Buffalo Rick

Can anyone seriously see a cinch to get to the finals?  Does anyone feel confident i any team?  I know that you Flyer faithful have to be disgusted over the way the Flyers have finished.  Basically stinking up the joint.  I mean, they looked like they were in an now?  But in the East I figure that Florida, Boston, Carolina  and Toronto and maybe the Rangers are the true contenders.  I will stick my neck out on a limb and pick the Leafs to end Canada's absense from the finals.  Why not?  They are in the  top 4-5.  They have proven when they show up they can beat anyone. Florida are probably the favorites.  

The West is also crazy  I think the Blues are still alive?  If they can sneak in, look out!  But if not, Who are the favorites?  Golden Knights who have underachieved all year? The Blues can still knock them out with some help. Vancouver have really tailed off.  Edmonton has the star power but not much in keeping other teams out.  Dallas has the best record in the NHL and my Sabres fought them tooth and nail and lost a tough 3-2 contest, ending our season. But they did finish on a high note and need a couple of good moves by marble head Adams to get in next year.  Can Dallas reach the finals?  Does anyone really believe in them?  I do not.  Colorado has a shot. So does, Winnipeg.  Yes, just maybe.  I cant believe Casey Middlestadt has a ticket to the playoffs.  So for now my pick would be Toronto vs ????  Unsure about West until I know if the Blues make it.  The Kings?  How good are they really?  The Sabres beat them one night by a touchdown.  7-0.  Another team the Blues have a shot to run down.  I sure hope the Blues get in.

The bad news is a brutal schedule last 5 games.  Really need to beat Detroit today.  If they do then Washington, Pittsburgh, Philly, Detroit are all ripe for the picking.  But we have Florida, Tampa, Washington, Dallas next.   If they can beat these teams they could sneak in.  Tampa and Washington are up and down.  Dallas also in a way.  I don’t think I remember a year where things were so wide open. Is there a team anyone thinks is a cinch to win the cup?  This could be a year where some 8 seed knocks out a one. Yes I remember Boston last year.  

6 hours ago, SaucyJack said:

Not terribly brutal.  Others have games in hand on Buffalo, but you should win your next 2 home games (OTT, NJ).  In April, you get rivals Washington (twice!) and Philly at home.  

Your last week is tough, all good teams on the road, but an opportunity to play rival Detroit.  So yeah, tough, but not impossible.

Washington has played far better than I expected.  So have the Blues but it doesn’t look like they will get in?  I think they need Quinn back by weekend or it’s over.  I hope that bridge doesn’t affect anyone on the forum.  I wonder if the Orioles will open Thursday in light of this disaster?  It could be rained out anyway but I’m wondering what this might affect?  I’ve been to Camden Yards And the harbor but never to that bridge or area.  

The Sabres have a zero , 0, differential.  Only team . I just find it strange and the stellar play of Luukenen is the reason they are a middle of the pack team, not bad like Pittsburgh.  A game over 500 and recently have played well as they came out of Calgary 4-1 winners.  They have pretty much a brutal stretch to finish.  About ten games left.  Jack Quinn started skating last week so I’m hoping he returns to give the Sabres a shot in the arm.  About 3 teams are in striking range to try and sneak in.  But does it matter?  I think Florida, Boston, Toronto and the Leafs are the only real contenders in the East.  Rangers a long shot.  To me Florida is the most likely but I still believe the Leafs are dangerous if they can be consistent for a change.  The Sabres have to play them soon.  In the West it seems Vancouver has slipped a bit.  I’m starting to think Colorado is in the lead and red hot Nashville could make noise.  

I wouldn’t sell the Blues too short. They can make the playoffs and I think they will.   Then who knows what hell they might unleash!  They have been better than many expected 

On 5/27/2018 at 2:37 PM, pilldoc said:

 

Blues might have a new AHL home next season in San Antonio.  Meanwhile the AHL is looking to expand.  Currently the San Antonio Rampage are part of the Colorado Avalanche.  The thinking is to have the AHL expand to Colorado and move the Avs closer to home.  Nothing definite has bee signed.

I hadn’t heard this.  The AHL is tough to keep up with these days.

Well you Philly fans never have trouble finding something green to wear on St Patrick’s day!  

1 hour ago, Samifan said:

Don’t do it Rick, that’s how they get you! 

Yes,  and they lose to Detroit.  And the Capitals steal two out West.  They need a long streak .  Losing Quinn really set them back.  They at least finally have their goalie.  I just don’t know how Adams is still the GM.  He should be gone.  

On 3/15/2024 at 9:21 AM, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

Well well now...
Big win indeed!

Don't look now, but these Sabres are just 3 pts out of the final wild card spot....with the Islanders, Captials, and Wings ahead of them...and NEITHER of those teams being a lock for anything!

Definitely could be an interesting stretch of games for Buffalo as the season winds down!

I really am starting to believe.  I am hoping Quinn is close to returning as he could help.  Up on the Red Wings as I type.  They have lost 7 in a row and they were playing very well not that long ago.  Thompson is heating up.  Just scored and had 6 point game two back.  Luukenen has been solid.  The Penguins are crap now.   So we should finish ahead of them.  The Blues playing well too but not sure if they will get in? 

The Sabres win over the Islanders, 4-0, might be their biggest win of the year.  They are making it interesting.  The Red Wings are next, who they not only beat the other day but Detroit has lost 7 in a row.  It’s not impossible for the Sabres to run down a team like the Islanders for the final playoff spot.  Luukenen has really come through .

A nightmare for Bettman and NHL

36 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Which Schenn?

 

Brayden.  Blues

Not that it would matter, but looking at the standings I don’t think it’s impossible.  Washington and Islanders playing great so forget about catching them. I am not sure of timetable on Quinn but he would be a big lift.  Luukenen has been solid regardless of what happens.  So I think the Sabres have their goalie in Luukenen 

Trading Carter and Schenn were maybe worst trades your Flyers ever made.  

8 hours ago, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

 

Since the Sabres don't look like they will be making the playoffs, I think they did absolutely wonderfully in that trade.

Sure, Mittelstadt is having a career year (or close to it....would have to look more closely at the numbers), but how many times  have the Sabres given "the ball" to Mittel, and he hasn't lived up to it yet?
Your team did what most GM's SHOULD do.... trade away a still good player when he is on a 'high', like Mittelstadt is, if he has shown in the past that he is inconsistent at best.

And when the return is a potential steal in Bown Byram, well now....like I said...Sabres did wonderfully.

Dahlin, Power, Byram.
Those are three very, very dynamic type defenseman who are still very young, and while Dahlin is obviously the most NHL established of the three, once the other two learn to be true NHL'ers, the Sabres will have a very dangerous potential for offense comeing from that blue line to support the forward lines.

If those three young players can do well as part of the Buffalo defensive core, then all the Sabres would need to do is find established stay at home type defensemen (easier to acquire than dynamic puck movers like those guys), to compliment those young players.

But I even think those three young players can be more than just offensive types.
All three can turn out to be very good two way players.
If that happens, then this is a landslide win of a trade for the Sabres.....and Atlantic division rivals will have nightmares trying to contain the Buffalo top six AND attacks from the blue line, while having trouble getting through the neutral zone past those guys as well.

Not making the playoffs sucks for your team, I get it, and the regression is disappointing, but I think the team has done very well in trying to reset things moving forward again for next season, and having Byram in there with the two young blueliners you already have helps give optimism.

I still would fire Adams for how he handled the Eichel situation. But that aside, Making the playoffs just to be eliminated after on round really matters not that much.  My biggest worry moving forward would be the Sabres being able to sign these young guys without them being stolen from teams like the Rangers and such.  The injury to Quinn to me was huge  It kept them from moving forward this year.  He is a big piece in the lineup they now have and they could not afford to have him go down again.  They need to get a couple of good forwards.  Trade that big guy they got from the Wild.  And likely time for Okposo to go also.

On 2/26/2024 at 11:15 AM, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

Yea, Buffalo is technically under .500 still....and likely will stay that way.

If I am the front office, I examine every aspect of the team and see where the regressions were and see what can be done to not have this happen again next season.....and while they are at it, of course, try to get whatever they can for older players or expiring contracts they know they aren't really interested in keeping long term.
Get the analytics guys in on that too, they'd probably be a world of help looking at trends and helping to predict future performance based on personnel.

I think with 20+ games left, and the Sabres 11 pts behind the wild card spots, their best bet is to look past this season starting now.
The players on the ice, of course, should try to continue to win......their job isn't to worry about the future of the franchise and long term competitiveness. Only to win when they step onto the ice if they can.

Front office though? Definitely some hard looks need to be made at this team.

Well they just traded Middlestadt for a young defenseman.  Not sure what to think.  The Sabres are just young and players in early 20s are not going to win vs 30 plus yr old veterans most of the time.  Luukenen has been a bright spot.  Need a reliable backup as the loss to Winnipeg was first time I think I’ve ever seen Sabres start a goalie back to back nights.

The Blues will finish ahead of the Wild and I stand by they can beat anyone when Binnington is in

The Sabres are not out of it if you look at how well they have been playing and Luukenen has been fabulous. But now that they  have reached the elusive .500 they go to Florida and Tampa, the first being far tougher, and then Vegas and Jets are in. A split here and a run after that would give them a shot of running someone down.  But I sure wish Quinn had not been injured.  I have seen no moves by Adams.  Cant stand what he has done. The only smart thing was sticking with Luukenen

On 2/20/2024 at 7:27 AM, thegx.ca said:

Yeah Winnipeg is bigger threat than Dallas I say...but Blues without Berube as coach ain't going anywhere...

What happened to Berube?

On 1/20/2024 at 2:17 PM, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

Ok......my Schnauzers are now happy pups after taking a bit of a walk in this frigid weather and I am back.
Where was I?
Ohhhh right...the East.

Good Surprise, Metro Division:
Need I say it? The Philadelphia Flyers of course!
I think many expected John Tortorella to help 'fix' this team and get them all rowing in the same direction with his Iron Hand methods...but to be playing as well as they are, this quickly into Torts' tenure as Flyers' bench boss, AND, actually having a front office in Philly that helps the coach along by getting him what he wants in terms of style and personnel?

Nothing short of incredible, and the results clearly show on the ice.
One could argue that the Flyers are a talented team getting away with smoke n mirrors...that their youth will betray them, and the vets they have will sink back into old bad habits, but you know, I don't think so....

Not with Torts running the show.
His track record has shown that if he is allowed to do things "his way", then improvements will come. Sure, he will eventually grate on players, but like him or not, there is no denying the man always seems to get the most out of what he is given...and isn't afraid to ask for MORE out of his players and the front office who employs him.

The only place Torts was a true abject failure was in Vancouver years ago, when the front office there wouldn't budge on giving Torts free reign to do things his way, and he was saddled with a bunch of soft, set-in-their-ways vets who could always go crying to upper management if Torts hurt their feelings.

Other than that (TB, NYR, CBJ, and now PHI) he has been a big, big difference maker in how the team performs and has usually left the team in a much better position competitively, than how he found it.

I'd say Torts, like Tocchet, should be in the running for the Jack Adams (and he still might...a Flyer division win may put him over the top!), but overall, I think people expected Torts to improve the team, though maybe not this quickly, while I don't think many thought Tocchet could have the Canucks playing as well and as hard nosed as they have been all year, this quickly....so my nod still goes to Toch for the Jack!

Metro Bad Surprise?
New Jersey Devils, definitely.
They have way too good a roster to be a middle-of-the-pack Metro team (and not that long ago, they were closer to the bottom of the East than they were to the top!)...but they have had some big, big regression in goal especially, and some others who haven't performed up to their abilities, injuries of course have plagued them.

Just overall, they should be in the Stanley Cup conversation at this point and they would be lucky to even make the playoffs this year as things stand now.
Very disappointing, though, luckily for NJ fans, there is still time for them to right their ship!

Everyone else in the Metro? Probably where they should be....MAAAAYBE include the Penguins and Caps as mild bad surprises given their star playes on the rosters, although an equal case can be made for an aging core and lack of any real depth on both rosters as reasons why they are where they are.

Atlantic Division Good Surprise:

You know, no single team jumps out at me in the Atlantic as being a "good suprise". I think the teams playing well are where they should be, the teams playing just ok, also where they should be.
Maybe an argument can be made for the Florida Panthers as a 'Good Surprise'?
Mehhh, but not for me.

I never did think Florida was "lucky" to be in the Finals last year. People called it a Cinderella run last year, finishing the season as a low seed and getting to the SC Finals.
But, if anything, I feel they UNDERPERFORMED, and should have been higher in the standings, and their Finals appearance shouldn't have been viewed as an underdog run.

Well, there they are this year. Hanging with the "mighty" Bruins and Rangers at top of the East standings.
They are now doing this year, what they should have been doing last year, and what they were doing in the two prior seasons to that: Working their way to Stanley Cup contention, and possibly a SC win.

Although, they are currently struggling getting wins (4 game losing streak as of this posting), but still, no fanbase should want them in a 1st round match up in the post season. They could go and meet Carolina or the NY Rangers in the East Finals!

Perhaps another mild good surprise are the Montreal Canadiens.
Sure, they have trouble scoring goals, sure, they won't be making the playoffs, and yea, they still have lots of holes in that lineup...BUT, Marty St. Louis has those boys playing with lots of heart (ooooo, kinda like HE played, eh?), and they are NO 'gimme win' for any team who matches up across from them.
If a team doesn't show up to play the Habs, they will beat you. Simple as that.

Bad Surprise in the Atlantic?

Sigh...a couple of teams qualify for that here:
The Ottawa Senators and the Buffalo Sabres.
Those teams are filled with young, fast, very good talent, some solid vets, and up n coming goaltending...well, at least I THOUGHT they were.

But both the Sabres and especially the Senators, have looked so damned arse backwards many times this season, one has to wonder how the floor fell out so fast from under them this season.
They were touted as two teams who "had great offseasons" or "won the offseason", or whatever the H-E-double hockey sticks you want to call it....only to come out and play like they are gunning for their own version of a Connor Bedard in the freakin draft!

These two teams, along with the Red Wings, should have been pushing the ol standbys like the Leafs, Lightning, and even the Panthers for their playoff positions....but so far, only Detroit is playing the part correctly.

Buffalo and Ottawa are headed in the wrong direction...and to me, THAT is very disappointing and surprisingly....bad!
Maybe a step or two backwards before a full on catapult forward next year?
Errrrr, they better.....but that is one tough way to go about your business....

Looking at your observations, pretty well done but I think a team that must get more praise are the Seattle Kracken.  It’s pretty impressive how good they are at home and after a tough loss to open an East coast swing they beat the Islanders and then go into Boston and take them out!  I hope they get in.  The Blues also are impressive. Look at last nights results vs Edmonton.  As for my Sabres. they showed what they are capable of with 7-0 win over Kings.  Florida is playing maybe as good as anyone.  I already. Said, losing Jack Quinn was an injury the Sabres did not need.  The bright spot has been Luukenen.  He is now their best goalie and has earned the position.  Now I’m not sure if they fire Granato ?  I’d keep him, fire Adams and make a trade now!  Trade Krebs if anyone would have him and maybe they should consider tracing Power?

I have to see just where the Blues and Kracken sit in position to get in?  

You know, perhaps the sleeper in all of this are Winnipeg?  Look at their record.  Could sneak up on some teams in playoffs?  Might have the better goalie of the contenders in West?  Except for Binnington of course If Blues sneak in .  

Did I mention Toronto? Disregard.  Such a bunch of under achievers they are.  Austin Matthews!  They’re version of McDavid or Eichel.  And don’t they have Taveres?  Mitch Marner!  WTF?  PS. Never sell the Blues short when they have Binnington in net and Schenn!

On 2/1/2024 at 7:51 PM, JR Ewing said:

I mentioned this in the chatbox, but will comment on it here, re: the Canucks. There is such a profound misunderstanding of what is happening in Vancouver from a lot of people who watch and even report on hockey. There's a really easy way to measure what is, in extreme case, a sign of immense skill, but when the games pile up is basically puck luck: PDO. It's very simple, and is just shooting percentage + save percentage. There is a strong tendency for this number to be around 100, and almost all the time, most of the teams right around that number.

 

The Canucks have spent most of the season at around 105. For an idea of how high that is, here are the highest sustained PDOs in history:

1. 80s Oilers: 104.2

2. 70s Isles: 104.0

3. 70s Habs: 104.0

 

And, of course at #4: 2023-24 Vancouver Canucks, 103.9

 

It’s unlikely for an individual team to maintain a PDO that is this high above the norm. However, it is very likely that a team or two will have a high PDO and another team or two that will have a low PDO when we look at the league as a whole. The high PDO team and their fans always try to justify how the unsustainably high PDO is "really sustainable this time" due to factors x, y and z. Sometimes the PDO stays high for the year but invariably over the long term it regresses.

 

The whole argument every year boils down to "trust me bro, it's different this time". I don't want to hear about they're going to the dirty areas or committing to team defense. They give up more scoring chances than they create, and a team that wins doing that is getting by, not dominating.

 

The only way it's different this time is if these Canucks are one of the greatest hockey teams of all time, and I just dare anybody to say that.

I’ve never seen the likes of them!  Lol!  Just Kidding.  The final should be Edmonton and Florida but Tampa could have a say as well as Boston or Toronto in East.  But Florida is playing lights out    Remember the disgust you had the first month of the season?  Well your boys are well on their way now and the biggest fear is always injuries.  I’m so disgusted about us losing Quinn.  He and Paterka are very good together and we’re playing with Cousins.  I think we are dead without him unless that useless Adams who belongs with the Adams family, makes a trade.  My Eichel jersey, brand new, wrapped in plastic somewhere in my closet.   As for Edmonton, I’ll cheer against them as they have enough hardware from the days of The Great One , in those classic wars vs the Islanders.  

1 hour ago, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

I will say this, @Buffalo Rick, it really WOULDN'T surprise me if the SC Finals were the teams you mentioned.

Vancouver has been a surprise to everyone, but getting over that now that we are past the mathematical halfway point of the season, I'd say those guys really do seem built for SC contention:
They are fast, play better defense than they have in years, are hard nosed, can score, and then, when all else fails, have Thatcher Demko, seemingly at his best once again, to back them up.....and Casey DeSmith not doing a shabby job either in the relief role.

The Oilers and Panthers have been building towards a championship for several years now....they both have come close, or at least looked like they should have done better in recent past playoffs, but fell short in one way or another, and are now back at it.....Oilers, as you mentioned, ripping through the league right now, and Florida, looking like they've learned well from their lessons of failure before, and even righted themselves after playing rather lackluster hockey at points during this season.

I do also like the Hurricanes to possibly come out of the East, and of course, Boston is always a good pick.
NJ has regressed, I think Philly may make the playoffs (maybe?), but aren't SC ready yet, and I still am not sure I honestly buy into the Rangers, despite them having one of the better goalies in the game.

Out West, it is NEVER a good idea to discount the defending Champion Knights, who still look like they have the roster to make another go at it.
Colorado, even with their injuries as some of their 'whiny' fans will be quick to tell you  , are still a dangerous team.
And don't sleep on the Dallas Stars.....those guys have the ability to upset anyone...and they have been somewhat of a silent submarine so far this year.

Errrrm, sorry, but the Blues are NOT part of this picture.
They need either a full rebuild, or at least a soft rebuild, retool, whatever you want to call it, because right now they are too flawed to even think of Stanley Cups......no matter how loaded some fans think they might be.  

Can’t argue with your take,  I believe the Sabres could have snuck in had they not lost Quinn.  Killer injury.  Adams needs to make a trade based on this alone.  They were finally starting to come on and some of the lower seeds they could catch.  If they had Quinn.  His absence was a killer early.  This is a bad injury.  I’m sure Adams will do nothing.  Can’t stand him. 
I think your Tampa is playing well and can’t be ruled out either.  I’ll take them over Carolina .  Boston and Leafs can’t be ruled out.  I know what you’re saying about the Blues and realistically Seattle May have a better shot of being a dark horse than them,  but with Binnington in goal they are tough.  Schenn, Thomas, Parayko, and even Sammy Blaise.  The Kracken are tough to beat in their building and I like them.  They are now my third favorite 

19 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

Pretty much...they've won 16 in a row. The next highest current streak is 4. 

I think its safe to say, they're on fire!

Perhaps the panic JR had a couple weeks in has subsided?  Lol