Lightning offseason review

[yave1964]

 

2016-17 A QUICK LOOK BACK: The Lightning entered the 2016-17 season enthusiastically, with stud players such as Stamkos, Kucherov and Hedman hitting their prime and veteran leadership helping two consecutive post season runs, young kids such as Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Alex Killorn all established and Jonathan Drouin coming off a solid postseason and looking to break through the thought was that the Bolts would again be among the short list of teams fighting for the Conference title. Stamkos even signed in the offseason before the start of free agency at a discounted rate.

  It did not work out that way, Ben Bishop was not the same player, average for much of the year and after the season got away from them dispatched to the Kings. But no injury crippled a team quite like the torn lateral meniscus suffered by Steven Stamkos on November 15th. The Lightning lost their superstar until the seasons final weeks and by then it was too late to do anything about it. They stumbled to a respectable 42-30-10 record, respectable for most teams but below the high standard set by the Tampa organization. Brian Boyle, Nikita Nesterov and Val Filpulla were shipped out along with Bishop at the deadline, 

  First the good, Kucherov did an admirable job as the teams resident stud with Stammer out, Drouin filled in abmireably and established himself. Victor Hedman was nearly a point a game d-man while contributing great defense. Vasilevskiy was a bit of a mixed bag but showed enough to inspire confidence that he is the new man in goal. Brayden Point had a fine rookie year and was largely unnoticed. Drouin proved he can play a the NHL level.

 As for what went wrong, other than the obvious loss of Stamkos for much of the year and the inefective play by Bishop, Palat, Johnson and Killorn were all good but were a bit in and out, Stalman showed cracks and the rest of the defense behind Hedman was very average at best. Callahan continues to erode as a player and J.T. Brown took a step back.

 

FREE AGENTS

 

Nothing to worry about here, the Bolts continue to take care of their own housekeeping ahead of time, a few guys like Witkowski and Dumont and Gourde who are more career AHLers than anything and who would not be missed if they move on.

 

OFFSEASON QUESTIONS

 

1) WILL THEY MISS DROUIN?

Not if Stamkos comes back healthy which is the next question actually. Drouin was dealt to Montreal for defenseman Mikhail Sergachev. Drouin was very good last year as he was pressed in to top line duties but if Stammer comes back healthy the need for a second line winger is less than the need for an elite defensive prospect to take pressure off of Hedman.

 

2) CAN STAMKOS STAY HEALTHY?

His injury list is a fluky bunch, it is not as if he shows up 40 pounds overweight and gets hurt because of it, he has just had some strange luck. He signed that long term deal before last year and the Bolts better hope he can as his health is as critical to the long term success of the Bolts as Carey Price health is to the Canadiens. My feeling is he has had some strange luck which is bound to turn, he will probably never be the leagues iron man but 70-75 games a year with the occasional maintenance game would be acceptable.

 

3) WAS SERGACHEV WORTH THE PRICE THEY PAID? 

Drouin is a heck of a hockey player but a winger and with a bunch of solid wingers on the team he was expendable, Sergachev is an elite level prospect capable of being a star whereas IMHO Drouin is going to be a very good player for a very long time. It is a high risk deal and I give the Bolts a lot of credit for having the guts to make it.

 

4) IS VASILEVSKIY THE ANSWER IN NET?

This one may sound heritical to many but I do not think so, not at all. I think he is going to be okay but nothing special as an NHL goalie but in the cap age you have to role the dice in areas in the NHL and between he and Budaj the Bolts are rolling them bones. You do not have to have elite goaltending to contend, I do not feel that Vasilevskiy is anywhere near elite and I do not feel he ever will be but he is good. The question ito me is whether he is good enough to be in net for a team that is championship caliber and to that I say yes. I dont see him carrying the team on his back and winning a lot of series but I see him as good enough to win it all.

 

So the Bolts need a healthy Stamkos, a repeat from Kucherov and more consistent secondary scoring as well as a kid defenseman to step up and Vasilevskiy to be good enough. In spite of barely missing the postseason this team is still among the gold standards of the NHL and probably the best team in Hockey's weakest division and I do not see that changing any time soon.

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

Michael Leighton and Dan Girardi.......yikes ugly signings!!!!

 

#goingfortheCup 

[OccamsRazor]

 

Who will dance now?

[OccamsRazor]

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

Yet another good take on an off season, @yave1964 for a team I follow closely.

Can't really argue with any of what you said.

 

But as usual, some extra thoughts from me:

 

Two unexpected off season signings....Chris Kunitz and Dan Girardi.

Both of these guys are probably at the tail end of their 'useful on-ice lifespans' and am wondering if Stevie Y doesn't think the team has enough veteran leadership.

 

The Bolts have always prided themselves on being able to roll out 4 good lines, and Yzerman has been looking to replace Brendan Morrow for a couple seasons now (and now the departed via trade last season of Brian Boyle has left another gap in the bottom six).

 

Can the Cup winning veteran Chris Kunitz do what Brendan Morrow was too tired too do and Erik Condra was incapable of doing?

I am guessing that is the hope.

 

As for Girardi...I will admit, when I first heard Girardi was being bought out by NY, I DID think, "What would he be like wearing TB blue?"

My thinking was NY was in a cap crunch and needed to unload some salary (the up n coming Brady Skeji on NY's defense probably made a vet defenseman expendable)....but the more I read about it and in reviewing Girardi's play last season, it seems he is on a steep downslope to his career and I think the Lightning at taking a bit of a chance giving him a 2 yr contract at 3M per.

 

That said, he is only 33 and perhaps there is a plan in place to have him focus on healing this off season, resting, AND he would NOT have to be a top pairing guy in Tampa Bay like he was in New York, and thus not have to play against the other team's top six lines, nor log as many minutes.

 

I will concede the risk factor with him, but if there is a silver lining with Girardi, its that perhaps he was just 'worn out' being a number one or number two D-man in NY....he will take on a much lighter work load with Tampa Bay.

 

As for other areas, I can't simply dismiss not having Drouin because he is a very talented player and showed last season he can rise to the situation....but if all goes right with TB forwards, and guys get back to their level of play (and the team stays relatively healthy), there is STILL enough talent up front to where Drouin's production CAN be replaced...if not by just one guy, but perhaps by two or three others having good seasons.

 

Tyler Johnson needs to stay off IR, Ondrej Palat and Anton Stralman SEVERELY underperformed last season, while Alex Killorn wasn't terrible, but IMO, did not live up to his new nearly 4.5M a year salary.

 

These things need to change and improved upon.

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

Bolts re-sign defenseman Jake Dotchin to a two year extension.

 

I like this signing as I think Dotchin is an under-the-radar type player.

Doesn't seem to stand out in any one particular area, but plays with aggression, skates pretty well, and, if he can learn to read the plays better at the NHL level, projects to being a pretty good two way type d-man.

 

Just 23 yrs old still, he has good size at 6'2 and 210 pounds, and his cap hit is a VERY team friendly $812K.

 

It IS a two way deal, and I believe the reason for that is, like I mentioned, he still needs to learn to read plays at the faster NHL pace.

But with Dan Girardi manning a spot on the big club, there is a chance Girardi either will need time on IR, or will fail at resuming his NHL career post-Rangers....and Dotchin will get his chance right then. 

If he doesn't make the team outright out of training camp that is....

 

EDIT:

Sorry guys, the Dotchin contract is a two your ONE way deal. My bad, I misread it.

Here is the link from NBC Sports:

http://nhl.nbcsports.com/2017/07/05/bolts-get-dotchin-under-contract-still-need-to-sign-johnson-and-palat/

 

Big difference.

Means the Bolts are gonna give him a chance right away to show them what he can do on a more full time basis.

 

He still needs to work, IMO, on the things I mentioned, but apparently, with a one way deal, Yzerman thinks he can. And the 812K cap hit is a very low risk to see if he can get the job done.

 

Go Dotchin, Go Bolts, Go!

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

Tampa Bay off season continues to take shape.

 

Since my last posting, the Lightning have re-signed both Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat to reasonable mid to long term deals and seemed to have shored up their veteran presence up front with the Chris Kunitz signing, desperately trying to make up for the Filppulat and/or Boyle departures.

 

Hopefully, not a whole lot will be expected of Kunitz....perhaps a regular bottom six role, maybe some PP time (the guy IS good at creating space for his linemates)....but really, the bulk of the team's weight should rightly fall on the shoulders of TB;s top six: Stamkos, Kucherov, Palat, Johnson, Callahan (if healthy), and one of either Namestnikov, Brayden Point, or Alex Killorn.

 

Defensively, I will admit to not being tremendously excited about the fact that, while the defensemen have gotten more experienced with the Girardi add, I still have to wonder about the overall MOBILITY of the D-men units.

 

We know Victor Hedman can skate, and skate well. Slater Koekkoek skates pretty well...but will he do enough to maintain the trust of Jon Cooper.

Then we have Brayden Coburn, Andrej Sustr, Jake Dotchin, Anton Stralman and Dan Girardi.

 

Coburn, Sustr, and of course, Girardi are hardly smooth skaters, and Dotchin is middling (though he is young enough that he can improve).

Stralman, while a good skater, saw some cracks in his armor, and fans best hope this isn't the beginning of a decline. At his best, Anton is a legit top pair guy, but his production, defensive coverage, and even speed all took a hit last season.

 

Was it some nagging injury? Is he going downhill?

Hopefully it was the former. For Victor Hedman to do what he does best, he needs a defense partner that is solid in his own end as well and can skate well enough to keep up with him. Stralman has been that guy, Dotchin saw some time trying to be that guy last season.  Fans certainly don't want Hedman feeling he has to do everything himself from the blue line.

 

Andrei Vasilivskiy will, of course, have to prove that not keeping Ben Bishop was the right move. Even if he never turns into an elite goalie, with the firepower the Bolts are projected to have, and supposedly, the 'smarter' defense, he won't have to be elite....just good.

 

Finally, guys like Yanni Gourde will get a chance to prove last season was no fluke (he played well enough to earn some top six minutes) and guys like JT Brown and Cedric Paquette, both rugged style players, will be called upon to continue to do just that: keep teams from running roughshod over Bolts' scorers.