Top Defensive Players by Defensive Errors - Leafs Leaders - 2014-2015

[WordsOfWisdom]

 
RATE = TTOI / DE = Minutes played between defensive errors.
TTOI = MIN for goalies.
 
 
WHAT IT IS:           A new statistic that I am proposing for the NHL.    
 
WHAT IT ADDRESSES:        The need for a statistic to measure defence only.    
 
HOW TO SCORE IT:       Quick FYI: A defensive error (DE) is a poor defensive play (or defensive play not made) that directly results in a goal being allowed at either even strength or while on the power play. If a goal is allowed while short-handed, the player in the penalty box is automatically charged with the DE. This supercedes all other guidelines below.       In terms of deciding who to give the DE to, follow these guidelines:      

 

1. If a goal is allowed while short-handed, the player charged with the penalty (not the player serving the penalty) is automatically charged with the DE. This supercedes all other guidelines below. NOTE: Also applies to delayed penalty calls, assuming the extra attacker can get involved in the play. NOTE: If two different players on the same team are penalized at the same time (creating a 2-man advantage for the other team which they score on), the DE will be applied to the player that exits the penalty box first. (Team captain's selection.) This is due to the liklihood of the team scoring again on the 1-man advantage and thereby catching the second player with a DE as well. It is also an extremely rare event.      

 

2. The goaltender on a "soft" goal or penalty by the goaltender only. (Bad angle goals, long distance goals, and so on.) Avoid penalizing the goaltender if at all possible. The goaltender is not expected to be able to stop one-timers, break-aways, deflections, screened shots, and so on.      

 

3. A player that creates an obvious give-away or clearly causes an odd man rush against, from which team mates cannot recover their positioning and defend appropriately. IMPORTANT: The key here is whether the team can recover their defensive positioning or not. If they can, any goal scored thereafter is the result of a subsequent defensive breakdown and no longer applies to this guideline.       

 

4. The last skater involved in the play that could have prevented the goal with proper defensive coverage but didn't -- unless #3 applies. (Example: A defenceman is not expected to be able to stop a 2-on-1 and neither is the goalie.)      

 

5. A goal must be the end result. One DE per goal. No more. No less. The intent is to have a clean, simple, predictable, statistically "boxed/clamped" value that is equal to total goals allowed.    
 
SUMMARY:          The player that gets the DE is the player MOST responsible for the goal being allowed. Period.
 
I have been tracking this stat for three months and thought I'd share the results with you. (Along with other posts to come of course.)

[yave1964]

@WordsOfWisdom

 

A lot there to digest, interesting topic. welcome to the forum!

 

Your Leafs are the hottest team in Hockey right now, wow have they righted the ship in the last month when they had those two embarrassing losses and then snubbed the fans. They seem to have pulled together, it might have been the best thing that happened to the club.

[hf101]

@WordsOfWisdom

 

Welcome.  

I fixed up some of the formatting for you to make it a bit easier to read.

 

I like that stat category as it identifies the players who take lazy penalties that kill a teams momentum.  

[WordsOfWisdom]

@WordsOfWisdom

 

Welcome.  

I fixed up some of the formatting for you to make it a bit easier to read.

 

I like that stat category as it identifies the players who take lazy penalties that kill a teams momentum.  

 

Thanks for the support. 

 

Here are the game by game results thus far as well (showing the DE assignments):

 

Oct. 8: TOR vs MTL       1. Bernier (TOR)   2. Galchenyuk (MTL)   3. Emelin (MTL)   4. Rielly (TOR)   5. Van Riemsdyk (TOR)   6. Eller (MTL)   7. Percy (TOR)       Final score: 4-3 MTL.     Oct. 11: TOR vs PIT       1. Bernier (TOR)   2. Kessel (TOR)   3. Holland (TOR)   4. Malkin (PIT)   5. Kessel* (TOR)   6. Kadri (TOR)   7. Depres (PIT)       * Kessel served a "too many men" penalty, but may not have caused it. Could not determine.       Final score: 5-2 PIT.     Oct. 12: TOR vs NYR       1. Moore (NYR)   2. Polak (TOR)   3. Hunwick (NYR)   4. Girardi (NYR)   5. McDonagh (NYR)   6. Rielly (TOR)   7. Lundqvist (NYR)   8. Stempniak (NYR)   9. Bernier (TOR)       Final score: 6-3 TOR.     Oct. 14: TOR vs COL       1. Hejda (COL)   2. Reimer (TOR)   3. Reimer (TOR)   4. Stuart (COL)   5. Barrie (COL)       Final score: 3-2 (OT) TOR.     Oct. 17: TOR vs DET       1. Polak (TOR)   2. Gardiner (TOR)   3. Winnik (TOR)   4. Abdelkader (DET)   5. Franson (TOR)       Final score: 4-1 DET.     Oct. 18: TOR vs DET       1. Franson (TOR)       Final score: 1-0 (OT) DET.     Oct. 21: TOR vs NYI       1. Santorelli (TOR)   2. Hamonic (NYI)   3. Lupul (TOR)   4. De Hann (NYI)   5. Leddy (NYI)   6. Tavares (NYI)   7. Hickey (NYI)       * By far the most difficult game to score thus far.       Final score: 5-2 TOR.     Oct. 25: TOR vs BOS       1. Clarkson (TOR)   2. Franson (TOR)   3. Phaneuf (TOR)   4. Gardiner (TOR)   5. Hamilton (BOS)       Final score: 4-1 BOS.     Oct. 28: TOR vs BUF       1. Foligno (BUF)   2. Neuvirth (BUF)   3. Weber (BUF)   4. Meszaros (BUF)       Final score: 4-0 TOR.     Oct. 31: TOR vs CMB       1. Johnson (CMB)   2. Johnson (CMB)   3. Dano (CMB)   4. Frattin (TOR)   5. Cracknell (CMB)       Final score: 4-1 TOR.     Nov. 1: TOR vs CHI       1. Shaw (CHI)   2. Carrick (TOR)   3. Bozak (TOR)   4. Oduya (CHI)   5. Richards (CHI)       Final score: 3-2 TOR.     Nov. 4: TOR vs ARI       1. Gardiner (TOR)   2. Reimer (TOR)   3. Van Riemsdyk (TOR)   4. Gormley (ARI)   5. Murphy (ARI)       Final score: 3-2 ARI.     Nov. 6: TOR vs COL       1. Bernier (TOR)   2. Johnson (COL)   3. Redmond (COL)   4. Polak (TOR)   5. Percy (TOR)   6. Barrie (COL)       * A shootout goal does not result in a DE.       Final score: 4-3 (SO) COL.     Nov. 8: TOR vs NYR       1. Holland (TOR)   2. Allen (NYR)   3. Duclair (NYR)   4. Kostka (NYR)   5. Phaneuf (TOR)   6. Robidas (TOR)   7. Rielly (TOR)   8. St. Louis (NYR)   9. Hunwick (NYR)       Final score: 5-4 TOR.     Nov. 9: TOR vs OTT       1. Rielly (TOR)   2. Ceci (OTT)   3. Van Riemsdyk (TOR)   4. Karlsson (OTT)   5. Holland (TOR)   6. Phillips (OTT)   7. Legwand (OTT)   8. Stone (OTT)       * Van Riemsdyk took a delayed penalty, and the extra attacker scored.       Final score: 5-3 TOR.     Nov. 12: TOR vs BOS       1. Rask (BOS)   2. Bergeron (BOS)   3. Rask (BOS)   4. Griffith (BOS)   5. Hamilton (BOS)   6. Bernier (TOR)   7. Paille (BOS)       Final score: 6-1 TOR.     Nov. 14: TOR vs PIT       1. Phaneuf (TOR)   2. Franson (TOR)   3. Crosby (PIT)       Final score: 2-1 PIT.     Nov. 15: TOR vs BUF       1. Clarkson (TOR)   2. Reimer (TOR)   3. Winnik (TOR)   4. Mitchell (BUF)   5. Gardiner (TOR)   6. Delauriers (BUF)   7. Phaneuf (TOR)   8. Phaneuf (TOR)       Final score: 6-2 BUF.     Nov. 18: TOR vs NSH       1. Bernier (TOR)   2. Phaneuf (TOR)   3. Polak (TOR)   4. Rielly (TOR)   5. Holland (TOR)   6. Polak (TOR)   7. Rielly (TOR)   8. Santorelli (TOR)   9. Gaustad (NSH)   10. Jones (NSH)   11. Holland (TOR)       Final score: 9-2 NSH.     Nov. 20: TOR vs TB       1. Killorn (TB)   2. Gardiner (TOR)   3. Carle (TB)   4. Bishop (TB)   5. Morrow (TB)   6. Winnik (TOR)   7. Killorn (TB)       Final score: 5-2 TOR.     Nov. 22: TOR vs DET       1. Andersson (DET)   2. Polak (TOR)   3. Nyquist (DET)   4. Nyquist (DET)   5. Dekeyser (DET)       Final score: 4-1 TOR.     Nov. 26: TOR vs PIT       1. Rielly (TOR)   2. Clarkson (TOR)   3. Comeau (PIT)   4. Crosby (PIT)   5. Franson (TOR)   6. Crosby (PIT)   7. Holland (TOR)       Final score: 4-3 (OT) PIT.     Nov. 29: TOR vs WSH       1. Kuznetsov (WSH)   2. Niskanen (WSH)   3. Backstrom (WSH)   4. Robidas (TOR)   5. Alzner (WSH)   6. Hillen (WSH)   7. Bernier (TOR)   8. Ward (WSH)       Final score: 6-2 TOR.     Dec. 2: TOR vs DAL       1. Lehtonen (DAL)   2. Jo. Benn (DAL)   3. Hemsky (DAL)   4. Gardiner (TOR)   5. Goligoski (DAL)   6. Gardiner (TOR)   7. Jo. Benn (DAL)   8. Franson (TOR)       Final score: 5-3 TOR.     Dec. 4: TOR vs NJ       1. Franson (TOR)   2. Gelinas (NJ)   3. Robidas (TOR)   4. Zidlicky (NJ)   5. Lupul (TOR)   6. Holzer (TOR)   7. Kadri (TOR)   8. Ruutu (NJ)       Final score: 5-3 NJ.     Dec. 6: TOR vs VAN       1. Bonino (VAN)   2. Miller (VAN)   3. Burrows (VAN)   4. Sbisa (VAN)   5. Phaneuf (TOR)   6. Van Riemsdyk (TOR)   7. Edler (VAN)       Final score: 5-2 TOR.     Dec. 9: TOR vs CGY       1. Hudler (CGY)   2. Jones (CGY)   3. Holland* (TOR)   4. Russell (CGY)   5. Giordano (CGY)       * Holland jumped on early, Lupul served the TOO MANY MEN penalty.       Final score: 4-1 TOR.     Dec. 10: TOR vs DET       1. Rielly (TOR)   2. Dekeyser (DET)       Final score: 2-1 (SO) TOR.     Dec. 13: TOR vs DET       1. Van Riemsdyk (TOR)   2. Andersson (DET)   3. Tatar (DET)   4. Mrazek (DET)   5. Ericsson (DET)       Final score: 4-1 TOR.     Dec. 14: TOR vs LA       1. Kopitar (LA)   2. Brown (LA)   3. Gardiner (TOR)   4. Reimer (TOR)   5. Gardiner (TOR)   6. Lewis (LA)       Final score: 4-3 (SO) TOR.

 

Stay tuned for more game by game results.

[WordsOfWisdom]

@WordsOfWisdom

 

A lot there to digest, interesting topic. welcome to the forum!

 

Your Leafs are the hottest team in Hockey right now, wow have they righted the ship in the last month when they had those two embarrassing losses and then snubbed the fans. They seem to have pulled together, it might have been the best thing that happened to the club.

 

Thanks for having me!

 

It has been a hectic day. I was at the HFBoards (a rival hockey forum) previously but one of the mods started removing my posts when I disagreed with him on something. I didn't violate any of their forum rules. No name calling. No nothing. All I did was disagree with his post. He deleted my post. So I asked him why and he docked me more points. I posted a new message and then he banned me.   I know it's probably hard to imagine without being there to see the posts yourself but it's true. So I figured it was time for a change. New forum. New people. New result.

 

So yeah. A quick Google search for other Hockey forums and that's how I arrived here.  It's good to be here.

 

When I get a chance, I'll clean up that table so it's more readable. There is so much to explain and so many posts I will need to make to clarify everything. All of your questions will soon be answered.

 

Yes, Leafs are playing very well right now. It's fun to watch. 

[WordsOfWisdom]

I'm experiencing some formatting difficulties which I apologize for. Unfortunately I cannot edit my original post to correct it. The game-by-game DE stats should read like a list with each game as a separate list. Perhaps that can be fixed later. 

 

Here is the current list for defensive errors sorted by error rate:

 

 

 

Legend:

 

DE = Defensive errors

TTOI = Total Time On Ice in minutes = (ATOI-MM + (ATOI-SS / 60)) * GP

RATE = TTOI / DE

If DE = 0, RATE = TTOI

For goalies, TTOI = MIN

For RATE, higher is better. (Players want to be at the top of the list, not the bottom.)

 

 

Dec.14 TOR vs LA

1. Kopitar (LA)
2. Brown (LA)
3. Gardiner (TOR)
4. Reimer (TOR)
5. Gardiner (TOR)
6. Lewis (LA)

Final score: 4-3 (SO) TOR.

 

 

[Podein25]

Welcome Leafs fan @WordsOfWisdom

 

You will find a friend in me whenever Bernier is starting. Although I hate the Leafs, I own him in my keeper league. Right now I hate the Flyers more than the Leafs 'cause they really are an awful team. At least Toronto is interesting to watch. 

 

Not sure how I feel about your new-fangled stat category. Need to digest a bit more....

 

Cheers

[WordsOfWisdom]

Welcome Leafs fan @WordsOfWisdom

 

You will find a friend in me whenever Bernier is starting. Although I hate the Leafs, I own him in my keeper league. Right now I hate the Flyers more than the Leafs 'cause they really are an awful team. At least Toronto is interesting to watch. 

 

Not sure how I feel about your new-fangled stat category. Need to digest a bit more....

 

Cheers

 

Some common questions I get are:

 

Q: What about all the errors that don't result in goals? You're not tracking those.

 

A: True. My belief is, to track every possible error made in a game would be an impossible task. Like give-aways and other such stats, the number would be an approximation at best. The good news is, according to the laws of statistics, we don't need it anyway. How does that work? Well, the same percentage of total errors will result in a goal. It's difficult to explain why this is so, but it has to do with statistical sampling and the inferences that can be drawn on large data sets from small random samples. The bottom line: The players that commit the most defensive errors overall will be charged with the most defensive errors using this stat. This is called the "Law of Averages".

 

Q: A player that takes a penalty isn't reponsible for the goal being allowed. Is he?

 

A: They're the player most responsible because they put their team in a position where they could not properly defend. Even stats like +/- don't punish players for allowing goals while short-handed. Why do it? To account for all goals allowed. DE = GA. Every goal allowed is assigned to the player most responsible for it.

 

Q: What if two players are responsible?

 

A: Currently (for this season's trial run), only the player most responsible gets the DE. For next season, a split will be allowed where two players could each be given 0.5 of a DE if both players are equally guilty.

 

Q: What if the goalie allows a soft goal on the penalty kill?

 

A: Currently, the player in the box gets the DE because the rule is absolute. For next season, an ammendment will be made to allow for the goalie to either assume full blame or share blame on a soft goal, even while short-handed.

 

Q: What if penalties are offsetting?

 

A: Then the player in the box is not penalized when a goal is scored.

 

Q: What about games played, time on ice, etc.?

 

A: It's important to look at DE the same way you look at a stat like goals: in context. 50 goals in 82 games is great. 50 goals in 50 games is out of this world. The RATE takes into account games played and average time on ice per game to arrive at the number of errors the player is making compared to their minutes played. A player with a RATE = 120 is making one defensive error (that results in a goal) every 120 minutes of ice time. The higher the rate, the better the player is defensively.

 

Q: What if you are biased?

 

A: I post all of my results and game-by-game DE assignments. Any bias would be immediately revealed.

 

Q: Isn't this all subjective?

 

A: The guidelines I've listed remove subjectivity as much as possible.

 

Q: How do you ensure accuracy and getting the DE assignment right?

 

A: I watch the game and review the video on all goals to the same or greater level of detail that video review crews do on controversial goals.

 

 

[Commander Clueless]

To be honest, I'm surprised JVR isn't higher on this list.

 

He's having a very confusing season. He's looked lazier lately than he ever has as a Leaf and his line is struggling defensively (worse than normal, even), and yet is somehow on pace for a career season.

 

It's just...both good, and frustrating at the same time.

[WordsOfWisdom]

To be honest, I'm surprised JVR isn't higher on this list.

 

He's having a very confusing season. He's looked lazier lately than he ever has as a Leaf and his line is struggling defensively (worse than normal, even), and yet is somehow on pace for a career season.

 

It's just...both good, and frustrating at the same time.

 

You have to remember, DE (Defensive Errors) only cover the defensive part of the game. JVR is having a good season offensively, but he is currently middle of the pack on the Leafs defensively. 

 

Here are the latest results:

 

 

Latest game:

 

Dec.16 TOR vs ANA

1. Getzlaf (ANA)
2. Andersen (ANA)
3. Franson (TOR)
4. Stoner (ANA)
5. Fistric (ANA)
6. Kadri (TOR)
7. Maroon (ANA)
8. Lindholm (ANA)

Final score: 6-2 TOR.

[WordsOfWisdom]

The usual suspects fail the Leafs as the team loses 4-1 to Carolina. 

 

Dec. 18 TOR vs CAR

1. Gardiner (TOR)
2. Rielly (TOR)
3. Dwyer (CAR)
4. Franson (TOR)
5. Franson (TOR)

Final score: 4-1 CAR.

 

 

[Commander Clueless]

Why does Carolina always have our number? It doesn't matter how good or bad either team is, they just destroy us constantly it seems.

[brelic]

Why must each goal be the result of a defensive error? I think this is an interesting idea, but disagree with the premise.

[WordsOfWisdom]

Why does Carolina always have our number? It doesn't matter how good or bad either team is, they just destroy us constantly it seems.

 

Well if the Leafs can put it behind them and get back in the win column next game it will be easily forgotten.

[WordsOfWisdom]

Why must each goal be the result of a defensive error? I think this is an interesting idea, but disagree with the premise.

 

The philosophical idea behind it is that a goal in hockey is the result of one or more mistakes made by the defending team. If everyone did their job, and did it perfectly all the time, then it would be impossible to score. Therefore the best defensive players (according to this stat) are the players that commit the fewest mistakes relative to the amount of time they play.

[WordsOfWisdom]

Latest game results:

 

Dec.20 TOR vs PHI

1. Read (PHI)
2. Laughton (PHI)
3. Kessel (TOR)
4. Holzer (TOR)
5. Grossman (PHI)
6. Kadri (TOR)
7. Bernier (TOR)
8. Kessel (TOR)
9. Phaneuf (TOR)
10. Phaneuf (TOR)
11. Emery (PHI)

Final score: 7-4 PHI.

 

Comments:

 

Leafs get crushed by the Flyers.

 

A bad night by the Leafs leadership group: Kessel and Phaneuf were both horrendous tonight and Bernier looked very shaky in goal.

[WordsOfWisdom]

Latest Defensive Error Totals sorted by Rate:

 

 

Legend:

 

DE = Defensive Errors

ATOI = Average Time On Ice per game

TTOI = Total Time On Ice = ATOI  x GP

TTOI = MIN (for goalies)

RATE = TTOI / DE = Average minutes played between defensive errors (higher is better)

For players with 0 DE, RATE = TTOI (for simplicity)

 

 

Comments:

 

Kessel and Kadri both go for a tumble. No surprise that Gardiner was a healthy scratch: he's the Leafs worst defender (making one error every 60 minutes of ice time) and doesn't contribute anything offensively either. Phaneuf's lousy game wipes away nearly two week's worth of rock solid play.

[WordsOfWisdom]

Dec. 21: TOR vs CHI

1. Holzer (TOR)
2. Bozak (TOR)
3. Clarkson (TOR)
4. Gardiner (TOR)

Final score: 4-0 CHI.

 

Comments:

 

Holzer: Tipped the puck into the Leafs net.

Bozak: Covered the wrong guy. (Franson already had him.) Bozak's guy left wide open.

Clarkson: Penalty.

Gardiner: Lost his man.

 

Another tough loss for the Leafs. The winning streak starts to look like ancient history.

[WordsOfWisdom]

Dec. 21: TOR vs CHI

1. Holzer (TOR)
2. Bozak (TOR)
3. Clarkson (TOR)
4. Gardiner (TOR)

Final score: 4-0 CHI.

 

Comments:

 

Holzer: Tipped the puck into the Leafs net.

Bozak: Covered the wrong guy. (Franson already had him.) Bozak's guy left wide open.

Clarkson: Penalty.

Gardiner: Lost his man.

 

Another tough loss for the Leafs. The winning streak starts to look like ancient history.

 

After further video review, one minor correction to last night's game:

 

1. Holzer (TOR)

1. Santorelli (TOR)

 

I had a situation similar to this earlier in the season. While Holzer accidentally tips it into his own net, Santorelli doesn't cover his man at the point, and the shot was not tipped by a Chicago player. In fact, Holzer is the only player in a decent defensive position, and he has two Blackhawks players to deal with in front of the Leafs net.

 

Therefore, Santorelli is on the hook for the first goal.

 

Updated team totals:

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

I can't remember the last time the Leafs had a shutout! 

 

Dec.23: TOR vs DAL

1. Goligoski (DAL)
2. Daley (DAL)
3. Garbutt (DAL)
4. Klingberg (DAL)

Final score: 4-0 TOR.

[WordsOfWisdom]

We're back from the Christmas break!

 

Comments: Leafs look awfully weak defensively in their first game back. A very winnable game slips away.

 

Dec. 28: TOR vs FLA

1. Olsen (FLA)
2. Polak (TOR)
3. Phaneuf (TOR)
4. Barkov (FLA)
5. Huberdeau (FLA)
6. Mitchell (FLA)
7. Reimer (TOR)
8. Kadri (TOR)
9. Franson (TOR)
10. Franson (TOR)

Final score: 6-4 FLA.

[WordsOfWisdom]

It appears as though the Leafs have entered the usual "toe-stubbing" portion of their season. Another game where defeat was snatched from the jaws of victory.

 

Dec. 29: TOR vs TB

1. Hedman (TB)
2. Killorn (TB)
3. Lupul (TOR)
4. Bozak (TOR)
5. Franson (TOR)

Final score: 3-2 TB.

[WordsOfWisdom]

Updated team totals:

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

Dec.31: TOR vs BOS

1. K. Miller (BOS)
2. Polak (TOR)
3. Chara (BOS)
4. K. Miller (BOS)
5. Franson (TOR)
6. Kadri (TOR)

Final score: 4-3 (SO) TOR.

 

Comments:

 

Nice to pick up the win. Franson with the own goal, and Kadri on the bad line change caused an odd-man rush that resulted in the goal.

[WordsOfWisdom]

Jan.2: TOR vs MIN

1. Kessel (TOR)
2. Spurgeon (MIN)
3. Komarov (TOR)
4. Winnik (TOR)

Final score: 3-1 MIN.

 

Latest team totals: