Now-and-then Caps conversation

[SaucyJack]

Were Phillips to now fade, be sent down to Hershey, struggle a few more years, and retire early to start life over at, say, 27 years old…

 

…then what Magic last night to score your only-ever NHL goal against your original  Mama Bear team.  At age 25.  
 

Make a movie, laugh or cry not sure which.

 

Or, he makes a real career in Washington.  Nobody knows yet.
 

 I went dooown, to the Crossroads;

   Fell down on my knees.

Went down to that Crossroads;

   Fell down to my knees.

Asked the Lord for Mercy,

   “Save me if you please.”

Edited October 17, 2023 by SaucyJack

[SaucyJack]

“Rookie” in goal for Washington tonight in New Jersey, one Hunter Shepard.  
 

Not your typical rookie, though.  Is somewhat successfully experienced:

 

1 - is 27 years old for starters

 

2 - two NCAA titles (Minn-Duluth) as a kid

 

3 - won Calder Cup in Hershey

 

The only NHL game tonight; potential many eyes on him.  “No pressure!”

[SaucyJack]

Best result of the year for Washington.  First lead (!) of the young year; took ‘em six games lol ‘bout time.  First regulation win.  First win for the ‘tending rookie despite a rocky middle game.

 

Will Coach Cranberry earn a better nickname, say, The Miracle Worker?  Let’s see…

[SaucyJack]

Now that Coach Cran has gotten one semi-decent win & comeback under the squad’s belt, what now?  Can it continue?

 

Tonight is a test:  Minnesota Wild, in DC Chinatown.  They have kicked our aces the past two seasons here and there.

 

The bigger test:  overcoming what must be a many-years long phobia for the veteran Caps:  having to play home games with confidence.  This squad which can play well on the road have to be amongst the Suckiest on home ice.  Gotta have worn on their psyches going home to wife of girlfriend year after year saying yeah maybe we think too much here at home gawd it sucks…

 

So, 9 of the next 11, starting tonight and ending the night after American Thanksgiving, are at home.  Ouch.  
 

 (Then things get more comfortable for the Caps, playing 9 of 11 on the road where they can play without the pressures and phobias until Holiday Time gives them an even mix of home and road.)

 

 

[SaucyJack]

Nicolas Backstrom said his hip was 100% entering this season.  Eight games, one assist, and zero goals later, he says uh uhn to that and has decided to take a break from the world’s fastest sport.  (Of which he’s never been overly so.)

 

At 35, one wonders if this is it, despite his contract that runs until 2025.  The tone of the WaPo article and teammate comments lead one to believe that the progression from IR to LTIR might not stop there.

 

Backstrom has assisted on just over 1/3 of Ovie’s career goals.

 

Remember the commercial he did a couple years ago, watching TV at Ovie’s place all the time and Ovie’s wife asking why he’s always hanging around there?  Well many perhaps knew, I did not until today…they are nearby walk-down-the-street neighbors for real.

[SaucyJack]

On 10/27/2023 at 11:28 AM, SaucyJack said:

The bigger test:  overcoming what must be a many-years long phobia for the veteran Caps:  having to play home games with confidence.  This squad which can play well on the road have to be amongst the Suckiest on home ice.

 

On 10/27/2023 at 11:28 AM, SaucyJack said:

So, 9 of the next 11, starting tonight and ending the night after American Thanksgiving, are at home.  Ouch.

 

On the road to Metro NYC for two, before 4 more at home to complete the 9 of 11.  How they doin’ home-wise so far in these first five games?

 

So-so.  If grownups ran things, they’d have snared 9 of the max 15 points with a 2-1-1-1 record.  Sounds decent…But all the wins were close and far from home-dominating.  And generally the Caps look poor in their ability to convert quality chances:

 

1) OT win over Minn was a “squirrely” game according to John Carlson.  Dominated possession mostly but easily could have lost since they cannot bury a puck often.

 

2) Narrow victory over un-mighty San Jose per lucky late ‘own goal’.

 

3) Columbus game similar to Minn contest; dominated play at times but only scored twice and won by one; and only because Charlie Lindgren stood on his head.  I’ll bet analysis revealed them lucky to win.  Again, burying pucks a low % proposition for them.

 

4) Drubbing from the Island Men.  Caps had no answer against their formidable outrigger canoes.

 

5) Even-Steven game vs The Cats for the parts I saw but lose in the OT.

 

At least they are holding their own in close games; part of the Caps Mission and Process to playing their way into a quality squad.  And with the forgiving standings rules, have a chance to eke into the top half after six months, so who knows.  Unlikely, but young’uns like Strome, Milano, and McMichael do have their moments.  I haven’t seen Phillips do much since shining against his old Calgary mates.

 

I wonder if they’ll take the train to NJ and The Island.  If so, a looong time for an NHL team not to get on a plane.

Edited November 9, 2023 by SaucyJack

[SaucyJack]

Wow, probably nobody had Washington at 8-4-2 at this point.  But hard to know if they are a real contender.  
 

Two road wins (NJD, NYI); then beating Vegas.  But VGK missed on 4 breakaways (one short-handed on a major) and 1 open slot shot after a 3rd period turnover.  Any conversion of thise 5 “Golden” chances would have made it 1-1.  Charlie Lindgren won that game for the Caps; the defense is suspect and the PP is amongst the worst in the league early in the season.

 

But Strome had a good snipe, and the team is faster without Backstrom.  Even Ovie has been sighted passing a puck.  
 

Jury’s out, let the young’uns keep playing.

[SaucyJack]

Last night’s home loss to NJ was a very bad sign for the Washington Capitals Hockey Club.  To me, a very bad harbinger of things to come.

 

I watched about the last half of the contest.  Saw the Caps tie it 3-3 only to let the visitors score 3 unanswered from that point.

 

The Caps are missing a D-Man and a goalie (but having three total) but they’re pretty much full strength.  Even Ovie is beginning to adjust to getting a few goals with the wrister instead of his now-ineffective slapper.

 

==> But it is the same ‘ol same ‘ol…no matter their energy (good last night) they lack sufficient level of “deke ‘em out” fancy-move offensive skills.  Not enough of their high quality chances end up in the netting.  Their shootout attempts often look pathetic, as if they’d  never played pond hockey when they lived as kids in Canada.
 

The only way they make the Cut in April is if they wear themselves out winning a sufficient % of games through too-high-for-regular-season effort.  Then they’ll get gassed 1st round.  And this is the most optimistic scenario.

 

Not enough to shed away Backstrom, Oshie, Ovie, Carlson…any young’uns in their place need well-honed dipsey-doo fake-em-out skating (and sniping) prowess.  Need the Skill Average of the team to rise, apart and distinct from effort. 

[SaucyJack]

On 1/4/2024 at 1:16 PM, SaucyJack said:

a very bad harbinger of things to come.

 

 

A day’s rest, and a home tilt against another squad roughly even in the standings.

 

Outplayed, bad penalties, give up 5 goals (2 EN) in the 3rd.  Fans commenting in the WaPo game recap see the End coming.  Doom and gloom so far in 2024 other than one narrow win over hardly-top-rate Pittsburgh…

 

…at least the Pen’s top gun of the past fifteen years is still good enough to get picked as an all-star.  (Not questioning the Wilson over Ovechkin decision.)

[SaucyJack]

On 1/6/2024 at 10:18 AM, SaucyJack said:

Doom and gloom so far in 2024 other than one narrow win over hardly-top-rate Pittsburgh…

What I meant to say instead of “in 2024” was “since the Holidays”, or “since Dec 23rd” more precisely:  1 narrow win, 4 regulation losses, 2 OT losses.  Bah, humbug!  

 

So go figure- while most were watching Week 18 of the National Foosball League, the Caps erased a 3-2 deficit midway in the 3rd to win a Sunday matinee against those nondescript L.A. things.  Thereby sweeping the 2-game season series, leading many Caps fans to say, let us play L.A. more often and God bless us, everyone!

[SaucyJack]

Darcy Kuemper.  Ring any bells?  (Oh yeah recently won a Cup in Denver.)  
 

Played 2nd string in back to back weekend matinees against the Rangers, behind Charlie Lindgren.  You don’t need a weatherman to tell you which way the wind is blowing, as Bob Dylan noted decades ago.  Of both Caps shutouts this season, Lindgren earned both…

 

….until tonight.  Kuemper blanks Anaheim 2-0 thanks to an empty netter.

 

Of course, it was the lowly DUCKS.  

Maybe the wind is swirling juuust a wee bit now though.

[SaucyJack]

Woo hoo…go wild, Warroad Minnesota!  Osher’s got ‘im another Hattie, sixth of his career!

 

(And on Country Music Night no less, where Caps fans received, you guessed it, cowboy hats.)

 

 

[SaucyJack]

Losers of six straight, lowering their making-the-playoffs odds to 3%, with a trip to Beantown and the mighty Bruins earlier this afternoon, that I missed.

 

The Capitals win this game ?!?  In a 3-0 blanking of the Conference Top Dogs ?!?  In their rink ?!?

 

My head just asploded.    

 

[SaucyJack]

Thanks to a 3-game winning streak, the Caps have quintupled their playoff chances in a mere two weeks from 3% to 16.5%.
 

A must-win last night in Lightning Land.  Young Swedish D-Man Rasmus Sandin saves the club from two early 3rd period defensive lapses to bag the game winner with 5 minutes left against a club that Washington is desperately chasing.

 

It’s still a bit bleak, but a big upset win Saturday night in greater Miami, then staving off Ottawa at home, and then a huge road win against another chase-em-down club in Detroit, would be a remarkable finish to February, and a welcome continuation of recent good fortune.

 

”Keep Hope Alive”, as they say.

[SaucyJack]

On 2/23/2024 at 11:00 AM, SaucyJack said:

big upset win Saturday night in greater Miami, then staving off Ottawa at home, and then a huge road win against another chase-em-down club in Detroit, would be a remarkable finish to February, and a welcome continuation of recent good fortune.

Alas, a glass half full.  Or should I say empty.  Yes, an Ottawa win, but a late lead blown to Florida resulting in 1 point, then last night’s butt-smacking by Detroit that left Charlie Lindgren as forlorn as I can recall all year.  (Even though it was 2nd of a back to back, 3rd in 4 nights, and 5th in 8 nights, the Caps shouldn’t be outclassed and out-skated that badly.)

 

5.9% is what moneypuck says this morning.  A few in the WaPo comments advise not being fooled by a few recent wins to forgo being a seller this spring.  

[SaucyJack]

Capitals get some reprieve in the first third of March (4 games) not playing the teams in what I perceive as the Top 11.

 

Their Fates will likely be decided in 11 games played between Mar 11th and 30th, starting with their Western Canada trip.   Nearly all Top 11 teams in this most difficult 20-day stretch:

 

@wpg @edm @sea @van @cgy 

tor car wpg det @tor bos 

 

Should be Murderer’s Row.  April not as bad, a mix of best, middle, worst.

Edited February 29 by SaucyJack

[SaucyJack]

A gawd-awful loss at home to a woeful Coyotes club.  These guys don’t get that they HAD to take all 8 points from these first 4 games in March, before 9 of the last 11 contests ending the month are against elite foes.

 

Just horrible to lay an egg like this.   (Easter is still several weeks away, after all.)

 

AWFUL

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/03/03/kuznetsov-waivers-capitals-coyotes/

 

 

[SaucyJack]

TJ Oshie’s 1000th game was worth the wait as Washington improbably defeat the mighty Canucks in Vancouver.  I suppose tonight makes up for the dreadful home loss to Arizona two weeks ago.

 

We can’t kill these guys.  Outscored 12-6 on this road trip, the Capitals nevertheless are 2-2 overall, and with a realistic shot at 3-2 with a win Monday night in Calgary.

 

One point behind Detroit for the final spot, with a game in hand.  But, the next 6 games after Calgary are against tough foes all.  (Except maybe the aforementioned Red Wings, who after manhandling Washington recently are in their own seeming death spiral now.)

 

 

[SaucyJack]

This is a joke…roit?  Tell me they’re joking.

 

 

[SaucyJack]

On 2/28/2024 at 10:41 AM, SaucyJack said:

5.9% is what moneypuck says this morning.

That was 26 days ago.  Now look what moneypuck.com says after yesterday’s (Sunday 24th March) results, after the nice pre-game ceremony the Capitals gave TJ Oshie before defeating road-weary Winnipeg:

 

Greater than a 50/50 shot.  Holy sh!te!

 

And no wonder, with games in hand they are ahead of Detroit and right on Philly’s heels:

 

 

I would say, just per a rough Eye Test, that Washington is improved over two months ago in their ability to skate, and break out of zone.  They have not been seriously outplayed since the road losses to Winnipeg and Edmonton a week and a half ago, and before that the game in Detroit 3 and 1/2 weeks ago.  (The recent Toronto loss was one where I thought went against the skate of play.)

 

The Capitals *must* “condolidate their break”, as would be said in tennis circles, by defeating Detroit in the Wings’ lone visit to Capital One Arena tomorrow (Tuesday) night!

Edited March 25 by SaucyJack

[mojo1917]

Getting hot at the right time, as they say.

 

[SaucyJack]

On 3/25/2024 at 8:32 AM, SaucyJack said:

The Capitals *must* “condolidate their break”, as would be said in tennis circles, by defeating Detroit in the Wings’ lone visit to Capital One Arena tomorrow

Thanks to Patrick Kane’s bullet from the mid-slot with 5 minutes to go, the Caps are denied the coveted 2-point gain over the Wings.  It’s a 1-point gain though, thanks to Dylan Strome in OT.  So, Washington sort of “held serve”.  

 

Meanwhile, it’s a 1-point gain over the Flyers, too, per their OT loss at NYR.

 

Just last night’s action, according to moneypuck , means that playoff odds changed thusly:

 

Philly: -1.6%   (87.2 to 85.6)

Wash: +7.6%  (57.9 to 65.5)

Det:  -7.7%      (37.3 to 29.6)

 

Seems a bit too much change in odds for the Caps and Wings but I’m not the professional mathematician here.

 

Now… can the Capitals do better than they have against the Maple Leafs this year, tomorrow night, as Ovie & crew make their lone appearance in Toronto?

 

[SaucyJack]

Long time no see…

 

Oct 12th, 2022:  last visit by Boston Bruins to Washington Capitals until tonight, March 30th, 2024.

 

1 leap year, 5 months, and 18 days between visits.

 

(Weird scheduling for the Capitals this season: both Boston visits and both road games to Buffalo are in the last 18 days of the campaign.)

 

 

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

8 hours ago, SaucyJack said:

Long time no see…

 

Oct 12th, 2022:  last visit by Boston Bruins to Washington Capitals until tonight, March 30th, 2024.

 

1 leap year, 5 months, and 18 days between visits.

 

(Weird scheduling for the Capitals this season: both Boston visits and both road games to Buffalo are in the last 18 days of the campaign.)

 

 

 

 

 

Caps and Flyers square off the last game of the year.

 

I wonder if it will end up winner makes the playoffs and loser goes home?

 

Either way should be an interesting race to the end.

 

With Ivan Fedotov coming into the fold I do feel a little bit better about the goaltending situation now.

 

We'll see soon...

[SaucyJack]

8 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

Caps and Flyers square off the last game of the year.

 

I wonder if it will end up winner makes the playoffs and loser goes home?

You bet.  The schedule-makers got this matchup right!

 

I was lovin’ those two late Florida goals this afternoon until Detroit tied things on the power play.  At least the Wings lost the shootout and only got 1 point.

 

Keep the Wings out, and both Caps and Flyers advance.  That last game could still be vital for seeding.