"Big Five" Questions for O and B in '17-'18

[King Knut]

On 7/4/2017 at 3:00 PM, Podein25 said:

 

Greetings Howie and Happy 4th of July to you and your beautiful country. 

 

Here are my two cents on your 5 Qs

 

1. G. I agree with you that "appearance or narrative" may be more important than anything else, but overall I think he will rebound. I think more young legs in the lineup will rejuvenate him. After all, he has to be as excited as we are with what's in the pipe, no?

 

2. Goal. I have no faith in Ellvirth staying healthy, but on the off-chance that he does, he could surprise. Same with Elliott. It's not who I would have gone with, but the price was right, expectations are low, and he has lots to prove after his deleterious performance in the playoffs. 

 

3. D. Provorov has already shown promise, the question is who makes the club out of camp: Hagg, Alt, Morin, Sanheim? Clearly the opportunity is there with Hexy not re-signing MDZ and not signing any other D. I say Hagg and Alt have the best chance. Sanheim gets a call up at some point. 

 

4. 4th line Philosophy. I'm not sure what to say here. I think we need more skill throughout the lineup, including the 3rd and 4th lines. But I don't think we will ever move away from the energy/checking model, if only because there's no middle class in today's hard cap NHL. The guys playing in the bottom six can't cost too much so you get what you pay for. Personally, I want speed and possession guys there.

 

5. Hakstol. He's spent all his time at the Jr and College levels so on paper he's the perfect development coach. He also played D as a pro (IHL) so he should be the perfect guy for our young D. We shall see....

 

Our PP has to be better. More movement is called for.It's imperative to make guys move out of shooting lanes in todays' NHL. And you do that by moving.

 

Re: scouting. Personally, I like our scouting. If you look at the Frost pick at 27, you see a priority on hockey IQ and character/work ethic. And that's perfectly fine with me. 

 

 

 

 

1. The thing with G to me has for the past few seasons always had more to do with his usage than his age or his injuries. 

    I actually do believe that he's got plenty left in the tank.  Improving the actual defense of the defense is the first step.  Counterintuitive, and I'm a broken record, but if  Morin, Hagg and Gudas can be better at locking down their own end and shutting down play driving against the Flyers, then Provo, Ghost and Sanheim can improve on controlling and outletting the puck and then G and Jake and all our other shiny pieces can work on getting an attack that only has to beat a defender or two instead of three or four.  

 

2. The only thing I really give a damn about regarding goaltending this season is that Stolarz and maybe even Lyon get as many minutes as possible and that Hakstol doesn't remain idiotic about which goalie he starts when, but I'll get into that later.  I don't care about Elliot's deleterious performance in the playoffs because IMHO if the Flyers don't win the Stanley Cup because Elliot doesn't do well in the playoffs, then everything is GOING AWESOME.  There's a reason Elliot's contract is two years.  In two years this team is going to have two completely different goaltenders in all likelihood and in all likelihood they're both already in the organization.  In the mean time IMHO basically every UFA goalie out there was virtually identical.  Meh Meh Meh.  Who cares?  I'd have been fine with Mason, but the team wasn't and he wanted more money than Hextall had anyway. Let's talk about goalies in two years.  If we're upset about the goalie this year then everything else will be working fine and we should all shut up and be thrilled.

 

3.  It will be Hagg and Morin first.  Maybe Sanheim depending on what Hextall plans on doing with Mac and who shines ost in camp.  I think they're ready.  Not that they won't screw up.  They will.  They won't be as great as Provo was as a rookie or they'd have been playing last year (and I hate to be THAT guy, but as great as Provo was, he wasn't as good as we all keep saying he was.  He's awesome and will be fantastic, that's clear... but give him a decent partner and another year or two and watch him soar).  Anyway, I think they will be good and a step in the right direction and they will only get better.  

 

4.  I don't know that the 4th will move to a scoring model necessarily, but with the roster this team has now and the pieces that are already gone and that they have to replace them with, the 4th line will definitely look different.  They will not put Patrick on the 4th IMHO.  They'll move Filppula to Patrick's wing (Filppula has extensive experience at Wing... he's been a wing more than a center in recent years) before they do that, or at least I would.  That combination would be better balance on the top 3 lines.

 

I suspect Laughton or Lehtera make the team over Vex to start and that mostly for waiver issues (Vex is waiver exempt, Scott is not).  But PEB is gone.  VDV is gone.  Lyuby is gone.  The 4th line will most likely have Raffle or Weise as well as Read on it.  Either our 1st or 2nd and 3rd line wingers or St. Louis' 2C from last year will be on the 4th this year.  That's a big step up.  They can all check and play position and play driving hockey better than PEB and VDV and Lubby.

 

Long term I actually like Vecchione.  The guy's been a monster on faceoffs his whole career and even though his games in the spring were almost irrelevant to all involved, he killed it on faceoffs.  That's huge. Essentially the 4th line doesn't have to switch to a full on scoring line to score more and be a LOT more effective.  Imagine basically a better version of last year's third line taking the ice after a PP ends instead of PEB and VDV? It's got to be good.

 

5. This is the big one.  Bigger than any of the rookies or prospects or anything.   Is Hakstol a real coach for this league?  I have no idea yet.  

 

I like his system to be honest.  I really do.  I just think we haven't seen it for real for more than a few games.  I think with the right talent it will do well.  We may just have that lineup now and mostly that'll come in the form of Hagg and Morin being able to better balance out the D to play the system the right way.

 

But systems and x's and o's are how you coach before and after a game.  Hakstol needs to work on the things that make a coach good during a game.  He made a LOT of green horn coaching issues that frankly he needs to get over.  Some have improved over the course of two seasons... I really hope we don't see any backsliding.  I hope Knoblach can help.

 

Case and point, picking a starting goalie. Steve Mason has NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER beaten the New Jersey devils.  Meanwhile Anthony Stolarz grew up in Jersey.  Yet when the Flyers needed to get some momentum going and Mason had just played a billion games in a row and clearly could have used a break... Hakstol in his brilliance starts Mason.  Who gets OBLITERATED.   The next time they play the Devils Mason has the flu and isn't available.  Neuvirth passes out and Stolarz (who began the day on a bus to Scranton 4 hours earlier) steps in and wins the game handily.  Hakstol is bad at picking goalies and these kids need minutes.  I don't expect Stolarz or Lyon to be the #1 goalie of the future, but they might be the backup and they might get good enough to play as part of a tandem in the years ahead as this team moves from what it's got in net to what it wants in net.

 

Aside from that, he got better at massaging refs for equalizing calls and letting them know when they'd gone to far in equalizing in the wrong direction--THAT was a big problem early on and it cost them games by itself.

 

Special teams on this team are kind of a disaster.  Hextall may have helped matters by taking PEB and VDV out of Hakstol's hands.  Still, the fact of the matter is that Coots should never be on the PP.  He's just not good at it.  And now he simply doesn't have to be and that's good.  This is probably where Knoblach comes in, but Lindblom and Patrick and Weal and Konecney should really see some PP time this season.  They ARE too slow and they DO NOT move, everyone's totally right about that.  Weal and Knoecney can move and Patrick and Lindblom can shoot.  Whether it all translates to the NHL is still unseen, but the pieces are there.  It could work.  

 

Finally my other big complain about Hakstol as a coach.. TAKE A TIME OUT FOR GOD'S SAKE!!!  Not ever coach can be Lavvy when it comes to turning the momentum around in a timeout, but for the love of god.. GIVE IT A TRY.  When you're up 3-1 and suddenly it's 3-3... CALL A TIME OUT!  Shut  things down.  Chill things out.  SLOW THE MOMENTUM.  That's what it's there for and it actually works.  This is coaching dude.  

 

Oh I forgot, another controversial thing about Hakstol that I will defend is the benching of young good players and the not benching of old bad ones.  "Why is Ghost benched while MacDonald is still playing?!!!"  how many times did we whine about that?  Insert PEB or VDV and Konecney if you like.  

 

The long story short is most of the time, the guys he benched got better when they came back.  Alternatively, benching Mac or VDV or PEB is NOT likely to improve their games.  He benched the kids because they CAN be better.  He didn't bench the vets because frankly, they're never going to get any better.  What you see is what you get.  Now PEB and VDV are gone and TK will have to show up for real.  Better that he learned the lessons he did (hopefully).  I get it and frankly it seems to have worked.  

 

Long story short is that the heir apparent is now standing net to Hakstol behind the bench.  He doesn't have to win a cup this year or probably even get close, but if the team doesn't at least LOOK better and seem like they're in the right direction, I think it'll be a front office commute for Hakstol right quickly.  

Hextall has fired outright two of his long term friends.  Hakstol was a bit of a Flyer and his kid's coach... I think the leash is short.  If he does get fired it won't be because he's a bad coach and should never coach in the NHL again... he's just got a lot of learning to do. 

 

[King Knut]

On 7/4/2017 at 10:56 PM, hf101 said:

 

I expect Lindblom to play on the 2nd line with Konecny on the first unit in place of Schenn.

 

I don't think Schenn will be as hard to replace as we fear.  He was kinda crap at even strength and there's something to the argument that his PP production had a lot to do with Ghost, Jake and Ghost making things happen around him.  

 

I kinda like a more balanced approach with Lindblom on the first (if he can skate well enough) with Jake and G.

I'd put Filppula with Patrick and Simmonds  and then Konecny or Weal with Coots and Weise or Raffl.    That literally leaves Lehtera, Read, Laughton Vecchione and whichever 2 of the previously mentioned wingers don't make the top 9 to fight it out on the 4th.  That's 6 guys fighting fo 3 spots.  

 

Vex is most likely Lehigh Valley bound at least to start the year and then It's almost definite that a veteran (Lehtera or Read or Weise) will be in the AHL as well because I assume Hextall would rather lose one of them to waivers and save some cap space than lost Raffl or Laughton for nothing.  

[ruxpin]

5 hours ago, King Knut said:

Oh I forgot, another controversial thing about Hakstol that I will defend is the benching of young good players and the not benching of old bad ones.  "Why is Ghost benched while MacDonald is still playing?!!!"  how many times did we whine about that?  Insert PEB or VDV and Konecney if you like.  

 

The long story short is most of the time, the guys he benched got better when they came back.  Alternatively, benching Mac or VDV or PEB is NOT likely to improve their games.  He benched the kids because they CAN be better.  He didn't bench the vets because frankly, they're never going to get any better.  What you see is what you get.  Now PEB and VDV are gone and TK will have to show up for real.  Better that he learned the lessons he did (hopefully).  I get it and frankly it seems to have worked.  

 

Thank you!

[scoopyten]

5 hours ago, King Knut said:

 

 

Oh I forgot, another controversial thing about Hakstol that I will defend is the benching of young good players and the not benching of old bad ones.  "Why is Ghost benched while MacDonald is still playing?!!!"  how many times did we whine about that?  Insert PEB or VDV and Konecney if you like.  

 

The long story short is most of the time, the guys he benched got better when they came back.  Alternatively, benching Mac or VDV or PEB is NOT likely to improve their games.  He benched the kids because they CAN be better.  He didn't bench the vets because frankly, they're never going to get any better.  What you see is what you get.  Now PEB and VDV are gone and TK will have to show up for real.  Better that he learned the lessons he did (hopefully).  I get it and frankly it seems to have worked.  

 

 

 

This is fair, but my issue isn't benching the "bad old players" to make them better. My issue was running guys like VandeVelde & Bellemare out for 82 games, ahead of not just young guys, but established guys like Raffl, Read or even Weise. Granted, none of those three are world beaters, but at the same time, they've been far better NHLers than either VandeVelde or Bellemare.

 

It's not really an issue of benching PEB, VDV to make them better, it's more about icing an optimal line up, at least for me.

[radoran]

11 hours ago, scoopyten said:

This is fair, but my issue isn't benching the "bad old players" to make them better. My issue was running guys like VandeVelde & Bellemare out for 82 games, ahead of not just young guys, but established guys like Raffl, Read or even Weise. Granted, none of those three are world beaters, but at the same time, they've been far better NHLers than either VandeVelde or Bellemare.

 

It's not really an issue of benching PEB, VDV to make them better, it's more about icing an optimal line up, at least for me.

 

The primary reason Raffl and Read didn't play full seasons was that they both had injuries. Raffl had an upper body in October and a lower body in February. Read had an upper body in December and a broken arm in March.

 

And the reason Weise didn't get as much ice time is that he flat out stunk for the better part of the season. He had all of five points before March (50 games). Granted he did play well once the pressure was off and the Flyers were eliminated for the season (10 points, 14 games). But the fact remains he's simply not all that good.

 

I'm not at all sorry to see VDV and PEB gone, but they weren't "taking someone's spot" they were just being the players they were. By all accounts the fourth line should be a heckuva lot more productive next season.

[vis]

On 7/4/2017 at 2:29 PM, Howie58 said:

1)  Will Giroux Break Below 50 Points?

 

No, unless he is injured.  Putting up less than 50 points would be a disaster on many levels, regardless of whether his production is picked up elsewhere.

 

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2)  Will "Elllvirth" Work Out and Steal a Few Games? 

 

I'm sure both will have hot - and cold - streaks.  Overall, I do not see an improvement over last year's tandem, particularly with a younger defense in front of them.  Could be a really bad situation actually, especially in the early part of the season.

 

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3)  Will the Young D Pan Out?

 

I don't worry about Provorov at all.  He may have a sophomore slump, like Ghost, but he will be fine in the long run.  

 

The following is in order of who I think has the best chance of making the team out of camp:

 

1) Hagg is at a point where he needs a shot to see what he can do.  For that reason, I think he makes the team out of camp barring a complete letdown.  However, I can see him being sent back to the Phantoms during the season if he doesn't prove he's worthy of full-time NHL play.

 

2) Morin brings some much needed toughness and size on the back end so he fills a need.  I like his competitiveness and that he has continued to work on his game.  He deserves a long look at camp, but I am not as confident as I am with Hagg that he will make the team.  The Flyers might think he could use a little more time in the AHL.  In time, I think he will be fine as a solid, bottom pairing/PK d-man.

 

3) Sanheim could use another year in the AHL to build confidence and strength.  I don't know where Sanheim is in terms of physical development.  He was a rail coming out of juniors and needed to gain strength.  I would be surprised if he makes the team out of camp, unless he blows them away.  However, if Hagg falters and is sent back to the Phantoms mid-season, I could see Sanheim getting a chance to move up.

 

4) Myers will be in the AHL no matter how good he is in camp, unless Hagg, Morin and Sanheim all have terrible camps and/or the Flyers are plagued with injuries.  His concussion history worries me.  Imo, he's got the potential to be the best of the "big 4" d-men not yet on the Flyers.

 

 Hextall recently said that, although he had no interest in Markov, he did expect to bring a vet to camp on a TO contract in case the kids aren't ready (don't disagree with this).  My sense is that there is definitely one spot open for Hagg or Morin to take out of camp, but it's not certain to me that a second spot is available.

 

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4)  Are we Saying Goodbye to a Checking Line Model?

 

I don't see how they get balanced scoring with this bottom 6 group.  I just don't see them having the personnel that enables them to roll four lines evenly.  And, imo, they need an "energy" line.  TO's fourth line was great in the POs.

 

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5)  Is Hakstol a Good Developmental Coach?

 

Don't know.  I kind of think it's hard for the HC to handle coaching responsibilities and simultaneously work closely with young guys to develop them.  I wonder if some of the development work is handled by others or will be by the new assistant.

 

There are a couple of drums I keep beating re: Hakstol:

 

1) Ghost said his improved play toward the end of the year came as a result of him just playing his game and not worrying about getting yelled at.  On its face, that sentiment strikes me as a shot at Hakstol and evidences a player's unhappiness with how he's being "developed."  If that's the case, Hakstol and Ghost need to get on the same page quickly.  It also gives me concern for some of the other young guys.

 

2) Aside from developing young players, I wonder how effective Hakstol is at developing the team.  The 5v5 play has been abysmal.  Giroux, Schenn or Couturier have either regressed or failed to progress at center 5v5 under his watch.  What is the issue?

 

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Honorable Mentions:  Are Chris Pryor and his staff leading to the right picks?  Will changes in Assistant Coach improve the team, particularly PP?

Can't argue with the picks when the Flyers' prospects are counted among the top 3 prospect pools in the NHL.  The Frost pick was a surprise, but I suppose they felt that, although he hasn't put up big numbers and may not have a particularly high ceiling, they feel he has a good shot at making the team at some point.  We have heard Hextall say a number of times that they need to "hit" on players in the draft.  I don't think Hextall means that they are swinging for the fences with their picks and hoping each player is a top 6F or top 4D.  Rather, I think he means that you need to draft prospects who have better than average chance at making the roster.  With regard to Frost, I suppose they felt he has a better chance at making the roster in some capacity rather than another player who, although he might have more upside, might not have as great of a chance of reaching that upside and making the team.

 

No idea about the change in Assistant Coach.  The guy comes highly regarded, but this is the NHL.  

 

I'm much more worried at the PK, actually.  Who plays on the PK units now that VV and PEB are gone?  I know the PK was terrible with them on the roster, but their departures do leave holes in the PK group that must be filled.  I suppose Lehtera takes a spot.  However, I don't think Lehtera was a regular PKer for the Blues judging by his ice time last year.  Who else?  Raffl?  Laughton?  Vecchione?  The Flyers have done nothing, personnel-wise, to improve the PK group.  And, as noted above, have not improved the goaltending and the defense will likely feature some young players.  Without improved systems play, the PK is likely to be even worse this year.

[scoopyten]

8 hours ago, radoran said:

 

The primary reason Raffl and Read didn't play full seasons was that they both had injuries. Raffl had an upper body in October and a lower body in February. Read had an upper body in December and a broken arm in March.

 

And the reason Weise didn't get as much ice time is that he flat out stunk for the better part of the season. He had all of five points before March (50 games). Granted he did play well once the pressure was off and the Flyers were eliminated for the season (10 points, 14 games). But the fact remains he's simply not all that good.

 

I'm not at all sorry to see VDV and PEB gone, but they weren't "taking someone's spot" they were just being the players they were. By all accounts the fourth line should be a heckuva lot more productive next season.

 

Bellemare played 82 games. VandeVelde played all but the last game. All three of Read, Raffl and Wiese were healthy scratches at one point or another.

 

Outside of being good guys who work hard, there's really no reason to dress either Bellemare or VandeVelde over those 3 guys when they are all healthy. Bellemare is among the least productive NHL forwards over the past 3 years, and worse, he routinely gets buried in possession metrics. VandeVelde's numbers are similar. They're mediocre defensive players and do little to generate chances. Even as PKers, they're subpar.

 

Read and Raffl have strong histories as being decent play drivers and good shot suppressors. Wiese was actual pretty good in terms of possession and play driving, despite his lack of production-and his production was still better than Bellemare's. I get that both Raffl and Read dealt with injuries, but they also were healthy scratches at points, where neither Bellemare or VandeVelde were. To me, that's a failure to optimize the line up.

 

Granted, none of Wiese, Read or Raffl are great players, but VandeVelde is a fringe NHLer and Bellemare is among the least productive forwards in the entire league. It's not "taking somebody's spot" it's icing a less than optimal lineup.

[radoran]

45 minutes ago, scoopyten said:

 

Bellemare played 82 games. VandeVelde played all but the last game. All three of Read, Raffl and Wiese were healthy scratches at one point or another.

 

Again, I didn't like either of PEB and VDV, but Read and Raffl had two injuries during the year so "healthy scratch" or not they missed time. And, again, Weise was simply terrible for most of the season.