WordsOfWisdom

The fighting has always been a side show in the NHL. Something that had no place in the game. But having hitting in hockey is like having hitting in the NFL: that's the nature of the game. I feel like society today is so over-coddled that we're producing the most inept generation of humans to have ever existed, but maybe that's just me.

I'd rather have nobody playing defence than have Barrie back there. To me, he's terrible. So if by cheaper you mean "league minimum" salary, then okay we'll keep Barrie over Rielly to save some cap space.

I looked for those stats but didn't find them. Didn't want to have to do any data mining on that one either. (Trying to compile data to find what I'm looking for.) Sorry. It can, but it usually doesn't. I did the same analysis on the NYI that I did for TOR with the "Minus" stat. Here's what I got: Scoring Goals Assists Ice Time Point Shares # Player Age Pos GP G A PTS +/- PIM EV PP SH GW EV PP SH S S% TOI ATOI OPS DPS PS BLK HIT FOW FOL FO% DEFENCE 1 Cal Clutterbuck 32 RW 32 3 4 7 7 20 2 0 1 0 3 0 1 34 8.8 449 14:01 -0.2 0.8 0.6 35 108 4 5 44.4 0 2 Adam Pelech 25 D 32 1 6 7 5 18 1 0 0 0 5 0 1 41 2.4 675 21:06 0 2 2 73 62 0 0 -2 3 Leo Komarov 33 C 16 0 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 12 0 192 11:59 -0.1 0.3 0.2 6 39 11 25 30.6 -2 4 Ross Johnston 25 LW 18 2 0 2 0 47 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 156 8:38 0 0.2 0.2 6 58 1 0 100 -2 5 Casey Cizikas 28 C 27 5 4 9 6 16 3 0 2 1 2 0 2 39 12.8 400 14:48 0.4 0.7 1 26 82 231 178 56.5 -3 6 Johnny Boychuk 36 D 31 1 6 7 3 10 0 1 0 0 6 0 0 46 2.2 551 17:46 0.1 1.5 1.7 60 69 0 0 -3 7 Matt Martin 30 LW 20 2 1 3 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 14 14.3 209 10:28 -0.1 0.2 0.2 5 98 1 2 33.3 -3 8 Michael Dal Colle 23 LW 26 2 2 4 0 10 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 17 11.8 304 11:41 -0.2 0.4 0.1 10 34 3 1 75 -4 9 Devon Toews 25 D 32 3 10 13 5 8 2 1 0 1 8 2 0 56 5.4 635 19:52 0.9 1.9 2.8 33 22 0 0 -5 10 Nick Leddy 28 D 24 2 9 11 3 8 1 1 0 0 8 1 0 29 6.9 474 19:44 0.8 1.3 2.1 30 24 0 0 -6 11 Scott Mayfield 27 D 32 4 6 10 4 33 4 0 0 1 4 0 2 53 7.5 627 19:35 0.7 1.8 2.5 52 54 0 0 -6 12 Anders Lee 29 C 32 9 9 18 6 33 8 1 0 2 6 3 0 73 12.3 556 17:22 1.3 0.9 2.2 20 63 33 45 42.3 -8 13 Jordan Eberle 29 RW 22 3 9 12 -1 4 2 1 0 0 5 4 0 45 6.7 358 16:16 0.6 0.4 0.9 13 8 0 3 0 -8 14 Mathew Barzal 22 C 32 13 14 27 12 18 10 3 0 2 11 3 0 67 19.4 621 19:24 2.5 1.2 3.6 21 5 106 147 41.9 -9 15 Anthony Beauvillier 22 LW 32 10 12 22 8 6 7 2 1 2 9 3 0 66 15.2 567 17:44 1.8 1 2.7 18 37 6 2 75 -9 16 Ryan Pulock 25 D 32 4 12 16 0 6 3 1 0 2 8 4 0 73 5.5 697 21:47 1.2 1.6 2.9 61 37 0 0 -11 17 Derick Brassard 32 C 32 8 10 18 1 8 6 2 0 1 7 3 0 54 14.8 477 14:54 1.4 0.6 2 15 55 96 86 52.7 -12 18 Josh Bailey 30 C 32 8 14 22 -1 8 6 1 1 2 9 5 0 40 20 563 17:35 1.6 0.6 2.2 22 12 63 59 51.6 -17 19 Brock Nelson 28 C 32 12 14 26 3 16 10 2 0 4 12 2 0 100 12 597 18:39 2.3 0.8 3.1 25 26 287 256 52.9 -19

Yes, you're a bit late getting to this thread. Better late than never!

Please also ignore the goalies. Thanks. (I had to re-post since I had a formula error earlier.) So looking at this data, we can see that the Auston Matthews and William Nylanders of the Leafs are very weak defensive players. Until they develop a defensive game to go with the offence they provide, the Leafs are going to have a lot of trouble winning hockey games consistently.

I wanted to post this earlier but here you go. It's a little something I've been working on over the years in my spare time. Again, it's not perfect, but it's a way to measure how good a player is defensively using only the traditional/core statistics. Have a look: EDIT: Part-timers and goalies removed from list. The idea behind it is very simple... yet difficult for most people to understand. It's "Minus". It's the minus half of +/-. While it's not pleasing to look at, this is how many times said player was on the ice when his team was scored against... but only in those circumstances where +/- would have been affected. So allowing a goal while killing a penalty doesn't hurt you for instance. Now you see what I'm getting at with this... So looking at the data above, Tyson Barrie is the most disappointing Leafs player defensively, and Travis Dermott is leading this group. One thing this doesn't consider is quality of opposition, so keep that in mind too.

Yep. The team went into the playoffs ice cold. That's my point. Rielly has to be pretty weak defensively to only have a 0 +/- given how many points he gets. The guy is basically a forward playing defence. Anomalies do happen sometimes. Don't even remember him. However, in general, where you rank within your own team in +/- does matter. If your top forwards have 0 +/-, your team isn't a winning team. A strong team will have many + players on it. A weak team, exactly the opposite. The best defensive player on the team is the player who maximizes this formula: DEFENCE = +/- - (Points - Power Play Points) (Sorry that there's no better way to write that.) If you sort all the players in the league by that formula, you should see the best defensive players with the highest scores. It's not perfect, but it's close. Exactly. Well and that's a much bigger problem for Toronto. Fans were hoping that this group would be the next Crosby/Malkin, Toews/Kane, etc.. and I'm not sure if they've plateaued or not. Matthews is a consistent point producer, but he's "Mats Sundin" not "Peter Forsberg". Marner is a great playmaker, but is he "Adam Oates" great or "Mats Sundin" great? Right now there are plenty of other teams in the NHL with better forwards than the Leafs top guys. That calls into question whether we have the right core group here or not. They've been playing better lately, although they couldn't have been much worse a few weeks ago. Not sure what this group really is beyond a 90 point team.

It's as though we have the "Scott Niedermayer" in Rielly but we're missing the "Chris Pronger".

It has to be a team that is the opposite of Toronto: a team with an abundance of good defencemen and a total and complete lack of scoring. If you can find a team that has too many defencemen (which IS possible since Toronto has too many forwards) then I think you could get fair value in a trade there. But there's no way I would trade someone like Matthews unless there was a NORRIS TROPHY WINNER IN HIS PRIME coming back to Toronto. It would have to be the BEST defenceman in the GAME coming back to T.O. or no deal. I know people will say a defenceman is more valuable than a forward, blah blah blah, but this trade would be a mid to late 20's D-man for a young AM (potentially). The other team is basically acquiring a young Sidney Crosby, so yeah... it would be a #1 guy coming back to Toronto for that kind of talent. I'd prefer if Toronto didn't give away any of the decent guys we already have on D like Rielly. I know Rielly doesn't defend well, but teams need to have an offensive D-man as well if they want to win.

WHAT? Taylor Hall won a Hart trophy? In what universe?

Ahhh the modern day NHL..... where the biggest trades now involve teams trying to get rid of players they DON'T want rather than acquire the players they do. "You take our stiff and we'll take your stiff! Do we have a deal???" "Yay! We saved some cap space!"

Which is why the Leafs will probably acquire him. He fits PERFECTLY in Toronto's no-defence system. Plus he's a FORWARD... and Toronto needs to put more salary into its forward group. I'm sure we could move out some defenceman or maybe Andersen to get Kovalchuk. Surprised the Leafs haven't done it already.

Morgan Rielly this season has 22 pts in 34 games and is a +/- of 0. The offence is still there with Rielly, but the numbers say the team is weaker defensively without Hainsey. If anything, the loss of Hainsey has also hurt Rielly. In fact, Hainsey is a +5 on a dismal team in Ottawa this season, second best on the team.

How do you remember this level of detail? All I know is Hainsey was +30 (or whatever it was last season), the best on the Leafs if I recall, and the Leafs ditched him. Say what you will about +/-, but whatever he was doing last season was working with Rielly. The Leafs were a better team with Hainsey and they were a better team with Kadri than they are today. Other interesting tidbits: Based on how the team is playing, I guess Mitch Marner is the MVP of this team after all. The team couldn't win without him. Thoughts on recent game vs Oilers: This was another game where the Leafs were hemmed into their own zone and it looked to be going Edmonton's way before a gaff by the Oilers gave Toronto that late goal.

It's possible of course, but look how those teams are constructed. Correct me if I'm wrong but in Washington there's Ovie, and then nobody else making that kind of money. The Blues have some players on "bargain" contracts. They're not overpaying for forwards. The Leafs have zero room to add anyone to this team at the trade deadline. We know that nobody is going to take an overpaid player off our hands and give us a better player off their roster at lower salary in a trade, so how does this situation improve? The fact of the matter is, the Leafs are MAXED OUT. What you see now is what they are, and they will never improve. The Leafs are a cap max team that is maxed at ~90 points or so. They will never get into a top position with this group.

Salary Cap Era Stanley Cup Champions (Playoff Data) 2006 Carolina Hurricanes 73 GF 2.92 G/G (23rd) 61 GA 2.44 GA/G (T-1st) 2007 Anaheim Ducks 58 GF 2.76 G/G (T-21st) 45 GA 2.14 GA/G (1st) 2008 Detroit Red Wings 62 GF 2.82 G/G (T-12) 42 GA 1.91 GA/G (1st) 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins 79 GF 3.29 G/G (4th) 61 GA 2.54 GA/G (4th) 2010 Chicago Blackhawks 78 GF 3.54 G/G (2nd) 62 GA 2.81 GA/G (16th) 2011 Boston Bruins 82 GF 3.28 G/G (1st) 61 GA 2.44 GA/G (8th) 2012 Los Angeles Kings 56 GF 2.94 G/G (8th) 28 GA 1.47 GA/G (1st) 2013 Chicago Blackhawks 63 GF 2.73 G/G (T-11th) 45 GA 1.95 GA/G (1st) 2014 Los Angeles Kings 87 GF 3.35 G/G (1st) 68 GA 2.61 GA/G (11th) 2015 Chicago Blackhawks 69 GF 3.00 G/G (6th) 60 GA 2.61 GA/G (13th) 2016 Pittsburgh Penguins 73 GF 3.04 G/G (3rd) 55 GA 2.29 GA/G (1st) @hobie Umm yeah. You were saying? SIX TIMES in the salary cap era (up to 2016) the winner had the fewest GA in the playoffs.

According to the source I read: Chicago in 2015. LA in 2014. In fact, LA was 25th in GF but won the Cup being #1 in GA. The same cannot be said of a weak defensive team (looking at recent winners).

But I think what you can say about Chicago and Pittsburgh is that they won the Cup fairly early into their rebuild. The Penguins drafted Crosby and Malkin and won the Cup quickly before cap constraints pulled the team apart. Chicago did the same with Toews and Kane, etc. Both teams managed to get their Cup wins in before the salary cap "came knocking" and said "time's up, your Cup window is hereby closed". It took Pittsburgh a long time to get back there for the 3rd one, and they really managed to rape Toronto on the Kessel trade (which helped). So Toronto was as helpful to Pittsburgh's most recent Cup win as the Penguins roster was.

I love how this team fixes everything but the defence. I almost think it's a running gag/joke. Here's a bit of trivia for you: Name the last time the Leafs had the best GA (fewest goals allowed) in the league.

Yes but you're not expecting your backup goalie to be great, just good enough that he gives you a chance to win. Great backup goalies become starting goalies. I didn't watch every game that Hutchison played but in the ones I did watch, the goals were virtually unstoppable.

Is there a losing formula to win the Cup? In a salary cap league, the formula for success is to draft your core group, surround them with support players on bargain deals, and win before the entry level contracts of your core group need to be renewed. You basically need to get a group of players you can underpay and win during that window before their play warrants a sizeable raise. Once you're forced to start paying established star players what they're worth your team is doomed as far as the cap is concerned and you find yourself in the lose-lose position of either losing your star players or losing all the quality players around them.

So you're in favour of the Leafs doing a "mini rebuild" type of thing? What do we get back? Draft picks or active players? I think the forwards are the best part about this team. No doubt about it. We have some explosive scorers. The trouble is, how do you build around that in a salary cap league? Even if we had the #1, #2, and #3 best forwards in the NHL, and all paid accordingly, is that a winning team?

Overall I think he's been a decent pickup. I was more just frustrated at the circus that was the Leafs recent slump.

It's the new: "Our organization is moving in a different direction."