What is the value of the 19th pick?

[yave1964]

  I got to thinking of it, looking at the Fiala trade where a B level prospect in Faber and the 19th pick in the draft were the return, it got me wondering, over the last decade who were the players taken at 19? It gives a chance to see what the actual value of the pick could be expected to be. I am going to actually go back 12 years because the last two the jury is still clearly out and it is unfair to include them in the sample size. I will list them here with the rest but wont include them much in the discussion

 

2021 Fedor Svechkov considered by most to be a reach, center still playing in Russia drafted by the Predators

 

2020 Braden Schneider, solid prospect who pushed his way onto the bottom pair with the Rangers by years end has upside.

_______

2019  Lassi thomson Senators good prospect for the Senators, got into some action last year with the Sens didnt impress but should stick with the Sens this year unless Sanderson has a great camp and beats him out. Probably a middle six puck mover 30-35 point potential.

 

2018 Jay O'Brien Flyers pick turning pro this year, was solid in Boston College elite program, not sure where he will be in three years. Likely in Philly but every other first from his class is in the NHL already and K'Andre Miller/Rasmus Sandin both drafted after are NHL starters on the back end for playoff teams. Whispers are he may be headed for bust category.

 

2017 Josh Norris drafted by the Sharks partial payment for Erik Karlsson had 35 goals and did a great job in the dot for the Sens last year. Established top six probably first line forward.

 

2016  Kieffer Bellows. Looking more and more like a potential bust, been given every chance but had 6 goals total with the Isle last year and is rumored to be on the block

 

2015 Yevgeni Svechnikov The bad Svechnikov, drafted by the Wings, he has low hockey IQ, can fire the puck a million miles an hour with no idea where it is going, indifferent on defense, now with the Jets and probably looking for new team. Horrible selection

 

2014 Anthony DeAngelo Drafted by the Bolts, didnt sign, traded to the Coyotes, didnt sign, traded to the Rangers for Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta signed, had a brilliant offensive year got in trouble for being an @ss in his OHL days, released and signed with Carolina had a brilliant year as a power play specialist last year. Defense is lacking which is important when you play defense, but he can move the puck/

 

2013 Kerby Rychel  Bluejackets took him absolute bust. Makes Bellows and Svechnikov look like Ovie and Sid. Slow enough to be timed with a sun dial. Retired at 25 years old in 2020 with 3 career goals.

 

2012 Andrei Vasilevskiy One of these things is not like the others, lol. The best goalie of his generation, two cup wins, four times in the finals, Vezina hardware, simply brilliant goalie.

 

2011 oscar Klefbom was showing signs that he might be a solid top pair defender, at the worst middle pair, he had three good but not great years with the Oilers before injuries to his shoulder have likely ended his career. 

 

2010 Nick Bjugstad I loved him in college at Minnesota, thought he would be a star, right combo of power size and shooting, he settled into a third line role with Florida showing flashes he could be better but concussions and other injuries have robbed him of much of his career. Hanging on by his fingernails to an NHL career.

 

sO WHAT EXACTLY COULD THE WILD EXPECT AT 19 BASED OFF THE LIST OF PLAYERS DRAFTED AT THAT POSITION? r

 

WHO AMONG THE OTHER NUMBER 19'S WOULD YOU TRADE EVEN UP FOR FIALA? Vasilevskiy of course but he is an outlier, I think it is fair to say he is the exception in this category, Hell you might trade every player listed above for him.

 Norris maybe. probably, because he plays a more demanding position and plays it very well.

DeAngelo no, although he is a unique quality player.

 

WHO WERE THE BUSTS? Svechnikov, Rychel, Bellows, Klefbom not really but kinda as he career ended so soon, Bjugstad is a disappointment because of what could have been versus the shadow of the player he looked to be.

 

THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON.... Lassi Thomson and Jay O'Brien. At least one will be a bust, I am not particularly high on either at this point.

 

  So summery, Fiala for the 19th pick, Vas clearly the best player in the round possibly ever, Norris a real NHL top centerman, DeAngelo a skilled yet flawed puck mover on the back end, five guys who were either bombs or at the least dissapointed, and two prospects who are close to becoming suspects. 

 

After looking at this, I like the deal even more for the Kings.

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

10 minutes ago, yave1964 said:

After looking at this, I like the deal even more for the Kings.

 

To fairly look at this i think you have to look beyond the actual picks. You have to look at it like the Flyers Nolan Patrick pick it isn't JUST about who you get with the pick - you have to look at the guys that COULD have been chosen. As i will give you an example.

 

Like with Nolan Patrick sure he busted but to properly weigh the pick well we'd all have to agree the Flyers would have been better had they taken Makar hindsight or not that is how the pick should be judged.

 

For another example the 2018 draft Flyers took Jay O'Brien.

 

But we have to agree that K'Andre Miller who has already 155 games under his belt for 44 points would have been a better pick for the Flyers or even an Isac Lundestrom would have better a better selection. I haven't looked at the other draft just using this as one example.

[yave1964]

1 hour ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

To fairly look at this i think you have to look beyond the actual picks. You have to look at it like the Flyers Nolan Patrick pick it isn't JUST about who you get with the pick - you have to look at the guys that COULD have been chosen. As i will give you an example.

 

Like with Nolan Patrick sure he busted but to properly weigh the pick well we'd all have to agree the Flyers would have been better had they taken Makar hindsight or not that is how the pick should be judged.

 

For another example the 2018 draft Flyers took Jay O'Brien.

 

But we have to agree that K'Andre Miller who has already 155 games under his belt for 44 points would have been a better pick for the Flyers or even an Isac Lundestrom would have better a better selection. I haven't looked at the other draft just using this as one example.

Absolutely see what you are saying, completely agree with that. My point or points come down to this

 

of ten players selected two would be safe to say are better than Fiala.

DeAngelo is a fine player but not someone I would ever in a million years trade even up for Fialo.

Bjugstad and Klefbom lost their careers to injury, Klefbom quickly Bjugstad is still around but as a shell of the player the Cats drafted.

Two are still young, already both are suspect, neither is going to be as good as Faila

The other three are pure busts.

 

 So two of the ten are better, eight of the ten would never in a million years have a chance at being traded for Fiala. So based off that, the Wild IMHO got a B level prospect and a 20 percent chance of getting a solid return at or better than Fiala. 

 

If you look at ten years worth of second picks in the draft, along with Patrick, there are the following players:

Laine

Patrick

Reinhart

Barkov

Seguin

The really good Svechnikov

Kakka

Byfield

Matty Beniers

Eichel

Ryan Murray

Landeskog

 

It is fair to say of those 12, two (Murray and Patrick) are busts, Kakka is putting off a foul odor, two in Beniers and Byfield arent yet fully established by scouts are  but the rest, 7 of 12 in Laine, Reinhart, Barkov, Svechnikov Seguin, Eichel,  and Landeskog none would be traded for Fiala even up let alone throw in a b level prospect.

 

  So this quicky study is not who MIGHT have been taken but who WAS. The Wings wasted a pick on the Bad Svachnikov and a couple of picks later Boeser was taken by Vancouver which still makes me face palm, lol but not my point, it is a quick study of who WAS taken, the odds of getting it right.

 

2nd pick, last 12, 7 studs,two damn good prospects, 75 percent chance of getting a better player than Fiala.

19th pick, 2 studs out of ten, only a 20 percent chance of getting a better player than Fiala.

 

So IMHO 2 is too much of an ask for Fiala, if he had been offered even up for the 2nd pick the Devils likely would have politely said no. The Kings at 19 knowing they want to contend now and have an eighty percent chance taht they will not do better in the draft than Fiala anyway, did the right thing with this trade.

 

I know the Wild were up against it with Fiala going to walk after next year but IMHO they might have been better served by waiting into the start of the year. The 19th pick is just too much of a crapshoot and not worth what they gave up.

 

 

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

@yave1964

Basing it off your list (outside of the obvious home run in Vasilevskiy, and perhaps DeAngelo and Norris), it doesn't seem to bode well for the team picking at that position.
Of course, each draft is its own thing, and much depends on WHO is doing the picking and what their philosophy for drafting is, but the pattern shown here is definitely NOT on the side of the team picking 19th....IF we were to keep things as black n white as that.

I do agree a bit with @OccamsRazor in that it is more than just about who the pick is directly, but I agree with him for a different reason: Many times the guy the team picks is flipped elsewhere (either right away, shortly after, or more after) for someone else who DOES work out for that team.

Completely off the wall here, but I tend to look at the DeAngelo trade away from TB for instance, as a blessing in disguise. 
He was traded to the Yotes for a pick which turned out to be Libor Hajek, whom the Bolts then packaged with some other players to land Ryan McDonagh and JT Miller from the Rangers.
So in that crazy chain of events, the 19th pick for the Bolts turned into stalwart SC champion McDonagh, and a good JT Miller who then was traded to Vancouver for even more prospects and/or picks.
Yea, yea...I am reaching...lol....but you get the idea.  
Not to mention the Bolts got themselves away from a major headache with DeAngelo after likely thinking they could initially "rehab" him. Yikes...

Anyways, since the 19th pick doesn't seem to have a particularly illustrious track record, if the Minnesota Wild, as we talked about in one of the trade threads, were to package it with their own 20 something pick for a pick in or just past the top 10, I think they should go for it.

I am willing to bet Bill Guerin is MUCH better at this draft thing that Chuck Fletcher ever was for the Wild. I think Bill would do well with the 19th, but probably even BETTER by trading it and their own for an even higher one.

Edited June 30, 2022 by TropicalFruitGirl26

[OccamsRazor]

27 minutes ago, yave1964 said:

IMHO 2 is too much of an ask for Fiala,

 

No I wasn't saying ask for 2nd pick. I was just using Patrick as an example of not who was actually picked but WHO could have been....I'm sure if we do it again Makar would have been a Devil.

[mojo1917]

53 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

No I wasn't saying ask for 2nd pick. I was just using Patrick as an example of not who was actually picked but WHO could have been....I'm sure if we do it again Makar would have been a Devil.

I think yave was talking about the other rumored trade which was Fiala to the Devils for #2.

[OccamsRazor]

10 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

I think yave was talking about the other rumored trade which was Fiala to the Devils for #2.

 

Oh ok. I overlooked that or misread that thanks for clarification.

 

In fact didn't see that offer.

 

HHhhhhmmmmm. That is interesting.

 

And a different idea. I will think on it.

[IllaZilla]

So…if the 19th pick tends to be garbage, why would a team drafting 8 give up their pick for the 19th pick and the 24th pick?

 

While it would be smart for the Wild to do it, wouldn’t it be pretty dumb for the team that owned that 8-9-10 pick?

[yave1964]

Just now, IllaZilla said:

So…if the 19th pick tends to be garbage, why would a team drafting 8 give up their pick for the 19th pick and the 24th pick?

 

While it would be smart for the Wild to do it, wouldn’t it be pretty dumb for the team that owned that 8-9-10 pick?

19 is not necessarily garbage. Vasilevskiy is the goalie of his generation, Norris is a damn fine top line center, DeAngelo is a solid but flawed player. Klefbom was on his way before injuries shortened his career. My point was at 19 you are unlikely to get equal value for Fiala, you have about a 20 percent chance of getting a Fiala or better at 19. 

 

  The Wings lack depth in the organization, it is getting better but I truly could see Yzerman trading down in this draft because there isnt much of a difference between players who will go 8 to 20 or so. Two kicks of the can from a team in exchange for moving up if a team has their eye on a certain player. There is always a team that falls in love with someone and is deathly afraid that someone else will get him first, if so they look for a partner to move up. Not saying the Wild are that team but there is always someone.

[OccamsRazor]

On 6/30/2022 at 8:04 PM, IllaZilla said:

So…if the 19th pick tends to be garbage, why would a team drafting 8 give up their pick for the 19th pick and the 24th pick?

 

While it would be smart for the Wild to do it, wouldn’t it be pretty dumb for the team that owned that 8-9-10 pick?

 

No it's not Claude Giroux was the 22th pick in the draft.

 

Travis Konecny was the 24th pick.

 

Luca Sbisa was the 19th pick.

 

Mike Richards was the 24th pick.

 

Justin Williams was the 28th pick.

 

Simon Gagne was the 22nd pick.

 

Brian Boucher was the 22nd pick.

 

Chris Simon was the 25th pick.

 

Now i just did the Flyers history of picks back to 1990.

 

Point is you can find value at 19.

 

The question really is - will you???

 

So the pick has value certainly but at the end of the day with talent on the board what you do with the pick is up to you.