LV Phantoms and other Flyers Prospect discussions 2017-2018

[flyercanuck]

1 hour ago, vis said:

There is none, really.  Best you can do is hope they pan out.

 

It makes me wonder if the prospect base, particularly at forward, is as strong as we had hoped - especially since Laberge and Rubtsov were high picks.  There should be more than just a "hope" that they pan out.  I know Laberge had an injury and that's unfortunate.  There was excitement around Rubtsov, especially when he came over from Russia, but that seems to have waned.  I don't recall him having a strong camp (granted, he is young and there are plenty of camps in his future).  

 

I'm glad to hear Lindblom has come around, so maybe there is less concern about his ability to translate his SEL success to the NHL.

 

Laberge had some serious concussion issues which seemed to derail his development...much like Laughton. I think he just got dealt to the Remparts yesterday...better team than the Tigres. I wouldn't count him out but he's certainly behind the 8 ball.

 

Rubtsov has had several different injuries, as well as a wasted year where he was bounced around from KHL to MHL to QMJHL. Maybe he's injury prone...maybe he's just been unlucky. He's definitely skilled. He's put up good points per game when healthy. He should be on the Russian WJ team. 

 

Both prospects are still only 19.

[elmatus]

4 hours ago, vis said:

There is none, really.  Best you can do is hope they pan out.

 

It makes me wonder if the prospect base, particularly at forward, is as strong as we had hoped - especially since Laberge and Rubtsov were high picks.  There should be more than just a "hope" that they pan out.  I know Laberge had an injury and that's unfortunate.  There was excitement around Rubtsov, especially when he came over from Russia, but that seems to have waned.  I don't recall him having a strong camp (granted, he is young and there are plenty of camps in his future).  

 

I'm glad to hear Lindblom has come around, so maybe there is less concern about his ability to translate his SEL success to the NHL.

 

Yeah, I mean Rubstov was 22nd. I know some folks had him a bit higher though, so I do understand what you mean.

 

Based on this fun little chart thing (there are probably more recent ones around): https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131

 

Picks in the 20s seem to have about a 50-60% NHL success rate. Of course, he is young, there's still time. There's also the chance he ends up on the bad side of that 50-60%.

 

Laberge was 36th, which according to that chart has about 35% success. Him not making it -- again, he's still young and very well may -- would really not be such a stretch. Most people drafted around that time don't have much of an NHL shot if any.

 

What gets me with stats like those though are the disproportionate numbers related to the top three picks turning into top six forwards or top four dmen. The numbers only further illustrate to me how difficult it is to build a contender top six without top three picks.

 

One thing I think really feeds into the prospect discussion nowadays is how intensely the NHL pushes prospects. In the mid 90s, I barely knew any prospects or rookies coming into the league, unless they happened to be huge names or something. There's a good reason for this of course, the vast majority of players who are drafted do not have NHL careers. They linger in minor leagues the whole time until they hang their skates. That's the majority. 

 

Still, in the past... decade, maybe a bit more, the league has hugely ramped up the hype train when it comes to prospects. To the point that many of us have heard tons of names. I think what happens is we begin to have a considerable misunderstanding of these players and their actual potential. We hear about them so much, that we figure they must be close to a sure thing. In reality, only a small percentage ever make it. The rest is just flash on the part of the league to drum up more interest and fire up fan bases, particular fan bases of teams that haven't been true contenders in a long time (cough cough).

[brelic]

26 minutes ago, elmatus said:

 

Yeah, I mean Rubstov was 22nd. I know some folks had him a bit higher though, so I do understand what you mean.

 

Based on this fun little chart thing (there are probably more recent ones around): https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131

 

Picks in the 20s seem to have about a 50-60% NHL success rate. Of course, he is young, there's still time. There's also the chance he ends up on the bad side of that 50-60%.

 

Laberge was 36th, which according to that chart has about 35% success. Him not making it -- again, he's still young and very well may -- would really not be such a stretch. Most people drafted around that time don't have much of an NHL shot if any.

 

What gets me with stats like those though are the disproportionate numbers related to the top three picks turning into top six forwards or top four dmen. The numbers only further illustrate to me how difficult it is to build a contender top six without top three picks.

 

One thing I think really feeds into the prospect discussion nowadays is how intensely the NHL pushes prospects. In the mid 90s, I barely knew any prospects or rookies coming into the league, unless they happened to be huge names or something. There's a good reason for this of course, the vast majority of players who are drafted do not have NHL careers. They linger in minor leagues the whole time until they hang their skates. That's the majority. 

 

Still, in the past... decade, maybe a bit more, the league has hugely ramped up the hype train when it comes to prospects. To the point that many of us have heard tons of names. I think what happens is we begin to have a considerable misunderstanding of these players and their actual potential. We hear about them so much, that we figure they must be close to a sure thing. In reality, only a small percentage ever make it. The rest is just flash on the part of the league to drum up more interest and fire up fan bases, particular fan bases of teams that haven't been true contenders in a long time (cough cough).

 

Great post all around! And thanks for the link! I’m a data nerd, so - fun.

 

Anyway, a few points I want to make. 

 

First, that’s why in a sense, you can Hextall’s approach is very statistically based. He has talked about his belief in the power of analytics and statistics. Sure, there’s a line between helpful and tunnel vision, but I’m sure most if not all teams do this to differing degrees.  

 

Anyway, the point is if you keep drafting, you eventually hit, even out of the top 3 or 6. 

 

So, when you get to the 20-25 pick, you’re looking at roughly a 20% chance that player becomes a top 6 F or top 4 D. Giroux and Richards beat the odds for us in that range. 

 

2nd rounders have even less chance of becoming top 6/4, (about 10%), but every once in a while, you get a Simmonds, or a Ghost in the 3rd. 

 

Kinda puts the Morgan Frost pick in perspective, even though he’s tearing up the OHL.

 

Whatever, you keep your draft picks, and with good scouting and instincts, you eventually hit on top players. 

 

But, yes, all recent Cup winners have had two or three top picks. 

 

Second point I wanted to make was about the prospect hype.  It’s a very smart marketing strategy. They’re selling hope, and fans whose teams aren’t doing great have something to get excited about. 

 

Brilliant, really!

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

I'm not worried about Rubtsov being injury prone or not putting up over 1.5 points per game. The Quebec league has become more defense oriented. As for Rubtsov's injuries, they're flukes. It's no worse than Nolan Patrick and his injury history. Flukes happen. He's had nothing debilitating and that's a good sign.

 

As for Laberge, I'm not throwing him out with the bath water. Any time you suffer a devastating head injury, they usually take longer to get over because there isn't just physical issues, there's psychological issues as well. Fact is, he suffered a bad concussion from an absolutely dirty play. As someonewho broke their neck and suffered a concussion and then dealt with post concussion syndrome for 7 years, I get what Laberge is going through. However, things will come together. Look at guys like Umberger and Lupul. Umberger took nearly a year to get his head back on track after the Brian Campbell hit and Lupul was never the same after he suffered a concussion and whiplash when he was hit by Derian Hatcher (his teammate at the time I might add).

 

I think both are going to be just fine. And from what Laberge was describing, his former team was a mess and maybe it's good he's getting out.

[elmatus]

10 hours ago, brelic said:

Anyway, the point is if you keep drafting, you eventually hit, even out of the top 3 or 6. 

 

Yeah, I think this is generally true. I also think recent history shows contending in the NHL often does require very high -- typically top three picks. This has been mentioned before, but the very few teams that have found cup success over the last decade or so are all teams that have had top three picks to build around (PIT, CHI, LA, BOS). Do you need that to win? I certainly hope not, but every team since the 2007-08 Wings have had such players leading the charge.

 

I think part of this is magnified in a tight salary cap era. When a good chunk of your team is filled with players who just 15 years ago would have probably been in the AHL, those generational players have an even greater impact on team success.

 

Again, I'm not suggesting I want a tank. I'm also not suggesting this is the only way. I'm just saying the roadmap to cup success this past 10 years seems to have been hugely affected by that element. I think it would be very wrong to not see that for what it is (i.e. extremely important).

[brelic]

54 minutes ago, elmatus said:

 

Yeah, I think this is generally true. I also think recent history shows contending in the NHL often does require very high -- typically top three picks. This has been mentioned before, but the very few teams that have found cup success over the last decade or so are all teams that have had top three picks to build around (PIT, CHI, LA, BOS). Do you need that to win? I certainly hope not, but every team since the 2007-08 Wings have had such players leading the charge.

 

I think part of this is magnified in a tight salary cap era. When a good chunk of your team is filled with players who just 15 years ago would have probably been in the AHL, those generational players have an even greater impact on team success.

 

Again, I'm not suggesting I want a tank. I'm also not suggesting this is the only way. I'm just saying the roadmap to cup success this past 10 years seems to have been hugely affected by that element. I think it would be very wrong to not see that for what it is (i.e. extremely important).

 

We have Patrick and Provorov. No, Provy is not a top 3 pick, but he is a true #1 in the making - just like Duncan Keith was a 2nd rounder. 

 

Can Carter Hart finish off the trifecta?

[OccamsRazor]

4 hours ago, brelic said:

Can Carter Hart finish off the trifecta?

 

I do think he will be the last missing piece.

 

I wouldn't dub him the savior......i would call him what this young team will need....the "Eraser!!!"

 

He is what they miss most now. A franchise goalie.

 

I hope he can be this team's Quick.

 

After watching Quick the other night he clearly outplayed Elliott....he was the difference maker....he gave his team a chance to pinch and be aggressive and then when they messed up he made up for it.

 

So i know the kid is still so young but i hope he can be that guy for them it would be huge.

 

He would give the club the confidence they need to be aggressive and yet knowing that every time that there is a turnover or a pass is intercepted and goes the other way or every time they get caught in a bad pinch that he is their to close the door and give them a chance in every game against anyone.

 

The "Eraser".

 

Time will tell if he can live up to expectations. I'm fine if someone comes back  says i'm too positive with his outlook i have every to be as anyone else is allowed to be the sky is falling crowd.

[brelic]

25 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

I do think he will be the last missing piece.

 

I wouldn't dub him the savior......i would call him what this young team will need....the "Eraser!!!"

 

He is what they miss most now. A franchise goalie.

 

I hope he can be this team's Quick.

 

After watching Quick the other night he clearly outplayed Elliott....he was the difference maker....he gave his team a chance to pinch and be aggressive and then when they messed up he made up for it.

 

So i know the kid is still so young but i hope he can be that guy for them it would be huge.

 

He would give the club the confidence they need to be aggressive and yet knowing that every time that there is a turnover or a pass is intercepted and goes the other way or every time they get caught in a bad pinch that he is their to close the door and give them a chance in every game against anyone.

 

The "Eraser".

 

Time will tell if he can live up to expectations. I'm fine if someone comes back  says i'm too positive with his outlook i have every to be as anyone else is allowed to be the sky is falling crowd.

 

He can definitely be that guy. He could also be Leland Irving (1st rounder, similar junior numbers) who's played 13 NHL games, or someone like Stolie (also a 2nd round pick like Hart).

 

I mean, he seems so much better, but he's also a kid dominating a junior league. It's a whole different ball of wax in the NHL. 

 

Same with Frost - history and statistics tell us there's a 60-75% chance he ends up no better than a 4th liner, and a 20% chance he ends up top 6 F.

 

I also have a very positive outlook on Hart - I think he will be a #1 goalie for the Flyers (statistically, about a 10% chance for 2nd rounders). So you and I stand to be disappointed if it doesn't work out. The sky is falling crowd is starting with low expectations so they can either be right (he's a bust) or pleasantly surprised. 

 

But if you were a betting man, would you take those odds? The sky is falling crowd has a much better chance of being right. 

 

[OccamsRazor]

3 minutes ago, brelic said:

He could also be Leland Irving

 

No chance. Go back and looking at the scouting on him nowhere even close.

 

And by the way the only way you came up with that name is that is who's record he broke with the shutouts.

 

No where are they in the same universe.

 

Flames reached big time on this guy who was just 6-0 170 and then got burned big time.

 

Sure he could still turn out to be a bust i get that but i love the chances that don't happen.

[OccamsRazor]

Some good stuff about some of Flyers college prospects.....

 

https://spark.adobe.com/page/rUce3R4m0BITH/

[OccamsRazor]

The walking wounded....

 

 

Some good news....

 

 

Keep it going.

[OccamsRazor]

 

 

 

[brelic]

Curious about Aube-Kubel. 

 

Here's a guy that has really flown under the radar. He has improved each year, with a big jump so far this year - basically surpassed last year's point totals in less than half the games (18pts in 71gp last year, 21pts in 31gp so far this year).

 

He was a big goal scorer in juniors.

 

Anyway, wondering what the thoughts are around this guy. He's 21 now, and seems to be putting it together at the AHL level. He has an NHL frame (5'11", 196lbs). Anyone think this kid has an NHL future? I can't remember the last time I've even heard his name mentioned among our prospects.

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

26 minutes ago, brelic said:

Curious about Aube-Kubel. 

 

Here's a guy that has really flown under the radar. He has improved each year, with a big jump so far this year - basically surpassed last year's point totals in less than half the games (18pts in 71gp last year, 21pts in 31gp so far this year).

 

He was a big goal scorer in juniors.

 

Anyway, wondering what the thoughts are around this guy. He's 21 now, and seems to be putting it together at the AHL level. He has an NHL frame (5'11", 196lbs). Anyone think this kid has an NHL future? I can't remember the last time I've even heard his name mentioned among our prospects.

 

 

 

 

Before Vecchione got hurt NAK and Lindblom were on his wings and were playing well.

 

And he is only in his 2nd year of his entry level deal so i would fully expect the threesome been given the rest of the year to dominate and push deep into the playoffs.

 

Then i can see all 3 be given a long hard look come next camp and that is not a bad thing they still have some developing to do.

 

Some fine points on his game need more refining. But he is coming along.

 

In Vecchione's case i could see him later in the year maybe being given a callup if someone goes down.

 

Right now Phantoms are down two key centers in MV and Vorobyev right now.

 

Their centers right now are Varone, Knight, Read and Swavely they are so beat up.

 

Last game for NAK it was Martel-Knight-NAK on the 2nd line.

 

Yep thats right Read. Swavely is up from the ECHL.

 

The future looks bright for NAK i think.

 

In fact i could see him push Weise to the pressbox or even traded fighting for a spot on at least the 3rd line by mid season next year.

[flyercanuck]

1 hour ago, brelic said:

Curious about Aube-Kubel. 

 

Here's a guy that has really flown under the radar. He has improved each year, with a big jump so far this year - basically surpassed last year's point totals in less than half the games (18pts in 71gp last year, 21pts in 31gp so far this year).

 

He was a big goal scorer in juniors.

 

Anyway, wondering what the thoughts are around this guy. He's 21 now, and seems to be putting it together at the AHL level. He has an NHL frame (5'11", 196lbs). Anyone think this kid has an NHL future? I can't remember the last time I've even heard his name mentioned among our prospects.

 

 

 

I honestly think some people (me included) were expecting him to develop slightly faster than he has. Not a knock on him...everyone has their own trajectory. As long as his game continues to improve, he looks like a good pick.

[OccamsRazor]

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

On 12/22/2017 at 8:22 AM, brelic said:

Curious about Aube-Kubel. 

 

Here's a guy that has really flown under the radar. He has improved each year, with a big jump so far this year - basically surpassed last year's point totals in less than half the games (18pts in 71gp last year, 21pts in 31gp so far this year).

 

He was a big goal scorer in juniors.

 

Anyway, wondering what the thoughts are around this guy. He's 21 now, and seems to be putting it together at the AHL level. He has an NHL frame (5'11", 196lbs). Anyone think this kid has an NHL future? I can't remember the last time I've even heard his name mentioned among our prospects.

 

 

 

Phantoms just beat Baby Pens today 3-2.

 

NAK scored the tie goal assist by Lindblom.

 

And Lindblom scored the GWer!

 

Lindblom was 1st star with a goal and 2 helpers!

 

[OccamsRazor]

 

Nice move by Ruby.

[OccamsRazor]

Sweet GWer by Oskar!!!!

 

 

 

Three Stars

1st	2nd	3rd
Oskar Lindblom Lehigh Valley Phantoms  G: 1 A: 2	Chris Conner Lehigh Valley Phantoms  G: 1 A: 1	Teddy Blueger Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins  G: 1 A: 0

[OccamsRazor]

A quick look at maybe next year's lineup: Bolded are new prospects. This will be a stacked lineup for sure!

 

 28 Lindblom 26 Varone 16 Aube-Kubel

18 Martel 17 Rubtsov 15 Salinitri 

9 Twarynski 13 Bunnaman 18 Kase

19 Fazleev 11 Laberge 12 Goulbourne

 

 

 

2 Amorosa 5 Meyers

6 Bernhardt 37 Friedman

4 Hogberg 44 Willcox

 

31- Hart

35- Sandstrom

 

 

I have Vecchione move on the replace Filppula next year on the Flyers.

 

Now of course all these guys might not be signed. And i think Allison could be added to at the end of the year too.

[OccamsRazor]

[elmatus]

7 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Wow. That's foolish impressive! I so very much hope the hype train doesn't crash and burn on this guy.

[OccamsRazor]

40 minutes ago, elmatus said:

 

Wow. That's foolish impressive! I so very much hope the hype train doesn't crash and burn on this guy.

 

Well he'll get his chance in the AHL first.

 

Then go from there. 

 

#fingerscrossed

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

8 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

A quick look at maybe next year's lineup: Bolded are new prospects. This will be a stacked lineup for sure!

 

 28 Lindblom 26 Varone 16 Aube-Kubel

18 Martel 17 Rubtsov 15 Salinitri 

9 Twarynski 13 Bunnaman 18 Kase

19 Fazleev 11 Laberge 12 Goulbourne

 

 

 

2 Amorosa 5 Meyers

6 Bernhardt 37 Friedman

4 Hogberg 44 Willcox

 

31- Hart

35- Sandstrom

 

 

I have Vecchione move on the replace Filppula next year on the Flyers.

 

Now of course all these guys might not be signed. And i think Allison could be added to at the end of the year too.

Where's Vorobyov?

[OccamsRazor]

38 minutes ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

Where's Vorobyov?

 

I did leave him off. There is a good chance he could make the Flyers too like Vecchione.

 

Regardless he will find room somewhere in there.