vis

Just now, AJgoal said:

 

Yeah, the 35% rule is for frontloaded contracts. Backloaded contracts can't have an increase greater than the lowest value of the first few years. I don't remember the exact rule, but that's basically it.

Thanks.

14 minutes ago, AJgoal said:

Yes, but it's just $10 million, as he makes over 660 thousand, which is the 110% threshold. So if he doesn't like where negotiations are going, he just signs the QO and walks to UFA.

 

Gotcha.  I just edited my post above to further explain my thinking, but disregard.  

I think Konecny is eligible for UFA one year before Meier because he played 40+ games in his first year, whereas Meier did not.  If that's correct, then wouldn't the equivalent be to give Konency a three year deal with a big salary in year three?  I kind of proposed that above as well: $13.5m/3yr for a $4.5AAV at $3.4m in year 1, $4.3m in year 2, and $5.8m in year 3.  I was working on the assumption that salary couldn't vary by more than 35%, but maybe that wouldn't apply in that structure since salary increases over the life.  Haven't looked at the CBA on that front in a while.

1 hour ago, mojo1917 said:

Thing is, Konecny is ready now, today. He's reached the part of his career where traditionally if it's going to take-off in an upward production trajectory, we see it happen this season.  

I hear you.  I mentioned young guys coming up because the Flyers can always waive that around as a threat.  Do I think they'd mov on from Konecny?  Not unless he became a problem child.  But I don't think Konecny can blow off the fact they they got some talented kids coming up.

1 hour ago, mojo1917 said:

Also vis, it's not a super complex concept; but your explanation of "buying UFA years" was helpful for me to understand why there are the hang ups with these 22 yr old RFAs.- so thanks ! 

Happy to help, but I'm mostly talking out of my ass.  So take it for what it's worth.

1 hour ago, AJgoal said:

Meier actually got a 5 year, $34 million dollar contract that walks him to UFA once you account for the $10 million salary in the last year. 

Not sure what you mean.  Because he'd have to be qualified at $10m (actually $11m)?  I think I see what you're saying.  If you assume Meier gets qualified at $11m and he accepts, he ends up with a 5 year deal with an AAV of $7m.

Why doesn't Meier's deal violate the salary variation rule?

1 hour ago, AJgoal said:

You should end up splitting the difference between those deals on a short term AAV, which would be about 4.7 million.

See above: 

1 hour ago, vis said:

Part of me thinks a three year deal makes sense at, say, $13.5m for a $4.5AAV.

1 hour ago, AJgoal said:

If you're going to 5.3, I'd want at least another year.

I don't know.  @OccamsRazor raised a good point about Timo Meier's deal.  He got $24m/4 years and he's still RFA at the end.  Didn't buy a single UFA year.  Seems like a decent comp for Konecny production-wise, but Meier is a better all-around player.

Term is an issue.  The Flyers have a few talented forwards in the system that could be vying for top 6 spots in the next 2-3 years, if not sooner.  Konecny is likely to be eligible for UFA status in four more seasons.  The CBA expires in three years, so the possibility of a stoppage looms. 

Part of me thinks a three year deal makes sense at, say, $13.5m for a $4.5AAV.  You're not buying any UFA years in that deal, so the cap hit should be lower.  However, not sure how I'd structure if from the player's side.  On one hand, I can see front-loading it so he gets a bunch of $$ up front so that he's got some security in case of a stoppage in the third year (maybe $6m, $4.5m, $3m).  I could also see him wanting it structured like Werenski's deal at $3.4m, $4.3m, $5.8m.  If the CBA remains in place with current rules, the Flyers would have to qualify him at $6.38m.

If you want to buy UFA years, I think somewhere around $20-22m/4 years, $28-30m/5 years or $36-40m/6 years might make sense.  I just don't know if they are willing to commit to him long term.

1 hour ago, brelic said:

Just read Meltzer's latest blog and he says Patrick is not in camp due to a UBI. Has not been cleared to be on the ice? 

 

Any one hear anything about his injury?

49 minutes ago, AJgoal said:

Word is it's a surprise, because he's been out on the ice leading up to camp. 

12 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

What are you kidding me this kid is already hurt.........again before camp even begins good lawd this guy.

Wtf is up with this?  ****** Patrick....

Is he stressed because his buttbuddy Konecny isn't signed?

1 hour ago, AJgoal said:

I'm a bit surprised, based on the Morrissey and Werenski deals, I'd have thought it would come in a bit lower. Good deal, though. 

Morrissey is a couple of years older.  Also, not sure it makes much of a difference, but his is an extension deal and kicks in next year.  Plus, Ivan is clearly the Flyers' #1 dman and a potential Norris candidate.  Yeah, he had a bad year last year, but I think that was an anomaly.  Not sure Morrissey projects as well as Provorov projects.

Werenski's deal is weird.  Yeah, they got him for a $5m cap hit for the next three years, but that will jump to at least $7.7 million thereafter.  I'm cool knowing that Provorov is locked up at a good rate.

Great deal.  And a good job by Fletcher.  Werenski contract have him a hand here, but good to get it done.

I've been saying for a while that things are going to get messy with Konecny.  The prior regime wasn't in love with his game.  I thought Fletcher might bring a different perspective, but it seems they are still at odds.  Really disappointed he's not there on the first day of camp.  

23 minutes ago, King Knut said:

TK on the PK could use his speed to shut down a lot of passing lanes and turn a bunch of pucks the other way.  

Yeah, I'd love to see them increase the speed on the PK.  He'd be a tremendous threat for SHG as well.  His defensive zone awareness ain't the greatest though.

57 minutes ago, brelic said:

 

What's with the weird salary drop in Y3?

 

Might be guaranteed money in case of a lockout.

2 hours ago, King Knut said:

I still want to know exactly what tactic Hextall used to get Simmer, Coots and Ghost and Coots to sign their team friendly deals and if it was the same thing TO just pulled in Johnson and Kapanen. 

No idea.  Simmonds was Holmgren, I think, but Hextall was there as AGM.  Couturier was signed before he broke out offensively, so I kind of get that.  Ghost was a very good deal.

Mark this off-season down as the point at which a sea change occurred with respect to the approach to high-profile RFAs.  Suspect we are going to see more of these types of "bridge" deals with a big kicker in the final RFA year to set the stage for a substantial salary increase via qualifying offer, arbitration or UFA.  It's an interesting structure.  Wonder if we are going to see more arbitration hearings down the line as a result.  Given that there have been similar rumblings with Marner's deal, sure as **** agents have gotten together on this strategy and are trying to implement it on a wide-scale basis.  Teams are probably reluctant to accept the change (perhaps due in large part to inertia), but will come around.  Werenski was the first domino to fall.  Perhaps a new norm.

2 hours ago, brelic said:

Unrelated but interesting tidbit I saw this morning: the player drafted right before Provorov - Pavel Zacha - has signed in the KHL. 

Wow.  Shero can't be happy about that.  Devils don't need him anyway.  He's been a disappointment.

Nevermind.  My question was answered in a subsequent post.

I should know to RTFF.

On 8/30/2019 at 6:22 PM, brelic said:

 

I think TK will be signed in time for camp, but not so sure about Provy. 

 

Doesn’t camp start like next week?

 

Think so.  Finally.

I wonder if these guys have fully baked deals locked and loaded and ready to be signed by a drop-dead date, e.g., September 13.

33 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

I'm not worried till they start missing camp time.

Same, but I am doubtful it comes to that.

5 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

I wonder if the Timo Meier deal he signed could be holding up the TK deal.

 

Maybe.  But Meier put up 30G and 65+ points this past season.  Konecny hasn't topped 25 or 50.  Konecny has been more consistently productive over the years.  My sense is Meier is better all around, but maybe I'm wrong about that.  His fancy stats are better than Konecny's.  

On 8/23/2019 at 10:49 AM, intheslot said:

Speaking to Russian sports outlet Sport Express, veteran hockey agent Mark Gandler indirectly denied a report from Columbus Dispatch writer Brian Hedger that he had made a salary cap ask of $10 million for his unsigned restricted free agent client Ivan Provorov. Gandler said to Sport Express writer Mikhail Zislis (via a Google Translate version of the Russian article), "As for Ivan Provorov, I will tell you this: I do not even want to comment on the delusional statements and rumors from the press and what is written on the Internet. I do not see any point in this. I can say that the general manager [Chuck Fletcher] and I know the whole truth."

Worth quoting again.  

Think these guys are closer than we all think.  I don't know what's taking Werenski and McAvoy so long to get done, but that's the hold up.  I suppose Marner is holding up everything for nearly all RFAs.  As fans, it's frustrating being in the dark.  But I suspect the GMs and agents have some sort of plan worked out to get players signed once the "market setters" come to terms or perhaps they have established a "drop dead date" by when their players will sign a contract, even if the "market setters" have not.

1 hour ago, brelic said:

 

Could be used as a chip to get Hoffman

I've seen some chatter.  Is that realistic?  Any concern that this would be his 3rd team (or, technically 4th) in a short period of time?  He had all that drama in Ottawa.  Why is Florida interested in moving him?

3 hours ago, mojo1917 said:

There's no news on the team and these guys are paid to create content;  So I understand, however...

Exactly.

It does suck that Morin is caught in a numbers game right now.  Doubtful he makes it through waivers, so he's stuck as a 7 or 8 on the Flyers and probably won't play that much.  I could see him (or Hagg or Ghost) getting moved for a piece that makes them stronger elsewhere, but I really rather they not move him.  I could also see them moving him if they feel he's being blocked here and want to do him a solid and move him to a team that has a spot for him.  

On 8/9/2019 at 5:33 PM, radoran said:

That said, wouldn't surprise me if they have a handshake deal with Konecny pending Provorov. I don't think it would be vice-versa. Announce them both at the same time. "Locking up the future" press conference yadda yadda.

Yeah, that's kind of what I think.

1 hour ago, radoran said:

As for comps to Konecny, what do you give your young star winger with two less points and five more goals than your $7.1M 27-year-old center has over the past two seasons?

Considering Konecny is an RFA with no arbitration rights, pretty much whatever you want...

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

 

I expect things to heat up as camp approaches.  No one thinks TK is on par with Point or Marner right now and those guys can likely get away with missing camp... or at least what that will cost the team will be worth it in exchange for locking them in long term.

Yeah, the dam is going to have to break for the lower tier guys like TK.  I feel like there already are some good comps out there for him.  How many more do they need?  Or maybe the holdup for TK is Provorov's deal getting done? 

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

 

Thinking about it, maybe McAvoy and Provo's agents are waiting on Werenski because they know the Jackets will likely have to pay more for him (they have cap space and no one wants to actually play in that town).  At the same time, Werenski might be waiting it out hoping for a trade or an offer sheet.  

Yeah.  Not sure how McAvoy fits into all this.  I'm not sure the Bruins can give him a long term deal.  Though, I suppose it makes sense for him to wait to see what Werenski does because it's still a data point, even if Werenski's deal is long term.  What is holding up Werenski, though?

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

Anyone want to send JVR & Ghost to Columbus for Werenski?  that's a joke.  mostly. 

Agree Columbus would think that's a joke.

15 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

he made these things called "hearty fries" which was meat and sauce, whiz if you wanted over french fries...

This sounds amazing.  Sadly, I'm at a point where I can't enjoy the good stuff like this as often.  Metabolism isn't near what it used to be and only slowing down more.  Couple that with decreasing (to almost no-existent) exercise, and I just can't eat like I used to.  Pretty much cut fries out altogether.