empty with a giant crack in the side" person. The Leafs made me that way. :biggrin:

3. Nice. I'd "help them out" with a boot to the kiester. :)

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