JR Ewing

28 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

from various reports too many to list here Carter Hart has played his last game in Philly regardless of the out come.

They're likely all finished as players. They could maybe play in the KHL if they escape conviction, but their futures in hockey are pretty much done.

I can share this one as well, from yesterday:

Courtesy of the CBC, Michel McLeod officially charged.

There's no longer any question whether or not Hart has taken leave for any other reason than that he, Michael McLeod, Dillon Dube, and Cal Foote will be charged with sexual assault. We can close down this thread and further discussion can be re-directed to the new one:

Four National Hockey League players – Carter Hart, Michael McLeod, Dillon Dube, and Cal Foote – have been directed to surrender to police in London, Ont., to be charged with sexual assault in connection with an alleged incident that occurred during a Hockey Canada event in the city in June 2018, two sources familiar with the matter told TSN.

The players are expected to surrender before the London Police Service holds a press conference on Monday to update the public on the high-profile case.

Lawyers for the four players either declined to comment or did not respond to a request for comment.

The Globe and Mail reported on Jan. 24 that London police have instructed five members of Canada’s 2018 World Junior team to surrender to be charged with sexual assault. Former Ottawa Senators player Alex Formenton, who currently plays in Switzerland, reported to police on Jan. 28 to be officially charged.

Gary Ellis, the former head of Toronto Police Service’s sex crimes unit, told TSN in an interview that the players would be photographed, fingerprinted, and directed to sign an undertaking not to have contact with the alleged victim, either the first time they report to police or at a subsequent date.

The five players are accused of sexually assaulting a woman at a London hotel on June 19, 2018, following a Hockey Canada Foundation golf and gala event.

The complainant, a woman referred to as E.M. in court documents, met some of the players at a downtown bar following the event. She has alleged in a civil lawsuit that she left the bar with one man and had consensual sex with him. That man then invited other players to his room, without E.M.’s consent, to have sex with E.M., she alleged.  

None of the allegations against the players have been proven.

London police initially investigated E.M.’s allegations before closing the case in February 2019 without laying charges because the lead detective didn’t believe there was enough evidence.

In May 2022, TSN reported Hockey Canada had – without consulting any players involved in the alleged incident – quietly settled a $3.55-million lawsuit brought by E.M. against Hockey Canada, the Canadian Hockey League and eight unnamed players in connection to the alleged attack. The story led to parliamentary hearings and a maelstrom of public backlash. The NHL and Hockey Canada commissioned investigations and the London police in July 2022 said they would re-open their investigation.

In October 2022, London police filed a 94-page document in court requesting authorization to seek various court orders. In the filing, which was first reported by The Globe, a London police officer wrote that he believed there were reasonable grounds to believe that five members of the 2018 World Junior team had committed sexual assault in connection to the hotel incident.

The four players who have yet to report to police are all 25 years old and have all taken leaves of absence from their NHL teams.

Hart, a goalie with the Philadelphia Flyers, is playing in his sixth NHL season and in his final year of a three-year, $11.9 million contract.

Dube, a centre with the Calgary Flames, is in his sixth NHL season and is in the final year of a three-year contract worth an average of $2.3 million.

McLeod, a centre with the New Jersey Devils, is in his sixth NHL season. He signed a one-year, $1.4 million contract in July 2023.

Foote, whose father is former NHL defenceman Adam Foote, has played in four games with the Devils this season and also has played in the American Hockey League. He signed a one-year, $800,000 contract in August.

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/sources-confirm-nhl-players-facing-charges-in-sexual-assault-investigation-1.2069570

3 hours ago, hmc687 said:

 

Def makes you wonder.  Hart was in the rumour mill all offseason and people speculated he couldnt be moved because of outstanding legal issues.

 

Danny B did the next best thing and signed Errsson to an extension (most of us considered an overpayment) that makes a lot more sense today.  Then Danny B made additional excellent decisions by drafting potential blue chip goaltenders in Carson Bjarnason and Egor Zavragin.

 

Its strange to say but even with a potential Hart exodus...Flyers goaltending future looks...bright?

Even without Hart's issues, it was a good decision to draft good goaltending prospects. It's really just about impossible to have too many good goalies, especially with injury being a possibility.

I can't imagine the Oilers wanting to move Philip Borberg at all. Coach Woodcroft was giving him spot starts in his 12F/7D lineup, with few minutes, and when Kris Knoblauch took over the team, he switched to a conventional 12/6, and gave the first start at 3LD to Brett Kulak with Broberg initially being pressboxed. The first thing that happened was that the Oilers went on an 8-game winning streak, so the coach wasn't going to change too much in the lineup.

Rather than have a 22-year old defenseman sitting around and not playing, he was dispatched to Bakersfield, where he's been their top-pairing LD, playing in all situations. Coach Colin Chaulk is thrilled with him:

Quote

 

“He’s a horse, he’s a horse,” Chaulk told Bob Stauffer, host of Oilers Now. “He’s playing tonnes of minutes and he can skate. I believe there is something there… When he first got here he was that skinny first rounder, and kind of figuring out North American hockey. He’s become a man.

“He hasn’t played a lot of hockey in three years. It’s not anyone’s fault. That’s just the way it goes. You’re up, you’re down, you’re in the National Hockey League, you’re judged on a nightly basis, but I feel like he believes in us as coaches and he believes in the guys here. The guys like him. They believe in him. He helps our team. We’re helping him.

“He’s playing sometimes, I think it was the game before (last) he played 31 minutes. It’s astronomical minutes. But he’s also earning it. We’re not just shovelling him out the door. There’s some accountability there, but that’s also part of developing. He’s been a real bright spot.”

 

Since he's been down, Knoblauch has referred to wanting to bring him up to get back in the lineup, but after winning 8, then losing 3, now they've gone on the 16 game winning streak. He's not going to make a change like that in the middle of such a streak, so Broberg will continue to get at-bats in the AHL for now.

That isn't to say that he's untouchable prospect, but he is key for the Oilers future. Connor Brown's league minimum contract will slide into next year, and the team will be in cap trouble. Brett Kulak's contract probably paves his way off the team, slotting Broberg in nicely and cheaply in that spot. For on-ice and cap reasons, it's difficult to see the Oilers move on from Broberg for anything other than an over-pay.

26 minutes ago, hmc687 said:

 

What is the point of replying to me if you dont even read the post?  Triggered?

 

Anyhow, if you just read a paragraph or two of the links provided you'd find your answer;

 

"Other studies have figures in the same range. The FBI has put the number of "unfounded" rapes - those determined to be false after investigation - at 8%."

 

The case you mentioned, Ben Johnson, is not the same issue.  Can someone give consent when they're intoxicated is not the same as outright rape.  Theyre different issues.

Let's pretend for just a moment that statistics compiled by the FBI have the slightest thing to do with an allegation made, and charges presented, in Canada. I can do that...

You're conflating "unfounded" with false when they're not necessarily the same thing at all. The FBI's labelling of these 8% of cases includes allegations where the victim was intoxicated, couldn't find a witness to the assault (rapists strangely tend to commit their assaults without an audience), gave conflicting testimony. Many police departments have only the one designation of "unfounded" instead of other names like "uncorroborated" which is often more accurate. The very report you've quoted has come under heavy fire as being wildly inaccurate due to these reasons, and due to that reason, the FBI was forced to tighten up their case recording process. You're quoting stats from 30 years ago which were founded to be gathered poorly.

Going back to Canada, where the alleged crime has brought the charges, the London Police Service has an "unfounded" rate of 34%, 1.8 times that the rest of the country and 10x that of nearby cities like Toronto. They, like most investigators, have been trained not to properly investigate sexual assault, but mostly to poke holes in the statements of those making allegations, finding unfounded cases. When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail... Many times, they don't undertake even the crudest of investigative techniques, such as talking to witnesses or the accused before labelling cases as "unfounded". When pressed to provide clarity to their investigative process, the London Police responded with reports that redacted everything other than their detachment letterhead.

They are not open, they are poor investigators, and they were embarrassed by the sort of spotlight that this case has brought to their Keystone cops routine. Quite frankly, I think they're a disgrace.

3 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

The answer to that is....McDavid!

Yeah. It's his ability to process the game at that speed that really separates him from the pack. Hockey Psychology put it pretty well:

One of the goals in that clip, he was clocked at 40.4 km/hr, or 25.13 mph. The last three years leaders from NHL Edge top speed:

2024 - Owen Tippett, 24.20

2023 - Ryan Poehling, 24.32

2022 - Denis Gurianov, 24.60

In the time that NHL Edge has been tracking, Gurianov is the only player in the league to come to within 0.5 mph to McDavid. Paul Maurice suggested that McDavid is likely the fastest player in history, and if somebody was ever quicker, surely didn't have the hands or brain to keep up with his feet.

17 minutes ago, hmc687 said:

 

That's a nice story.  You dont know that all or some or none of the players did not cooperate.

 

Yeah, I have to say that I'm not bothered when people don't help the police during the course of an investigation, since even innocent people should zip their lips and not say a damned word unless it's on the advice of counsel. It's not indicative of guilt or innocence and has nothing to do with anything, really.

@GratefulFlyers

For fun, I went to NHL Edge and I looked at the top 10 in each of: fastest max speed, most speed bursts 22+ mph, and speed burst 20-22 mph. Placing 1st in a category gives you 10 points, 2nd gives you nine, 3rd gives you eight and so on. Some of these guys play a lot more than other, so I took their ice time and expressed it in the number of speed points gained per 60 minutes of play. Here is every player with 1+ SpeedPts/60 this year, which gives a general look at the fastest skaters in the NHL:

1. Connor McDavid, 1.56

2. Brayden Point, 1.53

3. Nathan MacKinnon, 1.49

4. Owen Tippett, 1.23

5. Roope Hintz, 1.05

6. Ryan McLeod, 1.04

Of course, this doesn't tell us which players are more agile than others, who can stickhandle at speed, who has the quickest first steps, have better lateral movement, who skates better/faster backwards, edgework, etc, etc, etc.

Either way, Owen Tippett is very fast.

7 hours ago, flyerrod said:

Due to the length of time from the original investigation. I am not saying the original investigation was done correctly but why did it take 4 or 5 years to correct it?

I'm not sure how long the average rape case takes to investigate. My guess is that they're almost always shorter than this one, but this is also not your average investigation. For what it's worth, the RCMP, in a review of their cases from 2015 to 2017, found "consistent deficiencies in how they were handled". Over 300 of the investigations went from a status of requiring no further action to being re-opened, with about 3/4 of them resulting in charges being laid.

It also turns out that the London Police Service has one of the highest rates of sexual assaults claims being labelled as "unfounded"; when investigators find no reason to further their investigation. The national average of local and provincial police services and the RCMP is 19%. In London, it's 34%.

As part of an article looking into why cases can be labelled as unfounded, The Globe & Mail requested copies of case files, excluding any identifying information, from cases which were closed. Here is a screenshot of what the London Police Service (34% unfounded) and Windsor (3% unfounded) provided:

The London Police redacted literally everything other than their letterhead, while the Windsor Police provided all of the requested information. Infer from that what you will, but I take a fairly dim view of the investigative process in London, Ontario.

The Department of Justice and BC Ministries of Community and Public Safety conducted a joint study of sexual assault claims of cases covering a two year period, and found that many cases were scarcely investigated at all past the stage of conducting the initial interview with the claimant, and in many instances, they didn't even interview the suspect who had been named. In the case of a 13-year old girl who reported being raped and turned out to be pregnant, the police didn't even speak to man she accused or perform a DNA test on the baby.

There's a very good reason that investigations often don't progress very far: the people conducting the study sat-in on police training courses, and it turned out the majority of the training was not about how to investigates sex crimes, but about how to spot false allegations. "You really have to be watching for body language. Is she too upset? Is she upset enough? Is she angry? Is she trying to get even with a boyfriend? Is she looking for attention?" The classes were taught by police officers and not experts with training in areas of trauma or victim behaviour, who all point out that these questions have no bearing on whether or not a person was victimized.

There are a lot of very valid reasons that the London Police Service took years to get to this point, and it says a lot more about poor police training and investigation than it does about making me suspicious of the woman.

7 hours ago, flyerrod said:

So many of these accusations are strictly a money grab. Trevor Bauer(sp?) really stands out. He was hung out to dry before anything was investigated and turns out they were totally fabricated charges. He is still screwed out of millions despite being totally cleared of all allegations. I do not want to see guilty people go free either but boy is the timing questionable at best.

Why is the timing questionable? The length of the investigation?

1 hour ago, Lunatic said:

I am repulsed by the supposed actions of these players. I still have to ask, not knowing  Canadian law, but doesn't double jeopardy apply here? 

Canadians, like people in the US, are protected against the state re-trying you for the same crime, as stated in Provision 11h of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms:

Quote

 

Any person charged with an offence has the right:

 

if finally acquitted of the offence, not to be tried for it again and, if finally found guilty and punished for the offence, not to be tried or punished for it again;

 

None of the players have yet been charged, let alone tried yet, so that Provision doesn't come in to play at this time.

1 hour ago, GratefulFlyers said:

The problem with the term is without it you don’t get the $6.2 AAV. 

(pardon me if someone already pointed that out I might’ve missed it)

 

Do Flyers’ fans like Tippett as much if he’s closer to $8mil/season? Fewer years but less easily tradeable I think.

That's exactly it. When you're buying UFA years, the team will pay either in term OR AAV. Not to go there, but since he was brought up before, in the case of Voracek, Hextall ended up paying for BOTH! With Tippett's, I think that Briere struck a good balance. The last few years don't have a NMC, and the caphit is easier to take with each years that goes by.

As per the title, you can't really argue with what's happened since Kris Knoblauch and Paul Coffey took over the team, and at 31 games, we're well past the dead coach bounce.

Oilers under Jay Woodcroft

Record: 3-9-1,  Pts: 7 (31st), PTS%:

GF/GP: 26th, 30th, Differential: 31st

PP: 9th, PK: 30th

Oilers under Kris Knoblauch

Record: 25-6-0, Pts: 50 (2nd to COL, who have 1 more point and have played 5 more games), PTS%: 1st

GF/GP: 3rd, GA/GP: 2ND, Differential: 1st

PP: 4th, PK: 1st

Kris Noblauch

-Moved the lineup away from the 11 forward/7 defense lineup of Woodcroft. Jay's lineup meant that McDavid and Draisaitl played too many minutes at the expense of depth players, who sat around for long stretches and were cold by the time they got in. Having 7 defensemen also meant #7 (often Philip Broberg) sitting around for long stretches, and by the time he saw ice, he was almost paralyzed by fear of making a mistake and not getting another shift, and he was mostly reactive instead of proactive.

-Going back to the 12/6 came along with McDavid being taken off the penalty kill. Knoblauch has talked about the importance for every player on the roster to have an opportunity to impact the game each night, and those players have responded, with a huge swing on the PK, going from 30th to 1st since Nov 13th. Team chemistry improved tremendously.

-He looked at his forwards and identified a group whose defensive instincts weren't nearly as pronounced as their offensive awareness. He changed them from man-to-man coverage to zone. There's nothing wrong with man-to-man, but it does require players with strong defensive tendencies, and that isn't this core group of forwards' game. Knoblauch instituted changes in the team's defensive structure, going from this DZ system, with MILES of open ice in the middle:

to an easy-to-play Box+1 shown in this short clip:

He also changed their neutral zone setup from a 2-1-2, which allowed a lot of space and speed to the opposition, to a 1-2-2. The result is the group denying entry and space much more often, as shown in this short clip:

Paul Coffey

-Told his defensemen to prioritize making plays and passes rather hard-rims and off-the-glass-and-out. Even when you're tired, don't just dump it out.

-Didn't think the defensemen were communicating very well, so had them sit together in the dressing room. The result has been them, as a group, talking shop constantly, talking about ways to improve, coming up with non-verbal ways to communicate. Matthias Ekholm, product of a noted defense factory in Nashvhille, said that the Preds always did the same thing and found it to be extremely beneficial.

TLDR - They're not doing it with blowouts, or riding a hot PP, or with any smoke and mirrors. The team stopped trying to be the smartest guys in the room, and have instead settled for traditional defending and chance against reduction. They will go through tough times again this season, and face struggle, but they're playing a system which is easy to play and reproduce, and has brought strong results.

-Forgive the typos. I never was much of an editor.

4 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Voracek also wasn't a point per game player. He was a 4 in 5 player. 20-22 goals. 60-65 points on average.

lol... Well, I know.

It only came up because you mentioned that he did it twice, to which I noted that doing it back then meant you were one of the top 10 scorers in the league, compared to today, where you're around 50th. I don't want to do more than part in making a thread about Tippett's contract all about Jakub Voracek, so I apologize for my part in it, and will end my part in it.

16 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Poehling had his shot with his draft team. He was taken two spots ahead of Morgan Frost.

 

Frost had injury issues which delayed his development, but he'll be off being someone else's Poehling if he doesn't step up.

 

I don't mind Poehling as a 3/4 but they need better in the top 6.

Right. I like Ryan Poehling, but if he's getting a lot of minutes in your top 6, you're in trouble.

33 minutes ago, radoran said:

Right, I'm talking about the contract. And his career doesn't match it.

Agreed. He was paid like he was an elite player and he wasn't one.

33 minutes ago, radoran said:

He was an above average NHL player. To your earlier point about a point per game being 50th, there are literally dozens of players like him.

That wasn't my point about being a PPG player. When Jake did it, there was a far smaller group of players doing it; offense was a lot lower. What he did is more impressive than being a PPG player today. For his part, Tippett is 144th in points-per-game. He's not nearly as good.

Thankfully, he's being paid less.

12 minutes ago, GratefulFlyers said:

 

Good point, I forgot to take that into account. Howden and Poehling aren't going against top lines...

 

re: the graph I admit CorsiThis CorsiThat is a blur to me but one thing I noticed - Poehling's CF%, Elite vs Middle shows a 5% difference. Doesn't seem like a lot but I don't know. As for GRITENSITY... c'mon that can't be a thing lol.

5% is quite a bit. "GRITENSITY" is this site's name for the bottom 1/3 of the roster. Nicer than saying "grinders", I suppose.   lol

12 minutes ago, GratefulFlyers said:

Seriously I realize advanced metrics are valuable but imho they'll never take the place of the eye test. Thanks for showing me why my eye test in this case was flawed. I'd still like to see Poehling get a long look against Top 6 forwards but maybe it's not as necessary as I thought.

 

I like a marriage of the eye test and the numbers, because both can tell us a lot and both can be deceiving, and both require context. Being overly reliant on any approach will leave you blind to the possibilities presented by the other. Some people will tell you that the numbers mean nothing, but that debate is over: every team has an analytics department, and has for years.

@GratefulFlyers What I usually remind myself, when I'm excited about depth players, is that part of the reason they can look good is because the coach has them slotted properly in the batting order. When thrown into deeper waters, they usually struggle.

Thanks to PuckIQ, we can how players fare against different levels of competition. For Poehling this year:

I think that Torts is likely using him correctly.

4 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Yeah, 5th.

 

Once.

 

And, again, never scored 25. This isn't Henrik Sedin we're talking about.

 

I don't want to defend the contract, because Hextall flat-out over-paid Voracek, but he produced for a long time and had a really good career.

I like the contract that Tippett signed, and I think he can provide suitable value for at least five years. I would also be stunned if his list of comps is anything approaching this group.

Oof. Two quick ones.

Looks like it hit Seeler's knee on the way in.

Everytime I see him, I come away with the same impression: really good PKer, good skater. Comes up short on skill but not effort. I think a good comparable both in terms of salary and on-ice is Brett Howden.

Briere kept him at a fair contract.

So, I'm pretty much in line with others around here. The salary is more than fair, but I think the term runs about three years too long. He provides a combination of high level offense and abysmal defense, but it's much harder to find guys to put the puck in the net than anything else. Generally speaking, I'm usually a bit leery of when guys find a big bump in their scoring, but he's not being zoomed by a high shooting percentage, so it seems repeatable to me. If he loses his wheels before the contract ends, it won't be pretty out there.

@jammer2 I'm not sure if I agree with the article comparing Owen Tippett and Nugent-Hopkins. I understand that they're not comparing stylistically speaking, but rather in terms of production. Offense has gone up a fair bit since RNH was Tippett's age. That year, he was 73rd in points-per-game and +10 on a team that gave up more than they scored. Tippett is 117th in points-per-game and-3 on a team with a positive goal differential.