Struve Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Derek Stepan filed for arbitration, as most everyone knows. In my mind, his worth is not a complicated question. $6 mil per year. Done. If it gets up to 6.25 to 6.50 mil $$$ per year, I'd probably bite my tongue and pay the man. Anything over that amount would be an overpayment, in my opinion. The one comparison I'm seeing often is the one being made vs Ryan O' Reilly. ROR just signed a 7 year extension with the Sabres @ $7.5 mil AAV for Seven years. Rangers fans & columnists fear that ROR's contract will be used as a point of comparison during the arbitration hearing...thereby guaranteeing Stepan a $7.5 mil arbitration victory. While I do think ROR and Stepan are comparable players...two points I'd like to make: 1. The extension goes into effect for the 2016-17 season. ROR would have become a UFA before the start of that season. Hence, the contract extension he just signed is truly a UFA contract. UFA contracts are not admissible during RFA arbitration hearings. End of story. Poor columnists like Larry Brooks seem to think that the ROR contract extension will have a direct impact on the Stepan arbitration hearing, when in fact that couldn't be any further from the truth. 2. Even if the ROR contract were admissible as a means of comparison, his is not the only contract in the NHL. The arbitration committee wouldn't be so brain dead as to take seriously one of the most ridiculous contracts in the leauge. The ROR contract, to me, is unique in that it dramatically overpays a player who put up 55 points last season. Any opinions on Stepan's worth? If the Rangers offer him $6.0 to $6.5 AAV for around 6 years, do you think that could get it done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J0e Th0rnton Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Derek Stepan filed for arbitration, as most everyone knows. In my mind, his worth is not a complicated question. $6 mil per year. Done. If it gets up to 6.25 to 6.50 mil $$$ per year, I'd probably bite my tongue and pay the man. Anything over that amount would be an overpayment, in my opinion. The one comparison I'm seeing often is the one being made vs Ryan O' Reilly. ROR just signed a 7 year extension with the Sabres @ $7.5 mil AAV for Seven years. Rangers fans & columnists fear that ROR's contract will be used as a point of comparison during the arbitration hearing...thereby guaranteeing Stepan a $7.5 mil arbitration victory. While I do think ROR and Stepan are comparable players...two points I'd like to make: 1. The extension goes into effect for the 2016-17 season. ROR would have become a UFA before the start of that season. Hence, the contract extension he just signed is truly a UFA contract. UFA contracts are not admissible during RFA arbitration hearings. End of story. Poor columnists like Larry Brooks seem to think that the ROR contract extension will have a direct impact on the Stepan arbitration hearing, when in fact that couldn't be any further from the truth. 2. Even if the ROR contract were admissible as a means of comparison, his is not the only contract in the NHL. The arbitration committee wouldn't be so brain dead as to take seriously one of the most ridiculous contracts in the leauge. The ROR contract, to me, is unique in that it dramatically overpays a player who put up 55 points last season. Any opinions on Stepan's worth? If the Rangers offer him $6.0 to $6.5 AAV for around 6 years, do you think that could get it done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
idahophilly Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 6.895 Million, 1 Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Struve Posted July 8, 2015 Author Share Posted July 8, 2015 @hf101 Nice pic @J0e Th0rnton Great GIF. Speaks all the words you needed to say. I get it. Pay the man. @idahophilly $6.895 would be tough to squeeze under the cap w/o trading someone (Klein? Glass?). Depends on what we do with our RFAs. Etem & Fast will probably be offered the minimums of .8505 (Etem) & .950 (Fast). Miller MQO I think would be $.874, but I'm not sure. I'm thinking he'll get more than that. Maybe around 1.25 to 1.50 mil. If Miller gets as little as the MQO, we could squeeze Stepan in @ $6.895 without being forced into a trade. Should be an interesting couple of weeks. If the Steps situation does go all the way to a hearing, I'm thinking he'll be granted somewhere around $6.5 mil or a little less, which I'd pay. The closer you get to $7 mil, the less interested I become. I don't want Stepan's contract to become a ball & chain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teenagemutantninjahertl Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 The real question is how much more than Derick Brassard does he deserve? Let's look at some details: Stepan is two years younger than Brassard. Stepan has 8 more points over the last two years than Brassard, playing 11 less games. Stepan has 1 less points in the playoffs over the last two years. Granted, Stepan's goals have been huge. Stepan is a marginally better faceoff man. Marginally. They can both play on the top line with Nash. All in all, Stepan probably should end up with something around $5.5 mil., based on the value of Brassard. That being said, he would probably get $6.5 in arbitration based on comparable players around the league. Look at players around the same number of points, keeping in mind players who are near retirement, players on entry-level contracts, and defensemen with similar production (they get paid more): Landeskog, Bakes, RNH, Oshie, Duchene, Bergeron, Callahan, Ryan, Little, Hornqvist Average contract value: $5.613 mil Arbitration guess: $6.1 mil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hf101 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 The real question is how much more than Derick Brassard does he deserve? Let's look at some details: Stepan is two years younger than Brassard. Stepan has 8 more points over the last two years than Brassard, playing 11 less games. Stepan has 1 less points in the playoffs over the last two years. Granted, Stepan's goals have been huge. Stepan is a marginally better faceoff man. Marginally. They can both play on the top line with Nash. All in all, Stepan probably should end up with something around $5.5 mil., based on the value of Brassard. That being said, he would probably get $6.5 in arbitration based on comparable players around the league. Look at players around the same number of points, keeping in mind players who are near retirement, players on entry-level contracts, and defensemen with similar production (they get paid more): Landeskog, Bakes, RNH, Oshie, Duchene, Bergeron, Callahan, Ryan, Little, Hornqvist Average contract value: $5.613 mil Arbitration guess: $6.1 mil.nice post I really don't see Stepan making much more than $6M and it wouldn't surprise me either if the ACV was just under $6M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teenagemutantninjahertl Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 nice post I really don't see Stepan making much more than $6M and it wouldn't surprise me either if the ACV was just under $6M I don't think Stepan is worth $6M a year. $5.5M would be better. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mojo1917 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 I often think of Stepan as being the best forward on the Rangers...he's a beast in the circle on face offs, has great speed and vision, He's a player I covet for my team... I think 6.5 x 3 or 6.25 x 4 is great value for him, I can see him commanding a higher salary on the open market. The issue with him for me anyway is he always seems nicked up or injured when he's needed most, kind of like the way Jeff Carter's tenure with the Flyers played out, he doesn't disappear in the playoffs but you often don't get to see DS in full effect either. I don't like the Rangers even a little bit but i do like Stepan's game a lot, Teddy KGB says it for me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Struve Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 I often think of Stepan as being the best forward on the Rangers...he's a beast in the circle on face offs, has great speed and vision, He's a player I covet for my team... I think 6.5 x 3 or 6.25 x 4 is great value for him, I can see him commanding a higher salary on the open market. The issue with him for me anyway is he always seems nicked up or injured when he's needed most, kind of like the way Jeff Carter's tenure with the Flyers played out, he doesn't disappear in the playoffs but you often don't get to see DS in full effect either. I don't like the Rangers even a little bit but i do like Stepan's game a lot, Teddy KGB says it for me: Thanks for adding to the conversation, mojo. I don't want to come off as a jerk here, but most of your comments are pretty much 180 degrees from the truth. First, Stepan is a poor face-off man. Moore is by far our best, at 54.5% FO wins. Brass is 2nd at 48.8%, which is nearing 50%. Stepan is a lowly 44.1% in the circle. One thing us Ranger fans consistently complain about is his lack of ability in the FO Circle. Stepan also does not have great speed. Speed-wise, he's an average skater at best Stepan does have good vision...I will agree. He's an intelligent playmaker that makes his mark via IQ/sense/vision and two-way play. Defensively he is a beast. Regarding injuries, I'll have to disagree once again. Stepan is one of the healthier players in the NHL. Last season marked his 5th full season as a Ranger and it was the first season he missed any games. He missed 14 games due to some broken bones. Like you, I would pay the 6.25 or 6.50. If we can get him for less, I'm all for it. BUT, I can't see Stepan accepting less than 6.0. He'd allow the arbitration hearings to commence before allowing that to happen. The arbitrators will give him his 6.0 to 6.5. Once you get over that 6.5 mark, then I start to scratch my head. I don't think the arbitrators would go over 6.5, and I don't believe the case makes it to a hearing if the Rangers offer anywhere from 6.0 to 6.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mojo1917 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Regarding injuries, I'll have to disagree once again. Stepan is one of the healthier players in the NHL. Last season marked his 5th full season as a Ranger and it was the first season he missed any games. He missed 14 games due to some broken bones. hey no sweat , like I said I'm not a fan of the Rangers... while i was watching the playoffs, i thought i heard reference to him coming back from injury and not being 100%.,Also my face-off comment was purely anecdotal because of the way he owns the Flyers, and that's no b.s. And look, he's no Chris Kreider, but he's far from only an "average at best" skater too . I watch the Schenn brothers often, now that is average at best skating. I also remember the Malkin shot to his knees that caused Fonzie to blow his lid in the post game presser http://nypost.com/2012/04/06/rangers-lose-to-penguins-coach-angry-over-cheap-hit/ I thought DS missed some time from that, it was late-ish in the season and at the time clouded the playoff picture. Like I said I like his game , he's a very good player on one of the leagues more glamorous teams. I'd pay him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammer2 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 @Struve 6.0 seems about right, fair even. His agents could quote some other contracts that could drive the price up. 6 is going to be the bar for an slightly above average 2nd line center. I can see 6.5 happening, but when you get into the 7 range, that is to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Struve Posted July 14, 2015 Author Share Posted July 14, 2015 Etem & Fast will probably be offered the minimums of .8505 (Etem) & .950 (Fast). Miller MQO I think would be $.874, but I'm not sure. I'm thinking he'll get more than that. Maybe around 1.25 to 1.50 mil. If Miller gets as little as the MQO, we could squeeze Stepan in @ $6.895 without being forced into a trade. Etem signed today. Dollar amount and length not confirmed as of yet, but General Fanager has him listed at: 1 year2015-16Two-Way$850,500 NHL$70,875 AHL This could change upon confirmation, but is in line with what was expected. Also, Oscar Lindberg signed today as well: Specifics not confirmed as of yet, but General Fanager has the following listed: 2 yearsOne-Way$650,000 for 2015-16$650,000 for 2016-17 I'm hoping it remains One-Way, as that'll mean he is guaranteed his shot, but I'll believe that once it's been confirmed. General Fanager is sometimes incorrect until they get things confirmed. Honestly, I'd be shocked if it is not really a two-way contract. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Struve Posted July 16, 2015 Author Share Posted July 16, 2015 Fast will probably be offered the minimums .950. Miller MQO I think would be $.874, but I'm not sure. I'm thinking he'll get more than that. Maybe around 1.25 to 1.50 mil. If Miller gets as little as the MQO, we could squeeze Stepan in @ $6.895 without being forced into a trade. Should be an interesting couple of weeks. If the Steps situation does go all the way to a hearing, I'm thinking he'll be granted somewhere around $6.5 mil or a little less, which I'd pay. The closer you get to $7 mil, the less interested I become. I don't want Stepan's contract to become a ball & chain. Well, Fast signed today at the .950 MQO, and did so for two years. Happy that we'll have him for those 2 years @ the MQO amount. Miller's MQO was .874, as I suspected it would be....but I expected him to sign for more money and more years. Instead, he signed for 1 year @ the .874 MQO. Miller must be hoping for a good year and will try to take the Rangers to the bank next year. All key players are signed. So, just Stepan remains. Plenty of money left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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