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My take on the Sens roster


ScottM

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This offseason has been eerily quiet and frustratingly so in Ottawa. The only free agency signing of note has been that of Chris Kelly. Obviously the most notable trade has been the Zibanejad for Brassard swap, with the Chiasson for Sieloff deal being the only other one that really caught my attention. The Kelly signing was a good depth signing, imo. The Zibanejad for Brassard trade was bad (no offense to Brassard, who is a good player), and the Chiasson trade really didn't make much sense. I would have preferred to let him go into free agency and free up the cap space than bring in another young AHL defenseman that may or may not work out. We have enough of them already.

 

I certainly hope we see more moves made (and hopefully smarter ones), but I thought I'd take a look at the current Sens roster and give my take. I'd be interested to hear any other thoughts on this as well. I'm using the roster on HockeyBuzz as the basis for this post, and the players are sorted by salary.

 

Forwards

Bobby Ryan: Would you believe Karlsson isn't the highest paid Senator? He's not. It's Ryan. I often feel that he's overpaid for his periodic power outages, but there's no doubt Ryan is a veteran leader that we need to keep around.

Derick Brassard: I don't like what we gave up to get him, but I like Brassard. If he repeats the season he had last year, he'll be a good guy to have around. I really hope he can improve his faceoff performance, however.

Clarke MacArthur: I like MacArthur, but it's time to part company. Injuries have been a problem as of late, and he's way too inconsistent. He doesn't really feel like a top six guy anymore. I feel that his contract money can be better used elsewhere.

Kyle Turris: He has his critics, and at times, I've been one of them. But, when he's on his game, he's on, and at $3.5 million for two more years, there's good bang for the buck.

Mark Stone: I won't lie: I was a little disappointed by Stone this past season. He was good, but he didn't take the step I hoped for. Still, he seems destined to be one of the game's best two-way forwards, and I'm very happy to have him. He's a keeper.

Zack Smith: Any Senators fan that wasn't thrilled with his 25-goal season needs to have their head examined. I don't expect to see a repeat, but he more than proved his worth. I feel that he more than proved his worth as a depth guy.

Chris Neil: I really, really hate to say this, but I think it's time to move on. He still makes contributions, but he just doesn't seem like the same guy he used to be. I think we'll see him retire soon.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau: We're paying this guy less than a million next season. Am I happy? Yes.

Chris Kelly: We're not going to get eye-popping numbers, but he's a good addition for depth and leadership. His injury last season concerns me a little, but if he rebounds at all, he'll contribute.

Curtis Lazar: Odds are, he'll always be bottom six, but he's reliable, and he doesn't scare me when he's on the ice. When you look for guys that can fill a few minutes to give the big boys a breath, this is the kind of guy you want.

Buddy Robinson: It's kind of hard to get excited about a guy that has only played three games in the NHL, but is nearly 25 years old. I really don't see a lot coming here. A career AHL'er is my guess.

Ryan Dzingel: This is a similar story to Robinson, though Dzingel did manage to play 30 games last season. I don't see him staying in the NHL consistently, but I think he can fill in for certain stretches.

Mike Blunden: When a guy has 13 points in 124 career games and is approaching his 30th birthday, I really think it's time to move on. I'd rather fill an AHL slot with a younger guy that has more upside, and I don't want to fill an NHL spot with a guy that's more of a 3rd line AHL'er.

Philip Varone: Varone falls somewher between Robinson and Dzingel. He's 25, and you might get some limited use, but not a lot. Still, maybe it's good to have a guy like this in a pinch.

Mike Hoffman: He's at the bottom of this list because his future status is uncertain. He says he wants to stay in Ottawa, and if the front office doesn't make that happen they're nuts. Yes, I'd like to see more consistency and defensive awareness, but I really think we're talking about a future 40-goal scorer. Make it happen Dorion!

 

Defensemen

Dion Phaneuf: The price tag is a little high, but he was a major upgrade from what we had been putting on the blue line. He didn't fit the number one role he had in Toronto since his peak days were in Calgary, but with a bit of the pressure off, I think he'll be fine.

Erik Karlsson: He's the best of the best and he's locked in for three more years at $6.5 million. Talk about a steal! He's basically the only guy on the team that you can say you know what you're going to get day in and day out. He was far and away the best player on the team last season.

Marc Methot: He's never going to give you a lot of defense, but he's reliable, and that's more than can be said for many Ottawa defensemen. He's the Sens' shutdown guy, and the perfect partner for Karlsson since it allows him to do what he does best.

Mark Borowiecki: Someone have mercy on my wretched soul! Borowiecki's play was downright painful for much of the season. He hits hard and he hits a lot, but that in itself isn't enough to make him an effective contributor.

Patrick Sieloff: Again, this addition doesn't make a lot of sense to me. We needed to add some defensemen, so the answer was adding yet another young, unproven guy that may or may not pan out? I don't get it.

Chris Wideman: He's definitely not the worst guy we put out there last season, but I don't expect too much here. He's great in the AHL, but just kinda okay in the NHL. I'd rather see our defensive corps built up so that he spends more time in the minors.

Mike Kostka: He had one point in 15 games, and a Corsi rating of barely over 44% last season. Ottawa has a lot of problems, but Kostka demonstrates the fact that minor league defensemen is our biggest.

Fredrik Claesson: He wasn't as dreadful in the games he played as many of his comrades in that he didn't shoot the team in the foot, but what did he really contribute? He more or less filled space. This is another guy that needs to be in the AHL.

Ben Harpur: The sample size is too small to really get a gauge of where he's going, but he's not ready for the big show yet.

Cody Ceci: Here's a guy that I think needs to continue to grow (look at the possession metrics from last season), but that I like overall. In some places, he'd still be in the minors for development, but he's earned his spot in Ottawa. Pairing him with Phaneuf seems to work well. I want to see how the pair does next season. He definitely needs to be resigned.

 

Goaltenders

Craig Anderson: He's had some outstanding seasons and some, um, less than outstanding seasons. Last season fit the latter category. There have been some worrying signs in the last three years, and I don't think Ottawa can relax here much longer.

Andrew Hammond: He caught lightning in a bottle two years again. We all knew there would be a decline. The question was how much. It was more than I thought, but he got few chances last season. I personally thought he was a bit better than Anderson and would've liked to see what he could have done with more opportunities.

Matt O'Connor: He has primarily been in the minors, but I'm including him here because I'm ready to see what he can do. I think it's time to give him a chance. If we make a move from Anderson soon, I might get my wish.

 

Here's the summary: It's the same old story in Ottawa. The top guys up front are just fine, but depth is a major issue. We have three or four decent to all-world defensemen, but way too many minor leaguers getting time. Goaltending is a question mark, and I really don't know what to expect from it next season. There is a lot of frustration bubbling among Senators fans. This is why. The story has been the same for a few years, and there has been little effort to improve it. Had I done this for the last 2 or 3 years, it would have looked very similar. One can only hope that the fan base finally lets the management know how fed up we are. Until it happens, I believe we'll continue to see the front office continue in the lazy pattern we've seen recently.

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   @ScottM

 

Good analysis, your team looks to have a very solid top six:

Hoffman, Ryan, Turris, Brassard, Stone and Pageau

 

A workable third line

Macarthur, Smith and Kelly

 

And God Help you in what you are going to have on the 4th line.

 

Lazar, ???? and ?????

Lazar IMHO is not a P/K guy and should be a middle six guy but needs to fit in somewhere. Neil is done, the rest are unknown.

 

Defensively,

Karlsson, Phaneuf and Methot are all very solid. It is the bottom three that are not ready for prime time players.

 

Goalie:

Anderson flip a coin, see which year he is going to have, Hammond is not as good as two years ago, not as bad as last year, they are the key to the razor edge that will be Ottawa's season.

 

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 Sieloff was a Windsor Spitfire, so I can help with him, seen him play lots. He's average height, average skater who hits like a truck. He's tough, but just in a middle weight kinda way, he could not last with the big boys of the nhl. He will stick up for teammates, heart and soul kinda guy, but the skating will probably not improve at this point, making him a candidate for last pairing or extra 7th d-man.

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On 7/26/2016 at 7:07 PM, jammer2 said:

making him a candidate for last pairing or extra 7th d-man.

 

You realize that was second pair for us for much of the season, right? Lol

 

All jokes aside, if that's the case, he's probably a decent upgrade from much of what we have.

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 Some thoughts on your other guys....

 

 I concur, Chris Neil is done, cooked...but this disturbing report may force him to try and compete for a spot, if the Sens were smart, they would quietly part ways with him, cause he just is not worth the 1.5 mill cap hit, other guys can do the same job for almost half the price....and a lot faster.

http://www.torontosun.com/news/ottawa/2010/06/07/14300791.html

As you can see, his creditors are about to get 20 cents on the dollar, making at least one more year a must for him...but do you really want to employ a guy so he can pay debts?

 

Geez, the bottom half of that list of d-men is downright ugly, with the exception of Cody Ceci. The Sens waited quite a while for him to be ready, but he has offensive upside and is a nice skater....he should be one of the guys in the top 4....the other spots...good luck with that...I suspect a youngster might sneak in there, if it's not rushing him.

 

 We already know that Lazar is a nhl player, but this year is make or break for him in regards to breaking into the top 6 eventually. He needs to appear on the scoresheet more often, and I believe he will. Both the effort and the skill are there, I expect 15 goals from him on the 3rd line...which would be a really nice total for him.

I believe Stone is one of the premier goalscorers in this league....and at least *some* of the scoring outages can be blamed on his center not getting him the puck at the exact moment he needs it...he's a trigger man, and he needs to get the puck just when he enters the weak seam of the defense...and many times, Turris did not have the vision to get it there.

25 goals from Zack Smith and a 2 mill cap hit...yeah, maybe one of the best bang for the bucks deals in the league...and he can repeat, given he is playing with solid linemates.

Let's not forget, the putrid Leafs of a few years ago deemed McArther expendable, not worthy of their top 6, and thought he would make to much to not be in the top 6....that speaks volumes to me, he needs to go....and Hoffman can easily replace his production...to many injuries for Clarke....he will be making a mill a year trying to prove himself again come mid Oct....I'm sure of it.

 

As those who play fantasy against me will attest, I've been on the Pageau train for a few years now, from the moment I saw him I was impressed with his cunning ability to be in the right place at the right time. Love his work ethic, and really think he is still just scratching the surface, but the promise must turn into pts this year.

 

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On 7/20/2016 at 0:49 AM, ScottM said:

Mike Hoffman: He's at the bottom of this list because his future status is uncertain. He says he wants to stay in Ottawa, and if the front office doesn't make that happen they're nuts. Yes, I'd like to see more consistency and defensive awareness, but I really think we're talking about a future 40-goal scorer. Make it happen Dorion!

 

 

Since entering the league in 2014, only nine players have scored more 5 v 5 goals than Hoffman. If you adjust for time on ice Hoffman looks even better as just six players have scored more 5 v 5 goals per 60 minutes played. Those six? Vladimir Tarasenko, Rick Nash, Tyler Seguin, Patrick Kane, Corey Perry and Alex Ovechkin.

Hoffman isn’t just a goal scorer/point producer, though. He has shown the ability to drive play and the Senators have been much better with him on the ice than without.

At 5 v 5 the Senators have controlled a 56.8% share of the goals and a little more than 50% of the shot attempts with Hoffman. Without Hoffman the Senators have been a well below average team controlling just 47.3% of the goals and 48% of the shot attempts.

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2 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

Since entering the league in 2014, only nine players have scored more 5 v 5 goals than Hoffman. If you adjust for time on ice Hoffman looks even better as just six players have scored more 5 v 5 goals per 60 minutes played. Those six? Vladimir Tarasenko, Rick Nash, Tyler Seguin, Patrick Kane, Corey Perry and Alex Ovechkin.

Hoffman isn’t just a goal scorer/point producer, though. He has shown the ability to drive play and the Senators have been much better with him on the ice than without.

At 5 v 5 the Senators have controlled a 56.8% share of the goals and a little more than 50% of the shot attempts with Hoffman. Without Hoffman the Senators have been a well below average team controlling just 47.3% of the goals and 48% of the shot attempts.

 

I'm glad to now say that his contract status has now been rectified.

 

I agree with you about Hoffman's play. When he's on, he's on. But, every once in a while, he'll have a stretch in which he's not putting up like he's capable of. If we get rid of those stretches, I think the sky is the limit. Get rid of those stretches, and if he's not already a 40-goal scorer, he's not far from it. Quite frankly, I'd love to see what the Sens offense looks like with both Hoffman and Karlsson on top of their games for a whole season. Let Karlsson have another season like the one he just had with Hoffman taking a big development step, and we might start seeing some gaudy numbers.

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5 hours ago, ScottM said:

But, every once in a while, he'll have a stretch in which he's not putting up like he's capable of.

 

 

I think that is what they call being human. Lots of players have that issue in many different sports. It comes with being successful. It creates pressure and with pressure you either have leaks or diamonds.

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21 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

I think that is what they call being human. Lots of players have that issue in many different sports. It comes with being successful. It creates pressure and with pressure you either have leaks or diamonds.

 

It is, but I also think added consistency comes with more experience in many cases, and it's important to remember as well that Hoffman only has two seasons under his belt. I'm very high on Hoffman, and I certainly didn't mean to suggest otherwise from my first post. I'm just saying that I think he has some development to go and that I think he's only going to get better. Honestly, I think the same could be said of Stone. If both of them reach what I think is their full potential, it's going to be a thing of beauty.

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  • 3 weeks later...

A few other Sens not commented on much:

 

Ryan Dzingel was a hard working scorer for the Buckeyes who never took a shift off, he is lightning fast and I could see him as a very usable middle six winger who gives defenses fits if he manages to stick. Solid energy guy who can score a little. My kind of player.

 

I like smith, a self made player who has gotten the most out of his abilities kind of like Abdelkader in Detroit or a poor mans version of Marchand, but I think he has peaked and dthink he will slip a bit. Still he can play all three forward positions and is nasty to go up against.

 

 If the Senators give Thomas Chabot a shot as the 6th defender, I think the 19 year old (20 at midseason) will not embarrass himself. He has nothing to prove yet at Junior having scored at a point a game pace last season. He can score and from what I have read is a smart player and the former first rounder would do well making his bones 12-13 minutes a night in the NHL. He cannot be any worse than Claesson, Boroweicki, Harpur, Kostka or Wideman. Of course that bar is set pretty low.....

 

  I read a few places over the summer that Bobby Ryan is quietly being considered as trade bait to add a top four defender, he has five years remaining on his deal and a limited no trade contract, he has to submit a list of ten teams he would be willing to be dealt to. Ryan seems to have found a fit in Ottawa and likes it there, but if he could be convinced to go back to Anaheim for a Fowler, it would certainly fix the glaring weakness of a puck moving minute eater on the second pair. With Phaneuf/Karlsson followed by a Methot/Fowler the weaknesses of the third pair would be less glaring. Kid forwards such as Hoffman, Pageau and Stone would be given the chance to step up to another level. Ryan was always beloved in Anaheim, I think he would jump at the chance to go back there and in my mind, at least, it makes perfect sense for both clubs as long as the Ducks are willing to invest in five years of Ryan.

 

 

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6 hours ago, yave1964 said:

If the Senators give Thomas Chabot a shot as the 6th defender, I think the 19 year old (20 at midseason) will not embarrass himself. He has nothing to prove yet at Junior having scored at a point a game pace last season. He can score and from what I have read is a smart player and the former first rounder would do well making his bones 12-13 minutes a night in the NHL. He cannot be any worse than Claesson, Boroweicki, Harpur, Kostka or Wideman. Of course that bar is set pretty low.....

 

I'd like to see this, tbh. Seriously, we have nothing to lose, and it'll give us a glimpse at what the kid can do right now. If he's at the level of the others mentioned, he doesn't have to stay for now and can be sent down to develop. If he's at least at their level, however, that gives some obviously hope for future improvement. If he's ahead of them... THANK GOODNESS!

 

6 hours ago, yave1964 said:

I read a few places over the summer that Bobby Ryan is quietly being considered as trade bait to add a top four defender, he has five years remaining on his deal and a limited no trade contract, he has to submit a list of ten teams he would be willing to be dealt to. Ryan seems to have found a fit in Ottawa and likes it there, but if he could be convinced to go back to Anaheim for a Fowler, it would certainly fix the glaring weakness of a puck moving minute eater on the second pair. With Phaneuf/Karlsson followed by a Methot/Fowler the weaknesses of the third pair would be less glaring. Kid forwards such as Hoffman, Pageau and Stone would be given the chance to step up to another level. Ryan was always beloved in Anaheim, I think he would jump at the chance to go back there and in my mind, at least, it makes perfect sense for both clubs as long as the Ducks are willing to invest in five years of Ryan.

 

I really don't want to see Ryan go, as I really like the guy, and I think he's been pretty good for us. That said, I'd welcome this trade. Ceci, whom I believe to be a solid player for us in the future (if the management doesn't mess up on the contract negotiations) being moved to the third pairing would certainly show that things are getting on track.

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