Top 5 Oilers, round 2

[JR Ewing]

HF fan voting of the Oilers top 5 players... So far:

 

1. Taylor Hall

 

 

We move on to #2.

 

NOTE - This isn't asking who you think will be better players, or who are the best prospects, but who are the best Oilers players right now.

[JR Ewing]

I pretty much have no choice but to go with Jordan Eberle, but I think that Hopkins is really close as an overall player (it was mostly missed that in the course of one off-season, he became glorious in all three zones). However... He's injured, and Eberle continues to produce.

 

JR

[yave1964]

I went with Eberle, toiling in Edmonton, under the radar while all around him first picks in the draft forwards keep getting plugged in and Eberle just goes about his business looking like a player ready to break out as a superstar at 23 years old. The other kids have ifs attached to them, Eberle is already there.

[hf101]

My first choice off the top of my head for the Best #2 Oiler would be Eberle, but apparently Gagner will be named the next Oilers captain.  Captains aren't necessarily the "best" players as far as points scored for a team but leadership also plays a role.  Hmmmm.  now I'm talking myself into choosing Gagner. 

 

Ok JR.  Why should I choose Eberle over Gagner?

[JR Ewing]

For things like this, I've always used a checklist of little points. The list has changed over the years as more tools have become available, but the core of it has been mostly the same for about 25 years.

1. Which player is the better goal scorer?
Eberle: 1.183 G/60
Gagner: 0.573

Big advantage for Eberle here.

Eberle 1, Gagner 0

2. Which player is the better playmaker?
Eberle: 1.342 A/60
Gagner: 1.201 A/60

Eberle has the edge in playmaking.

Eberle 2, Gagner 0

3. Which player is better at ES?
Probably the best way to compare them would be to see how much the puck is moving in the right direction while they're on the ice. This is a no contest for Eberle:

Eberle: 12.0 CorsiRel
Gagner: 4.4 CorsiRel

Eberle 3, Gagner 0

4. Which player is better on the PP?
Again, this is straight-forward:

Eberle: 4.041 Pts/60
Gagner: 3.887 Pts/60

Eberle gets the nod here again.

Eberle 4, Gagner 0

5. Which player is better on the PK?
A nice way to measure this would be to see how each player did compared to his teammates, while short-handed.

Eberle: 4.736 SHGA/20 Min. Teammates: 2.197 SHGA/20 Min. -2.539
Gagner: 1.945 SHGA/20 Min. Teammates: 2.254 SHGA/20 Min. +0.309

This one goes for Samwise.

Eberle 4, Gagner 1

6. Which player is bigger and stronger?
Gagner and Eberle are the same height, but Gagner is 199 lbs to Eberle's 184.

Eberle 4, Gagner 2

7. Which player is more physical?
For what it's worth, Eberle has been credited with more hits than Gagner every year they've played.


Final score: Eberle 5, Gagner 2

JR
 

[hf101]

@JR Ewing

 

Thanks for the stats,  However up until last year Eberle played first line minutes where Gagner didn't.  I  think in this case you really can't compare career stats.

 

Thus Last year: Gagner had more assists, points, hits, blocked shots, pp points, short handed points than Eberle.

Give the leadership point to Gagner as well.

 

My vote still stands for Gagner.

[JR Ewing]

@JR Ewing

 

Thanks for the stats,  However up until last year Eberle played first line minutes where Gagner didn't.  I  think in this case you really can't compare career stats.

 

Thus Last year: Gagner had more assists, points, hits, blocked shots, pp points, short handed points than Eberle.

Give the leadership point to Gagner as well.

 

My vote still stands for Gagner.

 

Career stats: well, the stats I used were rate stats (per 60, per 20, etc) so they're pretty applicable here, and don't punish or reward either player for the length of their career so far.

 

Last year:

-Gagner ended up with one more point with 20 more minutes played. Statistically, that's completely insignificant.

-If we take a look under the hood, at the deeper numbers, Gagner's line ended up being outplayed quite a bit at evens, so Sam ended up with a CorsiRel of -4 to Eberle's +22. In other words, the pucked moved the wrong too much for Gagner last year. NOW... There's some very good evidence which shows that coaching tactics played a role in this, so we'll have to see how it turns out from here.

-Hits: I always have a hard time with this one as a point in one guy's favor. On one hand, it can indicate a more physical player. On the other hand, it also indicates that you didn't have the puck (thus the reason the Red Wings hardly ever get many hits credited to them: they always have the puck). In this case, we're talking about a pair of guys who play an offensive possession game, of course. But even then: what's the value of a hit? Are they necessary to be a good player? Is one player who had 25 more hits than another player better at hockey? In and of itself, it's not tremendously indicative. Between Gagner and Eberle, I think Gagner is more aggressive, and actually has fought when he thought somebody needed to, though that once again brings in the question of the value of such a thing. We can say that there isn't a lick of statistical correlation between these things and winning, scoring, defense, etc, that's for sure.

-Block shots: mostly the same thing as above. Of course Gagner had more blocked shots. Last year's numbers tell us that he was in his own end more often, without the puck, and giving up scoring chances. Eberle would have had a tough time blocking shots in the offensive zone. But again, back to a philosophical question: how important is shot blocking? Would you rather have a player who keeps the puck in the offensive zone more often than spends time in his own end, with the opposition controlling the puck? Do teams which block a lot of shots give up fewer goals? (they don't, btw).

 

Anyway, I'm not trying to get you to change your vote, but one of these two players is 13th in the NHL in Points/60 the last three years, and he other is 110th. I'll let you guess who is who here.

 

I think Gagner is a *very* good young center, and don't get the near-constant talk from Edmonton folks about running him out of town. Dumb fans I guess; hockey has more of them than most sports. I just don't think he's as good a player, and I bet you 30 GMs would take Eberle over Gagner, too.

 

JR

[jammer2]

  I went Eberle, I expected a bit more from him last year, but even though he has not peaked, he's still a talented player in his own right. I expect a huge break out year for him and Hall, 70 pts for Eberle is not out of the question, and Hall could very well get 80+ and even a 40/40.

[JR Ewing]

  I went Eberle, I expected a bit more from him last year, but even though he has not peaked, he's still a talented player in his own right. I expect a huge break out year for him and Hall, 70 pts for Eberle is not out of the question, and Hall could very well get 80+ and even a 40/40.

 

Eberle had a pretty nice season in 2013, but was extremely unlikely to do what he did in 2012: his 34 goals that year were built more than a little bit on an unsustainable shooting percentage of 19%. Wasn't going to do that two seasons in a row. That's the type of guy he'll be, I think: when things go right, he'll be in that 35ish goal range, otherwise, usually it will be in the 25-30 range.

 

JR

[jammer2]

Eberle had a pretty nice season in 2013, but was extremely unlikely to do what he did in 2012: his 34 goals that year were built more than a little bit on an unsustainable shooting percentage of 19%. Wasn't going to do that two seasons in a row. That's the type of guy he'll be, I think: when things go right, he'll be in that 35ish goal range, otherwise, usually it will be in the 25-30 range.

 

JR

 

 Sounds right around where I would say also. Do you think Hall has a legit shot at the 40/40 I'm projecting for him, I think those are pretty fair numbers for him in the coming season. He may even nudge into the 85-90 pts stratosphere if the top power play really clicks. Pretty good chance the whole top pp unit will be improved, cause none of them have peaked, all still learning, so the potential to score more is always there. A real good chance Hall, Eberle, Gagner, RNH all have career years. Those 4 are gonna rock the fantasy hockey world on some nights.

[JR Ewing]

 Sounds right around where I would say also. Do you think Hall has a legit shot at the 40/40 I'm projecting for him, I think those are pretty fair numbers for him in the coming season. He may even nudge into the 85-90 pts stratosphere if the top power play really clicks. Pretty good chance the whole top pp unit will be improved, cause none of them have peaked, all still learning, so the potential to score more is always there. A real good chance Hall, Eberle, Gagner, RNH all have career years. Those 4 are gonna rock the fantasy hockey world on some nights.

 

What you've suggested for Hall is absolutely in line with what could happen, and is right in line with how he played in 2013, when he was still recovering from shoulder surgery..

 

JR