2017 Calder Trophy

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

 

 

 

The three nominees: Laine, Matthews, Werenski.

 

All three had exceptional years and on any given year, all three would be worthy.

But let's be honest...this award is Matthews' to lose for a few reasons:

 

1-- Werenski got hurt towards year's end, which, fair or not, hampers his ability to "hang" with the dynamic forwards, Matthews and Laine in the Calder race.

 

2--Laine is over in Wpg, while Mattews plays for the bright lights of Toronto. Again, fair or not, this garners Matthews MUCH more attention.

 

3-- The Leafs made the playoffs, the Jets did not. Probably not really indicative of the individual rookies' accomplishments this year, but once again, fair or not, it WILL factor in.

 

Numbers-wise, Werenski, being a defenseman, will obviously lag behind in terms of point production. That is just a fact of life.

And while I think ANYONE would love for their rookie D-man to have the kind of year Werenski did, the numbers for very good rookie forwards just look so much better to the voters.

 

Laine and Matthews actually have very, very similar numbers....but again, the Toronto vs Winnipeg factor plus Leafs in, Jets out will factor heavily here.

 

Here are some highlights:

GP:

Matthews- 82 , Laine-73

 

Goals:

Matthews-40, Laine- 36

 

Assists:

Matthews- 29, Laine- 28

 

Total Points:

Matthews- 69 , Laine- 64

 

PPG:

Laine- 0.88 , Matthews- 0.84

 

Multi-point games:

Laine- 20 , Matthews- 17

 

ZERO point games (or the percentage of games the player was held pointless in a contest....a very interesting stat BTW):

Matthews- 43.9% , Laine- 47.9%

 

PPG/PPP:

Matthews- 9/22 , Laine- 9/14

 

Plus/Minus

Laine +7, Matthews +2

 

Giveaways/Takeaways

Matthews- 44/76 , Laine- 55/43

 

Hits:

Laine- 80 , Matthews- 21

 

Blocked Shots:

Matthews- 61 , Laine- 33

 

FO Wins/FO %

Matthews- 530 / 46.8% , Laine- 0 / 0% (ok, ok...Matthews is a C, while Laine is a winger, so not really fair here...hehe)

 

SOG:

Matthews- 279 , Laine- 204

 

Shooting%:

Laine- 17.6% , Matthews- 14.3%

 

 

So we see that Matthews was a slightly more dynamic offensive player than Laine was this year...but then again, the entire Leafs team is built that way vs the Jets, so that may have had something to do with it.

 

Meanwhile, Laine seemed to excel a bit better in the more physical and defensive aspects of the game, again, no surprise, as the Jets generally are better defensively than the Leafs....however, Matthews blocking THAT many more shots than Laine is pretty damned interesting....the young man doesn't seem to be afraid to step in front of cannons despite being a "star" player.

 

Laine missed a few games this season, but his PPG suggest he did slightly more production-wise with less time played.

But really, Laine's numbers would have had to have been OVERWHELMING in his favor to unseat the Toronto based rookie for his award, whereas, Matthews, though he took more relevant categories (if only by a bit each), probably would not have needed his numbers to be as overwhelming to reel in the Calder.

 

Anyone agree? Disagree? Let's hear it!

 

 

BTW, the stats above were gotten from dobberhockey using the compare-a-player feature.

Here is the link for any that wish to see the stats I didn't include:

http://www.dobberhockey.com/frozenpool_compare.php?compare[]=4478&compare[]=4491&sent=go&games=2016-2017%3AR%3A99

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

42 minutes ago, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

Anyone agree? Disagree? Let's hear it!

 

The things that the voters will look for are production (of course). Matthews and Laine seem almost dead even by the numbers. 

 

To me, the difference is: Matthews is a center -- which comes with a lot more responsibility than a winger. Matthews was also Toronto's best player. Was Laine the best player on the Winnipeg Jets?  

 

If not for Matthews, Toronto misses the playoffs (without a doubt). With or without Laine, the Jets miss the playoffs. 

 

I think it's enough to tilt the odds in Matthews favour. I'm just curious how close the voting will be (or whether it will be close at all).

 

 

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

And while I don't have numbers for Laine, I can say that Matthews committed 20 defensive errors this season and had a .986 defensive percentage which was good for middle-of-the-pack on the Leafs. He finished with a +49 (using my True +/- data) for best on the team. True +/- being Points - Defensive Errors.

 

 

 

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

3 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

The things that the voters will look for are production (of course). Matthews and Laine seem almost dead even by the numbers. 

 

To me, the difference is: Matthews is a center -- which comes with a lot more responsibility than a winger. Matthews was also Toronto's best player. Was Laine the best player on the Winnipeg Jets?  

 

If not for Matthews, Toronto misses the playoffs (without a doubt). With or without Laine, the Jets miss the playoffs. 

 

I think it's enough to tilt the odds in Matthews favour. I'm just curious how close the voting will be (or whether it will be close at all).

 

 

 

 

 

Despite all three rookies having the stellar seasons they did, there really isn't any suspense here.

I would be curious as well to see if I am wrong and some voters saw it differently and DID make it close, but I doubt it.

 

Some years, one could argue one way or another for a particular candidate (take a look over at the Selke for instance...the nominees there. One can make a case for EACH one of them), but as far as these three go, even putting aside the "Toronto" factor, I think it just will be Matthews hands-down.

 

Also, have a look at this from Dobbers...I added in Mitch Marner, and yea, his numbers generally lag behind both Matthews and Laine, but they are still good for a rookie, and he did that being the C BEHIND Matthews.

 

http://www.dobberhockey.com/frozenpool_compare.php?compare[]=4478&compare[]=4491&compare[]=4169&sent=go&games=2016-2017%3AR%3A99

[FD19372]

If Auston Matthews isn't the winner, the Russians hacked the election process.  As good as Laine is, the Leafs don't even get a sniff of the playoffs without Matthews.