Good article on "the tank"

[WordsOfWisdom]

You can't eliminate that though. They're going to a bottom three lottery system but you can't stop teams from trading away talent for draft picks trying to have a future. Eliminate the percentage disparity in the bottom three if you want, but ultimately if you take the high draft pick away from the bottom teams, you will slowly reduce the number of teams in the league, and in turn greatly reduce the league's popularity.

 

I'm okay with teams trading away existing talent for draft picks, so long as they have no additional draft advantage by finishing last in the standings.  

[WordsOfWisdom]

In general, it pays to try to make your team better. In some individual cases you see teams break down everything to build from the bottom. In others, they try to "retool" rather than hit rock bottom.

 

There are also no guarantees. Which means you also have to factor in that "generational talent" like McDavid (and Eichel, etc.) simply doesn't come around often enough to make throwing the entire system away worth it. Also, that the "worst" team has a one in five chance (20%) of getting the first overall. Is that better than 13.5%? Of course. But it still means that four out of five times tanking will not get you first overall.

 

IMO, this is a "solution" in desperate search of a "problem".

 

But finishing 29th or 30th guarantees you are no lower than #2 in the draft correct? (I thought I read that somewhere.) So you're getting a future franchise player either way.

 

I still think the current draft system is broken, and it takes a generational talent like a McDavid to shine light on how broken it really is. The rest of the time the public doesn't really care.

 

I don't know why I get so passionate about the issue of tanking.    If I could make the NHL into the league I want it to be, it would have several substantial changes made to it:

 

• Flipping the draft system probabilities upside down (for the non-playoff teams) so 9th place team in each conference has best odds of #1 pick
• Changing the point system
• Switching to a luxury tax system rather than a salary cap & floor system
• etc... 

[Polaris922]

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But finishing 29th or 30th guarantees you are no lower than #2 in the draft correct? (I thought I read that somewhere.) So you're getting a future franchise player either way.

I still think the current draft system is broken, and it takes a generational talent like a McDavid to shine light on how broken it really is. The rest of the time the public doesn't really care.

I don't know why I get so passionate about the issue of tanking. If I could make the NHL into the league I want it to be, it would have several substantial changes made to it:

• Flipping the draft system probabilities upside down (for the non-playoff teams) so 9th place team in each conference has best odds of #1 pick
  
• Changing the point system
  
• Switching to a luxury tax system rather than a salary cap & floor system
  
• etc...
  

I think you're missing the point that if you flip that order decent teams or even good teams will get better, and you've destroyed any serious hopes of the crap teams ever recovering.

[radoran]

So you're getting a future franchise player either way.

 

No, you're not. Unless you think JVR (for example) is a "franchise player". Or Victor Hedman. Jordan Staal. Ryan Murray.

 

Well, OK, this year you might be, but in general you're not. Are any of the Oilers' three consecutive #1 overall picks "franchise players" at this point? "Generational talent"?

 

I don't think so.

 

If I could make the NHL into the league I want it to be, it would have several substantial changes made to it:

 

Fewer teams, lower revenue, less fan interest, perennial losers...

 

FWIW, I think the "loser point" sucks and the cap is just the best kludge that a bunch of megalomanic owners could come up with.

[WordsOfWisdom]

I think you're missing the point that if you flip that order decent teams or even good teams will get better, and you've destroyed any serious hopes of the crap teams ever recovering.

 

Let's try it and find out. I'd like the league to do a 10-year trial run and see how it goes. If what you say is true, they can always change it back. 

[Polaris922]

Let's try it and find out. I'd like the league to do a 10-year trial run and see how it goes. If what you say is true, they can always change it back.

Change back? After several franchises crash and burn.

[WordsOfWisdom]

Fewer teams, lower revenue, less fan interest, perennial losers...

 

 

You mean like the Leafs?  See! The current system doesn't work! We have perennial losers! 

 

"Fewer teams"...  Hell yes! Sign me up!

 

"Lower revenue"...  Slightly. However, expenses would diminish greatly and net income would increase.  (Revenue - Expenses = Net income or loss)

 

Florida: Revenue = almost nothing. Expenses = same payroll  as other NHL clubs. Net loss = millions of dollars.

Arizona: Revenue = almost nothing. Expenses = same payroll as other NHL clubs. Net loss = millions of dollars.

 

NHL - Florida - Arizona = Net income + millions of dollars.

 

Subtracting a loss = Adding a profit

 

 

"Less fan interest"... Can't be less than 0.  Losing a team with 0 fans = no fans lost.

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

Change back? After several franchises crash and burn.

 

LOL. I'm confident that won't happen. 

[Polaris922]

You mean like the Leafs? See! The current system doesn't work! We have perennial losers!

"Fewer teams"... Hell yes! Sign me up!

"Lower revenue"... Slightly. However, expenses would diminish greatly and net income would increase. (Revenue - Expenses = Net income or loss)

Florida: Revenue = almost nothing. Expenses = same payroll as other NHL clubs. Net loss = millions of dollars.

Arizona: Revenue = almost nothing. Expenses = same payroll as other NHL clubs. Net loss = millions of dollars.

NHL - Florida - Arizona = Net income + millions of dollars.

Subtracting a loss = Adding a profit

"Less fan interest"... Can't be less than 0. Losing a team with 0 fans = no fans lost.

Now imagine those teams without the ticket sales of guys like Ekblad, Huberdeau, and OEL... People still pay to see talented player. Florida is even close to a playoff spot.

Those franchises still being money into the NHL, even operating at a loss, thanks to NHL tv contracts and merchandising. They're economic booms for their regions and the players. If it's all about money, and it is, the current system benefits the league the most. My Penguins are the prime example of what drafting a star can do.

[WordsOfWisdom]

My Penguins are the prime example of what drafting a star can do.

 

The Penguins are an example of an NHL franchise that can't survive a losing team, because they don't have enough people like you. Despite having Mario & Jagr, and multiple Cups, the Penguins were bankrupt only 10 years later when they had a non-playoff team for the first time in franchise history and a few lean years. Fans stopped showing up. The city built the Pirates a new baseball stadium and thumbed their nose at the NHL when the Penguins wanted a new arena. All signs pointed towards the team having no future in Pittsburgh.

 

Then along comes the biggest (rigged) draft lottery of all time and Sidney "the saviour" Crosby comes in and prevents the Penguins demise. Do the Penguins survive from here on in or did Crosby simply delay the inevitable by another 10 years?

 

If the criteria for survival in Pittsburgh is "make the playoffs all the time, and have the game's best player all the time, or we don't show up", then how can any franchise survive in an environment like that? 

 

Also, if the purpose of the game's best player today is to be a white knight riding in to save floundering franchises, that means fans living in cities where people eat, breathe, and sleep hockey, will never see the game's best player. Is that a system that works for hardcore hockey fans?

 

To me, almost everything the NHL does is backwards. Completely backwards.

 

The NHL is run by Arizona, Florida, San Jose, Carolina, Anaheim, etc........ in terms of what Gary Bettman actually does.  In terms of revenue, the power brokers are Toronto, Montreal, New York, Los Angeles, Detroit, Philadelphia, etc. The game caters to the franchises that other leagues are happy to chop off and replace.

[WordsOfWisdom]

If the Leafs get McDavid in this draft, there will be some measure of justice in this world for NHL fans in Toronto and I can start being a happy person again.

[Polaris922]

The Penguins are an example of an NHL franchise that can't survive a losing team, because they don't have enough people like you. Despite having Mario & Jagr, and multiple Cups, the Penguins were bankrupt only 10 years later when they had a non-playoff team for the first time in franchise history and a few lean years. Fans stopped showing up. The city built the Pirates a new baseball stadium and thumbed their nose at the NHL when the Penguins wanted a new arena. All signs pointed towards the team having no future in Pittsburgh.

Then along comes the biggest (rigged) draft lottery of all time and Sidney "the saviour" Crosby comes in and prevents the Penguins demise. Do the Penguins survive from here on in or did Crosby simply delay the inevitable by another 10 years?

If the criteria for survival in Pittsburgh is "make the playoffs all the time, and have the game's best player all the time, or we don't show up", then how can any franchise survive in an environment like that?

Also, if the purpose of the game's best player today is to be a white knight riding in to save floundering franchises, that means fans living in cities where people eat, breathe, and sleep hockey, will never see the game's best player. Is that a system that works for hardcore hockey fans?

To me, almost everything the NHL does is backwards. Completely backwards.

The NHL is run by Arizona, Florida, San Jose, Carolina, Anaheim, etc........ in terms of what Gary Bettman actually does. In terms of revenue, the power brokers are Toronto, Montreal, New York, Los Angeles, Detroit, Philadelphia, etc. The game caters to the franchises that other leagues are happy to chop off and replace.

There's a lot of error in your post. The Pens bankruptcy actually had nothing to do with fan attendance. Was it low? Yes. Most losing franchises have to deal with that. I'd suggest researching the facts about the bankruptcy and team mismanagement before making the inaccurate leap to attendance being the issue.

And please explain to me how the Crosby draft was rigged. You haven't been here to see previous discussions, but the pens had the lowest percentage chance if winning the #1 pick overall of any team since the lottery started. Behind closed doors was a mistake, but if you think 29 other teams sat there and let that happen you're nuts.

[WordsOfWisdom]

There's a lot of error in your post. The Pens bankruptcy actually had nothing to do with fan attendance. Was it low? Yes. Most losing franchises have to deal with that. I'd suggest researching the facts about the bankruptcy and team mismanagement before making the inaccurate leap to attendance being the issue.

And please explain to me how the Crosby draft was rigged. You haven't been here to see previous discussions, but the pens had the lowest percentage chance if winning the #1 pick overall of any team since the lottery started. Behind closed doors was a mistake, but if you think 29 other teams sat there and let that happen you're nuts.

 

Bankruptcy is bankruptcy. The Pens didn't turn a profit. Also, for a team to go bankrupt, they have to lose money for a long time. One or two seasons with a net loss does not make for a bankruptcy.

 

You can't win all the time. A franchise has to be able to stay profitable during lean years. What separates successful hockey markets from markets that don't survive is the ability to stay relevant and profitable even when the team isn't winning.

 

I was joking about the Crosby draft being rigged, but I believe Pittsburgh did have the most balls in the machine, and thus had the best odds (along with a few other teams). 

 

 

Recapping 2005:

 

"Being that the 2005 Draft followed a lockout, the lottery worked differently than years past. Teams were allotted one, two, or three balls based on playoff appearances and first overall draft picks from the previous three years.

 

The four teams with three balls and the greatest chances of winning what was then being called the "Sidney Crosby Sweepstakes" were the Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Rangers, Buffalo Sabres, and Pittsburgh Penguins."

[Polaris922]

Bankruptcy is bankruptcy. The Pens didn't turn a profit. Also, for a team to go bankrupt, they have to lose money for a long time. One or two seasons with a net loss does not make for a bankruptcy.

You can't win all the time. A franchise has to be able to stay profitable during lean years. What separates successful hockey markets from markets that don't survive is the ability to stay relevant and profitable even when the team isn't winning.

I was joking about the Crosby draft being rigged, but I believe Pittsburgh did have the most balls in the machine, and thus had the best odds (along with a few other teams).

Recapping 2005:

"Being that the 2005 Draft followed a lockout, the lottery worked differently than years past. Teams were allotted one, two, or three balls based on playoff appearances and first overall draft picks from the previous three years.

The four teams with three balls and the greatest chances of winning what was then being called the "Sidney Crosby Sweepstakes" were the Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Rangers, Buffalo Sabres, and Pittsburgh Penguins."

Your quote proves my point. The Pens , though last place the last season played, were reduced to 6% odds of winning. Lowest in draft lottery history.

And attendance profits meant nothing to a team so poorly mismanaged. Countless interviews with past ownership after the sale of the team revealed numerous mistakes in financial decisions. That's what sank them.

[WordsOfWisdom]

Your quote proves my point. The Pens , though last place the last season played, were reduced to 6% odds of winning. Lowest in draft lottery history.

And attendance profits meant nothing to a team so poorly mismanaged. Countless interviews with past ownership after the sale of the team revealed numerous mistakes in financial decisions. That's what sank them.

 

Teams either had 1, 2, or 3 balls in the machine. 2 > 1, 3 > 2. Teams with three balls had the best chance of winning. I watched it on television. Are you saying Pittsburgh didn't have 3 balls in the machine? 

 

Yes, bad management can sink teams. Absolutely. All I'm saying is, Pittsburgh almost lost their franchise before 2005.

[Polaris922]

Teams either had 1, 2, or 3 balls in the machine. 2 > 1, 3 > 2. Teams with three balls had the best chance of winning. I watched it on television. Are you saying Pittsburgh didn't have 3 balls in the machine?

Yes, bad management can sink teams. Absolutely. All I'm saying is, Pittsburgh almost lost their franchise before 2005.

The Crosby draft was the first time the last place team the previously played season did NOT have a larger chance of getting #1 in the lottery than other teams. The Pens had a 6% chance rather than the traditional 20% chance thanks to the lockout.

Even Chicago's owner Bill Wirtz shouted "Justice!" when the Pens won the lottery. So the fact is people like to say rigged, when it was actually almost screwing them. Lol

[WordsOfWisdom]

The Crosby draft was the first time the last place team the previously played season did NOT have a larger chance of getting #1 in the lottery than other teams. The Pens had a 6% chance rather than the traditional 20% chance thanks to the lockout.

Even Chicago's owner Bill Wirtz shouted "Justice!" when the Pens won the lottery. So the fact is people like to say rigged, when it was actually almost screwing them. Lol

 

In any event, they won it.    

 

I'm watching the game against Vancouver tonight and they're showing video clips of Harold Ballard -- the worst owner in professional sports history. (Former Leafs owner.) You should check out the history on him and the stuff he did during his time in Toronto. It's legendary for all the wrong reasons. LOL. 

[WordsOfWisdom]

Looking at the three-way tank that is taking place:

 

Buffalo (44 pts) isn't going to win more than one more game until Edmonton (48 pts) wins another game, and Edmonton isn't going to win another game until Arizona (50 pts) wins another game.

 

It's a game of chicken for the coveted 29th and 30th place positions in the standings, and the outcome is as predictable as it gets.

 

#BrokenLeague

 

 

Toronto plays Edmonton tonight. Therefore, Toronto is guaranteed to win. When has anyone said with 100% certainty that Toronto is going to win a game? Mark my words, they win tonight. The fix is in.

[Polaris922]

Looking at the three-way tank that is taking place:

Buffalo (44 pts) isn't going to win more than one more game until Edmonton (48 pts) wins another game, and Edmonton isn't going to win another game until Arizona (50 pts) wins another game.

It's a game of chicken for the coveted 29th and 30th place positions in the standings, and the outcome is as predictable as it gets.

#BrokenLeague

Toronto plays Edmonton tonight. Therefore, Toronto is guaranteed to win. When has anyone said with 100% certainty that Toronto is going to win a game? Mark my words, they win tonight. The fix is in.

How exactly is Edmonton tanking?? Hall is injured... RNH has been scoring points left and right the second half of the season. They haven't made enormously bad trades.... What are they doing that hasn't been happening for years??

[WordsOfWisdom]

How exactly is Edmonton tanking?? Hall is injured... RNH has been scoring points left and right the second half of the season. They haven't made enormously bad trades.... What are they doing that hasn't been happening for years??

 

They're losing games on purpose to stay behind Arizona in the standings and to try and finish below Buffalo. 

[Polaris922]

They're losing games on purpose to stay behind Arizona in the standings and to try and finish below Buffalo.

You seriously think they could convince men who's livelihoods and future contracts, entire careers to this point, are fully dependent on his competitive they are, to lose on purpose?? They don't seem to be doing any worse than any other recent years...?

[WordsOfWisdom]

You seriously think they could convince men who's livelihoods and future contracts, entire careers to this point, are fully dependent on his competitive they are, to lose on purpose?? They don't seem to be doing any worse than any other recent years...?

 

The fact that all three teams are on prolonged losing streaks at the exact same time is very suspicious.   This is a statistical anomaly that doesn't happen by pure chance.

 

Also, all three of these teams are way below the 27th place team. Again, statistically unlikely. Toronto has 60 points. Dallas has 74 points. There is far too much parity in the NHL today for three established franchises to be so much lower than everyone else in the standings. I think Buffalo, Edmonton, and Arizona are tanking, and I think the numbers back it up. 

 

Since nobody believes it until someone in the media writes about it, here is an article from today:

 

http://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2015/03/tanking-for-mcdavid-time-for-nhl-to-have-a-playoff-for-draft-order-or-end-the-draft-altogether.html

 

and another (this guy was bang on with his prediction):

 

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/nhls-new-draft-lottery-rules-will-encourage-tanking-heres-why/

[Polaris922]

The fact that all three teams are on prolonged losing streaks at the exact same time is very suspicious. This is a statistical anomaly that doesn't happen by pure chance.

Also, all three of these teams are way below the 27th place team. Again, statistically unlikely. Toronto has 60 points. Dallas has 74 points. There is far too much parity in the NHL today for three established franchises to be so much lower than everyone else in the standings. I think Buffalo, Edmonton, and Arizona are tanking, and I think the numbers back it up.

Could it have anything to do with the trade deadline and some of their better players going away for future picks? Then Taylor Hall's injury in Edmonton? Trading talent for Kane (injured) in Buffalo? Boedker and Hanzal injuries in Phoenix? Yandle traded... Leaving Doan pretty much alone? OEL just got hurt now too...

Teams that sell big ALWAYS suck after the deadline. They're rebuilding. That's the norm these past decades.

[WordsOfWisdom]

http://thehockeywriters.com/you-absolutely-see-tanking-in-nhl-spotlight/

 

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/03/jack-eichel-connor-mcdavid-nhl-draft-preview

 

http://www.tsn.ca/radio/farber-on-nhl-tanking-the-draft-system-1.220476

[WordsOfWisdom]

Could it have anything to do with the trade deadline and some of their better players going away for future picks? Then Taylor Hall's injury in Edmonton? Trading talent for Kane (injured) in Buffalo? Boedker and Hanzal injuries in Phoenix? Yandle traded... Leaving Doan pretty much alone? OEL just got hurt now too...

Teams that sell big ALWAYS suck after the deadline. They're rebuilding. That's the norm these past decades.

 

LOL. Polaris, it's tanking!!! Come on dude! Looks like a duck. Quacks like a duck. Walks like a duck. It's a DUCK!!!

 

If this was a murder trial, we'd have the murder weapon, the fingerprints on it, video footage of the killing, 10,000 witnesses, and the killer admitting to the crime!