The Lecalvalier impact, a cap perspective

[AJgoal]

Beware. Lots of numbers and whatnot ahead. Potentially very boring stuff. Note, this is not an endorsement or panning of the Lecavalier signing. I'm going back and forth.

We've heard the numbers: The Flyers are now approximately $320,000 over next year's cap. They still need a backup goaltender. They could use a winger and/or an upgrade on defense. Something has to give. I looked at the numbers earlier, and Aziz's comments backed up my theory that the conventional wisdom, from a cap perspective, seems to be basically incorrect. So here we go:

FORWARDS

Scott Hartnell ($4.750m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)

Vincent Lecavalier ($4.500m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m)

Scott Laughton ($1.107m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)

Zac Rinaldo ($0.750m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / Tye McGinn ($0.775m)

Jay Rosehill ($0.675m) /

DEFENSEMEN

Kimmo Timonen ($6.000m) / Mark Streit ($5.250m)

Chris Pronger ($4.941m) / Braydon Coburn ($4.500m)

Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)

Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m) / Bruno Gervais ($0.825m)

Marc-Andre Bourdon ($0.613m) /

GOALTENDERS

Steve Mason ($1.500m)

OTHER

Buyout: Oskars Bartulis ($0.100m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)

(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)

SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $66,678,522; BONUSES: $2,800,000

CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $421,478

The first thing you'll notice is that the cap payroll is 66,678,522, but the cap is 64,300,000 yet the Flyers are projected under the cap. That's because performance bonuses, while included in the payroll, are subtracted out. The second is that the Flyers are now $421, 478 under the cap, when yesterday they were over. That's because Jason Akeson was being projected onto the cap prior to the Lecavalier signing. Now his $900,000 has been moved down to the minors.

Note a few other numbers. Bruno Gervais will be assigned to the AHL before the start of the season. So that's $825,000 off the cap number. I fully expect Laughton to play in the AHL if elligible, rather than in juniors, now that Lecavalier is here. So that's approximately $1.1 million more. And then there's Pronger on LTIR.

In order to flesh this out, we need to make a few assumptions. We know Gus was qualified, as well as Wellwood, Marshall, and Lauridson. Since Lauridson and Wellwood made less than $660,000 last year, their QOs are at 110% of their previous salaries, $650k and $580K, respectively, or $715,000 and $635,000. Since Gus and Manning both made $900,000, they qualify at 105%, $945,000. I would expect Lauridson's and Gus' final salaries to come in at about $750,000 and 1 million, respectively. Wellwood and Manning will likely be signed at a number close to their QO, and since I don't expect either to be on the opening day roster, the final number isn't too important.

We still need to fill out the roster. For that, I re-sign Gagne at $2 million a year, and try to sign Anton Khudobin from Boston to be your backup, say at $1 million a year. He's only played 21 games at the NHL level, but fared well both with Boston and the Wild. Now your roster looks like this:

FORWARDS

Scott Hartnell ($4.750m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)

Vincent Lecavalier ($4.500m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m)

Simon Gagne ($2.000m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)

Zac Rinaldo ($0.750m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / Tye McGinn ($0.775m)

Jay Rosehill ($0.675m)

DEFENSEMEN

Kimmo Timonen ($6.000m) / Braydon Coburn ($4.500m)

Mark Streit ($5.250m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)

Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)

Oliver Lauridsen ($0.750m) / Erik Gustafsson ($1.000m)

Chris Pronger ($4.941m) /

GOALTENDERS

Steve Mason ($1.500m)

Anton Khudobin ($1.000m)

OTHER

Buyout: Oskars Bartulis ($0.100m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)

(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)

SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,884,356; BONUSES: $2,800,000

CAP SPACE (24-man roster):- $1,784,356

You're over the cap, but comfortably below Pronger's salary, so LTIR will cover that. Ideally, I would move Meszaros, but not from a cap perspective - I want to give Gus his playing time and keep Lauridson as the 7th Dman. In regards to the offseason cap, you will have to count Gervais and about $250,000 of Laughton's contract, but McGinn will count less against the cap, since his salary will be pro-rated. So there shouldn't be any offseason cap issues.

So another shoe may drop, but it doesn't HAVE to. Again, I'm not sold on the move, but if this is how the roster shakes out, and Vinny comes in as a veteran leader for the younger guys, I can be ok with it.

Edit: So much for me trying to spell players' names right. Where did that darn "L" come from?

Edited July 3, 2013 by AJgoal

[Jmdodgesrt4]

Yes. That was my point in another post. They are actually fine depending on their goaltender choice. Also when it comes to g and his contract. Say he gets 7.5 against the cap. That's 4 m more then this season. Schenn will make the same in total salary or even slightly less then the 3.1 contract now since most are bonus awarded. Coots will get a slight raise from his current salary, unless he has a break out year. So with all three of those players your looking at adding 6 million more to the next offseason. Your removing kimmo and mez for 10 mil in savings. So that leaves you with 4 million extra space. This is not including the rumored increase in the cap from anywhere between 6-10 million. So really they are looking at 10-14 million in available space to add another dman at that point or goalie. Or both. To me there is no point to trade for yandle or another dman like that. Unless we are talking coby, coots, read and 1st for jones or weber we soon stand pat.

[flyerrod]

@AJgoal

Nice breakdown!! Thank you for doing the leg work.

[LegionOfDoom]

All is great in Flyers Cone-tree!(that's country for the less inclined) We aint broke back mountain.

[flyercanuck]

@AJgoal

Laughton is either a Flyer or a Gennie. He's too young for the A.

[AJgoal]

@FC, thanks. I wasn't sure about that.