Too many forwards

[yave1964]

With the love fest between Babcock and Dan Cleary resulting in Cleary returning for at least another year the team has 17 forwards in camp and a need for either 13 or at most 14 to break camp.

The list:

 

Mortal Locks:

 

Franzen

Alfie

Weiss

Datsyuk

Zetterberg

Cleary

Abdelkaer

 

Near Locks

 

Tatar

Miller.

Andersson

 

On the Bubble

Nyquist

Helm

Bertuzzi

Samuelsson

Tootoo

Eaves

Emmerton

 

  Basically as i see it ten spots are sewn up barring injury with seven men fighting for three or at most four spots. The most likely scenarios:

 

Helm placed on long term I.R.

Forces Wings to keep emmerton (11)

Nyquist, as the only one not out of options is sacrificed unfairly and sent to Grand Rapids.

Bertuzzi and Samuelsson (if healthy) take two remaining spots (12,13)

 

LEAVING:

Eaves and Tootoo to fight it out for the final spot.

 With Helm out, Eaves is a solid Penalty killer and will have to be kept. As Bertuzzi, Tootoo and Samuelsson have absolutely zero trade value, releasing Tootoo and placing Helm on IR get us under the cap and set us up nicely for when (not if) Berts back goes out or Samuelsson breaks a pinkie, so we can recall the much worthier Nyquist.

  Forward lines at the start of the season would then be:

Alfredsson  Datsyuk  Zetterberg

Franzen      Weiss     Samuelsson

Cleary         Andersson  Abdelkader

Miller           Emmerton  Eaves

 

Reserves/healthy scratches  

Bertuzzi Tatar

 

  I believe Tatar is more likely to make the team than Nyquist even though i believe Nyquist is the more talented player simply because of being out of options. Dont get me wrong, i like Tatar, a lot but love Nyquist, he is an nhl ready top nine and posssibly top six right now. The numbers game hurts him the most.

  Teams that may be willing to take on salary to get to the floor need to be on Kenny Hollands speed dial. If he could get someone to take Bertuzzi or Sammy at this point of their career without having to eat much salary he would deserve executive of the year.

 

2014-15 will be a transition year, Bertuzzi, samuelsson, Cleary, Alfredsson Tootoowill all likely be gone, with new blood Landon Ferraro, Riley Sheahan, crazy talented Calle Jarnkrok, Martin Frk, Tomas Jurco and this years first round pick Anthony Mantha all battling for spots. It will be a changing of the guard, so to speak. This is the last year of the slow old grizzled experienced vets, a final charge of the light brigade before skating off into the sunset. The salary freed up and the higher cap number will allow us to finally go add the top pair defenseman we need for that year and going forward. The team is built for the present and the future.
 

[SpikeDDS]

Mortal Locks:

Franzen

Alfie

Weiss

Datsyuk

Zetterberg

Cleary

Abdelkaer

Near Locks

Tatar

Miller.

Andersson

On the Bubble

Nyquist

Helm

Bertuzzi

Samuelsson

Tootoo

Eaves

Emmerton

Basically as i see it ten spots are sewn up barring injury with seven men fighting for three or at most four spots. The most likely scenarios:

Helm placed on long term I.R.

Forces Wings to keep emmerton (11)

Nyquist, as the only one not out of options is sacrificed unfairly and sent to Grand Rapids.

Bertuzzi and Samuelsson (if healthy) take two remaining spots (12,13)

LEAVING:

Eaves and Tootoo to fight it out for the final spot.

With Helm out, Eaves is a solid Penalty killer and will have to be kept. As Bertuzzi, Tootoo and Samuelsson have absolutely zero trade value, releasing Tootoo and placing Helm on IR get us under the cap and set us up nicely for when (not if) Berts back goes out or Samuelsson breaks a pinkie, so we can recall the much worthier Nyquist

Forward lines at the start of the season would then be:

Alfredsson Datsyuk Zetterberg

Franzen Weiss Samuelsson

Cleary Andersson Abdelkader

Miller Emmerton Eaves

Reserves/healthy scratches

Bertuzzi Tatar

I believe Tatar is more likely to make the team than Nyquist even though i believe Nyquist is the more talented player simply because of being out of options. Dont get me wrong, i like Tatar, a lot but love Nyquist, he is an nhl ready top nine and posssibly top six right now. The numbers game hurts him the most.

Teams that may be willing to take on salary to get to the floor need to be on Kenny Hollands speed dial. If he could get someone to take Bertuzzi or Sammy at this point of their career without having to eat much salary he would deserve executive of the year.

2014-15 will be a transition year, Bertuzzi, samuelsson, Cleary, Alfredsson Tootoowill all likely be gone, with new blood Landon Ferraro, Riley Sheahan, crazy talented Calle Jarnkrok, Martin Frk, Tomas Jurco and this years first round pick Anthony Mantha all battling for spots. It will be a changing of the guard, so to speak. This is the last year of the slow old grizzled experienced vets, a final charge of the light brigade before skating off into the sunset. The salary freed up and the higher cap number will allow us to finally go add the top pair defenseman we need for that year and going forward. The team is built for the present and the future.

Great minds think alike. I think Andersson should probably go from Near-Lock to Lock. IF Helm returns, he will center the 3rd line (more likely) or if not, the 4th if he's playable but not that close to 100%. Andersson will center the other line, whichever it is. I think Babs was impressed with Andy's defensively-minded play last year. It particularly stood out because of its contrast with Brunner (and to a lesser degree Nyquist). The only question for Andy is WHICH line.

Other than that, I agree with everything else you said. My prediction is that Gus is going to play so well in GR that he is going to force the Wings to bring him up, even if there isn't an injury. This is going to REALLY test to see if Babcock really believes it when he says that players determine whether they play or not. This will put Gus' play up against the politics and realities of the team trying to keep as much talent as possible. Barring injury, something will have to give, and it'll be interesting to see if there isn't a major injury how that will work itself out. Gus will be real smart if he can play his guts out to prove he belongs up here, and I have a feeling he will. It would be "nice" if an injury made the decision easy, but I'm hoping he forces a decision even without an injury to help force one.

Edited September 16, 2013 by SpikeDDS

[WingNut722]

2014-15 will be a transition year, Bertuzzi, samuelsson, Cleary, Alfredsson Tootoowill all likely be gone, 

 

 

Don't count out CLeary for next season yet.  LIke you say, "The Love Fest" will continue.  Cleary intends to play until he's 39-40 years old.  And the elevated cap ceiling next year will allow Holland Co. to extend a multi-year deal to him for the rest of his playing days in the red-and-white, and also make up for the paycut he's taking this year.  

 

Darren Helm will likely be back.  His back appears to be getting better and the ground strain, while not a simple injury, is temporary.  Expect him back by the third or fourth week of the regular season.  I expect Holland will deal and live up to the Executive of the Year moniker.  Eaves and Emmerton should be traded.  There talents are more then covered with the remaining squad.  Nyquist will likely be moved but only as a secondary contingent.  I also think the Red Wings are bent on keeping Bertuzzi on the ice, but Samuelsson and Tootoo are looking to be moved.  Your Top 9 forwards are probably correct (although maybe not in those line combinations) but I would be willing to bet that the fourth line consists of Miller, Helm, and Bertuzzi.

 

Tatar is staying.  He's too good to let go so easily, and he can't be transferred to the minors without a trip down the waivers, and that will not end well for the Red Wings.  So the Top 12 looks like this:

 

Alfredsson  Datsyuk  Zetterberg

Franzen      Weiss     Samuelsson

Cleary         Andersson  Abdelkader

Miller           Helm      Bertuzzi

 

And let's put Tatar and Eaves on the bench to be rotated in and out pretty regularly.  That leaves Emmerton and Tootoo on the auction block and Nyquist likely back in Grand Rapids to defend the Calder Cup another season.  Holland needs to free up about $2.4 million to get under the cap, and this scenario gets him $2.68 million.  Plus, a younger team like Edmonton or the Islanders with a bit of cap space left, might appreciate the opportunity to take a young but experienced center with decent capability in the face-off circle, and a fearless, but loyal enforcer who can protect their star talent while they develop.  

 

Ya listenin', Kenny???

Edited September 16, 2013 by WingNut722

[jammer2]

@WingNut722  I think it was a Free Press article I read yesterday, where Holland stated that Tatar will indeed be part of the forward group the Wings will carry. Think he said he would be part of 14 forwards they will carry.

[WingNut722]

@jammer2  Yup, that makes sense.  And validates my conclusions!  He's too good to try and take the gamble of sending him back to Grand Rapids.  It's the Winged Wheel or bust!  Either way, Holland's got to get rid of some baggage, and I'm sure he'll be runnin' up the cell phone minutes.  Maybe he even had little lunch meeting with Ray Shero this afternoon before tonight's game with the Pens!

[jammer2]

@WingNut722  Here is the story I read....

 

 http://www.freep.com/article/20130916/SPORTS05/309160030/Tatar-gets-chance-make-case-Wings-forward-competition

[Haliax]

It drives me nuts that Holland felt for whatever reason that he needed to sign Cleary. He takes up space that should be used on developing younger players, and we were already cluttered to begin with. Tatar on the bench is a waste. He should be getting minimum 14-15 minutes a night, with second unit powerplay time. Same goes for Nyquist. If he ends up in Grand Rapids, I hope he decides to bolt from the organization as quickly as possible. The Wings are stunting his development and costing him money.

[yave1964]

@Haliax

 

  The Wings as an organization are known for not rushing players to the NHL, they learn the Wings system and hit the NHL experienced and tested, ready to play. Howard took forever, Kronwall, Kindl, Ericsson, we just do not rush our players.

  Nyquist, i agree with you is a special talent, i believe he is top nine easily right now, and possibly even a top six forward in the NHL this year. Sadly, he is the only one with options so unless we can swing a deal or even two the best hecan hope for is to ride the I-96 shuttle when players get injured. A friend of mine compares him to Val Filpulla, which i believe is unfair. Val could play but only had 40 points or more ONCE the entire time he was here, i believe that Nyquist is going to be somewhere between Filpulla and Datsyuk, a 60 point a year quality player. Time for a little out with the old to happen and give the kid a well deserve shot.

[Haliax]

We're at a point that is well past not rushing players to the NHL. The team isn't giving young players the chance that they earned. Tatar was one of the better players on the Wings last season when he was sent down. He wasn't putting up big numbers, but he looked consistently dangerous in the offensive zone. The teams love for veterans is hurting it's future. I think that Brendan Smith is a good example of this. Instead of playing with and learning from Lidstrom, he was burried in the AHL when he had shown that he was probably ready for NHL time. It looks like the team is going to give Dekeyser a good shot, but only because they weren't able to find a decent shut down defenseman for the right price. And probably because he demanded the ice time if the team wanted him to sign. If Dekeyser was a Wings draftee, I wouldn't be surprised to see him still in the AHL if the team had the option.

 

The team is glacial when it comes to developing young talent. They haven't given a young player a real shot since Jiri Fischer, who cracked the team at the age of 19.  And that was Bowman. What young player has Babcock given a legit chance? I can't think of any.

[WingNut722]

@Haliax

 

I'd have to agree with @yave1964 on this one, but you raise a good point.  I think this season is a special case.  Filppula was let go so he was replaced by Steven Weiss.  Good.  Can't argue with that.  But the wrinkle had to be with Alfie.  Had he decided to finish out his career with Ottawa, I think we would see Nyquist (at least) in a full NHL uniform and looking for apartments in Birmingham with the other young'uns.  The mystery has all last year has been Darren Helm and Mikael Samulsson.  Both guys didn't play much at all, so it's hard to tell whether they fit in or not, and if so, where.  These are a lot of questions Holland had to field, and until he had his answers, he was going to hold all his cards.  

 

While I think it was a great move and this will be a fun season, Daniel Alfredsson has everything to do with the extra lag time for the AHL call-ups.  

[Haliax]

I'm fine with everything up until they decided they needed to bring Cleary back. Why was that necessary? Beyond that, they are currently saddled with 2 bad contracts in Tootoo and Samuelsson. I was against those contracts right from the start and we're seeing why. Tootoo was never going to be a regular on this team when it came down to winning, and we saw that when Babcock benched him for the entirety of the playoffs. Samuelsson was signed as a PP specialist, for the point, which was a failed experiment from 4 years ago, so why are we trying again?

 

And we're seeing Cleary on the 2nd PP unit. Why? When was the last time Cleary was effective on the power play? He kills momentum as soon as he touches the puck. It isn't as if we don't have better options. 

[SpikeDDS]

I'm fine with everything up until they decided they needed to bring Cleary back. Why was that necessary? Beyond that, they are currently saddled with 2 bad contracts in Tootoo and Samuelsson. I was against those contracts right from the start and we're seeing why. Tootoo was never going to be a regular on this team when it came down to winning, and we saw that when Babcock benched him for the entirety of the playoffs. Samuelsson was signed as a PP specialist, for the point, which was a failed experiment from 4 years ago, so why are we trying again?

 

And we're seeing Cleary on the 2nd PP unit. Why? When was the last time Cleary was effective on the power play? He kills momentum as soon as he touches the puck. It isn't as if we don't have better options. 

 

Um, actually I think we have to say that our PP the last 2 seasons has been a disappointment. It's not just Cleary. He's merely one cog in the winged wheel. I do seem to recall last year that someone posted some pretty sick statistics in support of Cleary on the top 2 lines as far as puck possession and retrieval times went. And that was well before his playoff "resurrection." But his playoff numbers weren't a fluke as far as how he played in the playoffs. He was all over the place. If he was like that all the time, we wouldn't be haveing an argument about him, and he wouldn't be playing for $1.75M on a 1-year deal. And we probably wouldn't have Weiss and Alfredsson--probably one of the 2, but not both.

 

I actually kinda like the Cleary deal, because it gives us 1 year to see if he keeps playing the way he did in the SCPs last year or if he falls back into the regular Cleary pattern. I do acknowledge and respect the argument about bringing the kinds up and giving them ice time, though. But I'm with Ken on this one. For $1.75M, that's too good a deal to pass up, especially with only the single year of commitment. I have a feeling the kids will still get their chance with injuries that are still likely to occur. I also think, as I have said before, that Gus' play in GR will likely force a decision to bring him back up. This is Tatar's chance to show how much he belongs, and in what capacity.

 

I think the PP problem goes WAY beyond Cleary, and to try to pin that on him is going a step or two too far.

[yave1964]

@SpikeDDS

Agreed. I am glad to have Cleary back at the 'prove it' contract that he was willing to sign. And the Sammy/Tootoo deals were wretched then and now.

I blame the power play on our point men, skilled forwards are not the issue and are certainly not a problem this year. Kronwall is my favorite Wing, but he is not the pure point man that we need back there. Smith needs to take a step forward this year and hopefully Dekeyser will as well. I love the progress Kindl made, same with Ericsson but neither of them had any damn business ever being on the ice during a power play period.

This may sound silly because the player is denigrated regularly and I am not his biggest fan but Quincey did a solid job for the Avalanche a few years ago as a second team power play quarterback, I think he has been misused a bit this time around with the Wings, Kronwall and Dekeyser on the first team unit, Smith and Quincey on the second team would likely be our best bet. It keeps Kindl and Ericsson fresh for penalty kills where both excel. Just my opinion.

[Haliax]

Um, actually I think we have to say that our PP the last 2 seasons has been a disappointment. It's not just Cleary. He's merely one cog in the winged wheel. I do seem to recall last year that someone posted some pretty sick statistics in support of Cleary on the top 2 lines as far as puck possession and retrieval times went. And that was well before his playoff "resurrection." But his playoff numbers weren't a fluke as far as how he played in the playoffs. He was all over the place. If he was like that all the time, we wouldn't be haveing an argument about him, and he wouldn't be playing for $1.75M on a 1-year deal. And we probably wouldn't have Weiss and Alfredsson--probably one of the 2, but not both.

 

I actually kinda like the Cleary deal, because it gives us 1 year to see if he keeps playing the way he did in the SCPs last year or if he falls back into the regular Cleary pattern. I do acknowledge and respect the argument about bringing the kinds up and giving them ice time, though. But I'm with Ken on this one. For $1.75M, that's too good a deal to pass up, especially with only the single year of commitment. I have a feeling the kids will still get their chance with injuries that are still likely to occur. I also think, as I have said before, that Gus' play in GR will likely force a decision to bring him back up. This is Tatar's chance to show how much he belongs, and in what capacity.

 

I think the PP problem goes WAY beyond Cleary, and to try to pin that on him is going a step or two too far.

I didn't try to pin the PP problems solely on Cleary. That's just your own extrapolation. If you can find numbers in support of Cleary in terms of puck possession, I'm open to retracting that aspect of my criticism of his play. In my mind, he's been an inconsistent cog, and it is past time to try and see what our young players can do, which is really the larger part of my criticism. If we end up losing Eaves or Miller or Tootoo and keep Cleary, I don't have as big of a problem with it. Because Cleary is better than them. But I don't want to see the growth of Tatar or Nyquist stunted by the teams loyalty to veteran players. 

 

In the end, the problem isn't really Cleary, it's that we already had 16 NHL forwards under contract, so signing another was pointless. And I think Cleary is misused. There are situations where a player like him is useful, but I don't think it is in the top 6 with PP time.

[WingNut722]

@Haliax   If I may interject...

 

Though it may be unclear to us, there obviously is some kind of inherent value in keeping Dan Cleary.  Ken Holland signed him while already having 16 forwards and already being over the salary cap.  So there must be something, but it may not be just in the numbers.  

 

The press has always heralded his leadership and locker room skills as reason to keep him, and obviously we can't prove/disprove that.  On the ice though, I can say that Cleary is a workhorse.  He may not have super numbers, but he's always in there digging.  He's excellent in board battles, and along with Johan Franzen, brings another net-front presence during the power play.

 

He may have taken a paycut to stick around this year, but Holland obviously did him a favor, so it's time for Dan Cleary to really shine.  Look for that this season. 

[Haliax]

I've been waiting for Cleary to return back to old form for 3(?) seasons now. He hasn't been the same since Samuelsson broke his jaw with that ridiculous high and wide shot. He's still a useful player, but he isn't the fast pace offensive threat that he used to be. Which is how Babcock seems intent on using him.

[WingNut722]

I'll guess we'll have to see.....