elmatus

Should have offer sheeted Labanc apparently.

Grab a twofer and a friend. No sense being half a** about it. I've got a kitchen here in need of a party.

There really is nothing wrong with having Hayes as a 2C next season. He's a decent plug for that spot given the limited options we have (read: none). There is something wrong with having an essentially unmovable Hayes for the next forever at too much money. The challenge is essentially a short vs long term one. It really isn't a knock on what we need for 2019-20 -- or at least it isn't for me. I have a hard time with a GM who only plans one season ahead. Fletch seems to be that kind of GM. Homer was also that kind of GM. I do not like that kind of GM. I want a team that is planning in a way to make them competitive for a length of time, and having a new McDud-like contract on the books for another seven years seems detrimental to me. That said, I do think it's possible Fletch is banking on getting an amnesty buyout at the next CBA. It's possible he sees that as his way of getting rid of Hayes, and so he might frankly not care about giving him all the stipulations and term. I guess that's forward thinking in a sense...?

Elliott is fine. Sure he's a bit injury prone, but he's only coming in as a back up, and we've got other options to bring up for play time if needed anyway. Again, Fletch has made a number of real head scratchers. We don't need to go digging after every little deal he makes. Elliott is just as fine as anyone else he was likely to get in such a limited role.

You forgot the rotating list of official popcorn dispensers.

To me, Ghost and maybe even Myers have more to offer than Niskanen or Braun. The question remains whether AV will play them to their merits or not though. Personally, I'd like to see Provo/Sanheim, but I don't think AV will set that given all the "we need vets" stuff they've been bandying about. Mind you, Ghost/Niskanen would seem defensively weak to me, so maybe not. At the end of the day, AV has a history of playing vets for the sake of playing vets. I don't imagine that'll change here in PHI.

It is when you consider we just signed another guy to way too much money and term. Having two such players around will only exacerbate our emerging cap issues. On that note, it seems amazing to me we're talking about potential cap issues in the near future. I feel like that's a convo we just haven't had in such a long time. We were always on the other side of the fence in fact.

Sanheim for two years is fine. Give him some fire to keep growing. Fletch has done plenty of head scratchers without us having to go on a witch hunt over what he eats for breakfast.

With the Hayes contract on the books, and Provo's camp saying they want term, I think this was probably the best case scenario for Sanheim.

Yeah Montreal isn't exactly where'd I'd go digging either, but I've seen them rumoured more than anyone. I feel like Hagg makes way more sense. Ghost is too valuable to trade for unproven players or for a 3RW or anything. Hagg on the other hand it doesn't really matter much. Maybe trade him for a 2nd rounder or whatever. Hexy probably would have gotten two firsts and Carey Price, but yeah, a 2nd seems fine. Hagg for a 3RW could be possible too. Byron? Armia? Shaw? It's kind of hard to judge value on Hagg honestly. If what MTL wants most is a bruiser, then he's definitely their guy. If they want a top four D, then Hagg ain't it. I have no idea what Fletch will do of course, but I feel like it doesn't make much sense to trade Ghost at this point. The only thing I could see would be some sort of package for a potential gamechanger like Marner, which seems highly implausible. As far as the habs go, they don't really have that kind of player to begin with. That said, I can't shake the feeling Ghost will be traded for less than he should, and it's going to bite us in posterior.

Yeah, I dunno. Ghost is the most likely still to be moved. At this point I'd rather he keep him really, but I don't know what Fletch would think to do. What would Homer do? The Leafs moved Marleau at little cost and signed their two other youngins. There's only Marner left now. I would be very shocked to see Marner traded anywhere. That guy has franchise material written all over him. I just can't see. The Leafs are going to pay him whatever he'll agree to, and he's going to be there for term. I just can't see it any other way right now. They'll find a way to make it work.

The Devils should be improved with Subban for sure, but there's no telling how good Hughes will be in year one. Still, it's safe to assume they will be better than last year. And in the next 2-3 years, they should continue to improve quite substantially. We may be looking at a new kingpin on the rise frankly. I think they still need a few more solid pieces to get there, but they're well on their way. A good friend of mine writes for pro hockey talk with MSNBC. Apparently their office has taken to using the term Ray Hero. The Rangers I don't think will be quite as good. Kakko is a rookie, so there's really no telling what he can do in a first year. Trouba I still think is overrated. I think they'll probably be similar to last year, maybe slightly better, but I wouldn't put much money on them for this coming season. If the Panthers get Panarin and Bob with Quenneville behind the bench, they're going to be stacked as hell. They're already bursting with talent. All Coach Q needs to do is figure out how to use it properly, and there aren't many coaches I would trust more with that task than him. If they do get those two, I can absolutely see them as contenders next season. I expect most will in fact. The only significant challenge they would have is they play in what is almost certainly going to be the strongest division in the league. Us? I think we'll be a bubble team still. I choose to believe we'll sneak into the playoffs owing to improved coaching and goaltending though. It'll be all about what AV and co. can put together with the pieces we already have. Mostly I'll be looking (again) to see what our younger players can do. If we do improve, it'll be because of them taking a step forward, combined with better systems from the coaches. I don't think we'll see a huge difference from the off-season acquisitions unfortunately. They're just not really impact players imo.

I feel like this forum would be pretty boring if all we ever wrote were one line replies. Personally, I come here to read and write rather more thoughtful posts.

I understand this is your opinion, but that doesn't make it objectively true. Some of us have a different position, and it is just as valid an option under the circumstances. It's all a question of projection at this point. Is the value Fletch brought in worthwhile when compared to what he has spent? I tend to not be a big fan of projections. I like measured estimates a lot better, and I try to rely on things like recent history and context. Given that, here's where I stand: Has Fletch improved the team? Well, let's look at what he's done. 1) He hired a whole slew of new coaches and has added a ton of experience behind the bench. Hex should have done this last off season. It's really that simple. The fact he didn't was baffling to virtually everyone paying attention. Hakstol was never an NHL-level coach. I remember defending him for the first couple years. I figured we needed to give him time to adjust. I liked that Hexy had gone off the grid to get a guy who wasn't just another NHL HC reject. Unfortunately, he did not pan out. Fletch fixed this problem in spades by bringing in three former HCs with a massive amount of combined NHL experience. My personal rank on this: A+ 2) He brought up Hart and allowed Gordon to play him for half of last season. I credit Fletch for this. Hexy was notorious for not wanting to bring up the kids until they were ripe (some would say overripe at times). Fletch came in and decided he wasn't going to sit on his hands with a potential stud goalie in the minors, and he brought him up. That was a great decision, and now we're going to have a goalie who is very likely to have ups and downs, but who has tremendous potential right from the first puck drop. My personal rank on this: A 3) Gudas for Niskanen. Gudas was better than folks often gave him credit for, but he was far from an elite-level guy. Moving him is fine if we can get a decent return. Niskanen is a solid dman. Judging by his stats, he should be good for 20 or so pts next season. That would be about in line with his typical production over the last bit. He's ostensibly being brought in to act as a mentor for our younger corps, which I think is a decent idea. Sure, Fletch probably didn't need to retain salary like he did, but I don't care much about that. Niskanen's contract isn't long, so it's not like we're stuck with him as he enters the back nine. Part of me worries he'll be leaned on more than he should given AV's tendency to ride vets over more skilled younger players, but maybe not. My personal rank on this: B 4) He got a rental in Braun for a 2nd and 3rd rd pick. I've mentioned here that I don't know Braun well. I have been reading up on him a fair bit since the trade, and to be honest I don't much like what I've read, but I'm willing to suspend my judgment here in Fletch's favour. Let's take him at face value. The consensus on his game is that he is basically a defensive dman. There is no offense to be found here. That's not something I care too much about. We're filled to the gills with young dmen who can score (Ghost, Sanheim, Provo, Myers). I have no problem bringing in a guy who's only job is a shut down one, assuming he does it well enough. How good is he? Well, the internet doesn't seem to like him much, but what do they know? People like to complain (*snicker*). Let's say he ends up being reasonable in the role he's given. He shores up the PK (something we desperately need) and allows someone like Ghost to not have to worry about defending, just join rushes and create offense from the back the way we know he can. All of this is a solid positive if it happens. The problem is this guy is essentially a rental. That would be fine if this team were a rental away from contention, or if the rental in question was a very high caliber player and we were hoping to somehow convince him to stay around, but Braun doesn't really seem to be either of these things. He appears to be a one and done guy brought in to shore up defensive duties for the 2019-20 season. Given that this team has been a bubble team now for years, it seems rationally implausible to me that they'd suddenly become contenders. So while he may (or not) make this team somewhat better for next season, his value is pretty limited. My rank: C (C- if Braun turns out to just be the new McDud on ice) 5) He bought out McDud. Yep. Absolutely he did. Any GM in their right mind would have done this though. I don't credit Fletch for this. It's exactly what needed to happen, but he's not the reason it did. He just happened to be in that position at this time. My rank: N/A 6) He signed Hayes to a 7x7 contract with NM protection from Seattle and 12T protection for the duration afterwards. I don't hate Hayes. Given what was available, I think he was probably the best we were going to get without trading someone. Personally, I would have been calling Vegas and TB to inquire about W. Karlsson and Point before making any decision, but let's say Fletch did that and nothing could be done. So he gets Hayes, arguably the second best UFA prospect available. I should note I actually advocated that he do exactly this earlier this year. I figured Duchene would want way too much money for what he brings, and that Hayes would stand to be much more reasonable in his demands. I still think Duchene will want way to much money, but now I see that I was very wrong on the second point. Hayes is probably reasonably worth something like 5.5M for five years. Given how UFAs always get paid too much, 6-6.5M seems okay for maybe five years or so. Judging by prior stats, he should be a 40-50 pt guy depending on usage. That's fine for a temporary 2C while we wait to see if Patrick or Frost can live up to the hype. He's apparently pretty good defensively, which is great. We need PK support. 7M for seven years is Fletch getting reamed up the back side. Adding Seattle protection and a partial NTC above and beyond all that is Homer-level bad (just about the worst on the scale for me and I would assume many many others, probably even you!). That to me is the kicker. At that amount of money and term, Fletch should have walked away and looked elsewhere, but he did not. Do I think Hayes is a reasonable add? Yep. Does he make this team better for next year? Yep. Is he worth what Fletch paid? Not a chance. Fletch should have found an option B. He should have dangled Ghost for a 2C. Someone would surely have gone for it. My rank: D- (I know there generally aren't any D-, but I gave one anyway. It would be a flat F if it wasn't that we needed a 2C more than anything this off season) So where does that leave us? Well, I do think the team will be better in 2019-20. Mostly I believe this because we no longer have a useless coaching staff and we finally have a goalie. Fletch's off season acquisitions also help, but I do not think any of these guys are gamechangers by any stretch. My prediction for next season? They end up 5-6th in the east. Depending on the first round match up, they may or may not make it to round two. Note this would have been many people's prediction for the team last year too. I'm choosing to believe it will happen this year. Projection long term? That Hayes contract is our new McDud, which sucks especially given we finally got rid of the last one. I was really looking forward to simply not having any terrible contracts on the books, but I guess that isn't going to happen. The best case scenario here is that the team gets an amnesty buyout after the next CBA, and we can get rid of him that way. Niskanen isn't here long term, so it's a wash really. Braun isn't either, which is great, but I actually happen to think 2nd and 3rd round picks are important. My long winded point here is that: saying Fletch improved the team without it being detrimental is only one possible projection. It's entirely possible he actually has made detrimental moves. Not a single person in the world knows for sure one way or the other. All we have is projection, and those can differ. Personally I'm torn on the moves, and I think I have plenty of justification for it.

At this point, there is really little reason to move him. That's not saying we won't move him, only that there's really no reason to do so. This off-season has been hard to watch. I went from being ambivalent but hopeful in Fletch's GM abilities to being stressful of what he might do next. Memories of the Homercoaster are flooding in. What wires together, fires together. Why Hexy had to go and open his mouth, and why he couldn't get rid of the Hak disaster before it was too late. I dunno. But, it is what it is I suppose. I do think the team should be better this year. Just the coaching and goalie upgrades are enough that we absolutely should make the playoffs at least. I also don't mind our off-season acquisitions, I just don't think they're the kind of guys who make us into contenders or anything, and what we gave up for the return seems... Well anyway. There's little we can do but watch.

Huh? That post was me saying I think Niskanen makes sense as a mentor type for our young dmen? I'm confused.

I could see him demanding 10M just based on past behaviour. My guess is he'll have to settle for around 9M, but who knows? And yeah, that's way too much money. But Hayes also happened. Honestly, it may be the entire NHL is moving to an economic model where a handful of players make inordinate amounts of the total cap on a team. Some teams have been like this for some time now. It's almost like we're seeing the rest of the teams start to do this now as well. As for what that means for the game long term -- I dunno. I'm happy to not be an NHL GM though.

I can't say I'm a big fan of trading away one of the league's best offensive dmen for a 25th pick with one game of NHL experience. It's going to take a bit more than one hat trick for me to be okay with that idea.

Puljujarvi is essentially another Patrick at this point -- great hype with little to show for it. Boeser would be great, but I can't imagine Van ever doing that. The Habs.. I dunno. I'm not sure they have anything I'd really care to get right now. I'm not a big Drouin fan. I'm not huge on Domi either (and I can't imagine the Habs would trade him right now). That's me of course. The way Homer Fletch has been running this off season, I'm going to say: To EDM: Ghost, Patrick, the 11th overall, and two more 1st round picks (2020, 2021) To PHI: Milan Lucic The good news is we all know how great the Oilers are at getting the best out of their high picks.

This is fine I guess, except I don't see Provo or Sanheim as Braun type players. They have way more potential than he does, particularly offensively. Both Provo and Sanheim have solid two-way potential, Braun does not. Niskanen to me makes more sense in this context than Braun. He may not be that guy anymore, but he was quite good for a number of years in his prime. I could see him being more of a mentor type than Braun.

Both. It was a rumour from Eklund yesterday.

I have to say I have a very different view over this. I'm ambivalent about getting a rental in JB, as that seems a move a team makes when they feel they're so close to a cup run, and I have no reason to believe this team is a contending threat right now. Granted, I know precious little about JB. But from what I've read, he doesn't exactly seem like a real impact player. I do know Niskanen much better, and I'm confident he is not an impact player at this point in his career. Hayes I'm fine with, but that overpayment is just... homeresque. Yeah we needed a 2C something fierce, but there just has to have been another option available out there. Again, I really don't mind Hayes at all, but 7x7 with the promise that he can't be exposed in the Seattle draft is just... aggravating. On the other hand, adding a potential franchise stud like Marner *is* a gamechanger now and in the future. That to me is exactly the kind of thing Fletch should be trying to do. I would much rather he do that then work around the edges by (hopefully) upgrading our dcorps, which personally I think should be vastly improved just by getting better coaching anyway. I just feel like everything Fletch has done has been at such a cost to the future. They seem like moves a contender makes to get over the hump (and not necessarily great ones at that). Sure, the team should be better *this year*, but it seems like poor planning to me that Fletch would go all in right now. There's just no realistic basis for that given the team and their performance over the last 9 years. In our case, these feel more like moves made to just get into the playoffs. And it's plenty arguable we would have been able to do that just with our current squad given better coaching and goaltending for a full season. Put another way, for all these moves to make sense, Fletch has to be banking on catching lightning in a bottle multiple times with multiple players (and coaches!). If that doesn't happen, he's essentially just made our future that much murkier in just one off season.

It's not impossible. It would depend on whether he can string together two solid years, and on who else we're going to have to expose. The main challenge we stand to have at this point is with our young dmen all figuring things out over the next couple years. If that happens, I have to imagine we'd lose one of them over Hayes. The other possibility here is an amnesty buyout following the next CBA. It's hard to say if this will happen at all of course, but given it has twice in a row now, it's certainly possible I would say.

TO's cap situation makes someone like Voracek unlikely I think. I have to imagine Ghost would be a part of this kind of trade. The question for me is what else would be involved. It can't really be someone with much money tied up, so maybe TK or even Patrick? Unless TO wants more dmen, then they could also ask for Sanheim. Ghost, Patrick, and the 11th overall? I'm spitballing.

That write up makes sense to me. I also hope they're wrong, but they make a lot of very reasonable points (not so unlike what a few of us here have been saying actually -- who's watching?!).