Flyers 2018 draft discussion

[ruxpin]

20 minutes ago, pilldoc said:

Well that was certainly entertaining.   Now I know where HJ gets hits hockey knowledge. Are all Sabre fans this utterly clueless. Good grief ........

 

I was going to go with the same exact context.   But I think clearly my track record shows I'm a lot less smarmy than you.  

[ruxpin]

Anyone know anything about Cole Fonstad at #50?  He's a RW and out of the WHL, but otherwise...

 

What about Nils Lundkvist?

 

Or do you go with Jakub Skarek if he's sitting there?  Another goalie, but at 50 if he's still there do you go that route?  Worst case is that Hart and/or Sandstrom work out and maybe Skarek becomes a trade asset down the road.

 

Thoughts on #50?  Anyone?

[AJgoal]

On 6/9/2018 at 8:02 PM, ruxpin said:

Thoughts on #50?  Anyone?

 

I wonder if Veleno is a guy who could fall into the 2nd round. Hearing some scouts aren't as high on him as the rankings might indicate.

[ruxpin]

Just now, AJgoal said:

 

I wonder if Veleno is a guy who could fall into the 2nd round. Hearing some scouts aren't as high on him as the rankings might indicate.

 

Yeah, he's fallen some, huh?  There are some players that have shot up in the last several weeks while he's fallen.   He actually could fall to the second round, though I'd be surprised.   I'd be really shocked if he's there at #50.  If he is, you already (in theory) had two first round picks; you really have to grab him there, don't you?

[AJgoal]

2 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 

Yeah, he's fallen some, huh?  There are some players that have shot up in the last several weeks while he's fallen.   He actually could fall to the second round, though I'd be surprised.   I'd be really shocked if he's there at #50.  If he is, you already (in theory) had two first round picks; you really have to grab him there, don't you?

 

I doubt he falls that far (to 50), but it's tough to not consider moving up if he hits round 2.

[ruxpin]

11 minutes ago, AJgoal said:

 

I doubt he falls that far (to 50), but it's tough to not consider moving up if he hits round 2.

 

If we're talking about trading up, if Vladimir Kotkov is still sitting there in the mid-30s, I'm seriously considering it.

[OccamsRazor]

Hey does anyone know if the NHL has a draft formula for giving pik value for trades like the NFL does??

 

I was just wonder if they did if you packaged the 14th and 19th how high they could move up.

 

Also was think Ron will make a trade some how to get back into the 3rd round where he has found some real good value.

 

He has found Friedman, Sandstrom, Bunnaman and Ustimenko in his drafts alone.

 

He also found the controversial Goulbourne in the 3rd too.

 

Tomek was also found in the 3rd too who has kind of flown under the radar after playing in the USHL this past year. Not sure where his career goes.

[pilldoc]

4 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

Hey does anyone know if the NHL has a draft formula for giving pik value for trades like the NFL does??

 

I was just wonder if they did if you packaged the 14th and 19th how high they could move up.

 

Also was think Ron will make a trade some how to get back into the 3rd round where he has found some real good value.

 

He has found Friedman, Sandstrom, Bunnaman and Ustimenko in his drafts alone.

 

He also found the controversial Goulbourne in the 3rd too.

 

Tomek was also found in the 3rd too who has kind of flown under the radar after playing in the USHL this past year. Not sure where his career goes.

 

From what I have read in the past, there is NO OFFICIAL draft chart with values for each pick.  However, there are some unofficial charts floating around the internet.

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

I found this scale don't know how accurate it would be...

 

Pick	Value
1	100
2	69.9
3	59.4
4	53.4
5	49.2
6	45.9
7	43.1
8	40.6
9	38.5
10	36.5
12	32.9
14	29.8
16	27.1
18	24.6
20	22.4
23	19.5
26	17.0
30	14.2
35	11.3
40	9.0
45	7.2
50	5.8
55	4.7
60	3.8
70	2.5
80	1.6
90	1.1
105	0.64
120	0.40
135	0.27
150	0.19
165	0.15
180	0.13
195	0.11
210	0.10

 

 

...so the Flyers picks would be valued as such: 14th (29.8) and 19th (23.6??) in value i guess. So by using this scale they could move up to 4th???

 

Here is the link i found it on.

 

https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

 

It's dated but a gauge no less.

 

So what do other think??

[OccamsRazor]

I also found this one....

 

http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

 

I'm not even going to try and post that one in this thread.

[OccamsRazor]

I just want the Flyers to do their homework and if stay put is best i am ok with best players available.

 

Just don't get crap like Patrick Juhlin with their picks....find a Gostisbehere type of guy.

[OccamsRazor]

Speaking of the infamous Juhlin does anyone remember what happened to him and why he went back overseas after his 91 point (31 goals 60 assist +43) AHL season?? 

 

Followed by 13 points in 9 AHL playoff games. Never to be heard from again. Those if even for one year are some amazing numbers i don't recall since from a Flyer prospect.

 

I don't recall a Flyers draft ever scoring like that ever in the AHL.

 

To soft for the NHL then???

 

My memory doesn't recall.

[OccamsRazor]

On 6/5/2018 at 1:39 PM, ruxpin said:

I'm impressed with Kravtsov, but I don't know that I like using #14 for him.

 

 

Just throwing something against the wall and seeing what sticks.....slow day...

 

Per Jeremy Davis, his estimated points per hour at even strength (1.97) is among the highest of those considered in the top 20: only Filip Zadina (2.40), Andrei Svechnikov (3.19), Oliver Wahlstrom (3.06), Joel Farabee (3.50), and Dominik Bokk (2.10) sit higher.

 

Most surprisingly, there isn’t a real thorough knock on Kravstov’s game. He’s considered defensively responsible, though it’s not his strength. The flaws worth pointing out are still important enough. Despite his size, Kravtsov doesn’t take advantage of his length. He’s a very slender 6’2, and this has a tangible effect on his effectiveness in the corners.

[AJgoal]

RE: draft charts, there's no official value chart that we know of. The two @OccamsRazor posted are two different models. The Broad Street Hockey model used actual draft pick - for - draft pick trades to try to determine a general value for those picks in trades. The other model is based on production of players taken at those draft positions.

 

That said, #14 and #19 aren't getting you to 4. Draft picks are extremely valuable when the draft rolls around, and high ones doubly so. The reality is that the team at 4 isn't likely to be willing to slide back 10 spots, even if they are getting a second first out of the deal - remember, the Eagles weren't able to go straight from their pick to 2 to get Wentz, they had to make a couple deals to get closer and acquire more capital first. 

[ruxpin]

16 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

Just throwing something against the wall and seeing what sticks.....slow day...

 

Per Jeremy Davis, his estimated points per hour at even strength (1.97) is among the highest of those considered in the top 20: only Filip Zadina (2.40), Andrei Svechnikov (3.19), Oliver Wahlstrom (3.06), Joel Farabee (3.50), and Dominik Bokk (2.10) sit higher.

 

Most surprisingly, there isn’t a real thorough knock on Kravstov’s game. He’s considered defensively responsible, though it’s not his strength. The flaws worth pointing out are still important enough. Despite his size, Kravtsov doesn’t take advantage of his length. He’s a very slender 6’2, and this has a tangible effect on his effectiveness in the corners.

 

He's raised a lot in the draft in the past few weeks.  I'm not opposed to drafting him.  I'm actually excited about it.  And it's becoming a lot less of a problem to me if they do grab him at #14.  I don't think he's still there at #19.

[AJgoal]

Just now, ruxpin said:

 

He's raised a lot in the draft in the past few weeks.  I'm not opposed to drafting him.  I'm actually excited about it.  And it's becoming a lot less of a problem to me if they do grab him at #14.  I don't think he's still there at #19.

 

I saw a mock with the Flyers picking Noel with Farrabee still on the board, and then Sandin with Kravtsov still on the board. I might hurt someone at my beer league game that night if that happens.

[OccamsRazor]

2 minutes ago, AJgoal said:

 

I saw a mock with the Flyers picking Noel with Farrabee still on the board, and then Sandin with Kravtsov still on the board. I might hurt someone at my beer league game that night if that happens.

 

 

Yeah i can't even imagine of having a young right side of Konecny, Allison, Kravtsov and Aube Kubel (just off the top of my head).

[ruxpin]

5 minutes ago, AJgoal said:

 

I saw a mock with the Flyers picking Noel with Farrabee still on the board, and then Sandin with Kravtsov still on the board. I might hurt someone at my beer league game that night if that happens.

 

I saw that.  I think I actually commented on it.   I wouldn't be shocked to see Noel drop to the 2nd round.    Noel at #14 is drafting malpractice.  The thing is, we kind of have similar to him already with Ratcliffe.   I don't want him.

 

If Farrabee and Kupari (still want him) are both there, I'm good either way.   If they get to #19 and Kravtsov and Sandin are both still there, then I have a problem.  I really like both.  I like the idea that one of the picks should be defense.  But I really do like Kravtsov.

 

I do NOT want Wilde.

[AJgoal]

2 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

Yeah i can't even imagine of having a young right side of Konecny, Allison, Kravtsov and Aube Kubel (just off the top of my head).

 

Won't be THAT young. Konecny - 27, Aube-Kubel - 28, Allison - 26, Kravtsov - 24. Would be all in their primes, though.

[AJgoal]

1 minute ago, ruxpin said:

 

I saw that.  I think I actually commented on it.   I wouldn't be shocked to see Noel drop to the 2nd round.    Noel at #14 is drafting malpractice.  The thing is, we kind of have similar to him already with Ratcliffe.   I don't want him.

 

If Farrabee and Kupari (still want him) are both there, I'm good either way.   If they get to #19 and Kravtsov and Sandin are both still there, then I have a problem.  I really like both.  I like the idea that one of the picks should be defense.  But I really do like Kravtsov.

 

I do NOT want Wilde.

 

I'm not sure about Kupari. I keep reading about his IQ being low. Don't know the Flyers would have him on their radar if that's the case.

[intheslot]

they to hit on some shooters gunners,back off the play makers.  just fill the net .

Lundestrom and Farabee are shoot first players .

 

[ruxpin]

3 minutes ago, AJgoal said:

 

I'm not sure about Kupari. I keep reading about his IQ being low. Don't know the Flyers would have him on their radar if that's the case.

 

I don't think the "low IQ" thing is fair.  But when I've suggested him previously, it was always with the caveat that it comes with some risk.   Maybe this is where the IQ thing is coming from, but his defensive game is not prime time yet.   Very creative and great offensive awareness and good hands, but that ice awareness and creativity, etc., so far doesn't seem to apply in his own end.   I think that will come, but there's nothing for me to base that "I think" on other than he's young and still time to be coached up.

 

I think in many ways the players likely to be taken 12-21 all are a wash with differing strengths and weaknesses.   Saying "BPA" in that bracket may not be as relevant as all that unless a top 10 projection suddenly slides for no apparent reason.  So, if Farabee is still there at #14, the fact he plays LW is probably the deciding factor for me.  I believe that's where we need the most help.   And then I'm hoping Colorado, Florida, or Columbus don't take Kravstov and the Devils don't take Sandin.

 

I'd like to come out of this with some combination of Kupari, Farabee, Kravstov, and Sandin (again, unless a top 10 somehow falls. If Dobson or Bouchard or even Ty Smith are sitting there, then I'm pausing).

[ruxpin]

6 minutes ago, intheslot said:

they to hit on some shooters gunners,back off the play makers.  just fill the net .

Lundestrom and Farabee are shoot first players .

 

 

I have such a hard time translating Scandinavian and Russian (and Czech, for that matter) stats.  I've had no eyes on Lundestrom, obviously, and only really know the name.   I'm suspicious of taking him in the teens, but if the Flyers pick him at #19 I think I'll just have to go on their wisdom.  They've been right under Hextall a lot more than they're wrong.  Lundestrom at #14 would be a real stretch to me.

 

This mock posted today has us taking Veleno at #19 and Denisenko at #14.   They have Farabee gone at #12.    If Kravstov and Kupari are both sitting there and they take Denisenko at #14 I don't think I'll be happy.  Again, Russian stats are harder for me to "translate," but he seems like the playmaker type that you are wanting to avoid.   He is a LWer, though, so maybe not a disaster.   

[OccamsRazor]

23 minutes ago, AJgoal said:

 

Won't be THAT young. Konecny - 27, Aube-Kubel - 28, Allison - 26, Kravtsov - 24. Would be all in their primes, though.

 

Well yeah if you're talking 6 years from now...but i think when guys get ready the Flyers will start moving guys out to clear space.

 

I think Jake has 3 years left in Philly tops. If he isn't moved by then. And TK is already on the top line.

 

So we'll see hard to say right here before the draft. But i think Hextall will move guys and get the most value he can for them.

 

Jake will be 29 before the season starts by that 3rd season he will be 31 with with 3 more years left on his deal....i'm hoping by then he still has some good trade value....fingers crossed.

[AJgoal]

4 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

Jake will be 29 before the season starts by that 3rd season he will be 31 with with 3 more years left on his deal....i'm hoping by then he still has some good trade value....fingers crossed.

 

Personally, I'm hoping that two of the prospects combined can match Jake's point production.