Stars preview- are they a legit cup contender?

[yave1964]

LAST SEASON 47-21-14 108 POINTS SECOND IN DIVISION. Beat the Wild in six relatively easy games, bested the Kraken in a tough seven game series, lost the conference final to eventual cup winner Vegas in six hard fought games. Plus 67 goal differential the best in the Western conference

 

ADDITIONS Matt Duchene came aboard after being bought out in Nashville. Sam Steel joins the bottom six, Craig Smith provides depth. 

 

A quick aside, one thing about this Jim Nill team that strikes me is how many players can play not only up and down the lineup but can play center or wing as well. Hintz, Pavelski, Steel, Duchene, Seguin, Benn, Dellandrea. It gives coach Deboer so much flexibility when it comes to setting lines. In an age when teams are desperate for center help they have seven or eight guys who can plug into the middle or on the wing giving them a massive advantage over most other teams.

 

SUBTRACTIONS Domi and Glendening moved on after the season, Domi to Toronto and Glendening to Colorado. About it.

 

IN THE PIPELINE Dellandrea is a sure fire real deal forward who played in the NHL al year last year and is a very real possibility to have a breakthrough season. Kid Logan Stankoven may play in the AHL this year but with a great showing could crack the team and is a fantastic playmaker and a top notch prospect. Thomas Harley will be a top four defender this year and if he gets a chance to work the first power play will surprise with his offensive talent. Matej Blumel is a real deal scorer but has been in and out of the doghouse in the AHL because he is a bit of a floater but the talent is certainly there. Mavric Bourque may have to return to the AHL because there is simply no room for him at the NHL level but the kid is a fantastic pivot who should slot into a 2C role in the NHL for a decade or more.

 

  Usually when a team drafts so late as Dallas always seems to do they slip into mediocrity because of it but Nill was the true brains behind the great Redwings drafts that Holland always got the credit for (this as soon as Nill left, Holland crapped the bed with his picks for years before moving on) and he contnues to bring his fantastic drafting skills with him to Dallas. Jason Robertson 39th, Oettinger late in the first, Hintz a second rounder. The new batch of kids is talented and pushing up against the older players. This team is very talented top to bottom.

 

SO, ARE THEY CUP CONTENDERS? God yeah, no doubt about it. I think they win the Division this year and battle Edmonton into the final days for the best record in the West. Top flight goalie? Check. Elite minute munching defenseman and defensive depth? Check. Forwards coming out of the woodwork, throwing four lines at you? Absolute check. There is no reason that this club cannot contend for years to come. Even with Pavelski, Seguin and Benn being much closer to the end than the beginning the organizational depth is astounding, all three could call it a career right now and the team might slip a bit for a year while the kids acclimated to the NHL but then they would be right back on top. I have crazy mad respect for Nill and think this is one of the very best organizations from top to bottom. They very easily could win a cup this year. 

[J0e Th0rnton]

2 hours ago, yave1964 said:

LAST SEASON 47-21-14 108 POINTS SECOND IN DIVISION. Beat the Wild in six relatively easy games, bested the Kraken in a tough seven game series, lost the conference final to eventual cup winner Vegas in six hard fought games. Plus 67 goal differential the best in the Western conference

 

ADDITIONS Matt Duchene came aboard after being bought out in Nashville. Sam Steel joins the bottom six, Craig Smith provides depth. 

 

A quick aside, one thing about this Jim Nill team that strikes me is how many players can play not only up and down the lineup but can play center or wing as well. Hintz, Pavelski, Steel, Duchene, Seguin, Benn, Dellandrea. It gives coach Deboer so much flexibility when it comes to setting lines. In an age when teams are desperate for center help they have seven or eight guys who can plug into the middle or on the wing giving them a massive advantage over most other teams.

 

SUBTRACTIONS Domi and Glendening moved on after the season, Domi to Toronto and Glendening to Colorado. About it.

 

IN THE PIPELINE Dellandrea is a sure fire real deal forward who played in the NHL al year last year and is a very real possibility to have a breakthrough season. Kid Logan Stankoven may play in the AHL this year but with a great showing could crack the team and is a fantastic playmaker and a top notch prospect. Thomas Harley will be a top four defender this year and if he gets a chance to work the first power play will surprise with his offensive talent. Matej Blumel is a real deal scorer but has been in and out of the doghouse in the AHL because he is a bit of a floater but the talent is certainly there. Mavric Bourque may have to return to the AHL because there is simply no room for him at the NHL level but the kid is a fantastic pivot who should slot into a 2C role in the NHL for a decade or more.

 

  Usually when a team drafts so late as Dallas always seems to do they slip into mediocrity because of it but Nill was the true brains behind the great Redwings drafts that Holland always got the credit for (this as soon as Nill left, Holland crapped the bed with his picks for years before moving on) and he contnues to bring his fantastic drafting skills with him to Dallas. Jason Robertson 39th, Oettinger late in the first, Hintz a second rounder. The new batch of kids is talented and pushing up against the older players. This team is very talented top to bottom.

 

SO, ARE THEY CUP CONTENDERS? God yeah, no doubt about it. I think they win the Division this year and battle Edmonton into the final days for the best record in the West. Top flight goalie? Check. Elite minute munching defenseman and defensive depth? Check. Forwards coming out of the woodwork, throwing four lines at you? Absolute check. There is no reason that this club cannot contend for years to come. Even with Pavelski, Seguin and Benn being much closer to the end than the beginning the organizational depth is astounding, all three could call it a career right now and the team might slip a bit for a year while the kids acclimated to the NHL but then they would be right back on top. I have crazy mad respect for Nill and think this is one of the very best organizations from top to bottom. They very easily could win a cup this year. 

Wyatt Johnston has the it factor. He scored 24 goals and 41 points at age 19 and has high IQ and his takeaways remind me of Mark Stone. Potential Selke caliber future. Just a gem. They definitely mean to keep him at C. hell, he ended the year as 2nd line C on a cup contender. His FOW will need work, but there is always that adjustment period from juniors and he did damn good for a rookie 19 year old.

 

He's living with the Pavelski's.

 

I don't think he will explode this year, but he has the potential to knock Hintz down to 2nd line in 2025 and line up with Robertson when Pavelski's contract is up. For now when Hintz has his usual fragile injuries, they will probably keep putting Pavs back at C and rotating up one of Seguin or Benn.

 

The thing I noticed most last year is, he was lining up mostly with Benn and Dellandrea to start the year, but when musical chairs started on line 2 and 3, he moved up to line 2 and stayed there..... stayed on 2nd line and Benn would get bumped for Seguin or Dadonov

 

Dellandrea was drafted 3 years earlier(13th overall 2018) and higher in the 1st round, but his icetime reduced as the season progressed, while Johnston's increased(23rd overall 2021).

 

Robertson/Pavelski/Hintz

Benn/Johnston/Dadonov

Marchment/Seguin/Duchene

Steel/Faska/Smith

 

I don't see a universe where Stankoven cracks that Roster this year unless a couple of injuries happen early and they give him a 9 game tryout.

 

Harley will get a crack beside Suter on PP2, but not PP1 with Heiskanen there. Not with Deboer coaching.

[thegx.ca]

If not a cup contender they pretty damn close even with losing Domi and I think they'll keep adding more pieces this year too...

[Math]

@yave1964 @J0e Th0rnton I hope you guys are as good in predictions as in fantasy lol.

 

Very good points as always. As I tend to search for scratches on a marble floor, the Stars still lack a legit top-4 Dman to give flexibility and options on the PP. They didn't have the cap space to do that and the market was dry anyway. At least they didn't overpay some declining vet but on the other hand they didn't consider a Suter buyout, which I was ok with (probably next year). Suter should never see any PP time ever and I hope Harley will fill this role if he's trending the right direction like he was during last season's playoffs. It's still a true pain in the àss and a waste to see Heiskanen being forced to play on his weak side because of Suter. But DeBoer LOVES him so there's that...

 

The offense offers more options and strength. Benn had a surprising rebound year and has a good connection with Dadonov. About "Big Daddy", I'm more relying on him for the postseason as he tends to be a bit of a lazyass when it doesn't count. Still, a significant improvement over Gurianov (thanks Montréal). Faksa had a terrible season and it can't be worse this year. I'm more worried about Seguin: it's heartbreaking to see him play. He's not the same after his hip surgery. Slow, losing every battle, trying to do things he can't do anymore. It's sad because he's truly trying, but the body doesn't follow and it's a miracle if he can play at that level. His role in the future should be limited to take some important Fo and stay in the crease to go for garbage goals and deflections in the Pavelski style. But at $9.85M AAV for the next four years, it hurts. But I don't think he will make it to the end and he will be likely put on the LTIR list at some point. Marchment was a big disappointment, let's hope for a rebound. 

 

In the net, I hope Öttinger won't be overworked like he was last season. He's still a force and an elite NHL goalie, but he was barely average during the playoffs. I hope Wedgewood gets more starts but he needs to be more consistant.

 

About the prospects: Stankoven should stay in the AHL unless the Stars face major and numerous injuries. I'm curious about Stranges, which is under the radar but showed pretty good skills with the London Knights. I have high hopes on Bichsel too with the objective to see him with the big club within one or two seasons and become a sort of Häkänpää of riches to be paired with Heiskanen.

 

On a side note, I will try to apologize to Johnston's parents. I met them in Centre Bell last October when the Stars played in Montréal and I told them stuff like "well you know, dont be disappointed if he's sent back to the Juniors after his 9-game tryout, it's a learning process, maybe he can have a spot later on, blah blah blah..." And yeah, the more Johnston was scoring, the more I felt bad.

[J0e Th0rnton]

On 8/29/2023 at 11:59 AM, Math said:

@yave1964 @J0e Th0rnton I hope you guys are as good in predictions as in fantasy lol.

 

Very good points as always. As I tend to search for scratches on a marble floor, the Stars still lack a legit top-4 Dman to give flexibility and options on the PP. They didn't have the cap space to do that and the market was dry anyway. At least they didn't overpay some declining vet but on the other hand they didn't consider a Suter buyout, which I was ok with (probably next year). Suter should never see any PP time ever and I hope Harley will fill this role if he's trending the right direction like he was during last season's playoffs. It's still a true pain in the àss and a waste to see Heiskanen being forced to play on his weak side because of Suter. But DeBoer LOVES him so there's that...

 

The offense offers more options and strength. Benn had a surprising rebound year and has a good connection with Dadonov. About "Big Daddy", I'm more relying on him for the postseason as he tends to be a bit of a lazyass when it doesn't count. Still, a significant improvement over Gurianov (thanks Montréal). Faksa had a terrible season and it can't be worse this year. I'm more worried about Seguin: it's heartbreaking to see him play. He's not the same after his hip surgery. Slow, losing every battle, trying to do things he can't do anymore. It's sad because he's truly trying, but the body doesn't follow and it's a miracle if he can play at that level. His role in the future should be limited to take some important Fo and stay in the crease to go for garbage goals and deflections in the Pavelski style. But at $9.85M AAV for the next four years, it hurts. But I don't think he will make it to the end and he will be likely put on the LTIR list at some point. Marchment was a big disappointment, let's hope for a rebound. 

 

In the net, I hope Öttinger won't be overworked like he was last season. He's still a force and an elite NHL goalie, but he was barely average during the playoffs. I hope Wedgewood gets more starts but he needs to be more consistant.

 

About the prospects: Stankoven should stay in the AHL unless the Stars face major and numerous injuries. I'm curious about Stranges, which is under the radar but showed pretty good skills with the London Knights. I have high hopes on Bichsel too with the objective to see him with the big club within one or two seasons and become a sort of Häkänpää of riches to be paired with Heiskanen.

 

On a side note, I will try to apologize to Johnston's parents. I met them in Centre Bell last October when the Stars played in Montréal and I told them stuff like "well you know, dont be disappointed if he's sent back to the Juniors after his 9-game tryout, it's a learning process, maybe he can have a spot later on, blah blah blah..." And yeah, the more Johnston was scoring, the more I felt bad.

We tend to be lol.

 

I mean I whiff on a lot of my projections, but look like a genius on others.

In Fantasy im known for sucking at drafting in the first few rounds and my picks looking stupid and then having better 4th-9th round picks and a good eye for youth on the waiver wire haha

[radoran]

On 8/29/2023 at 10:59 AM, Math said:

I hope you guys are as good in predictions as in fantasy lol.

 

You can't have Robertson, Hintz, or Oettinger.

 

I'll take 73 points from Heiskanen if you don't want them.

 

[MoleMan]

Most teams I root for are extremely up and down (looking at you LSU football, Brewers, etc.) but the Stars are looking so solid it is almost dull to listen to or watch news about them. Solid as a rock, phenomenal depth. The veteran players are playing at their best too (I was disappointed in Benn's leadership as a Captain in the playoffs but that might be nitpicky). The future looks bright for Texas hockey. I see the Devils and the Stars in the final and a steamrolling of my friends in my fantasy league. Best goal horn and best goal song as well. Go Stars!

[Brewin Flames]

 

[MoleMan]

9 minutes ago, Brewin Flames said:

 

The gf is not ready for me to be blasting this starting preseason. Soft listeners need to have their earplugs ready.

[OccamsRazor]