Player Value Index

[brelic]

I'm toying around with developing a Player Value Index (PVI), and need some help and input.

 

Here's the general concept:

1. I'd like to end up with one value that tells you how Player X is performing relative to the average of his peers (more on that in a bit) and relative to his salary.

 

For example: 

Let's say we are comparing 200 players, and we calculate the average PVI (or median depending on the distribution) to be 0. That's the PVI for the average player at a given salary. A player with a PVI of 0 would indicate that you will get expected value for the salary he's paid. A PVI above 0 indicates the player is performing above his salary level (compared to his peers), and below 0 indicates the opposite - he's not living up to his end of the bargain. Dead weight.

 

To further illustrate, Tarasenko would likely have a higher PVI value than Tavares even if Tarasenko has fewer points based on better bang for buck. The difference between their hockey performance is much smaller than the gap in their salaries. 

 

Obviously there are a lot of details missing here, but that's the general idea. Think Moneyball but not quite.

 

2. It might be better to end up with a PVI for different categories of players. 

 

In other words, it probably would make little sense to have superstars like Tavares and Ovechkin compared directly to role players like Bergeron, Chimera, Bellemare.

 

I mean, for argument's sake, let's say guys like Chimera and Couturier have a higher PVI (better bang for buck) than Kessel and Hossa. I think it would be foolish to think you could build a team of Chimeras and Couturiers and have better overall performance without having a few top tier players. But maybe not... what do you think?

 

Given that, what would be a logical way of partitioning the players? Position is the first logical division - forward, defense, goalie.

 

Should it go deeper? How would you categorize them? We probably wouldn't want too many categories.

 

3. There are so many things that can go into the index - what to choose?

 

There are the obvious ones, like goals, assists, points. But what about shots on goal per 60 minutes played? Shots blocked? Powerplay goals allowed per shorthanded minutes played? Powerplay points, shorthanded points. Game winning goals. Hits. 

 

At what point is it no longer useful to just throw things in there?

 

What 3 or 4 categories would you choose that can best define how good a player is? 

 

We might quickly realize that different categories are necessary. A guy like Bellemare on the Flyers is very useful on the penalty kill (don't know his actual efficiency though), but gets very few points. Any winning team is going to need guys like this. So what's the best way to capture that?

 

In the end...

 

I want to end up with something simple for a reader to grasp. One value. A PVI of 0.6 or 1.2 is clearly better than a PVI of -0.3.

 

I'd love to hear some thoughts, suggestions, criticisms. As far as I know, there is no such meta-index for NHL players yet. If done well, I think it could be very useful in trading, drafting, free agency, etc. 

[JR Ewing]

This may be of interest to you:

 

http://www.hockey-reference.com/about/point_shares.html

[brelic]

This may be of interest to you:

 

http://www.hockey-reference.com/about/point_shares.html

 

Thanks. Very interesting.

 

I wonder if I could piggyback on a lot of that work and add salary as a variable.

 

To me, I think that's where it becomes very interesting in a salary capped world.

[jammer2]

@brelic  This seems like a very cool idea, a few stats that might help are time on ice, and time on ice during the top pp.

[JR Ewing]

Thanks. Very interesting.

 

I wonder if I could piggyback on a lot of that work and add salary as a variable.

 

To me, I think that's where it becomes very interesting in a salary capped world.

 

Agreed. As obvious as it may be to say, it still bears mentioning: return on cap spending is a huge issue for every NHL team.

[ScottM]

@brelic  This seems like a very cool idea, a few stats that might help are time on ice, and time on ice during the top pp.

 

Penalty kill time would be useful too as it would help demonstrate the contributions of defensive-minded players. Special teams goals for and against while the player was on the ice might be helpful too.

[WordsOfWisdom]

I'm toying around with developing a Player Value Index (PVI), and need some help and input.

 

I'd love to hear some thoughts, suggestions, criticisms. As far as I know, there is no such meta-index for NHL players yet. If done well, I think it could be very useful in trading, drafting, free agency, etc. 

 

Already done it! Check it out:  

 

Total Value Points

http://www.hockeyforums.net/index.php/topic/64512-total-value-points-leaders-toronto-maple-leafs-2014-2015-season/

 

My thoughts on what you're doing: Someone is going to make a WAR stat for hockey (if they haven't already) that does this. Whether anyone ties it to salary is just a matter of one additional calculation. 

 

My TVP stat isn't as complete as WAR, but it gets you most of what WAR provides for very little effort, and it's much easier to understand and calculate. Simplicity > Complexity.