Karlsson for the Hart?

[ScottM]

 

I know I've been hyping Karlsson a lot this year, but with the type of season he's having, it's hard not to as a Sens fan. Right now, he's leading the league in assists, and is on a 90 point pace, which is a higher point total than last year's Art Ross winner. In this thread, I'd like to present the three players that I suspect would be finalists if the season were to end today and make the case for Karlsson as the winner of the Hart Trophy.

 

Our finalists are Karlsson, Patrick Kane, and Jamie Benn. At the moment, Karlsson is on a pace for 20 goals and 70 assists (90 points), Kane is on a pace for 49 goals and 62 assists (111 points), and Benn is on a pace for 51 goals and 58 assists (109 points).

 

Kane is having an incredible season to be sure, especially considering the offseason problems that he had. He has never posted more than 88 points in a season before (which is certainly a good mark, but nothing near his current pace) and his scoring pace in today's game is absolutely blistering. Benn won last season's scoring race, but the race seemed awfully weak with 87 points being enough to take the crown. This season is a different story. He's a point behind Kane in that battle at the moment, but he's leading the league in goals, and obviously a 50 goal season is nothing to sneeze at.

 

That being said, I mean no offense to the season that Jamie Benn is having, but his season kind of falls in place with what his team is doing. Tyler Seguin has 47 points and John Klingberg has 32 on the blueline. Benn's numbers are outstanding, but they're not so eye-popping in the context of what his team is doing.

 

That's not so of Kane. He has outpaced anyone else on his team by 19 points, and has been a one-man wrecking crew. He has come down to earth a bit from that ridiculous start to the season, but there's absolutely no shame in that. It wasn't at all likely that he'd be able to sustain a near 130 point pace. Plus, thinking about where the Blackhawks would be without him shows his value.

 

Still, if Kane is invaluable to his team, I think Karlsson is even more so to Ottawa. The Sens are one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, but the goaltending has been streaky and the defensive core lacks depth with only two or three guys that I really trust. The team is in the thick of a division race despite the fact that the possession metrics are atrocious. Yet, Karlsson has been one of the few consistent bright spots in the situation. He's one of very few players on the team with a positive Corsi rating, and he's logging over 28 minutes of ice time per game. Despite the fact that the team is scoring so much and the fact that he's a defenseman, he's still leading the team in scoring. Mike Hoffman -- who's having an incredible season -- has the second best points pace on the team, and Karlsson still figures to top him by about 10 points. Plus, a lot of what Hoffman has done has been set up by Karlsson. No Karlsson, most likely no amazing season for Hoffman, and absolutely a disaster for the team.

 

All things told, if we're looking at a defenseman with 20 goals at the end of the year (very tough in today's game) and 90 points (unheard of in today's game), who finishes barely 20 points off the pace in the scoring race and leads the league in assists, plus being the clear reason why his team is competitive, I think Karlsson will have an incredibly strong argument for the Hart. Maybe I'm biased, but if things hold up, I think he'd have my vote if I had one.

[JagerMeister]

If Karlsson's point production pace doesn't significantly decline, perhaps I will consider him for the Hart. Im excluding Benn as the Hart winner primarily for the fact that he plays with someone of near identical point production ( Also, Kilngberg), and if he were to win, it would be imprecise to the definition of what the Hart trophy is. Its an incredibly close battle for the Hart between Karlsson and Kane IMO.

[ScottM]

If Karlsson's point production pace doesn't significantly decline, perhaps I will consider him for the Hart. Im excluding Benn as the Hart winner primarily for the fact that he plays with someone of near identical point production ( Also, Kilngberg), and if he were to win, it would be imprecise to the definition of what the Hart trophy is. Its an incredibly close battle for the Hart between Karlsson and Kane IMO.

 

Yeah, I only included Benn because if things continue as they are now I believe that he'll be a finalist. That doesn't mean I agree with that, but you and I both know (and have discussed) how that works. I will readily admit that Kane has an exceptionally strong case, but I'll say now that if Karlsson keeps up what he's doing now and isn't at least a finalist, I'll be quite upset. That would prove once and for all that the voters don't really pay attention to their job.

[JagerMeister]

Yeah, I only included Benn because if things continue as they are now I believe that he'll be a finalist. That doesn't mean I agree with that, but you and I both know (and have discussed) how that works. I will readily admit that Kane has an exceptionally strong case, but I'll say now that if Karlsson keeps up what he's doing now and isn't at least a finalist, I'll be quite upset. That would prove once and for all that the voters don't really pay attention to their job.

The voters have haven't shown any bias against Karlsson. So I highly doubt that will happen. If anything, some might argue that he has been favored over other worthy candidates for the Norris trophy.

[ScottM]

The voters have haven't shown any bias against Karlsson. So I highly doubt that will happen. If anything, some might argue that he has been favored over other worthy candidates for the Norris trophy.

 

But voters have shown a bias against defensemen. I have a soft spot for defensemen, maybe because I think they're underappreciated. I'd be tooting Karlsson's horn this year no matter who he played for. I'd like to see that bias broken, and this may be the best chance for that to happen for a while.

[Seguin]

Jamie Benn is going to snatch the Hart Trophy without even thinking about it. I would be shocked if Karlsson wins it over guys like Benn and Kane.

[JagerMeister]

Jamie Benn is going to snatch the Hart Trophy without even thinking about it. I would be shocked if Karlsson wins it over guys like Benn and Kane.

Your bias clouds your judgement young padone....

Seriously tho, I dont think anyone should proclaim the Hart winners with such certitude just yet.

Even then, I would have to disagree with Jamie Benn being the winner. As stated in my previous comment, Benn is playing with a linemate who is producing at a near identical rate offensively in addition to K lingberg. Remember, the hart trophy is not intended for the best player in the league. By definition, it is the most valuable. Which is not synonymous.

If a forward is to be selected for the Hart, I think Kane would be better suited to win, the next leading scorer has around 30 points to Kane's 53.

[ScottM]

Jamie Benn is going to snatch the Hart Trophy without even thinking about it. I would be shocked if Karlsson wins it over guys like Benn and Kane.

 

If the voters go by the definition of the trophy, Benn will have no chance. If you take him away from the Stars, there would likely be a drop off, but they'd still be strong contenders. Take Karlsson away from the Senators or Kane away from the Blackhawks and those teams area also-rans at best,

[fanning&swirling]

Kane and Benn is playing with the best linemates, better team than Karlsson does. Both Blackhawks and Stars will do fine without them, but Sens should be shadowed by Jets right now. Karlsson carrying his team like no other player in the NHL, like last year too. He´ll deserve it of course. He´ll win the Norris too. No match, Klingberg meh, Karlsson is the best player in the world now. 

[fanning&swirling]

On 30 december 2015 at 5:01 PM, ScottM said:

 

If the voters go by the definition of the trophy, Benn will have no chance. If you take him away from the Stars, there would likely be a drop off, but they'd still be strong contenders. Take Karlsson away from the Senators or Kane away from the Blackhawks and those teams area also-rans at best,

you think Blackhawks are crap without Kane? No, thier team is the best in the league. They´ll do fine 

[ScottM]

5 minutes ago, fanning&swirling said:

you think Blackhawks are crap without Kane? No, thier team is the best in the league. They´ll do fine 

No, I didn't say that, but it is very obvious that they would take a hit without him, and I think there would be a real chance that they'd miss the playoffs if they went without him for a long stretch, because they're in the most competitive division in hockey. He's on pace for about 120 points which is unheard of in today's NHL. They are among the best teams in the league right now, but they are not the best. Even so, Patrick Kane is a very large reason why they're among the league's elite teams this year.

Anyway, with the Sens currently outside the playoff picture, that would probably mean Kane was a lock for the Hart if the season ended today.

[yave1964]

Karlsson is brilliant this year, (like every other year) and he is probably a mortal lock for the Norris but as for the Hart, with all due respect to his skils, I rank him about 4th behind:

 

Kane

________

Benn

Holtby

Karlsson

  And it says a lot about Kane that the other three are simply elite but IMHO none are close to him this year. Chicago with all of their losses is still in the mix as the leagues top team and riding on Kanes shoulders. He will end up in the 110ish points on the year after years of league leaders not approaching that total.

[JagerMeister]

28 minutes ago, yave1964 said:

Karlsson is brilliant this year, (like every other year) and he is probably a mortal lock for the Norris but as for the Hart, with all due respect to his skils, I rank him about 4th behind:

 

Kane

________

Benn

Holtby

Karlsson

  And it says a lot about Kane that the other three are simply elite but IMHO none are close to him this year. Chicago with all of their losses is still in the mix as the leagues top team and riding on Kanes shoulders. He will end up in the 110ish points on the year after years of league leaders not approaching that total.

originally known as the Hart Trophy, is awarded annually to the "player judged most valuable to his team" in the National Hockey League

You think Benn playing with Seguin and Klingberg, both among the best in their positions, is more valuable to his team than Karlsson?

[fanning&swirling]

7 hours ago, JagerMeister said:

originally known as the Hart Trophy, is awarded annually to the "player judged most valuable to his team" in the National Hockey League

You think Benn playing with Seguin and Klingberg, both among the best in their positions, is more valuable to his team than Karlsson?

exactly. If they go with the criteria of the Hart no one is near Karlsson

[yave1964]

10 hours ago, JagerMeister said:

originally known as the Hart Trophy, is awarded annually to the "player judged most valuable to his team" in the National Hockey League

You think Benn playing with Seguin and Klingberg, both among the best in their positions, is more valuable to his team than Karlsson?

Kind of like the Norris was meant to go to the leagues best defensive d-man  you cannot have it both ways, lol. Again Karlsson is an elite talent but the MVP, no, in the discussion absolutely but Kane ran away and hid with that a long time ago. Su unless he goes back to Buffalo and hits the nightclubs with his cousin Evander over the All Star break and gets suspended or something, this one is already over.

[JagerMeister]

3 hours ago, yave1964 said:

Kind of like the Norris was meant to go to the leagues best defensive d-man  you cannot have it both ways, lol. Again Karlsson is an elite talent but the MVP, no, in the discussion absolutely but Kane ran away and hid with that a long time ago. Su unless he goes back to Buffalo and hits the nightclubs with his cousin Evander over the All Star break and gets suspended or something, this one is already over.

The Norris was intended to be awarded to the best all around defenseman. Now whether they actually have stayed true to its definition is another discussion.

But they have mostly stayed true to the Hart definition, and if Karlsson maintains this point production. He will be the only other defenseman to finish top five among point producers besides Coffey and Orr. That's much more rare then a 100 point season.

[ScottM]

14 hours ago, yave1964 said:

Karlsson is brilliant this year, (like every other year) and he is probably a mortal lock for the Norris but as for the Hart, with all due respect to his skils, I rank him about 4th behind:

 

Kane

________

Benn

Holtby

Karlsson

  And it says a lot about Kane that the other three are simply elite but IMHO none are close to him this year. Chicago with all of their losses is still in the mix as the leagues top team and riding on Kanes shoulders. He will end up in the 110ish points on the year after years of league leaders not approaching that total.

I think Holtby looks like the Vezina winner at this point, but I'd have a gripe with him being a major Hart contender. I did a post once that discussed when I think goalies should win the Hart, and he really doesn't fit my criteria this year. 1) The goalie should really set himself apart from other goalies. Luongo is really starting to nip at his heels, and if the season ended now and Luongo got it, I wouldn't exactly be shocked. 2) There should be a weaker than normal skater class, which we certainly don't have this year. All of that is because I think that for just about any team with a good goalie, the argument could be made that the goalie is the MVP of the team, which would make the Hart and Vezina redundant most years. I think truly elite seasons should be recognized, but otherwise, leave the goalis to their own award.

Then again, I don't think the voters know what they're doing half the time, and I suspect that Ovi will be a finalist because he looks like he's headed for 50+ again.

[JagerMeister]

As the season progresses I have been gradually leaning towards Karlsson for the Hart. It`s implausible that he actually accumulates 90 points, but we are more then half way through the season and he has managed to maintain it, although rather inconsistently if that makes any sense. But if he does, it would be an historical season and a much more rare occurrence then Kane`s seaon right now. The last player to accumulate over 90 points was Ray Bourque and he was 20th in points, Karlsson is currently second. The only other defenseman that were second in point production were Paul Coffey and Bobby Orr. Which makes it even more impressive, and I don't think people realize how incredible of a season he is having.

 

But the aforementioned is all hypothetical, yet there are still reasonable justifications for Karlsson to win the hart excluding the above. While Kane has unquestionably been the most impactful player of his team, he still has a top 5 goaltender in Crawford this year. Karlsson has the lesser team. He plays almost 30 minutes a night and his production exceeds virtually all forwards except 2 players, with much more defensive responsibility in addition and yet his team is still struggling to qualify for the playoffs. People might actually say that undermines my argument, but I perceive it as a testament to how valuable Karlsson actually is to his team. If he was removed, Ottawa`s playoff chances would be unattainable this year. And the fact that the team still struggle for the playoffs is something a single individual can`t control in a team sport.

[BluPuk]

Hmm. I think he needs to improve as a defenseman first. Granted, I have only seen him play 3 games, but he was awful with turnovers. He's more like a goal scorer who plays back sometimes than he is a defenseman. Personally, I wouldn't even give him one thought for the Hart, or the Norris. But, these trophies are all nothing more than popularity contests these days, so why not John Scott? 

[ScottM]

8 hours ago, JagerMeister said:

As the season progresses I have been gradually leaning towards Karlsson for the Hart. It`s implausible that he actually accumulates 90 points, but we are more then half way through the season and he has managed to maintain it, although rather inconsistently if that makes any sense. But if he does, it would be an historical season and a much more rare occurrence then Kane`s seaon right now. The last player to accumulate over 90 points was Ray Bourque and he was 20th in points, Karlsson is currently second. The only other defenseman that were second in point production were Paul Coffey and Bobby Orr. Which makes it even more impressive, and I don't think people realize how incredible of a season he is having.

 

But the aforementioned is all hypothetical, yet there are still reasonable justifications for Karlsson to win the hart excluding the above. While Kane has unquestionably been the most impactful player of his team, he still has a top 5 goaltender in Crawford this year. Karlsson has the lesser team. He plays almost 30 minutes a night and his production exceeds virtually all forwards except 2 players, with much more defensive responsibility in addition and yet his team is still struggling to qualify for the playoffs. People might actually say that undermines my argument, but I perceive it as a testament to how valuable Karlsson actually is to his team. If he was removed, Ottawa`s playoff chances would be unattainable this year. And the fact that the team still struggle for the playoffs is something a single individual can`t control in a team sport.

 

Write this one down. We're in complete agreement on something. Lol

[JagerMeister]

7 hours ago, BluPuk said:

Hmm. I think he needs to improve as a defenseman first. Granted, I have only seen him play 3 games, but he was awful with turnovers. He's more like a goal scorer who plays back sometimes than he is a defenseman. Personally, I wouldn't even give him one thought for the Hart, or the Norris. But, these trophies are all nothing more than popularity contests these days, so why not John Scott? 

While I disagree with the Hart, I see it as a defendable position to take. The Norris though? I don't think there is anyone absolutely dominating defensively that it is enough to compensate for the significant point production Karlsson has over all defenseman.

 

And popularity contest? Honestly, that only applies to a few trophies. The Hart ain't one of them.

[BluPuk]

I guess you haven't watched a Kings' game this year? Doughty is the best defenseman in the league (by a mile IMHO) and has been for some years, but he never gets a Norris because he doesn't score a lot of points. And how is the Hart not a popularity contest? Seriously? I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. Actually, I usually try to stay out of these 'who should get X trophy' discussions because I am biased as hell towards Canadians.......

I think I'll withdraw. 

[JagerMeister]

Just now, BluPuk said:

I guess you haven't watched a Kings' game this year? Doughty is the best defenseman in the league (by a mile IMHO) and has been for some years, but he never gets a Norris because he doesn't score a lot of points. And how is the Hart not a popularity contest? Seriously? I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. Actually, I usually try to stay out of these 'who should get X trophy' because I am biased as hell towards Canadians.......

I think I'll withdraw. 

Well, how is it a popularity contest? if you look at the previous winners of this decade, Carey Price, Sidney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin. Are you saying they won because of popularity and not out of merit?

[J0e Th0rnton]

8 minutes ago, BluPuk said:

I guess you haven't watched a Kings' game this year? Doughty is the best defenseman in the league (by a mile IMHO) and has been for some years, but he never gets a Norris because he doesn't score a lot of points. And how is the Hart not a popularity contest? Seriously? I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. Actually, I usually try to stay out of these 'who should get X trophy' discussions because I am biased as hell towards Canadians.......

I think I'll withdraw. 

DOughty is playing very good. But I know a defenseman in the division who has the same Points per game as DOughty and is better defensively and at moving the puck. And his name is Marc Edouard-Vlasic. Quite frankly, Vlasic is the best puck moving defensive Dman in the league, and is on pace for 45-50 points. Vlasic is finally getting reliable 2nd PP time from a coach who will let him jump in, and it is showing.

 

But neither of them will win the Norris. Karlsson and Burns are front runners here and Karlsson has a reasonable lead. It was closer a month ago when Burns went on a tear. But Karlsson has been hot himself.

 

Karlsson won't win the Hart either. If the Sens were in the winning bracket, he would get consideration. But non-playoff teams don't get Hart consideration players very often.