The Maple Leaf Polarity Phenomenon

[Commander Clueless]

Here we observe the Maple Leaf in its natural habitat. Over the course of its natural season, the Maple Leaf will go through several random, unpredictable highs and lows. The Leaf actually appears to shift its overall effort and caring level back and forth and back again.

 

Likewise, observers of the Leaf will rapidly change their attitudes and approach to life in general as a direct result of the Leaf's erratic behaviour. This mind-boggling tendency of inconsistency with no discernable pattern is known by scientists as the Maple Leaf Polarity Phenomenon, and is nature's purest form of utter chaos.

 

 

 

Let's be honest, despite currently sitting in playoff position, the Leafs are about as likely to make the playoffs as David Clarkson is of staying on his skates for more than ten seconds into a shift, Dion Phaneuf is to respond to an interview question in a timely fashion, or Luke Schenn is of actually catching a streaking opponent forward. Their possession stats are trash, and they can make teams pay for mistakes but can't shore up their own (except when Bernier bails them out, apparently).

 

 

As a Leaf fan, the question is (and always has been), what in the <expletive><expletive> can the Leafs possibly do to fix this <expletive> team? Strangely enough, the answer is always obvious....just not always the same.

 

Logic Path #1 (Known as Post-Win Logic)

 

- We're not actually that bad, we just need to shore up the defense. And fire the coach.

 

Logic Path #2 (Known as Post-Loss Logic)

 

- What a terrible team. We need to blow it up and rebuild around some of our younger guys. And fire the coach.

 

 

So, following this (il)logic, which option is best?

 

Path #1 - Make a trade to shore up their weakest part of their game (defense)

 

or

 

Path #2 - Trade Kessel, Phaneuf, and probably Bozak, Lupul, and Franson for prospects/picks/young players and build around guys like Kadri, JVR, Nylander, Rielly, etc.?

 

 

What do you guys think? Come one, come all, and predict the unpredictable!

 

Since we've just lost a couple, my innate, obligatory Leaf Fan logic tree says blow it up. 

 

 

Brendan Shanahan is the Shanaman with the Shanaplan. Or so we are lead to believe. I doubt we see any serious action until the trade deadline at the earliest barring a collapse within a collapse, but it's fun to speculate amidst the chaos.

[yave1964]

@Commander Clueless

 

Good post. When the Leafs won like 9 of ten a week or two ago I meant to post about the schizophrenic nature of this team. It is amazing.

 

They lost the fans with back to back horrible games and refusing to actualy acknowledge the fans by raising their sticks when they next won at home. They looked dead in the water.

 

 Then they got hot, as in real hot, as in right back in the middle of things, looking like a playoff team at the least and a contender possibly to boot.

 

  But the Leafs are like my Ohio weather, if you don't like it, give it five minutes and it will change.

 

  That said, there is truly a lot to like about this years team. Komarov will be back soon, he has been an absolute beast on the third line hitting everything that moves. Clarkson, while certainly not worthy of his monstrous deal from a year ago is n pace for 20-25 goals and gives it all every shift. Bernier/Reimer have been solid at the least and at times bordering on outstanding. Robidas is showing his age but is smart and is like plus 12. Bozak is a faceoff God. And Kessel has been his usual self, both good and bad but leading the team in scoring. Phaneuf is silenting the critics with an outstanding year.

 

Last year the Leafs were forced to play a succession of non talented rookies almost every night who simply did not belong in the NHL and likely most of them never will be back barring a long series of injuries. Bringing in veteran forwards like Santorelli, Komarov, Winnick, Panick and Holland establishing himself hasmade the bottom six as good as nearly anyone in the game. THAT  to me will allow veterans such as Kessel and JVR from entering March without their tongues dragging the floor. This is not last years Leafs team, I am not saying the Leafs are destined to win it all, the division is one of the most balanced in the game, Tampa, Montreal, Toronto, Detroit, Florida and Boston all could make a run with the Metro being four deep, two teams will be on the outside looking in come April. Detroit has had the easiest schedule in Hockey to start the year and begin an absolutely brutal stretch over the next two months that could break a young team. Florida could remember they are Florida. Boston is one or two injuries away from being a non factor. So Toronto is in as good of a position as one could ask for. I personally see them with about a 85-90 percent shot at a playoff team, and once in, like the saying goes, anything can happen.

  Lupul will bounce back,

[jammer2]

  Is this anything like seasonal weather disorder?  Ha ha....I've seen my Leaf buddies go from suicidal, to planning the parade and back down to deep depression. You would think after years and years of this, they would be on a more even keel. I suppose it's all due to lack of playoff games. The Boston series wet their whistle and now they thirst for more Stanley Cup action. The current state of the defense may hold them back on that dream. The question is....how do they revamp the defense without touching the young core?  A question my Flyers could ask also.

[WordsOfWisdom]

The question I have is: When will the Leafs ice a team that is in the top 10 in the league defensively?

 

(A feat they probably haven't accomplished since the league expanded up from six teams.)

 

 

I mentioned the Kessel for Suter trade earlier, but that's exactly the type of deal that the Leafs need to make if they're going to move forward. Being #1 in GPG and #30 in GAA does not make for a Stanley Cup winning team.

 

When I look at the Leafs defence, there are four guys on that blueline that the Leafs could dump and I wouldn't miss any of them.

[yave1964]

The question I have is: When will the Leafs ice a team that is in the top 10 in the league defensively?

 

(A feat they probably haven't accomplished since the league expanded up from six teams.)

 

 

I mentioned the Kessel for Suter trade earlier, but that's exactly the type of deal that the Leafs need to make if they're going to move forward. Being #1 in GPG and #30 in GAA does not make for a Stanley Cup winning team.

 

When I look at the Leafs defence, there are four guys on that blueline that the Leafs could dump and I wouldn't miss any of them.

  What happened to Gardiner? He has looked downright BAD in the seven or eight games I have watched the Leafs this year, maybe not bad every game, but certainly not good.

 Phaneuf has been solid, Reilly shows flashes, Robidas has been unspectacular but steady, Fransen has been playing like he did th first half last year before he fell off badly after the All Star break. To me, Gardiner is the number one player who sucks on the blue line, with Polak right behind. Just the opinion of a Wings fan, the first four I would keep.

[WordsOfWisdom]

  What happened to Gardiner? He has looked downright BAD in the seven or eight games I have watched the Leafs this year, maybe not bad every game, but certainly not good.

 Phaneuf has been solid, Reilly shows flashes, Robidas has been unspectacular but steady, Fransen has been playing like he did th first half last year before he fell off badly after the All Star break. To me, Gardiner is the number one player who sucks on the blue line, with Polak right behind. Just the opinion of a Wings fan, the first four I would keep.

 

Well, I've been tracking the team with a "defensive errors" stat that I've constructed. (A stat intended to supplement and ultimately replace +/- as a stat to measure defensive ability.)

 

Using almost half a season's worth of game data now, The Leafs defencemen (from best to worst) are:

1. Stephane Robidas (1 defensive error every 197 minutes)
2. Korbinian Holzer (1 defensive error every 119 minutes)
3. Dion Phaneuf (1 defensive error every 87 minutes)
4. Roman Polak (1 defensive error every 81 minutes)
5. Morgan Rielly (1 defensive error every 72 minutes)
6. Jake Gardiner (1 defensive error every 62 minutes)
7. Cody Franson (1 defensive error every 57 minutes)

 

Comments:

 

Franson's last two games have put him at the bottom. Gardiner may yet dip below him because he seems clueless in his own zone.

 

Phaneuf plays the toughest minutes, so take from that what you will.

 

Robidas gets almost no fanfare and just plays rock solid "D" most of the time.

[yave1964]

Well, I've been tracking the team with a "defensive errors" stat that I've constructed. (A stat intended to supplement and ultimately replace +/- as a stat to measure defensive ability.)

 

Using almost half a season's worth of game data now, The Leafs defencemen (from best to worst) are:

1. Stephane Robidas (1 defensive error every 197 minutes)
2. Korbinian Holzer (1 defensive error every 119 minutes)
3. Dion Phaneuf (1 defensive error every 87 minutes)
4. Roman Polak (1 defensive error every 81 minutes)
5. Morgan Rielly (1 defensive error every 72 minutes)
6. Jake Gardiner (1 defensive error every 62 minutes)
7. Cody Franson (1 defensive error every 57 minutes)

 

Comments:

 

Franson's last two games have put him at the bottom. Gardiner may yet dip below him because he seems clueless in his own zone.

 

Phaneuf plays the toughest minutes, so take from that what you will.

 

Robidas gets almost no fanfare and just plays rock solid "D" most of the time.

Franson at least brings offense. Nobody i every going to confuse him with od Langway or Nick Lidstrom on the back end, but I would take him on my team any day, granted whenever he has the puck in his own zone my heart would skip the occasional beat.

 

 Robidas hardly ever makes a mistake in his own zone and for a guy who has broken a leg twice now seems to have slowed a bit but not terribly, but makes up for an lack of speed with great positioning and vision.

 

 Gardiner though, from what I have seen, and granted my sample is much smaller than yours seems to have the same general problem as Kindl on my Wings, he seems to be allergic to rubber. He don't want to play it, shoot it or pass it, as soon as he gets it he fires blindly to get it away from him and if it goes to the other team, well, at least he dos not have it. That is Kindl, you can tell me if that is Gardiner as well better than I but every time I watch the Leafs that is what I see.

[Commander Clueless]

@Commander Clueless

 

Good post. When the Leafs won like 9 of ten a week or two ago I meant to post about the schizophrenic nature of this team. It is amazing.

 

They lost the fans with back to back horrible games and refusing to actualy acknowledge the fans by raising their sticks when they next won at home. They looked dead in the water.

 

 Then they got hot, as in real hot, as in right back in the middle of things, looking like a playoff team at the least and a contender possibly to boot.

 

  But the Leafs are like my Ohio weather, if you don't like it, give it five minutes and it will change.

 

  That said, there is truly a lot to like about this years team. Komarov will be back soon, he has been an absolute beast on the third line hitting everything that moves. Clarkson, while certainly not worthy of his monstrous deal from a year ago is n pace for 20-25 goals and gives it all every shift. Bernier/Reimer have been solid at the least and at times bordering on outstanding. Robidas is showing his age but is smart and is like plus 12. Bozak is a faceoff God. And Kessel has been his usual self, both good and bad but leading the team in scoring. Phaneuf is silenting the critics with an outstanding year.

 

Last year the Leafs were forced to play a succession of non talented rookies almost every night who simply did not belong in the NHL and likely most of them never will be back barring a long series of injuries. Bringing in veteran forwards like Santorelli, Komarov, Winnick, Panick and Holland establishing himself hasmade the bottom six as good as nearly anyone in the game. THAT  to me will allow veterans such as Kessel and JVR from entering March without their tongues dragging the floor. This is not last years Leafs team, I am not saying the Leafs are destined to win it all, the division is one of the most balanced in the game, Tampa, Montreal, Toronto, Detroit, Florida and Boston all could make a run with the Metro being four deep, two teams will be on the outside looking in come April. Detroit has had the easiest schedule in Hockey to start the year and begin an absolutely brutal stretch over the next two months that could break a young team. Florida could remember they are Florida. Boston is one or two injuries away from being a non factor. So Toronto is in as good of a position as one could ask for. I personally see them with about a 85-90 percent shot at a playoff team, and once in, like the saying goes, anything can happen.

  Lupul will bounce back,

 

The Leafs added significant depth from the bargain bin this past offseason, and it was good depth. It was also much needed.

 

The issue is that they cannot break out of this funk of playing pond-style rush hockey. Earlier in the year it looked like they were making strides in defensive play, but after the win streak got underway, they reverted to last year's formula of getting massively outshot and letting Bernier (and sometimes Reimer) bail them out.

 

If they continue playing in this manner, I can't see good things in the future. I don't know what's up - is it a coaching issue that this keeps unraveling, or is it a player issue? It's so hard to tell. Everybody likes blaming Carlyle, but the coach is always the first target.

 

 

This isn't a team without promise, but it might be a team in need of a major shakeup. As @WordsOfWisdom mentioned, that shakeup might be a Phil Kessel trade or something of that magnitude. Either way, they need to shift the focus (again) from cherry picking to possession play.

 

A few guys (like Nazem Kadri in particular) have made the effort.

 

 

Jake Gardiner - tough to say what's happening to him. He had an excellent season last season, but this season he's regressed in a major way so far. There's still hope of course, but he now also carries a big contract and more pressure to go with it. His puck moving and offensive creativity is still there, but he's avoiding contact like the plague and his defensive awareness has just crumbled (not that it was ever spectacular).

 

 

If Shanahan believes that this team has something and just needs a push, the biggest need the Leafs have IMO is another solid #2 or #3 defenseman. They need one of those bad (maybe a guy like Sekera from Carolina, if available? Yandle has been rumoured as well). Unfortunately, they don't have a ton of cap space, so a sacrifice or two will need to be made.

[WordsOfWisdom]

Franson at least brings offense. Nobody i every going to confuse him with od Langway or Nick Lidstrom on the back end, but I would take him on my team any day, granted whenever he has the puck in his own zone my heart would skip the occasional beat.

 

 Robidas hardly ever makes a mistake in his own zone and for a guy who has broken a leg twice now seems to have slowed a bit but not terribly, but makes up for an lack of speed with great positioning and vision.

 

 Gardiner though, from what I have seen, and granted my sample is much smaller than yours seems to have the same general problem as Kindl on my Wings, he seems to be allergic to rubber. He don't want to play it, shoot it or pass it, as soon as he gets it he fires blindly to get it away from him and if it goes to the other team, well, at least he dos not have it. That is Kindl, you can tell me if that is Gardiner as well better than I but every time I watch the Leafs that is what I see.

 

Re: Franson. That's why he stays in the lineup while Gardiner gets benched.

 

Re: Robidas. Quiet and effective seems to be the order of the day here. I wish the Leafs had two more guys on defence just like him, albeit a bit younger of course.

 

Re: Gardiner. Gardiner doesn't do enough offensively to offset his horrendous defence. He just looks lost at times. He has a tendency to wander out of position and lose his guy in the defensive zone. I would say he needs more time in the minors to work out some of the kinks in his game. The Leafs can't afford to keep trotting him out there for 20 minutes a night because they're getting destroyed in their own zone.

 

[Commander Clueless]

I guess the latest Leaf Nation thought is to perhaps trade Kessel for a nice return of young (albeit currently lesser), hard working assets to try to change the mentality of the team. Sort of Columbs/Rick Nash style.

 

Or the Ryan Suter idea above, but I doubt a trade like that will be available. Normally this stuff is good player for multiple maybes, rather than one for one.

 

 

Food for thought, anyway. I think the Leafs would miss Kessel's offense more than a lot of fans realize, though.

[WordsOfWisdom]

The issue is that they cannot break out of this funk of playing pond-style rush hockey. Earlier in the year it looked like they were making strides in defensive play, but after the win streak got underway, they reverted to last year's formula of getting massively outshot and letting Bernier (and sometimes Reimer) bail them out.

 

If they continue playing in this manner, I can't see good things in the future. I don't know what's up - is it a coaching issue that this keeps unraveling, or is it a player issue? It's so hard to tell. Everybody likes blaming Carlyle, but the coach is always the first target.

 

This isn't a team without promise, but it might be a team in need of a major shakeup. As @WordsOfWisdom mentioned, that shakeup might be a Phil Kessel trade or something of that magnitude. Either way, they need to shift the focus (again) from cherry picking to possession play.

 

I think it's on the players now. The Leafs have had two different coaches with this group, both of which have enjoyed success elsewhere. Some players just can't (or don't want to) play well defensively.

 

I try to remain optimistic, but a team can only sell "hope" for so long before having to deliver the goods. Barring a major trade that alters the mix of players on the team and addresses the team's #1 weakness (D), I see this Leafs team as being very similar to the team from 2013 that pushed Boston to seven games before bowing out in the first round. I think they're a little bit better than the 2014 team, but the trajectory they are currently on will put them up against Pittsburgh or Tampa Bay (or whoever finishes #1 and #2 in the east) in the first round of the playoffs, if they get in.

 

Given the parity in the league, there isn't much separating Toronto from say Detroit or Montreal. Even one noteworthy acquisition at the trade deadline (without losing anyone of value off the roster) can make a difference.