JR Ewing

56 minutes ago, flyerrod said:

Who knew Walker was a critical piece of this team…….

As cheesy as it may be to quote myself...

On 1/17/2024 at 1:44 PM, JR Ewing said:

 

I think this is a *very* good way to look at things.

 

GF% and CorsiFor% tend to match up very well with each other: if a player is having unsustainable good luck, it should show up with a GF% a lot higher than expected (sort of like the entire Canucks team this year). The opposite generally holds true if his GF% is much lower than his CorsiFor%, but either way, as the games pile up, there's a tendency for these numbers to be pretty close to each other, plus or minus a couple of percent. A gap of 5-10% usually reverts to the mean.

 

If you look at those and their PDO, it's a decent look at whether or not a player has been getting the bounces: over 1.0, and the player's numbers are (except in the rare case of superstars) probably not sustainable, and if it's lower than 1.0, his results are unsustainably low.

 

Nick Seeler

GF%: 58.8%, CF%: 50.2%, PDO: 1.014

 

Sean Walker

GF%: 54.6%, 52 CF%, 0.996

 

So yes, just as you point out, Seeler's results are due for a collapse. When it will happen, nobody knows, but when a player is a getting a lot more of the goals than the possession indicates, with a high PDO, the regression is coming.

 

Walker, though, is getting results that are matching is play. He seems worth holding on to, for me.

I don't know if it's so much that Ersson has been badly over-worked as that the the club traded their best blue-liner and added their worst one during this stretch.

10 minutes ago, GratefulFlyers said:

 

After LOL I thought of the deal Briere made with Owen Tippett this year... made me appreciate it all the more. It could've been another Skinner. To be fair (IIRC) Skinner got his $72mil after the 40-goal season - the only 40-goal season so far. Maybe it's a blessing the Flyers only had Couturier and Frost dealing to Tippett this year.

Owen Tippett is an offense-first guy who is below average defensively, and he's still light years better than Skinner, who has no interest or ability to help on the defensive side of the puck and would rather do just about anything other than dig in the corners. Skinner is overpaid by about $4.5M and Tippett's next contract is right on the money for AAV.

I know who'd I rather have every day.

10 minutes ago, GratefulFlyers said:

 

Flyers' fans have renamed it Tortorella hockey this year. It's probably fair but is it a knock? I'm not sure. Can teams sustain their style into the POs? Is the stamina required unrealistic? It's an interesting question. I don't know if there is an answer. So much goes into winning the Cup...

 

I think the chief difference between them is that Torts generally treats his players with respect while Sutter's players mostly despised him and felt constantly disrespected. Tortorella usually stands up for his players and doesn't air dirty laundry to the media, while Sutter's teams have locked him out of the dressing room rather than be subjected to more of his sh|t.

Guys are willing to push themselves for somebody who challenges them, but not so much for coaches who kick players in the back on the bench, constantly kick/throw garbage cans around the room, forbid them to eat on flights if they lose, etc. When Jonathon Huberdeau left the game due to injury, the press was amused when Sutter said he left "to take a ****" but the player and his teammates felt it was disrespectful and belittling of him being hurt. When Jakob Pelletier made his NHL debut, Sutter was dismissive, asking what his number was and that he has a long way to go as a player, which was another point against him with Flames players.

Sutter is a throwback to the days when coaches were allowed to abuse players as they wished, and I've never heard that Tortorella pulls any of that kind of crap. It's just one player after another who has say that's demanding but fair, and that he always sticks up for them.

1 hour ago, RonJeremy said:

Behind every great wingers success is a skilled playmaking center.

I love it when teams other than my own over-pay low calorie wingers after being paired up with a high end centre who brings them career highs. The Sabres pairing Jeff Skinner with Jack Eichel and then laying out a $9M AAV, will never not be funny.

My guess is that people around here will think that I just care about stats, but it couldn't be further from the truth. I like to read the numbers because it gives me an understanding of what happened when I can’t watch. It surrounds the player’s upside & downside in some ways.

But for me, the sport has always been about one-on-one battles when it comes to serious hockey. Not the hockey you see in January between a top 4 team and one out of the playoffs, but between evenly-matched skill during the Spring. Some refer to it as Darryl Sutter hockey, and I guess that's right, although I didn’t really like him as a HC because he makes his teams play that way all season, so they're gassed come playoffs – but I ramble.

When I watch d-men in their own end, I watch who comes out of the corners with the puck. Along the boards, I watch to see which forward gets the puck out over the line when they have the chance; who ties up the guys stick in the slot. Things like that. I love watching the beautiful plays, of course, because the skill makes watching the game fun & exciting. But the trenches are, for me, where games are won and lost once the skill becomes neutralized.

I've seen Jeff Skinner score some pretty goals, and that's great, but I'm not sure I ever saw Jeff Skinner come off the boards with the puck when it was contested. To me, that is a problem when people are discussing numbers getting close to 8,9,10, etc million dollars per season.

8 minutes ago, yave1964 said:

Fantastic post.

 

  Man, as a fan I have to admit I struggled for years with post career. CTE. I admit I love the hits, love Fighting in the game. Probie, Kocur, Domi, just loved them. Hated concussions but felt, well, they are paid more in a solid year than I make in ten. I cared but wanted to win. 

  My perspective changed when my oldest came home from Afghanistan for the third time. She had seen things and done things. Her best friend died twenty feet away. Without giving away personal facts, there are two days a year that she gets blind drunk. It's been eight years and PTSD is still here.

  So my perspective has changed quite a lot. I want to win now, but I do care about concussion issues much more than before. We have heard about a good dozen who CTE has claimed. There are dozens upon dozens who need help.  I don't want to hear about the next player Dead at fifty. Safety absolutely has to come first, full stop.

This is where I'm at as well. I *loved* the energy and emotion in games back when there was a lot more fighting, but it's tough to see so many men dying so young, and their last years being spent in so much pain. When I was a kid, the constant message was "nobody really gets hurt in hockey fights" and that it was just fat lips and black eyes. Just check out this article from the CBC:

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/nhl-enforcers-study-1.6838788

2 minutes ago, Cheesesteak said:

reddit.nhlbite.com for anyone needing a new stream...that other site cut away from game and is stuck in some WPT loop

 

http://reddit.nhlbite.com

To add my bit to the pile... For anybody who has a VPN, this site has amazing quality:

https://nhl66.ir/

40 minutes ago, hmc687 said:

 

Precisely.  Arizona is a sorry franchise, just like you say.  So too is Buffalo, Columbus, and Anaheim.

 

You think Bettman and company wanted the next face of hockey to play THERE?!?  Or ANY of those places???

 

No chance.

This is such a silly point of conversation, just like most ridiculous conspiracy theories. Nobody can prove that the NHL didn't rig the draft in Edmonton's favour just like nobody can prove that the Easter Bunny doesn't exist. So what; it doesn't make it true.

46 minutes ago, hmc687 said:

 

NHL has a Canadian and Original 6 bias.  Always catering to those clubs.  Of course Buffalo and Arizona were robbed of McDavid and ofc Anaheim and Columbus were robbed of Bedard.

Arizona? The league has bent over backwards to keep that sorry franchise where they are, to the extent that they're now playing in a tiny college arena where the fans of opposing teams outnumber people cheering for the Coyotes. The team is almost literally just a dumping grounds for LTIR contracts.

19 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

I think a generational talent is one that comes along once in a generation and dominates it. It isn't 5 or 6  or 7 or 8 guys who put up points.

 

Crosby, as much as I hate to admit it as a Flyers fan, pretty much dominated his era. Not only did he put up more points than Kane, he did it playing a tougher position, while also playing solid defensively (Kane sorely lacks there) In about the same amount of games Crosby scored over 100 goals more and 150 assists more, while playing a 200 foot game. Add 70 more playoff points on top of that. 

 

Theres your generational talent. 

 

And I don't think anyone can argue he's handed it to McDavid. 

 

You're never going to see the Flyers get a generational talent picking 14 through 32 (someone elses pick) all the time. Maybe we get a franchise player out of Michkov. 

The term is nearly laughably over-used now. Generational talents are the sorts of players who start racking up numbers that nobody has seen in (gasp!) a generation or more. They're the sorts of players who pile up multiple Art Ross, Hart, Lindsays, etc. Patrick Kane has won a Hart, Lindsay and Art Ross and was, as you point out, a sub-par defensive player. Great player who had a great year, but it doesn't add up to Crosby, who has two Art Ross, two Harts and three Lindsays. It's light years away from McDavid who has five Art Ross, four Lindays and three Harts in only eight years.

Patrick Kane is a slam-dunk, first ballot of Hall of Famer. Not generational, though.

19 minutes ago, hmc687 said:

 

If the lotteries were truly random they would be drawn LIVE.  Otherwise its extremely suspicious the way certain teams win.  Specifically, EDM to win the lottery 2 times in 6 years (both 1OA wins) and retain the 1OA spot the two times they were 1OA favorites and for NJ to outright win 1OA twice and 2OA once in 6 years.

 

The statistical likelihood of the above scenario is poor.  Probably because it wasnt a statistical anomaly. Bettman and the NHL pick their winners

If anything, the Oilers winning the lottery in 2015 is evidence that the league doesn't rig the draft. There's no way they were hoping that Connor McDavid would land in the laps of a historically inept management team that plays its games in the most out-of-the-way market they could find. If they had their choice, McDavid would be a Ranger or Blackhawk right now.

3 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

Catton is good but considering Coots is shot and Frost our only other skilled center, is kinda small... I'd prefer Lindstrom, he's a better fit to balance out the team. I'm trying to build a balanced team of size and skill with finesse.  So that's a solid one two of Lindstrom and Frost with Coots as third line C.

 We already have three small or non physical dmen with Sanheim,  Drysdale and York as well. So if I'm building a balanced team, I'd like Lindstrom up front or Dickinson on the blueline. 

Frost has average NHL size for a centre, but I do take your point. A player can be small and effective, but small teams are easier to neutralize and you can't teach size...

49 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

I'd love to get either...at what price?

 

Catton certainly isn't big, but he's good everywhere and has a heck of an IQ. Over 50 goal scorer, leading the league in shorties. 5'11" and 170 in his draft year isn't terrible. That's about that Frost was in his draft year...he's put on about 20 lbs. 

Agreed. I think that drafting best player available is damned near always the way to go, with exceptions for things like prioritizing centres over wingers or players who are almost a year younger than the rest of the group. Drafting for current need is risky business. Players take time to develop, and your needs may be very different by the time they're ready, and that's if they even make it that far anyway.

I don't know who of those three will end up the better player, but I wouldn't let Catton being relatively thin dissuade me if I was pretty sure that he was the best bet.

2 hours ago, GratefulFlyers said:

I wonder why. IIRC UFA veteran D-men were pretty scarce at the TD.
 

Johnson has been knocked his whole career, which goes with the territory of an overall 1st sometimes. But some of the fanbase in Denver never warmed up to him. He may not be the greatest defender but he’s not useless either like some 2-way D-men can be. 
 

If he plays ~12mins, steady, calm, no glaring mistakes maybe delivers a big hit once in awhile imho he’ll be well worth the 4R.

No, I'm sorry. He's well past his expiration date and providing sub-replacement level play at both ends of the ice, especially his own.

8 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

 

I know I posted something about this not too long ago, and I think it's something like 2 or 3 teams in the last 20 or 25 years have won the cup without a 1st overall. Those are terrible odds.

 

Of course you need good management to build around or you won't go far. See Buffalo among others. You also need some luck...I'm sure if Philly had Barkov and Makar instead of JVR and Patrick our team would look slightly different. Edmonton used to pick high all the time in week drafts until they finally nailed it with McDavid. They haven't won, but he's still the first player I'm taking on my team for a cup run, so hardly his fault. 

 

I agree culture is huge. And the Flyers are finally addressing that. But talent is also huge. 

 

edit: I see JR touched on this the same time I was posting.

Even if you do everything right, you could come up against a team with a payroll approaching $100M in a league with a salary cap of $85M and get to listen to the analysts wax poetic about that team's incredible depth.

1 hour ago, GratefulFlyers said:

I'm not convinced "tanking" is the only path. Assets are bought and sold all the time. Maybe not the overall 1st pick but just about anything else. Briere will have to be creative on draft day...if not this year then next year.

Tanking can assure you of getting high quality picks, but a lot of things have to line up properly for it all to work.

You need to do it when the right player comes along. The term "generational talent" gets thrown around a lot these days. Sometimes it's used correctly, like with Crosby and McDavid and sometimes it doesn't, like with Bedard. You can still build around a player like Bedard, but I'm not entirely convinced that you should strip your organization completely of talent to get a player who falls short of that truly rare gift. The textbook example of this are the Oilers. In their case, they tried it with Taylor Hall, and he just wasn't the guy to empty to the cupboard for. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a very good hockey player, but his draft wasn't the deepest. Nail Yakupov was a disaster. Not all 1st overall picks, not even consensus #1s, are that guy.

It's one thing to shred talent, but it's another to build it back up. Sure, you can stockpile draft picks, but those picks need to be the right players with the right mix of qualities and at the right positions. You need the right people in player development. You need the right people in the AHL. You need an owner who keeps his nose out of hockey ops. You can't make mistakes there, or you wander in the wilderness.

You can't have bad luck. In 2019, the Oilers had Andrej Sekera carved out of their rebuild, due to an Achilles injury which ended his NHL career. The next season, Oscar Klefbom was forced to retire due to arthritis issues at only 26. Adam Larsson signed in Seattle the next off-season, because he couldn't bear to play hockey in the building next to the place where his father died.

Total rebuilds can work, but a lot factors (many of which are completely beyond your control) have to swing in your favour in order for it to go right.

37 minutes ago, thegx.ca said:

I like Stetcher he definitely improves their D...but still not enough considering all the adds Vegas/Peg/Dallas/Vancouver/etc all made...

Agreed. Kelly McCrimmon is the smartest, craftiest, most creative and devious General Manager currently at work in the NHL, and he had a strong deadline.

4 minutes ago, GratefulFlyers said:

 

But it wasn't "thrown away" and Eric Johnson is not a "washed up bum." He's just not.

 

Whatever you think of the plan - the rebuild or whatever - adding a D-man, which the Flyers truly need right now with all the injuries on the back end - for 18 frikkn games, 18 + the POs - c'mon is that really throwing a monkey wrench into the plan?

EJ is a replacement-level player now:

He costs $3.3M but is providing $800K in value.

10 minutes ago, FD19372 said:

I told you guys that somewhere, somehow, the Flyer ol’ boy network, still has some control.

The GM and POHO hiring were the obvious sign.

On 3/5/2024 at 9:47 PM, yave1964 said:

 Idk man, that was my initial thought but the whispers are getting that he is in worse shape than initially thought.

Here's why I can't help but be a little cynical about Stone being put on LTIR:

Man, it is so lucky that Stone's back always gives up the ghost just before the trade deadline, so the team can add a bunch of salary to their roster. How convenient.

1 hour ago, RonJeremy said:

It’s all about balance and being able to go up against any team and play any style. One dimensional teams always have to hope for a good matchup when the playoffs start, that’s one of the biggest problems Toronto had over the years.  They went up against some physical teams and couldn’t compete.  I know it’s hard, but you can’t be stacked in one area and weak in another and expect to win.

What's been galling is to see a guy the size of Matthews basically disappear when things get physical. Steve Stamkos, outweighed by 20 lbs, bullied Matthews a couple of playoffs ago.

17 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

Ok, THAT was funny. 

 

Briere hasn't fallen into the "Chuck Fletcher hole of ineptitude" or anything, as far as I'm concerned. The Seeler signing is in no way as stupid as the Risto trade, and then Risto signing of complete stupidity that will take the franchise years to recover from. 

 

For me, it was just the faint hope that we would FINALLY do a complete rebuild. Tear it down, draft a superstar or two, and enjoy the ride back up in hopes of winning that elusive cup before we're all dead. 

 

Instead, here we are in the middle of the pack, hoping Tortsie can squeeze one more ounce of juice out of that ol' orange rind. I just don't see adding a few twenty something picks to whats here already winning a cup. I hope to hell I'm wrong and I'd gladly eat crow. But when I watch teams hoist the cup and look at our roster, it ain't even close.

I'm sure that surreptitiously planted microphone would have picked up a lot of "he plays Flyers hockey!" sorts of things being said when they were talking about re-signing Seeler. I agree; it's not a crippling signing. I just think it doesn't serve to move the needle for the team in any way, shape or form.

For anybody worried that Seeler will be blocking a young defenseman: if that young defenseman can't move past the 3rd pairing guy who spends too much time defending, you have bigger problems to worry about.

16 hours ago, SCFlyguy said:

I just got to the part where they resigned Seeler.  That is incredibly dumb.

Paying a guy $2.7M at that age because he's too unskilled to do anything other than not get out of the way of the puck is not a winning move. 

 

My guess is he loses a step at 32 and is basically unplayable from that point on.

The Edmonton media and more than a few fans used to prostrate themselves by waxing poetic about the shotblocking of Kris Russell. I don't want to be misunderstood, because it's a good thing to block a shot. It's also true that if you're always blocking a lot of shots, the other team just has the puck too damned much. Those guys usually have a pretty rough transition into their 30s, as that sort of game really takes it toll on your body.