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WordsOfWisdom

Auston Matthews (hypothezided )50-Goal Season - The Actual Projected Stats

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7 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

Given the frequency of cancelled seasons, the variance in season length over the years, etc..... the only reasonable way to compare players is to compare their trajectories.

 

Wut?

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1 minute ago, Podein25 said:

 

Wut?

 

Basically a way of putting everyone on a "level playing field" so to speak, although it still doesn't account for variance among different eras (scoring for example).  

 

It makes it an apples to apples comparison at least.  That's what I'm saying.  :) 

 

 

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I think if recognition to Matthews is what is desired here,   Yeah..., Matthews was having the best seasons of his young career.  Fortunately he is young and will stay healthy to have many more great seasons.  He may make a lot of records for the Leafs, and he could also have a career ending injury.... we won't know until they play the games.  Will Matthews someday be the Best Maple Leaf Ever... maybe... if so... it is great for him.  

 

IMO projections are just that, projections, they can be skewed to  however you want the data to look by adding or removing variables.  Stats are actual records of what is done.  Projections can be helpful in planning for the future, but they can also lead to issues when circumstances beyond control change the actual results.  

 

Awards are not handed out for projections, but chances are Matthews received some sort of MVP award.... right?  ( I didn't look it up)  If so then he can be compared to other MVP the Leaf's have have given awards to.  

 

Was the 50 goal mark important to Matthews?  Maybe, of course if it affected his compensation for a performance bonus as a goal, but then maybe MVP takes that place?  Should he receive that bonus based upon projected stats?   That is up to the Leaf's organization to determine but they've also lost a ton of money with this Virus so it sucks.... but so has it for everyone.   Most of us haven't achieved what we projected to do this year.

 

 

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6 hours ago, hf101 said:

I think if recognition to Matthews is what is desired here,   Yeah..., Matthews was having the best seasons of his young career.

 

Agreed. Unfortunately, I think we're still living in a world where people only view the final totals for the season and that's how their TOP 10 best list begins for any player in any statistic. 

 

Now, if every season was 82 games (like clockwork) then it would never become an issue and we could always compare players using those metrics and be accurate.  However, given the increasing number of seasons that are being cut up (due to lockouts, strikes, COVID-19, etc.) I think those metrics are no longer valid for player comparison or for player compensation.  

 

Thus, I think we need to move away from "50-goal" seasons and other standards of excellence and create new ones using the means that I've described here, so that it doesn't matter how many games actually get played (assuming we have a reasonably large sample size), only where the player was headed. So if you score 40 goals in a lockout shortened 41-game season, you're up there with the Brett Hull's of the world for scoring excellence. Nobody should ever say "but Hull actually did it when he scored 80" because what they should say instead is "Player X would have done it too given the same opportunity presented to Hull"..... etc.. 

 

We should stop doubting that the player would have got there and accept that they surely would have.  :) 

 

6 hours ago, hf101 said:

Awards are not handed out for projections, but chances are Matthews received some sort of MVP award.... right?  ( I didn't look it up)  If so then he can be compared to other MVP the Leaf's have have given awards to.  

 

I was trying to see where Matthews season places him among all-time Leafs goal scorers because he's right up there. He has already surpassed the Kessel's and Sundin's of the Leafs world and is operating at a level that very few Leafs players have ever seen.

 

His raw stat totals won't show that because people will see 47 goals and think "meh".... but what they should be seeing is the 55/56 number that I kept referring to. That's where he's at. Maybe it'll take three or four years before the NHL plays another 82-game season, and maybe Matthews will have to hit 60 goals before anyone recognizes him at that level. Maybe he'll sneak up on on everyone and they'll all say he took his game "to another level" if/when he finally does play enough games to hit those milestones. Or maybe he'll never play an 82-game season. Maybe something will always get in the way to derail those good seasons, and it'll cost him a HOF spot someday when people look at his career stats and see that he "only" scored 499 goals (in 700 games or whatever), etc....  You know how it goes sadly.  :( 

 

 

 

 

 

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44 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Agreed. Unfortunately, I think we're still living in a world where people only view the final totals for the season and that's how their TOP 10 best list begins for any player in any statistic. 

 

Now, if every season was 82 games (like clockwork) then it would never become an issue and we could always compare players using those metrics and be accurate.  However, given the increasing number of seasons that are being cut up (due to lockouts, strikes, COVID-19, etc.) I think those metrics are no longer valid for player comparison or for player compensation.  

 

Thus, I think we need to move away from "50-goal" seasons and other standards of excellence and create new ones using the means that I've described here, so that it doesn't matter how many games actually get played (assuming we have a reasonably large sample size), only where the player was headed. So if you score 40 goals in a lockout shortened 41-game season, you're up there with the Brett Hull's of the world for scoring excellence. Nobody should ever say "but Hull actually did it when he scored 80" because what they should say instead is "Player X would have done it too given the same opportunity presented to Hull"..... etc.. 

 

We should stop doubting that the player would have got there and accept that they surely would have.  :) 

 

 

I was trying to see where Matthews season places him among all-time Leafs goal scorers because he's right up there. He has already surpassed the Kessel's and Sundin's of the Leafs world and is operating at a level that very few Leafs players have ever seen.

 

His raw stat totals won't show that because people will see 47 goals and think "meh".... but what they should be seeing is the 55/56 number that I kept referring to. That's where he's at. Maybe it'll take three or four years before the NHL plays another 82-game season, and maybe Matthews will have to hit 60 goals before anyone recognizes him at that level. Maybe he'll sneak up on on everyone and they'll all say he took his game "to another level" if/when he finally does play enough games to hit those milestones. Or maybe he'll never play an 82-game season. Maybe something will always get in the way to derail those good seasons, and it'll cost him a HOF spot someday when people look at his career stats and see that he "only" scored 499 goals (in 700 games or whatever), etc....  You know how it goes sadly.  :( 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is an absolutely outstanding post! :)  And I mean that sincerely.  Nobody is doubting the player AM is going to be.  He had an outstanding season.  Just come out and say that 50 goal seasons should not be a measuring stick.  This post clears up exactly what you want to say....  Really good post @WordsOfWisdom ...Really good post.

 

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2 hours ago, hf101 said:

no goals for Matthews???  :cool[1]:

 

:PopcornSmiley2:

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12 hours ago, hf101 said:

no goals for Matthews???  :cool[1]:

 

Now I'm gonna have to create a pre and post COVID-19 statistical modifier for players.  :bigteeth:

 

9 hours ago, Podein25 said:

:PopcornSmiley2:

 

:haha:

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      Matthews could also have stepped on the ice for his next shift in game 71 and had a career ending injury. It's why you actually have to accomplish the records to get them.    Reggie Leach scored 61 goals in a season....drunk! Does that mean he scored 71 in WordsofWisdom format? Or 81?
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      Of course it was impressive; but that's because Gretzky actually did those things. Look, I *am* sympathetic to the cause to a certain extent. Leon Draisaitl was on pace to score the most points since Lemieux put up 161 in 1996, but what happened is what happened, and he simply didn't do it. Do I think Matthews would have scored 50? Yes. Did he? No.     Yes to the first one, no to the second. Charlie Conacher led the NHL in goal scoring 5 times.  

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