Blog - Internet $60 million cap? Here are 10 teams that could be in trouble

[Irishjim]

Jason Brough

Dec 11, 2012, 12:27 PM EST

The NHL has reportedly proposed a salary cap of $60 million for the 2013-14 season. If that’s where it ends up (down from the $70.2 million mark for 2012-13) and there are no amnesty buyouts, scalpels will need to be taken to a number of rosters.

Here are 10 teams that may need serious surgery (numbers via CapGeek.com):

Vancouver Canucks ($55.4 million, 13): They won’t have Roberto Luongo’s $5.3 million hit, but signing Alex Edler could be interesting. Keith Ballard and David Booth, two Mike Gillis acquisitions, stand out in the underachiever category.

Montreal Canadiens ($60.2 million, 16): And PK Subban still doesn’t have a contract. Habs fans don’t need to be told that Scott Gomez and Tomas Kaberle account for more than $11 million of cap space.

Philadelphia Flyers ($57.5 million, 16): Will get some relief if Chris Pronger remains on IR, but then they won’t have Pronger. Bit of a double-edged sword there.

Boston Bruins ($57.4 million, 16 players): Marc Savard will likely remain on LTIR, but Tuukka Rask is a pending RFA.

Tampa Bay Lightning ($57.4 million, 15): Vincent LeCavalier, signed through 2019-20 with a $7.7 million cap hit. Not getting any younger either. Turned 32 in April.

Pittsburgh Penguins ($52.6 million, 15): Fortunately Evgeni Malkin isn’t UFA until 2014-15.

San Jose Sharks ($54.3 million, 14): Patrick Marleau’s $6.9 million hit stands out. It’s not like there haven’t been trade rumors.

Chicago Blackhawks ($57.2 million, 17): If Corey Crawford doesn’t bounce back, upgrading the goaltending could be a challenge.

Minnesota Wild ($51.1 million, 16): Dany Heatley is signed through 2013-14 for a $7.5 million hit. Any takers?

Los Angeles Kings ($49.4 million, 13): Most of their key guys are locked up, though Rob Scuderi may have to move on.

We can’t help but think there will be some sort of amnesty provision put into place that will soften the transition, but it won’t alleviate the pain altogether.

[radoran]

with all due respect - and I do mean that - without knowing:

a) cap level

b) buyouts/amnesty

c) LTIR application

d) rollbacks

All of this is really putting the cart before the horse.

[Irishjim]

with all due respect - and I do mean that - without knowing:

a) cap level

b) buyouts/amnesty

c) LTIR application

d) rollbacks

All of this is really putting the cart before the horse.

this is just a speculation article not fact, based on earlier reports of a much lower cap than the current 70.2. also the article does mention that amnesty/buyouts are not considered in these numbers since neither exist at the moment

so if a new CBA is agreed on and the 3 things that change are revenue sharing, lowered salary cap and limits on contract lengths these numbers hold water

[radoran]

this is just a speculation article not fact, based on earlier reports of a much lower cap than the current 70.2. also the article does mention that amnesty/buyouts are not considered in these numbers since neither exist at the moment

so if a new CBA is agreed on and the 3 things that change are revenue sharing, lowered salary cap and limits on contract lengths these numbers hold water

They certainly hold water. If there is any sort of significant reduction, then it is the high spending and high revenue teams that will be hit the hardest.

Which boggles my mind that they are on board with this nonsense, but I digest.

Those are just three gigantic "ifs" to be playing around with at this point. And the article does assume LTIR will be handled the same or at least similarly.

I'm hard pressed to be worried about 2013-14 potentials when 2012-13 is being lost.

That said, MY worry.in THAT situation is Giroux in 2014-15, the large nmber of teams who Really Don't Like the Flyers and the possibility that Snider is tying his own hands in being able to "match any offer."

But those bridges are to be crossed after the one that's being washed out from under us.

[hf101]

We can’t help but think there will be some sort of amnesty provision put into place that will soften the transition, but it won’t alleviate the pain altogether.

I really like the suggestion Meltzer made in his blog. And that is that all of the contracts are recalculated for a new cap hit of the existing amount of money that is owed to the players. Depending on the contracts some cap hits will be more but many of the deals that payed a large amount upfront will have lower cap hits once the new CBA begins.

Some Flyers' examples:

* Kimmo Timonen is in the final season of the six-year contract he signed in the summer of 2007. The deal currently has a cap hit of $6.33 million but the actual salary he was due in 2012-13 (pre-lockout) was $3 million. So reduce his remaining cap hit accordingly to $3 million.

* Danny Briere has three seasons left on the deal he signed in 2007. The real-dollar value remaining is $12 million ($7 million pre-lockout in 2012-13, $3 million in 2013-14 and $2 million in 2014-15). His current cap hit is $6.5 million. However, if only the remainder were calculated, his cap hit would be reduced to $4 million.

* The Flyers have already paid Ilya Bryzgalov $15 million worth of his nine-year, $51 million contract in the form of a real-dollar salary last season of $10 million plus a $5 million signing bonus. Since amnesty appears unlikely to be part of the next CBA, the NHL can at least credit what has already been paid toward Bryzgalov's remaining cap hit and reduce his cap hit from $5.67 million to $4.5 million.

By using this cap-hit recalculation method, not ALL players would see their cap hits decrease. Some would go up.

For example, Andrej Meszaros currently has a $4 million cap hit but $4.75 million and $5.5 million of actual salary in 2012-13 and 2013-14. So his cap hit would go up to $5.125 million. Most of the players who would be in the situation of an increased cap hits are players in their 20s who signed multi-year deals after their entry-level deals expired.

[canoli]

why does it say - for the Canucks - "they won't have Roberto Luongo's $5.3 million hit"?

as far as I know he's still a Canuck, locked up till 2019 i think. Did I miss something or forget it altogether - did Luongo get traded?

[hf101]

@canoli

You are correct Luongo hasn't been traded. There has been some chatter that Luongo will be traded to the Leafs as soon as the CBA is signed. But I dunno, with that contract I'm not sure how it is a given. If you were to take Luongo's remaining money and years owed to him under Meltzer's proposal he would have a cap hit of 4.728M cap hit for the next 10 seasons

[canoli]

Oh okay good, thanks - I didn't think I was that out of touch. I've read the rumors concerning RL - but I've probably read just as many "here's why the Leafs won't go after RL" stories too. It'll be interesting to see where he ends up - like you say it's hard to see how a trade is "a given" considering that contract.

[radoran]

Wouldn't the lower cap hit basically reward teams that had rigged the system under the old CBA?

Yes, works great for the Flyers. How it affects the entire league is something else entirely.