Any guesses where Phoenix Coyotes franchise ends up?

[hawetr]

Winnipeg will do alright. I'm surprised no mention of Houston getting a team

[radoran]

You're dead wrong on this one rad. The difference is massive. The dollar, the CBA (cost certainty), new revenue streams, deep pocketed owners, the list goes on and on. You realize that STHs had to commit to 3 and 5 year commitments right? Think about that for a second. This was like buying a car for most people in terms of the scale of the commitment. That means revenues that are entirely predictable and reliable for 3-5 years. They have community and government partnerships for expanding/enhancing the arena. I could go on and on.

And to others who think the team "sucks ass," I'd say they need to consider that it has a number of exciting prospects (e.g. Burmistrov, Bogosian, Scheifele etc) and management with a proven track record at developing prospects (e.g. Kessler, Bieksa, Edler, Burrows, Hansen etc etc)

In terms of arena size, I'm still quite right - they currently have relatively the same sized arena that didn't work before. Yes, there are plans to expand it. No, it isn't expanded yet.

Yes, the Canadian dollar's strength at the moment is a boon, as is the "cost certainty" of the CBA. How many of their STH's are going to be thrilled to pony up big bucks when their initial contract runs out to see a team that (potentially) still hasn't made the playoffs?

I'm not saying it "can't work" but this is a franchise with one playoff appearance and zero playoff wins in its history. The team is 13th in the East and tied for third worst record in hockey. As I look at it, I can't say that there's any reason to believe that any of that will change next year. Or the year after that.

"Exciting prospects" or no, how long will Winnipeg (or any place but, say, Tronno) support a chronically underachieving, losing franchise? NHL level hockey has already failed in both Winnipeg and Quebec once. Hell, Pittsburgh was at the verge of losing the Pens before their chronic losing led to a ridiculous number of high draft picks.

Again, I *hope* Winnipeg works out. But I'm not betting the chicken coop on it, much less the whole farm.

Edited November 17, 2011 by radoran

[Podein25]

Yeah, and there are no guarantees in life other than death or taxes, so what?

I guess my point to you is that you are exaggerating the impact and importance of the arena size. They factored it into the ticket prices. It's not an issue and if it was, it's been addressed through the business plan.

I agree with you, I suppose, that if the team still sucks 3-5 years from now, that's a problem and interest/excitement will surely wane. But my point is the hockey people they have their have a proven record. They have said they will build through the draft. They will be smart. I think they will succeed which, for me, means they are a playoff team. Fans may well have their own measure of success.

[radoran]

I'm definitely in the "glass half empty" side of Winnipeg and you're "half full" - which is perfectly fine from where I sit. I'm looking at it purely academically - I have no dog in this fight.

That said, if you had $100, how much would you put down on Winnipeg making the playoffs in the next three years? I'm fairly familiar with the team - have Enstrom on my FHL, frequently have Pavelec when available and have had Kane and Bumistrov - and I can't see them challenging even for eighth given the competition. Nik Antropov is your leading scorer? NIK ANTROPOV? lmao

I'd put down $20 if I could get any favorable odds. Straight up? No thanks.

In Other News: how pathetic is it that Dallas is drawing 10K a game and leading their division? And did someone really say "Houston"??

[Podein25]

Fair enough rad. Just so we are clear: I know where you are coming from. I was saying that your academic opinion was lacking facts (about the "small arena" issue and revenue implications, which have been addressed through the business plan, in particular, ticket prices).

I'll take $20 straight up that says Wpg will indeed make the playoffs within the next 3 years (starting this year). People forget that for much of the year last year ATL was in the playoffs. The wheels fell off pretty late, for a bunch of reasons, but they played like a playoff team and had the record of one for much of last year.

Edited November 17, 2011 by Podein25

[hawetr]

there was talk of Houston in the past, and if it doesn't make sense it could happen with Bettman

[radoran]

Fair enough rad. Just so we are clear: I know where you are coming from. I was saying that your academic opinion was lacking facts (about the "small arena" issue and revenue implications, which have been addressed through the business plan, in particular, ticket prices).

I'll take $20 straight up that says Wpg will indeed make the playoffs within the next 3 years (starting this year). People forget that for much of the year last year ATL was in the playoffs. The wheels fell off pretty late, for a bunch of reasons, but they played like a playoff team and had the record of one for much of last year.

The NHL wouldn't have put a team into Winnipeg without a business plan that they believed could work. Of course, they would argue that was the same for Phoenix. And I'd say that, with history and culture, Winnipeg has a better shot at having a successful franchise than Phoenix despite being about 1/6 the size in their Metro area (695K vs. 4.1M).

You'll note that Phoenix is currently 4th in the West and have been to the postseason the past two years. If I was Winnipeg, I might have wanted to wait a year to have the "real" Jets come back rather then get all hot and bothered over a team that "almost" made the playoffs last year.

That said, I believe I got into all this with the concept that Canada "deserved" another team, which was the context for the Winnipeg discussion. I remain unconvinced that Canada "deserves" another team - but if, say, Quebec comes up with a workable plan and a decent arena - kudos to them!

[Bertmega]

1) Kansas City new arena with an already failed franchise. That alone tells Buttman that it is a good relocate

2) Quebec

3) Las Vegas

4) Seattle

[Podein25]

I might have wanted to wait a year to have the "real" Jets come back rather then get all hot and bothered over a team that "almost" made the playoffs last year.

Good point, but I think from a medium/long term perspective, it's debatable whether PHX is/was the better franchise to get. In fact, there are stories out there that ATL was the team that WPG coveted all along.

And, back to your point: I'm not certain that Quebec or any other Cdn city "deserves" a franchise necessarily. Except for Toronto: they could really uses an NHL hockey team one of these years B)

[radoran]

Good point, but I think from a medium/long term perspective, it's debatable whether PHX is/was the better franchise to get. In fact, there are stories out there that ATL was the team that WPG coveted all along.

And, back to your point: I'm not certain that Quebec or any other Cdn city "deserves" a franchise necessarily. Except for Toronto: they could really uses an NHL hockey team one of these years B)

Quebec is apparently clamouring to get the Islanders - THE ISLANDERS - to come there.

Talk about desperate...

Of course, you'll note they're not coveting the Leaes...

WPG has some good parts, but IMO doesn't stack up well against other franchies.

[idahophilly]

60% says' kansas city there's a new arena with no tenant, 40% Quebec where they have a crappy arena with no tenant,

Totally agree and that's not just because of those tight shorts! Milwaukee would be VERY interesting though.