AJgoal

He makes some loose use of those numbers. For example, while he mentions Schlemko later on, he neglects to bring up that the Weise money is already essentially eaten up by Schlemko, so his calculation there is off. And the long term cap planning aspect is what is worrying thise of us that have concerns. Bill is also directly employed by the Flyers, so he will tend to paint everything in the most favorable light. I take him with a grain of salt anymore. I'm not panicking, but I am also not a big fan of all three of these moves together. Two would probably be ok.

it will be hard for him to crack 60 points if he doesn't get first power play time. If he does, that means that they've managed to fix the second power play unit and he was a factor in it.

By that logic, you could have just rolled with Patrick and Frost and then you still haven't traded Ghost.

A potential 2rw is not a good starting point for a puck moving defenseman who has shown that he can be one of the elite power play quarterbacks in the league. This is exactly what I mean by losing a Ghost trade badly.

A 3rw and a couple picks would be a terrible return for ghost.

I was asking re: Poehling.

What else are they adding to the package?

I hope he's right that they'd rather keep him, and of course, they should listen. I just worry that Fletcher not just loses a Ghost trade, but loses it badly. Not to mention he still has two RFA defencemen not locked up when teams could be lining up to throw around offer sheets (in general, not just at Philly). He could suddenly find himself short all of his puck moving LD (not likely, but possible). On top of that, moving Ghost means that you have one pair that's fairly inexperienced again, with Hagg-Myers or Morin-Myers. I guess you could do Provorov-Myers, but that's a lot to put on Myers right away.

I've actually suggested ghost at F for a couple of years so that you can use a F spot on him in expansion. Of course, mostly tongue in cheek...

He said trade Haag. Haag was quite possibly the worst defenseman in the league. He's also not likely to be a guy Dubas would want. He's an analytics guy.

You're only friendly when sheep are involved.

Except for me. I hate everyone here.

Yes, but will he score 60 goals? Good to see you back!

Confirmed. https://twitter.com/jasonmyrt/status/1141431417437675521 @jasonmyrt: Contract also has a full no-move clause the first 3 years, and a 12 team limited no-trade clause for final 4 years of the deal. https://t.co/QgHWNBAXcq

Welp. Full NMC for the first three years. So he must be protected in the expansion draft. EDIT: I should say that's what's flying around, but no word from McKenzie or Dreger yet, so it might be wrong.

that won't really work with the Flyer's cap situation. Marner's getting 11 million, so 6.5 more than Ghost, down to ~16.5 million. Still need Provorov, Konecny and Sanheim signed, and even if you dump Laughton and Hartman, you need to fill those slots PLUS 3C now, plus two more forwards. Patrick doesn't have enough cap to make it work. I really don't think a single trade works here. The Flyers would need to move out cap in order to sign Marner, so either Toronto has to clear space to accept a contract like Voracek, or the Flyers need to move out something expensive elsewhere for a whole lot of not much.

who is reporting that they're in on Marner? I would think that if they're going after him that you would see ghost and Konecny going the other way. There's really no other way that works. I guess Vorachek, but I'm not sure that the Leafs would be after someone older like him.

Cap is projecting low, 82 or less. Fliyers have 22 million in space with Provorov, Sanheim, Konecny, Laughton, and Hartman to sign. Plus they need two wings and a backup goalie. They gain a couple million when they demote Schlemko and Lyon, but Myers will take up most of Lyon's savings. If they move Hagg, that's up to 24 million, but it's still pretty tight, especially if you want a cushion for bonuses.

And then you're almost praying neither Lindblom, Patrick, or Myers breaks out this season, because you only have 8 million plus the cap increase to pay them with.

The Flyers really aren't in a position to pick up salary without salary going back anymore. That also means that they are all but definitely losing any probable trade that includes Ghost. It's also why I still think he may be on his way out. I'm petrified of the next move that isn't re-signing the RFAs.

Well, it would certainly make life even more interesting...

I was looking at Braun's metrics, and they're ridiculously weird. He grades out well in defensive attempt metrics, and is >50% in shot based percentage metrics, but his realized metrics are poop. 4th worst on ice save percentage and 5th worst on-ice shooting percentage can do that to a guy. He seems like he had a year like Sanheim did last year.

23 million left (Assuming a cap number of 83, which is seeming less likely by the reports) with Provorov, Sanheim, Konecny, Laughton, Hartman to sign, and a backup goalie, 3RW, and a couple of extra bodies needed. 24 once you move Schlemko down. Definitely not going to be a quiet offseason even after this.

Let me dial this back a little bit, because it's coming off as if I hate the move. On its own, I don't. Braun offers little in the way of offense, but his defensive metrics are solid. I think a 2nd and next year's third are maybe a tad bit of an overpayment for a defensive defenseman who's a one-rear rental, but it's not horrible (aside from killing certain offer sheet options). Of course, I would have preferred to see if that 2nd could have been in some sort of package for Spurgeon, but I digress. What bothers me is the pattern. Stolarz is a young goalie, some upside. Talbot is an older guy, had some success, but had had a couple bad years back to back. That trade value is fine, except that Talbot HAD to move so they could activate Sekera. Fletcher pays full value. Niskanen is coming off of two years of decline. Gudas is a nothing flashy, stay at home guy with decent instincts and good defensive numbers. Even if you agree that Gudas with 30% retained is equal value for Niskanen (I don't), the Caps are a division rival who are facing cap trouble. Again, full value paid. Braun is a steady, stay at home guy, signed for one more year. As I said, a 2+future 3 is probably fair value, or a bit of an overpayment. Yet again, the Sharks are in cap trouble, and you pay full value. I could see there possibly being competition for Braun, I'm doubtful on the other two. The pattern is the concerning part. If it was one move for one guy (especially if it was Braun), I wouldn't have too much of an issue with it. But so far there have been three trades where he should've been able to get a discount, and he failed all three times. That tells me that he's either 1 - bad at negotiating, 2 - bad at valuation, or 3 - bad at both. What happens when he goes after a player that a team doesn't need to trade? Do we get bent over? THAT is what I'm worried about - not the move in and of itself.