Patience?

[hobie]

We generally think that drafting and developing is the best means to putting a champion together. This is probably true and more so if a team accumulates the right players at the right time.

For me, the right players would be a FLC, a #1 d-man and a goalie. Of those 3 right players I would say the goalie is the most disposable as we've seen great teams win without having hall of fame goalies.

 

It's felt by many that if you have super star/elite talent from the age of 18/19 you should have somewhere between 10 to 14 years to build a winner around them. In a perfect world that might be the case but is it true. Is it proper to assume that a 19 year old Matthews is going to be better at 25 and at least as good at 30 as he was at 25? This question is yet to be answered so I think we need to compare him to players of his potential ilk or better.

 

I've looked at the careers of Ove, Stamkos, Crosby, Malkin, Kane and Rick Nash as possible comparables and found that all of these players were at their peak, most productive offensively for about 5 or 6 years from their draft years. Ove for instance scored more than 100 points in 4 of his first 5 years, Crosby as well, Stamkos had his best Pts. per game averages in his first 5 years, Malkin did the most of his offensive damage in his first 6 years, Kane and Nash are all over the place but again mostly at their best early in their careers.

 

There are a variety of possible reasons for the noticeable drop off in production from these great players like injury, motivation and God knows how many others but pretty well without doubt superior players are most productive early in their careers. It would also make sense that a team that has these superior assets would be best served by surrounding them with the necessary ingredients to win, ASAP. 

 

Chicago won their first cup 2 years after Kane and Toews were first added to the team. Chicago already had Keith so they were simply in need of the other essential ingredient(s) to top up their roster and so then added Sharp and Hossa.

 

People feel that TO is now in the patience mode, the draft and develop mode and shouldn't feel overly pressured to succeed now. That's not true, now we see that Matthews is as good and maybe even better than billed, so TO is on the clock, it doesn't have 5 or 6 years to build the winner because that 5 or 6 year window might and probably is the window TO has to win the cup.  

[BluPuk]

I believe that philosophy is the carrot in front of the donkey (no offense). Using that philosophy is what got us to where we were two years ago. And we had been there since 1967. Patience Grasshopper..... 

[yave1964]

@hobie

 

Good analogy with the Hawks, Kane and Toews and Keith and the other young players came up and were augmented with veterans to the core to complete an absolute juggernaut of a club that is as close to a dynasty as we have seen for quite some time. They are the Gold standard of roster building.

 

 Toronto has the kids, Matthews and the rest (I would mention all of their names but as a Wings fan I get a pain in the pit of my stomach thinking about it) but as mentioned they lack the experienced veterans to take them to the next level. some young vets such as Kadri and JVR are still hanging around and seem to be feeding off of the youthful exuberance and have rekindled their careers but the question is, how soon do you make a splash for the player or two to put them into serious consideration for the Cup?

  I know that like most everyone the Leafs were prepared to make a move on Stammer before he resigned with the Bolts this past offseason and instead played it close to the vest adding superpest Matt Martin and turning it over to the kids which in hindsight was the perfect move for this year.

  Upcoming free agents at the end of 2016-17:

Joe Thornton. Leafs don't need a center and he likely is not leaving the Sharks.

Patrick Sharp. 36 next year and concussion prone. Pass.

Jagr, Iginla, Doan, Marleau, a bunch of old farts with nothing left.

 

  Very shallow free agent class to put it mildly. Here, if they go that route is who I would target.

 

1) Kevin Shattenkirk. Join the long line fellas, he is always among the top two or three in PPP among d-men and a great fit wherever he goes but the price/term will not be cheap.

 

2) T.J. Oshie. Ball of energy who never stops could be the forward the young kids need to grow around and would relish the role. Again, in a class that is not deep he would require being overpaid but that is how free agency works.

 

3) Michael Stone in Arizona. Nobody outside of the desert has heard of this guy but he is as technichaly sound on defense as anyone in the game and plays hard minutes in front of his net. He would be a perfect fit with Reilly, allowing Reilly to roam.

 

So either Shatty or Oshie and Stone.

 

As for trades, obviously the kids stay put, Bozak has little trade value, Kadri and JVR do but they have found a spark so do you keep them or trade them for help on the back end?

 

 Any way you look at it, I am envious of the Leaf organization which is something that as a Wing fan I cannot remember the last time I spoke those words.

 

[BluPuk]

We still have a looong ways to go though....

[WordsOfWisdom]

On 1/18/2017 at 6:35 PM, hobie said:

People feel that TO is now in the patience mode, the draft and develop mode and shouldn't feel overly pressured to succeed now. That's not true, now we see that Matthews is as good and maybe even better than billed, so TO is on the clock, it doesn't have 5 or 6 years to build the winner because that 5 or 6 year window might and probably is the window TO has to win the cup.

 

I think the important thing is to keep the draft picks in our system so that we can sustain any success we have by continually bringing up NHL-ready players like the Detroit Red Wings did. We need to have a continuous supply of talented young players to fill the void left by departing players as we begin to bump into the salary cap. We don't want to deplete our minor league system again because it takes so long to rebuild. 

 

I'm actually more interested in seeing the Leafs make the playoffs regularly again rather than a "sell the farm, one and done" scenario. They need to be in the top 8 regularly to re-establish credibility in the NHL. That's more important for the health and value of the franchise than winning a championship is.

 

Right now the Leafs are part of a mixture of NHL teams that includes the Islanders, Coyotes, Avalanche, Oilers, Jets, etc.... They're in the "forgotten" bunch. Their games don't make television in the US. No casual fan outside of Toronto can name a Leafs player other than Matthews, and prior to him they couldn't name any. If the Leafs were to suddenly contend now, I bet ya dollars to donuts that nobody broadcasts the games on TV outside of southern Ontario region. It would be seen as a fluke because they don't have that winning "cachet" yet. There's no name brand recognition to the players... yet. That takes a few years of winning (and a few years of individual player awards) to build. (A 50-goal season doesn't hurt either.)

 

Right now it must be like pulling teeth to try and get people to play here. Toronto has arguably been the least attractive destination in the NHL for players for the past decade. The players don't like the media spotlight in Toronto, and they don't like playing in Canada period. This team has to show that they can make the top 8 consistently before they will attract elite level players via trade or free agency to complement the existing cast.

 

I do like your premise, but there's no Duncan Keith in Toronto. The Leafs still need to acquire their franchise defenceman before we can get serious about winning now. My two cents.

 

 

 

[hobie]

OK, Words the right draft choices are even more imperative than just sheer numbers. Detroit stayed on top for many years because they got lucky with Lidstrom, Datsyuk and Zetterberg which gave them an extremely great core and it was because of that core they were able to attract great FAs like Shanahan and Rafalski which helped them continue to be a contender.  The draft did little for them other than provide fillers and constantly having a lot of prospects hasn't enabled them to maintain their advantage. Detroit excelled while having a roster of that superior core and as that core has aged out Detroit's future is dimming, as it should.

 

We are now seeing that Detroit beyond that core isn't a great team no matter how well they have developed their prospects, you can't develop talent, it's inherent. Drafting and developing isn't the key, it's who you draft. You don't have to tank as we know from how Detroit got Lidstrom, Datsyuk, etc., teams simply need to be better when picking in the draft.

 

TO does need a #1 d-man so let's hope he's already in the pipeline or get's lucky in the draft because I don't want TO to be horrible for years deliberately to find one.

[WordsOfWisdom]

On 1/23/2017 at 6:48 PM, hobie said:

TO does need a #1 d-man so let's hope he's already in the pipeline or get's lucky in the draft because I don't want TO to be horrible for years deliberately to find one.

 

Agreed.