Post-Cup Observations

[nossagog]

On 6/21/2016 at 11:32 AM, JR Ewing said:

 

That's minimum $4M for a third-pairing defenseman that you have to shelter. There's things he can do (he's good once inside the offensive zone, and is a good skater), but there are some liabilities for that price tag. Bad pass out of the zone, is over-matched physically, shies away from physical contact, and has a habit of puck watching. You're not getting him for PP quarterback, because the production has never been there in that area of the game.

 

Well the only way that Shultz can stay is if someone(Fleury or Kunitz) goes, and I can't see anyone picking up Kunitz's last year at 36 years old.   That means Fleury has to move.

 

If that doesn't happen, I see the Pens making an offer(sadly) to keep Lovejoy around if they can sign him for like $2.5m and have Pouliot as the fifth defenseman to start the year. That would leave them just enough to have Sundqvust and or Sprong start the year with the Pens.

 

I'd wave good bye to Beau, IR icon.  He's been injured so often, I'm almost hoping someone make a qualifying offer to him. 

[Polaris922]

On 6/21/2016 at 7:41 PM, JR Ewing said:

 

I dunno... Despite having the highest zone starts against the weakest comp, while Schultz was on the ice, the Pens gave up more GA/60. The possibility could exist that he was very good in his own end, yet found a way to be scored on more often than any other Pens blueliner, as well as be healthy scratched for most of the first half of the playoffs. I don't mean to be a dick. I hoped the Pens would win specifically to see Justin Schultz do well; he seems like a nice guy, and was never set up to succeed in Edmonton.

 

 

 

I don't think that passes in skates is a system thing, but that's cool. 

 

 

 

 

Though I cannot see where you got your GA/60 stat from, Schultz was also on the ice for the highest save% yet with one of the lowest puck possession percentages while on the ice than any other defenseman on the roster.  That means that though the other team controlled the puck slightly more while Schultz was on the ice their shots were stopped more often than when other D were out there.  So though he is not physical, he obviously played well positionally, pushing shooters to bad angles or outside/perimeter shots.  The only reason he was a healthy scratch to start the playoffs was the franchise's inexplicable love affair with Ben Lovejoy, who did have a good playoff run, particularly against Tampa.  

 

If you'd watched them throughout the series, Schultz did play very well.  Something must've changed in his breakout pass on the plane from Edmonton then   LOL  

 

Regardless of what his weaknesses may be, he was one of the brighter spots on defense in our playoff run, and I'd like to see them keep him here, though I know it is nearly impossible.  

[notfondajane]

On 6/24/2016 at 11:45 AM, nossagog said:

Well the only way that Shultz can stay is if someone(Fleury or Kunitz) goes, and I can't see anyone picking up Kunitz's last year at 36 years old.   That means Fleury has to move.

 

If that doesn't happen, I see the Pens making an offer(sadly) to keep Lovejoy around if they can sign him for like $2.5m and have Pouliot as the fifth defenseman to start the year. That would leave them just enough to have Sundqvust and or Sprong start the year with the Pens.

 

I'd wave good bye to Beau, IR icon.  He's been injured so often, I'm almost hoping someone make a qualifying offer to him. 

You had your wish granted Beau to the Devil's for surprisingly a third round pick in this years' draft!

[JR Ewing]

On 2016-06-24 at 10:30 PM, Polaris922 said:

 

 

Though I cannot see where you got your GA/60 stat from, Schultz was also on the ice for the highest save% yet with one of the lowest puck possession percentages while on the ice than any other defenseman on the roster.  That means that though the other team controlled the puck slightly more while Schultz was on the ice their shots were stopped more often than when other D were out there.  So though he is not physical, he obviously played well positionally, pushing shooters to bad angles or outside/perimeter shots.

 

 

 

Numbers courtesy of behindthenet.ca

 

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=25&s=33&f1=2015_p&f2=5v5&f4=D&f5=PIT&f7=10-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67+17+18+19+20+21+22+23+24+25+26+27+28#

 

Actually, SV% with Schultz on the ice during the playoffs was the lowest among Pittsburgh blueliners. But, it doesn't really matter anyway, because a defenseman's SV% is like a pitcher's batted balls in play: they don't control it:

 

https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07/defensemen-still-have-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/

 

 

 

On 2016-06-24 at 10:30 PM, Polaris922 said:

 

 The only reason he was a healthy scratch to start the playoffs was the franchise's inexplicable love affair with Ben Lovejoy, who did have a good playoff run, particularly against Tampa.  

 

If you'd watched them throughout the series, Schultz did play very well.  Something must've changed in his breakout pass on the plane from Edmonton then   LOL  

 

Regardless of what his weaknesses may be, he was one of the brighter spots on defense in our playoff run, and I'd like to see them keep him here, though I know it is nearly impossible.  

 

Here we have a chart representing zone exits and carry-in numbers for the playoffs:

 

Upper-right quadrant = good, lower-left = bad.

 

In a world by himself is Ghost, who exits the zone via puck carry or successful pass almost 65% of the time. At the bottom, are the Roman Polak and Radko Gudas-type players who do it successfully about 25% of the time (though Gudas was good at denying entry). Justin Schultz, we see, was below average at zone exits, at 43.9% (and among the very worst at denying zone entries). This isn't what you want to see from a puck moving defenseman, and isn't different from his time as an Oiler:

 

http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/06/14642/

http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/06/justin_schultz_phenomenon_2/

 

What I'm most interested in would be the disconnect: if Schultz is good at moving the puck, why is he so far below the numbers of the best puck movers? Also: if he's good defensively, why is it so easy to gain controlled entry against him?

 

[Polaris922]

8 hours ago, JR Ewing said:

 

Numbers courtesy of behindthenet.ca

 

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=25&s=33&f1=2015_p&f2=5v5&f4=D&f5=PIT&f7=10-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67+17+18+19+20+21+22+23+24+25+26+27+28#

 

Actually, SV% with Schultz on the ice during the playoffs was the lowest among Pittsburgh blueliners. But, it doesn't really matter anyway, because a defenseman's SV% is like a pitcher's batted balls in play: they don't control it:

 

https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07/defensemen-still-have-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/

 

 

 

 

Here we have a chart representing zone exits and carry-in numbers for the playoffs:

 

Upper-right quadrant = good, lower-left = bad.

 

In a world by himself is Ghost, who exits the zone via puck carry or successful pass almost 65% of the time. At the bottom, are the Roman Polak and Radko Gudas-type players who do it successfully about 25% of the time (though Gudas was good at denying entry). Justin Schultz, we see, was below average at zone exits, at 43.9% (and among the very worst at denying zone entries). This isn't what you want to see from a puck moving defenseman, and isn't different from his time as an Oiler:

 

http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/06/14642/

http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/06/justin_schultz_phenomenon_2/

 

What I'm most interested in would be the disconnect: if Schultz is good at moving the puck, why is he so far below the numbers of the best puck movers? Also: if he's good defensively, why is it so easy to gain controlled entry against him?

 

 

Completely different stat cumulative from the site I referenced for my post.   Wonder why the variations?

 

http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/PIT/2016.html

[Polaris922]

@JR Ewing

 

i think your stats include his time with the Oilers is why.  It shows games played as 61 and he only came to the Pens the last couple days of February.  

[JR Ewing]

6 hours ago, Polaris922 said:

@JR Ewing

 

i think your stats include his time with the Oilers is why.  It shows games played as 61 and he only came to the Pens the last couple days of February.  

 

You know what, that's my mistake. I selected "Playoffs", and for some reason it spit out regular season numbers. It doesn't matter since, as noted before, defensive players don't control SV%, but the mistake was indeed my own. I should have been more aware.

 

 

 

[Polaris922]

11 hours ago, JR Ewing said:

 

You know what, that's my mistake. I selected "Playoffs", and for some reason it spit out regular season numbers. It doesn't matter since, as noted before, defensive players don't control SV%, but the mistake was indeed my own. I should have been more aware.

 

 

 

 

All good bud.   It's all irrelevant anyway because the Pens don't have the cap space to keep him without him conceding quite a bit.