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Flyers vs Opponents - Behind the stats of players and goalies


Guest Digityman
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First, let me say that this is going to be an ongoing spread sheet to try to compare Flyers goalies & skaters versus their opponents to try to figure out which is responsible for the result (win or loss). I haven't found anything like this so I started from scratch. I'm open to suggestions on how to better track if you have any. Please don't flame me ;)

**All of these numbers are based on the 37 games the Flyers have played in the 2011-2012 season and will be updated each week. (Last update: 1/4/2012)

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Part #1 - Let’s start off with some real basic numbers. These are just to lay the foundation as we move on.

Starting Goalies Average Save Percentage:

NHL Average – 0.913

Flyers – 0.886

Opponent – 0.875

Flyers starting goalie has a higher average save percentage than the opponent’s average.

Shots For / Shots Against per game:

NHL Average = 29.9

Flyers Shots Against Opponents – 31.5

Opponent Shots Against Flyers – 28.5

Flyers as a team have more shots than the average while giving up less than the average

Goals For / Goals Against per game:

NHL Average: 2.73

Flyers: 3.38

Opponent: 2.89

The Flyers score more goals than the average but also let in more than the average.

Part #1 Result - Pretty straight forward. Most teams with a decent winning record will have similar numbers.

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Part #2 - Let’s dig a little deeper by comparing how the goalie played vs how the skaters played. To do this we needed to pull 3 stats for each position.

Goalies

1) If the Flyers starter has a better Save % than the opponents starter – 1 Point

2) If the Flyers starter has a better Save % than the league average – 1 Point

3) If the Flyers starter let in less than the league average goals against per game – 1 Point

Skaters

1) If the skaters score more than the league average goals per game – 1 Point

2) If the skaters allow less than the league average shots against per game – 1 Point

3) If the skaters shoot more than the league average shots for per game – 1 point

CLICK TO ENLARGE CHART

post-3-0-54906800-1325695919_thumb.png

Part #2 Result -

  1. Although statistically the Flyers' starting goalies have a higher average save percentage then the opponents starters, it is still well below the league average.
  2. The Flyers have received turbulent play from their goaltenders while the skaters have turned in fairly steady performances.
  3. Looking at the column "Goalie - Goalie played well enough to win" you can see that during the 7 game winning streak the goalies only had a -3 (red) in the game against the Ducks. The skaters won that game despite the goal tending.

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Part #3 - Taking part #2 and comparing the Flyers goalie & skaters to the opponents goalie & skaters with the same ranking system. This will determine whether or not the opponent's goalie's are winning or losing more games for their team.

(Part #3 is still in process)

Part #3 Result -

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Part # 4 - Determining how many points the Flyers gained or lost based on the play of their starting goalie.

(Part #4 is still in process)

Part #4 Result -

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Please make any suggestions for other comparisons / stats.

***Opponent = The Flyer’s opponent’s averages not the NHL averages which shines a light on the Flyers games only.

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@Digityman

What you've surfaced so far is true: the Flyers are very good at scoring goals and pretty good at preventing them as well, despite poor goaltending from their (former?) starter.

What it fails to capture is the fact that the Flyers have become a one dimensional team in terms of scoring. They are going to be a lot easier to shut down in the playoffs if this doesn't change. So perhaps another measure of a team's "health" lies in how scoring is distributed among individuals and by forward/defense. If scoring is well distributed, that's a positive sign.

Special teams is another obvious area to highlight statistically. Look forward to seeing what else you come up with.

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@Digityman

What you've surfaced so far is true: the Flyers are very good at scoring goals and pretty good at preventing them as well, despite poor goaltending from their (former?) starter.

What it fails to capture is the fact that the Flyers have become a one dimensional team in terms of scoring. They are going to be a lot easier to shut down in the playoffs if this doesn't change. So perhaps another measure of a team's "health" lies in how scoring is distributed among individuals and by forward/defense. If scoring is well distributed, that's a positive sign.

Special teams is another obvious area to highlight statistically. Look forward to seeing what else you come up with.

That's a good point @terp Maybe I can incorporate that. I started off with the goalies as it's seems to be the most debated topic so far. But you do have a point.

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Great work, but I have to ask, are you:

- Single

- Unemployed

- Both

That looks like a ton of work to get going, but really telling. Of the goalie -3 scores, 10 out of 12 belonged to Bryzgalov. Ouch.

Maybe add a separate goalie sub section like (fake data for example only):

<table>

<tr>

<td><b>Goalie Scoring Analysis</b></td>

<td>-3</td>

<td>-2</td>

<td>-1</td>

<td>0</td>

<td>1</td>

<td>2</td>

<td>3</td>

</tr>

<tr>

<td>Bobrovsky</td>

<td>2</td>

<td>0</td>

<td>1</td>

<td>1</td>

<td>2</td>

<td>2</td>

<td>4</td>

</tr>

<tr>

<td>Bryzgalov</td>

<td>10</td>

<td>7</td>

<td>7</td>

<td>4</td>

<td>2</td>

<td>2</td>

<td>1</td>

</tr>

</table>

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Great work, but I have to ask, are you:

- Single

- Unemployed

- Both

That looks like a ton of work to get going, but really telling. Of the goalie -3 scores, 10 out of 12 belonged to Bryzgalov. Ouch.

Maybe add a separate goalie sub section like (fake data for example only):

Automated my 80% of my job and my wife works nights....

Good idea. I'll add it in.

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this is great work. obviously some of those stats can be misleading at times, but 38 games is a decent sample size. doom's post showing the score breakdown illustrated is even further. by your #s, bryzgalov has had a 'below average' game in 24 out of 32 games played. i still think he can turn it around, maybe with the 24/7 cameras out of the way he will focus better.

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