It's Official: Mikhail Sergachev To Remain A Bolt

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

 

From the Tampa Bay Times:

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/lightning/cooper-rookie-sergachev-is-staying-with-lightning/2342172

 

 

Well, now there we have it.

Mikhail Sergachev forced the Lightning front office's hand by playing as well as he has, and picking up the NHL game fast enough, to where Steve Yzerman decided to keep him past his 9 game tryout, and thus starting the clock on his entry level contract.

 

This tells me the Bolts really are committed to winning because if they were more concerned with just the finances, they would have sent the 19 yr old defenseman, regardless of how he has played, back to juniors to save themselves some money and an extra year of team control over him.

 

It is apparent that not only do the Bolts think he can help the team win now, but that he has outgrown juniors and can't possibly do anymore there to help develop his game.

I read somewhere else too that IDEALLY, sending him to the AHL for further tuning would have been preferable.

 

Indeed, if here were just a borderline young NHL guy in need of more seasoning, then the decision would have been even harder, but Sergachev's play suggest that despite his age, and because the AHL won't take him because of it, he will fit in just fine with the big boys.

 

He has been given increased responsibilities on the ice, has been given top pairing time with either Victor Hedman or Anton Stralman, and has played on the PP units as well.

He is quite large and mobile for his age...and probably will get even more so as he matures....and again, the most important aspect, seems to understand the NHL game.

 

Coach Jon Cooper says he is very coachable and expects him to still make rookie mistakes from time to time out there, but the positives of having him on the team far outweigh any negatives.

 

To think, I never really knew anything about this guy (I wonder how many people outside of the hardcore juniors and minors fans really did), and like some others, when Jonathan Drouin was traded for him, I was like "We got WHO??" and "Oh, we got a young defenseman....well, we probably won't see him with the NHL, maybe, for another 3 or 4 seasons"

 

I am very glad to be wrong on this, have taken a keen interest in his NHL development now and will keep this thread open to chart his progress....with all the ups n downs that go with it.

 

Can he keep up this very nice pace he has set for himself? I don't know, but he sure has a good cast around him to where he shouldn't feel the pressure to do more than what he needs to........of course, if his drive leads him to greater and greater things that is fine too!

 

Finally, even though Mikhail will be staying with the big club past "Tryout Game #9" starting tonight, there is the matter of whether he will play 40 games on the season or not.

If he does, the Bolts will NOT be getting a conditional pick from the Habs.

If he gets sent back down before his 40th game, TB gets that conditional pick.

 

That puts us back to "How bad do the Lightning want to win?"

I think, judging by how Steve Yzerman has conducted his business to this point, that if the Lightning have a real shot at a championship and Mikhail Sergachev is a regular contributor to that, he won't be worrying about conditional picks and just leave the young man right where he is.

 

Looking forward to the further adventures of The Serge, now as a full time NHL'er!

Go Bolts!

[J0e Th0rnton]

I was waiting for the Riots from habs fans if they sent him down to get that additional 2nd round pick

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

34 minutes ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

I was waiting for the Riots from habs fans if they sent him down to get that additional 2nd round pick

 

Hehe....I honestly don't think Stevie Y gives a rat's habs about Montreal's conditional pick at this point.

 

I think he is just happy the team is healthy, is winning, and he made out well after taking some initial criticism for "not getting enough back for Drouin".

 

[yave1964]

The trade is looking better every day for the Bolts and worse every day for the Habs.

[BluPuk]

This is not good news for a Leafs fan. 

 

Well done Bolts. Even if this kid doesn't play well right away (but I think he will), he is a shoe-in as a regular NHL'er. 

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

On his 10th game (1st past the tryout phase) on Tuesday night against the stingy Carolina Hurricanes, The Serge did this:

 

1G, +1 Rating, 5 SOG, blocked 1, credited with 2 hits, spent time on the PP, did NOT give the puck away at any point, and TOOK the puck away from opponents 3 times.

 

All this in just 14+ min of ice time. Not bad at all.

Being a rookie still, I am sure he will hit a wall here and there, but TB fans have to be very happy with what they are seeing, as this type of play from him doesn't look like a fluke of any sort.

 

Pre-season, I would have said other young defenseman such as Slater Koekkoek and Jake Dotchin would have been higher up on the depth chart over 19 yr old Sergachev, but I think it is safe to say now that The Serge has passed both those guys.

 

Heck, he may have even passed Andrej Sustr, an already established NHL defenseman on the depth chart as Sustr found himself a healthy scratch the game before while Sergachev continued to play important minutes for the team.

 

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

Time another "Serge" update.

 

Comparing how Sergachev's season is going as compared to the other 5 defenders that comprise the Lightning's top six defensemen.

Leaving out Slater Koekkoek and Andrej Sustr for this as they have gotten intermittent playing time and are currently serving as the Bolts' extra defensemen.

 

All numbers gotten from dobbersports hockey stat comparisons.

 

Six defenders looked at here:

Sergachev (duh, of course), Hedman, Stralman, Girardi, Coburn, and Dotchin.

 

Games Played:

All defensemen have played 17 games to this point except Dotchin, who has 16 to his credit this season.

 

Goals/Assists/Total Pts

Sergachev------ 4 /8 /12

Hedman--------  2 /11/ 13

Stralman-------- 2 / 4 / 6

Girardi----------- 0 / 3 / 3

Coburn---------- 0 / 5 / 5

Dotchin--------- 1 / 2 / 3

 

PPG's and PPP

NO defensemen on TB outside of Sergachev and Hedman have man advantage production.

Sergachev and Hedman each have a PPG....Serge has 4 assists to go with that, while Hedman has 5 assists on the man advantage.

 

Furthermore, while Anton Stralman and Jake Dotchin get some PP ice time, Hedman and Sergachev are the main defensemen out there when TB goes on the PP.

Impressive that the 19 yr old is keeping pace doing things that the Lightning's top defender, Victor Hedman, is doing.

 

In addition, both Hedman and Sergachev each have 3 multi point games while the other defenders don't have those or just one (Stralman).

 

All of TB's defensemen play on short handed units, although in this particular area, Dan Girardi, Anton Stralman, and Braydon Coburn lead the way, along with Victor Hedman.

Mikhail Sergachev serves the least purpose in this particular category...though I am sure that is only because TB is still easing him into the overall team game

 

Overall Ice Time.

Victor Hedman, not surprisingly, leads the way here at 25+ min per game, Stralman is around 21 min/g, Girardi and Coburn are around 17 each, while Dotchin and Sergachev are around the 13-14 min/g mark.

 

For the two young D-men, they are admittedly being managed carefully, but looking at the production Sergachev has managed with the carefully controlled minutes, it is easy to see it won't be long before he is entrusted to not only carry more minutes, but IMPORTANT ones late in games, during one-goal leads, and when the team needs to push for a score to tie or take the lead.

 

+/- and penalty minutes taken.

Stralman leads the way at +13,  2 PIMs

Sergachev is 2nd at +8,  8 PIMs

Hedman, +5 ,  16 PIMs

Other three D-men, +3 each with PIMs anywhere from 6-9 minutes.

 

Here, Sergachev is hanging with Anton Stralman, a long time defensive stalwart and a bit ahead of Hedman, who of course, is the Bolts do everything at an elite level guy.

And 8 penalty minutes taken is not bad at all for a young guys still learning the NHL ropes and playing against some of the better lines of the opposition.

 

Hits/Blocks/SOG

Sergachev ------- 18 / 7 / 33

Hedman---------   21 / 16 / 37

Stralman---------  15 / 16 / 26

Girardi-------------- 28 / 40 / 21

Coburn------------- 10 / 21 / 15

Dotchin------------- 20 / 17 / 15

 

Not really yet a shot blocker, Sergachev nonetheless can still be counted on to shoot the puck whenever he gets the chance and hit a decent amount of times. Should be noted too that his defensive positioning is pretty sound for a young guy and his hits rarely take him completely out of position

 

Finally, Pucks given away vs Pucks taken from the opposition.

Given - Taken

 

Sergachev----- 10-9

Hedman--------- 23-10

Stralman-------- 5 - 5

Girardi------------ 5 - 3

Coburn----------- 6 - 3

Dotchin----------- 6 - 2

 

Turning pucks over is something that, even as good as the Lightning are, the team needs to work on overall.

As you can see, the top defender, Victor Hedman does give away the puck the most (then again, he HANDLES the puck the most from the blue line too), followed by Sergachev at 10 giveaways. 

 

The other 4 defensemen don't handle the puck nearly as much as Serge and Hedman, so that probably accounts for their lower giveaway totals.

But Serge and Hedman also tend to take away the puck more often than the other defensemen too.

Still though, if there is one area where the team as a whole, including Sergachev, can afford to improve, is in the area of turnovers.

 

That's it for now.

 

 

Since I compared a slice of Serge's season to his own defensive linemates, next go round, I will compare him to a handful of other hot young defensemen playing for other teams to see how he stacks up.

Probably will be looking at guys ranging from 19-23 yrs of age and with no more than 2 years NHL experience, just to keep things equal in terms of expectations and achievements amongst the young d-men.

 

Maybe compare him to the likes of NJ's Will Butcher, Tor's Andreas Borgman, NYR's Brady Skjei, Phi's Ivan Provorov, or CBJ's Zach Werenski for example.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

Ok, as promised, another Mikhail Sergachev comparison, this time, to a smattering of Eastern Conference young defensemen of varying play styles and on teams in varying stages of the competitive curve.

 

I will just note now that some other defensemen could have also been included, I just picked out the ones I did because they seem to the 'standout' young guys on their respective teams at the D position that just came to mind right away. And yes, the Western D-men were left out for the sake of keeping this post to a reasonable length...something, I am sure, everyone knows I struggle with. 

 

All of these defensemen also have less than 3 full seasons of NHL experience under their belts. Also, all these guys range from 19 the youngest (Sergachev) to 23 the oldest (Brady Skjei).

Again, this is not meant to be comprehensive, just a sampling of how the Bolts' young blue liner stacks up against some of his peers in the East.

 

Being compared here are, Sergachev, Borgman, Butcher, Provorov, Skjei, Werenski.

All stats taken from dobber hockey's player comparison tools.

 

Let's start right away with production:

 

Goals / Assists / Total Points / Games Played

Sergachev (TB) -- 8  /  17  /  25 / 38gp

Borgman (Tor)--- 2  /  7  /  9   /  38gp

Butcher  (NJ)---- 2  /  21  / 23 /  38gp

Provorov (Phi)-- 5  /  10  / 15  / 38gp

Skjei (NYR) ---    2  /  11  / 13  / 39gp

Werenski (Cls)- 11 /  8  / 19 / 36gp

 

Granted, here Sergachev has an advantage because he plays on a highly offensive minded TB Lightning team and he himself has an offensive skillset that can play into that just fine.

A guy like Andreas Borgman, while also playing on an offensive minded Leafs team, is more defensive oriented, as is a guy like Brady Skjei, and Ivan Provorov, while having a nice offensive skillset, plays on a team that sometimes struggles to score unless its from their top line.

 

Zach Werenski has an unusual slash line due to the fact that defensemen normally have higher assists totals over goal totals.

Zach does score the most goals of this group, despite playing the least amount of games because the guy simply is that good on the attack.

 

Serge ranks 2nd here, but still compares favorably to the higher scoring Werenski in overall points. We have Will Butcher and Ivan Provorov with decent point totals as well.

 

PPG and PPP:

Not surprisingly, Sergachev does well here too.

Both he and Werenski have 2 ppg to this point, but Serge also has 10 overall PPP's compared to Werenski's overall 5 PPP's.

 

Will Butcher tops them both in overall PPP's at 13 , however ,they are all assists...he has zero PPG's.

 

Borgman, Skjei, and Provorov have no PPG's, Skjei has 2 PPP's total, Provorov has 1, Borgman has 0 total PPP's.

Again, understanding that Borgman and Skjei's games are more defense. Provorov's totals should go up given more time, but for now, Serge, Werenski, and Butcher are tops here.

 

Overall TOI:

 

Sergachev---  15:21

Borgman ----   13:50

Butcher -------  16:26

Provorov------   25:00

Skjei-------------  20:11

Werenski------  23:01

 

In this category, Mikhail Sergachev ranks low due to the fact that Steve Yzerman and Jon Cooper both agree to have Serge play "protected" minutes. 

Meaning, he won't expected to shoulder huge loads of ice time and be saddled with too much responsibility too quickly.

And why not? He plays on a deep TB team and they can afford to work him in that way. 

 

Makes things that much more impressive when you consider the lesser TOI and his production.

Still though, it will be interesting to see how he does as the team gives him more responsibility and IS expected to shoulder more of a workload...will his production take a dive? Improve? Remain about the same? Only time can tell this.

 

Borgman in Toronto seems to also be playing protected minutes, Butcher's time seems about right for a guy his age, meanwhile Provorov, Skjei, and Werenski all seem to be given "big boys" portions of ice time as they seem to be expected to shoulder more of the workload for their respective teams.

 

Provorov has a whopping 25 mins per game...that is near what the established everyday NHL blue liners play. Obviously, the Flyers are expecting him to be a top pair guy and are giving him his education early on at just 20 years of age.

 

+/- and PIMs

With regards to PIMs, all these young D-men do a pretty good job defending without taking a bunch of penalties.

This is especially impressive for all considering that most young defensemen are prone to and are sure to make a bunch of defensive errors they would than have to try to compensate for by hauling down, interfering, or otherwise compromise themselves in order to prevent good scoring chances by the opposition.

 

PIMs range from the lowest (Butcher, 4 PIMs and Werenski, 6 PIMs) to the next tier (Provorov, 12 PIMs and Skjei, 12 PIMs), to the highest tier (Sergachev and Borgman, 22 PIMs each).

 

All very good low totals given the games played and ice time skated.

Serge and Borgman tend to be more aggressive defensemen, so no surprise they have the highest of the group.

Provorov can play some aggressive D as well, and is especially impressive with just 12 mins given he has the highest ice time of this group.

 

+/- as we all know, is not an all encompassing stat, but for defenseman moreso than forwards, it is a good stat to look at in terms of how often a team scores with them on the ice.

Any player worth his salt NEVER wants a score to  happen when they are on....defensemen should take extra pride in that, given that is their primary function....helping the goalie prevent goals by limiting scoring chances.

 

Also, we need to understand +/- is severely dictated by how well the team as a whole is doing. If they are scoring more goals and winning games, then the +/- stat likely is high, and vice versa.

 

So, FWIW, here are the +/- comparisons.

 

Sergachev--- +17

Borgman-----  +4

Butcher-------  +3

Provorov------ +3

Skjei -----------  +5

Werenski-----  +2

 

None of these young defensemen are minus players. Again, impressive.

Especially for guys like Borgman, whose team doesn't normally play an overall tight defense, and Provorov, whose team has defensive issues as well as goaltending issues when Elliot isn't in his 'zone'.

 

Mikhail Sergachev does a pretty good job here too, although, admittedly, this is probably helped by the fact his linemates produce goals on all lines.

 

A break in my post, as I am having 'kiddie issues'....lmao......

Will return later to finish comparing things like SOG, giveaways, takeaways, hits and blocks.

 

Now, if you will excuse me...I need to take away the pair of pliers from one of my sons who is aspiring to be a dentist, and is thinking of using his brother as a test subject.........

 

 

 

 

 

 

[pilldoc]

54 minutes ago, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

Now, if you will excuse me...I need to take away the pair of pliers from one of my sons who is aspiring to be a dentist, and is thinking of using his brother as a test subject.........

 

LOL .....

 

 

 

By the way ...excellant post! ... I'm still kicking myself for dropping him in both the NAHANA and All Star Leagues!

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

Ok...disasters at home averted!

Thank goodness for Nintendo Wii U.

It's a nice alternative for the boys to re-arranging each other's faces with various household tools.

 

I know boys can be rough with each other (I was the only girl of my parents' 4 children), but Jeebus, my lil guys can take it to a whole new level sometimes....

 

Anyways.....

Mikhail Sergachev was the subject and how he stacks up against fellow Eastern Conference peers is what I was going on about...

 

We will continue w/ Hits / Blocks / SOG

Sergachev-----    39  /  26  /  80

Borgman---        92  /  28  /  37

Butcher-----        12  /  35  /  45

Provorov----       79  /  88  /  88

Skjei-------------    60  /  59  /  82

Werenski-------- 24  /  46  / 104

 

As you can see here, Serge REALLY likes to shoot the puck. Probably one of the main reasons he is featured on the TB PP, consistent shooting will yield lots deflected goals, leading to assists...if the shot itself doesn't go in producing a goal for him.

 

Also, during transitions, Serge will skate the puck himself sometimes towards the offensive zone and will pepper the goalie with a shot here and there....likely low percentage success rates, but a good way to keep the goalies honest and there is always a chance the goalie gives up a big rebound for another streaking player to pick up and try to score with.

 

Werenski, Provorov, and Skjei all rate higher in shots, but Serge's number there is right with them.

 

Hits and blocked shots are not an area where Serge is being asked to do a bunch. I've seen him make big hits (he basically picks his spots though) and block a shot here and there, but it isn't something he is known for doing at the moment.

Not sure he will ever project to be a real shot blocker  (Dan Girardi need not worry there), but his hit rates may go up with more ice time and experience eventually.

 

I am pretty sure the coaching staff would prefer him, at 19, to continue focusing on offense, reading plays, decision making and positioning. The hits should come if all of the above are done correctly, game in, game out.

 

Out of this group here, Andreas Borgman and Ivan Provorov shine as the top hitters, and again, keeping in mind that neither is a minus player, that is pretty nice. They can hit ya without giving up too many prime scoring chances.

Provorov in particular has a nice balance in the numbers here with regards to hitting, blocking and SOG.

 

If both he and Sergachev continue developing properly, comparisons between Philly's D-man and TB's can continue on for years.

 

Butcher and Werenski have the lowest hit numbers, but that's only because their forte is puck moving and offense.

 

And finally, an area I have found very interesting over the last couple seasons....

Give aways and Take Aways.

Why are they interesting to me?

 

Well, because it is always easy to say "Hey, that is good player" when a guy can score consistently.

Obviously, if a guy scores a lot, or hits a lot, or blocks lots of shots, one can easily point to something they are good at (or bad at, depending), no questions asked.

 

However, in the area of giveaways and takeaways, how a player performs there will often affect how well his teammates around him will do.

Lots more takeaways, and the player tends to put his linemates more on the offensive...affording everyone, including the guy taking the puck away, more chances to create offense.

 

Conversely, giveaways put the player, his linemates, and the goaltender in spots where they need to defend..and depending on how bad a giveaway, it could result in very good scoring chances for the other team.

So here we go.... Take Aways - Give Aways

 

Sergachev------  13 - 29

Borgman--------  9  -  26

Butcher----------- 7  -  19

Provorov--------  10 - 44

Skjei---------------  13 - 29

Werenski-------- 17 - 25

 

Honestly, I don't expect any of these young defensemen to have a high number of take aways vs give aways. It is an area that is most difficult for young players, particularly defensemen, to manage at the NHL level.

 

That said, most of these guys take away the puck from the opposition about the same. 

Takeaways require excellent stick handling, reading of plays, and dexterity so as not to interfere, high stick, or trip the opposing player while trying to do so.

 

Also, these numbers are dictated by how often the player handles the puck...and he often handles the puck if he is on the ice a lot.

Ivan Provorov for instance, has the highest giveaways by far...but he also is on the ice a lot more than the other defensemen in this group.

 

Will Butcher's low give away number is nice because he still plays a pretty good TOI game, but is able to hang on to the puck....although he doesn't do much for actually taking it away from the other player.

 

Werenski takes away the puck the most of this group, his giveaway number is about what the others save for Butcher who is better, and Provorov who is worse, but he too handles the puck quite a bit given he is offensive minded and plays quite a bit on the ice too.

 

Sergachev and Brady Skjei have the same numbers here, which is interesting because I think they are different type players.

Both still give away the puck more than take it away so obviously they, along with Ivan Provorov, have a ways to go to work on that part of their games.

 

Andreas Borgman with the Leafs doesn't do much to take pucks away, but his giveaway number is about what the rest are....though it should be noted that his giveaways are about the same as the other players in the 20's, but he skates with much less TOI....so it is something he DEFINITELY needs to work if he isn't going to be a top offensive defensemen..... his protection of the puck has to be up to par.

 

All I got for now.

Maybe I will look at some Western Conference young defensemen next and see how they and Sergachev compare.

 

Some interesting young Western D-men to compare Serge to could be guys like Shea Theodore in Vegas, Brandon Montour in Anaheim, Darnell Nurse in Edmonton, Nikita Zadorov in Colorado, Esa Lindell in Dallas, Mat Dumba in Minnesota, or a Josh Morrissey in Winnipeg.

 

I am also tempted to do some comparing of Sergachev vs. Drouin, even though they play different positions, to see how each of these players, traded for each other, is doing for their new teams.

 

I can tell you right now though, just doing a quick numbers browse, that if I were to do a comparison like that now, Serge would destroy Drouin.

So, I will give some more time and games played to see if Drouin's game comes around a bit more.

It just seems Drouin has much less support on the ice as well in Montreal than Sergachev does in Tampa Bay.