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The Split "Homer's Use of Draft Picks" Thread


flyercanuck

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I just can't buy in, hockeyfuture report notwithstanding, Marshall was always considered a risk because of his skating, I read it a hundred times before, during and after the draft. How you pass up the *obvious* skills of Subban for a slug who cannot skate is beyond me. Our scouts messed up large here. We will have to agree to disagree...lol.

Pavel Brendl.

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 When he wins his next Norris, I'm sure he will take note of this  :ph34r:

 

 

the norris that subban won was the best example of how re-appropriated that trophy has become.  it is won by the defenseman who best emulates a winger.  not impressed.

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@doom88 Ok...pass on all great skaters and shooters cause they might turn out to be Brendls. Draft all guys with no skating and tougness like Marshall and we will see which team wins a cup first.....K?

Come on, seriously. People weren't sure Subban would even make the NHL with his pre draft issues. I pointed out Brendl as an example that all the talent in the world doesn't matter if a player doesn't want it. Subban changed significantly, as many here noted.

If you've been keeping score, I want(ed) to keep Carle, Coburn, Streit most days, and Meszaros. My scapegoats have been Marshall, Grossmann, Gill, Krajicek, Kubina, and occasionally Timonen. I believe skating matters, but you have to take everything into account. You draft a team of europussy figure skaters and end up with the Sabres or Habs. Neither of which won a Cup like that. Boston wins by maximizing as many traits as they can.

In summary, I'd gladly take a Mike Richards over a Daniel Briere. Briere was a better shooter and skater, but Richards was a better hockey player.

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  and I'd take Gilbert Perreault over Mike Richards. Speed and skill usually work out, especially when talking about taking a flyer in the second round. In much rather gamble with one of the very best skaters in the world over a guy who has 0 offensive upside.

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@doom88  Ok...pass on all great skaters and shooters cause they might turn out to be Brendls. Draft all guys with no skating and tougness like Marshall and we will see which team wins a cup first.....K?

 

pass on great skaters and shooters who act and play like they are god's gift while they pick and choose the areas of the game they feel like participating in.

 

and seriously, we have ISS, NHL central scouting, and hockey's future all specifically providing positive comments on marshall's skating.  please give me at least one example of how he can't skate, one source noting that as a weak point to his game.

 

you are playing the hindsight thing HARD here.  HARD.  subban turned out to be a very good player in his way, and marshall failed to advance at all.  early june of 2007, though, marshall had just played a big part in winning a Q championship with a solid all around game, while subban was a flighty one dimensional player with a highly questionable attitude.

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  and I'd take Gilbert Perreault over Mike Richards. Speed and skill usually work out, especially when talking about taking a flyer in the second round. In much rather gamble with one of the very best skaters in the world over a guy who has 0 offensive upside.

 

in 06-07, marshall had the second highest point total among dmen on his championship winning team, with 32 points in 70 games.  hindsight, again.

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@aziz  Well, I must admit, I'm not finding a lot linking him to bad skating....I did find this scouting report that says "he's a good straight line skater, but has odd agility, making him appear like he is stuck in mud or sand for a few seconds.....

 

 http://nhldraftbuzz.blogspot.ca/2007_05_27_archive.html

 

 I'll find a few more, but you'll have to take my word for it, his skating was an issue going into the draft. It was basically common knowledge and discussed quite a bit.

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@jammer2

 

ok, that's something.  

 

i just can't find anything that says he was anything other than a strong 2nd round choice.  everything says rock solid positional defender, impressive work ethic, and even decent mobility.  the only knock i can find mentioned with any consistency is his offensive game wasn't up to speed with his defensive game.  not enough to say he had no offensive game, but a weak point.  was compared to volchenkov, but better with the puck.  the kid was invited to the chl top prospects game, was apparently a major force in the playoffs immediately prior to the draft.  had all the appearances of a smart 41st pick.

 

i can't find anything that screamed "miss!!!", at least not more so than any other player still around after the top 20. subban, on the other hand, had a ton that screamed miss.  incomplete skill set, questionable work ethic, questionable attitude.  things worked out the complete opposite, but that's the nature of picks outside of the top handful.  roll the dice.

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  Well, I must admit, there is nothing I read that makes him look brutal, or as you say, screams miss. Perhaps I just have a different philosophy when it comes to drafting d-men, I have a tendency to lean towards the home run. There was a better chance Subban becomes a star, based on skill set. I'm sure the fact I actually saw him play live and how much he impressed me back then played a big role in my choice of one over the other. We have had a ton of d-men with Marshalls calling cards....when is the last time a Flyer d-man lifted you out of your seat as you screamed wildly over an amazing play?  You'd have to back to Mark Howe....still waiting on that star offensive wizard btw....lol.

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I have a tendency to lean towards the home run. There was a better chance Subban becomes a star, based on skill set.

 

i get that.  subban was either going to be a big deal, or no deal at all.  i don't really share that tendancy, i have a big dislike for one-way offensive defensemen, but i can see where you are coming from on that.

 


We have had a ton of d-men with Marshalls calling cards...

 

true, but had he gone the way it was hoped, a super steady shutdown 2nd pair dman with size...there is a lot of value there.  and, to put odds to it, if there was a 40% chance marshall became that, and a 15% chance flighty disinterested subban found an all around game, which is the smart choice?

 


when is the last time a Flyer d-man lifted you out of your seat as you screamed wildly over an amazing play? 

 

hatcher, knocking out two of crosby's teeth in his first ever NHL game.  ;)

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i get that.  subban was either going to be a big deal, or no deal at all.  i don't really share that tendancy, i have a big dislike for one-way offensive defensemen, but i can see where you are coming from on that.

 

 

 

true, but had he gone the way it was hoped, a super steady shutdown 2nd pair dman with size...there is a lot of value there.  and, to put odds to it, if there was a 40% chance marshall became that, and a 15% chance flighty disinterested subban found an all around game, which is the smart choice?

 

 

 

hatcher, knocking out two of crosby's teeth in his first ever NHL game.   ;)

 

Honestly, the first think that popped into my head when that happened....great, give the best player in the world more motivation everytime he plays us.

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I get what you are saying, but don't know how you are arriving at your percentage points/ ratio of success.

 

arbitrary.  just throwing numbers at it, based on what i can find of the scouting on the two players right before the draft.

 


I'd venture to guess if you saw what I saw in Windsor Arena, those percentage points would not be the same.

 

well, i imagine that on the subban front, what you saw then was at least similar to what we see now.  and as i've said, i really wouldn't want pk subban on my favorite team.  yeah, he'll bring you to your feet with an amazing play.  he'll also make you scream at the stupid childish penalities, pull your hair out at the defensive "who, me?"'s, and will make you wear out 4 select letters on your keyboard as he does things like hold out on a fair contract as a 22 yearold.  

 

he's a #1 dman who doesn't kill penalities.  want nothing to do with that.

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@jammer2

 

lol  :)

 

i'm just not a fan of that approach to defense.  if you want a guy who's skillset is entirely based on offense, may as well convert a winger to the role.  your team is essentially skating with 4 forwards, anyway.  i was never a paul coffey fan, mike green, brian mccabe, kaberle, souray.  there is such a thing as a guy who plays both sides, and that is the home run that you spoke of.  pronger, lidstrom, chara.  if my team has to have a dman who is only effective on one side of the puck, i want it to be the defensive side.  there are three forwards on the ice that can take care of the other half.

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@aziz  I'm taking it you don't watch many Montreal games, cause Subban is no Green. He welcomes and initiates contact. In fact, he's more physical than any Flyer defensemen not named Grossmann. His game today is MUCH different than it was just 2 years ago. He is evolving, and in a good way.

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Subban is no Green. He welcomes and initiates contact. In fact, he's more physical than any Flyer defensemen not named Grossmann.

 

sure, a la sheldon souray, but substitute extra puck handling for the huge cannon.  it isn't about hitting, it's about defensive responsibility.  i confess, i've probably only watched 10 or so montreal games this season, so maybe he has changed his game entirely.  i'm still seeing 0:42 SH TOI/G, and i'm still hearing that he doesn't see icetime if the habs are protecting a lead late.

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His game today is MUCH different than it was just 2 years ago.

 

I admit i have seen a change in his game.

 

Here is a article on you guys discussion take what you will from it.

 

The reigning Norris Trophy winner is at it again, literally blowing the competition to smithereens. He's producing the best possession numbers, he's effecting his team more positively on the scoreboard than any other defenseman, he's producing points at the highest rate (tied with Keith), and he's doing it in the third toughest minutes in this group of excellent defensemen (and Staal).

 

http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2014-sochi-olympics/2013/12/3/5172530/how-does-p-k-subban-compare-to-other-team-canada-defense-hopefuls

 

Player                       TOI/G  Goals  Assists Points  Shots   Rel Goals for %  Rel Corsi %  OZS %

P.K. Subban              24:49    4          20         24         88         +14.0                 +9.4               48.1

Duncan Keith             24:07    1         23          24         77          +4.2                 +2.6               57.0

Drew Doughty            25:41    5          9          14          72           -1.4                 +1.1               50.9

Shea Weber               26:09    7          5          12          55           -3.5                     0                43.0

Alex Pietrangelo         25:35    4        14          18          53           +6.3                +2.6                52.2

Jay Bouwmeester       24:18    1        18          19          54           +8.9                +1.2                53.4

Marc-Edouard Vlasic  21:01    3        9            12         39            -0.3                 +4.4                45.3

Dan Hamhuis              22:31   4         3             7          53           +6.1                 +1.7                49.1

Dan Boyle                   20:59   5         5            10         51          -10.5                 +4.1               52.0

Kris Letang                 24:29    5         5            10         55           -16.9                +3.5              51.0

Brent Seabrook          21:56    1        15           16         55            +6.3                 +3.0               56.9

Marc Staal                  20:06    2         1             3         30             -3.6                +4.5                49.1

 

EDIT: i tried to make it more understandable....doesn't translate from page to page well.

 

 

An explanation on some of the Corsi stats here

 

http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/7/23/4547818/fancy-stat-summer-school-relative-statistics

Edited by OccamsRazor
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@OccamsRazor  Assuming OZS is offensive zone starts, why would a one dimensional offensive defensemen start only 48.1 % of the time in the offensive zone?  If he is starting his shifts from the defensive zone most of the time, is it fair to conclude that his coach trusts him in the defensive zone?

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@jammer2

 

he trusts subban to help his team gain possession and maintain it.  it works exactly like putting a strong possession winger back there and rolling with 4 forwards.  you will tend to control the puck more, because you have more guys out there who are specifically good at controlling the puck.  the flyers would see the same benefit by putting a unit of giroux, voracek, simmonds, read, coburn out there at even strength.  the same benefit and the same drawback.  personally, i'm not a fan of the idea.

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@OccamsRazor  Assuming OZS is offensive zone starts, why would a one dimensional offensive defensemen start only 48.1 % of the time in the offensive zone?  If he is starting his shifts from the defensive zone most of the time, is it fair to conclude that his coach trusts him in the defensive zone?

I'd say yeah.

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@OccamsRazor  Assuming OZS is offensive zone starts, why would a one dimensional offensive defensemen start only 48.1 % of the time in the offensive zone?  If he is starting his shifts from the defensive zone most of the time, is it fair to conclude that his coach trusts him in the defensive zone?

But the Rel Corsi is the key. It's all about puck possesion, thar number reflects the goals scored per 60 minutes he is one the ice...which you see he has the best at +

9.4. OUTSTANDING!!!

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thar number reflects the goals scored per 60 minutes he is one the ice...which you see he has the best at +

 

as i understand it, corsi is the number of *shots* directed at the opposing net versus your own.  so, yes, the team with 4 forwards on the ice tends to take more shots than they allow when that 4th forward is out there.

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as i understand it, corsi is the number of *shots* directed at the opposing net versus your own.

 

Yes and yes...i think.

 

Like i stated in another post i'm still learning this too and trying to apply it.....some of it makes sense to me and some not so much.

 

But it all is predicated on puck possession cause you can't record a shot if you don't have the puck some i'm not posting this to tell everyone what it means hell i may need you (or anyone here) to explain what it means. 

 

Like for example Subban Rel Corsi % is +9.4 and for comparisons GrossmanN's was -13.4

 

A HUGE BAD swing for GrossmanN that is.

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