Soooo....Jones or Mac

[flyercanuck]

After watching Nathan MacKinnon will his team to a Memorial Cup Championship and Seth Jones be really just another player on a great team, does your opinion change as to who goes #1 overall?

MacKinnon is basically a full year younger than Jones (11 months). Jones would likely have been nowhere near the #1 choice a year ago. In head to head games, MacKinnon dominated Jones, putting up 6 goals and 3 assists in 2 games, and constantly stripping him of the puck. MacKinnon was first star twice and 2nd once in 4 games in the tournament. Jones never starred in 5 games. MacKinnon was easily the MVP of the Memorial Cup.

Jones has great NHL size . His skating is good for his size as is his talent level. Of course as a defenceman, it will likely take him a few years to be NHL comfortable and a few more to reach his potential. In the biggest tournament of his life he wasn't bad, but he certainly wasn't "great". MacKinnon has explosive speed, great drive and awesome skill. He flat out dominated the entire tournament, especially in head to head games versus Jones. I'd say #1 defencemen are a bit tougher to come by then #1 centers, but neither has proven themselves as of yet.

So if you're the Avalanche, do you take Jones, or MacKinnon 1st overall?

(not as a Flyer)

Edited May 28, 2013 by flyercanuck

[Polaris922]

I take MacKinnon. I've felt Jones is being overrated from the start though so that's just me. MacKinnon took the puck away from him several times, resulting in at least one goal from the highlights I saw. MacKinnon already seems to be a game breaking talent.

[flyercanuck]

@Polaris922

I guess the whole idea how tough top defencemen are to find makes him a valuable commodity. But to me it's a huge difference in age and development, and Mac still comes out on top. There were a lot of great players in that tournament including 8 or more that should go first round, and 5 of the top 10. But MacKinnon stood out way over all of them.

[VanIsleFlyer]

Personally, I'd take MacKinnon based on what he has done all year and especially after the Memorial Cup. From the Av's perspective, I'd take Jones based on the Denver connection and media relations, as well as the fact that they already have a good young forward group and need to imrpove the D. Additionally, the type of D-men that Jones is projected to be is even more rare, so if I'm the Av's GM, I take Jones with the first pick but man is that a tough decision!

[flyercanuck]

@VanIsleFlyer

It's a nice year to be picking 2nd, isn't it?

[VanIsleFlyer]

It sure is, unlike OUR year, when we had two choices, JVR or Turris.... and Drouin is going to be one heck of a player too! Man that guy has hands!

Edited May 28, 2013 by VanIsleFlyer

[flyercanuck]

@VanIsleFlyer

Even after Drouin, (who does have great hands) Barkov and Nichushkin sound like pretty good prospects.

[yave1964]

I take Seth Jones for one reason, read this next line carefully, it blew my mind:

THE AVALANCHE BLUE LINERS SCORED FOUR GOALS ALL YEAR.

Really, for a full season, they scored four goals from the back end.

With an exciting bunch of forwards, this club desperately needs a defenseman who can move the puck and score. Jones and Mackinnon are close, but the Lanche desperately need a defenseman.

[jammer2]

In a pefect develpmental scenario, the best that Jones can turn out to be is a Larry Robinson type....the worst he can be is a Victor Hedman type. Personally, I had Seth a bit ahead going into the Mem Cup, but his stunning lack of physicality made the decison an easier one.

The worst that McKinnon can be is a Matt Duchene type, the best is a Joe Sakic/Stevie Y kinda superstar who dominates the league in every stat catagory imagineable. Using youngsters to compare may not be the best way to cross reference here, but you guys get the general drift....I go Nate all day long here. There is a better chance for Seth to be run of the mill average than Nate. Seth can be great to slightly above average, but Nate can be pure superstar to a point per game guy, I honestly believe that's the lowest he can slip, a 75 point second line center with wicked wheels and moves. In Nate I see a 120 point guy in 3-4 years from now. Nate is far less of a gamble.

[yave1964]

In a pefect develpmental scenario, the best that Jones can turn out to be is a Larry Robinson type....the worst he can be is a Victor Hedman type. Personally, I had Seth a bit ahead going into the Mem Cup, but his stunning lack of physicality made the decison an easier one.

The worst that McKinnon can be is a Matt Duchene type, the best is a Joe Sakic/Stevie Y kinda superstar who dominates the league in every stat catagory imagineable. Using youngsters to compare may not be the best way to cross reference here, but you guys get the general drift....I go Nate all day long here. There is a better chance for Seth to be run of the mill average than Nate. Seth can be great to slightly above average, but Nate can be pure superstar to a point per game guy, I honestly believe that's the lowest he can slip, a 75 point second line center with wicked wheels and moves. In Nate I see a 120 point guy in 3-4 years from now. Nate is far less of a gamble.

Jammer I agree Mac is hard to pass up but the Avalanche has a defense that is offensive, and not in a good way. When you add in the ties of Jones to the Colorado area, as good as Mac will be and Drouin too, Jones is an absolute no brainer.

[flyercanuck]

@yave1964

So are you saying they take Jones because they need defence, or he'll be the better player? Cause taking a player you feel won't be as good due to need is insane IMO.

[yave1964]

@yave1964

So are you saying they take Jones because they need defence, or he'll be the better player? Cause taking a player you feel won't be as good due to need is insane IMO.

I am saying that Jones and Mackinnon at different positions are even or close to even value.

I think Mac will be a top line forward for a decade.

I think Jones will be a top pair blue liner for a decade.

I think the Avalanche have much more of a need for a defenseman than a forward.

Therefore, Jones IMHO is the logical, almost only possible pick for the Avalanche

[flyercanuck]

@yave1964

I don't think you can go wrong with either. But I think Macs first few years in the league will be a lot more dynamic.

[yave1964]

@yave1964

I don't think you can go wrong with either. But I think Macs first few years in the league will be a lot more dynamic.

We both know forwards adjust quicker to the speed of the game than defensemen, much more often than not. But look at the Oilers, all those first picks in the draft, forwards with skill coming out of the whazzoo, and they would kill for a defense. Schultz is gonna be special but was a minus 17 in a shortened season, while banging in 27 points. You cannot tell me that if the Oilers had an option as good as Jones that he wouldnt have been chosen last year, or the year before.I think Mac is special, let me make that clear, but defense wins championships.

[flyercanuck]

@yave1964

Quality in draft can make a big difference too. I'm pretty sure MacKinnon ends up a better player than RNH or Yakupov (same with Jones) There are years (like this) when the 2nd pick may end up better than the first, or just as good. One year Pittsburgh picks 2nd and gets Malkin. We end up with the choice between JVR and Kyle Turris.

Picking Erik Johnson first overall isn't going to get you the same impact as picking a Crosby, and he's a defenceman. I don't care how many forwards you've already got.

[yave1964]

@yave1964

Quality in draft can make a big difference too. I'm pretty sure MacKinnon ends up a better player than RNH or Yakupov (same with Jones) There are years (like this) when the 2nd pick may end up better than the first, or just as good. One year Pittsburgh picks 2nd and gets Malkin. We end up with the choice between JVR and Kyle Turris.

Picking Erik Johnson first overall isn't going to get you the same impact as picking a Crosby, and he's a defenceman. I don't care how many forwards you've already got.

Yeah, I get your point. I have been looking over the first picks in the draft who were defensemen:

Erik Johnson- Not a bust-yet but close First forward Jordan Staal

Chris Phillips steady as you go First Forward J.P. Dumont

Bryan Berard-injuries derailed- first forward Chad Kilger

Ed Jovanoski solid, unspectacular first forward Radek Bonk

Roman Hamrlik Solid, steady, again. First Forward Alexei Yashin

A mixed bag, at best. The last superstar defenseman taken with the first pick goes way,way back to Denis Potvin FORTY YEARS AGO in 1973.

Now skipping the last five years because the jury is out, starting in 2007 the first forward (First pick in draft) and first defenseman are:

Patrick Kane and Thomas Hickey

Crosby and Jack Johnson

Ovechkin and Cam Barker

Eric Staal and Ryan Suter (M.A. Fleury actually number one, tossed out of equation as a goalie)

Rick Nash and Jay Bouwmeester

Damn. I think I have proven your point, the forwards on this list include:

Crosby, Ovie, Yashin, a couple of Staals, Nash and Kane. Wow. As your top six plus one, you are a instant cup contender.

And the BEST of the defenseman are:

Jack Johnson, Jovo, Bouwmeester Hamrlik and Phillips. Solid, but even with these guys in their prime you would need help to win a cup.

Canuck, looking at these guys, it is impossible for me to stick with my original argument to draft Jones for need and equal potential. The first pick, regardless of need based strictly on past results and statistical evidence has to be Mackinnon. Thanks for giving me the nudge and getting me to look this up.

[flyercanuck]

@yave1964

I just think it's a lot easier picking a good forward than defencemen or goalies. I've been saying that with this up coming draft...I'll be happy with the Flyers if they pick a good NHLer. I don't care if he's a defenceman. I'd prefer a good defenceman, but would rather yet another center than a bust on D.

edit: I also think Jones is a better prospect than a lot of those Dmen you mentioned.

Edited May 31, 2013 by flyercanuck