What purpose does the Game Winning Goal stat serve?

[Boston]

Take a look at this box score http://www.hockey-reference.com/boxscores/201305200DET.html It is game 3 of the Red Wings/Blackhawks series.

Scoring Summary

2nd Period 07:49 DET Gustav Nyquist (2) from Damien Brunner and Joakim Andersson 08:20 DET Drew Miller (1) from Patrick Eaves and Cory Emmerton 3rd Period 04:35 CHI Patrick Kane (2) from Duncan Keith 06:46 DET Pavel Datsyuk (3) from Johan Franzen and Brendan Smith

According to how the GWG is determined, Miller gets the GWG. From looking at the box score, we can determine the following:

1) there is nothing to indicate Miller's goal actually won the game.

2) Miller's goal was probably less clutch than Datsyuk's goal - which gave the Wings a 3-1 lead early in the 3rd period - suggesting that GWG isn't meant to measure clutch.

3) At the time Miller scored, it was unclear what would happen after his goal. So he is not rewarded in real time. He is rewarded based on things that occur after his goal - much of which he has no control over.

This raises the big question of what purpose the GWG stat serves.

[J0e Th0rnton]

Take a look at this box score http://www.hockey-re...1305200DET.html It is game 3 of the Red Wings/Blackhawks series.

Scoring Summary

2nd Period 07:49 DET Gustav Nyquist (2) from Damien Brunner and Joakim Andersson 08:20 DET Drew Miller (1) from Patrick Eaves and Cory Emmerton 3rd Period 04:35 CHI Patrick Kane (2) from Duncan Keith 06:46 DET Pavel Datsyuk (3) from Johan Franzen and Brendan Smith

According to how the GWG is determined, Miller gets the GWG. From looking at the box score, we can determine the following:

1) there is nothing to indicate Miller's goal actually won the game.

2) Miller's goal was probably less clutch than Datsyuk's goal - which gave the Wings a 3-1 lead early in the 3rd period - suggesting that GWG isn't meant to measure clutch.

3) At the time Miller scored, it was unclear what would happen after his goal. So he is not rewarded in real time. He is rewarded based on things that occur after his goal - much of which he has no control over.

This raises the big question of what purpose the GWG stat serves.

In some cases, nothing. In some cases, it means a lot.

If someone picked up a game winning goal in a 7-2 Hockey game, I would say the goal did not mean a whole lot in terms of clutch. However it "May" have. When 2 teams are tied and playing hard, sometimes the game winning goal opens the floodgates as the other team goes a bit more offensive trying to tie it back up. Witness Canada vs USA in 2002. The 5-2 score is deceiving because that game was super close. The Game winning goal in that game definitely means something.

And obviously, Crosby's game winning goal in the 2010 Olympics overtime was HUGE

[hf101]

It is also a scoring category used often in fantasy hockey leagues.

[JR Ewing]

Uh oh...

I've been down this road enough times over the last 9-10 years on message boards. I know where this leads.

JR

[Haliax]

Uh oh...

I've been down this road enough times over the last 9-10 years on message boards. I know where this leads.

JR

Yup.

Honestly, it isn't a stat I've ever really paid attention to.

[Boston]

In some cases, nothing. In some cases, it means a lot.

If someone picked up a game winning goal in a 7-2 Hockey game, I would say the goal did not mean a whole lot in terms of clutch. However it "May" have. When 2 teams are tied and playing hard, sometimes the game winning goal opens the floodgates as the other team goes a bit more offensive trying to tie it back up. Witness Canada vs USA in 2002. The 5-2 score is deceiving because that game was super close. The Game winning goal in that game definitely means something.

It sounds as if you're advocating the tie-breaking goal be given more credit than the GWG. Am I correct?

And obviously, Crosby's game winning goal in the 2010 Olympics overtime was HUGE

Why not come up with a clutch goal stat? Perhaps assign it to any goal scored in the last five minutes (or overtime) of any game - provided the teams were within either 1 or 2 of each other on the scoreboard at the time of the goal. This would keep a goal which gives a team a 2-0 lead early in the first period the potential to be erroneously considered extra important.

[Boston]

It is also a scoring category used often in fantasy hockey leagues.

While I don't play in fantasy leagues, this seems strange. Why not use the aforementioned "clutch goal" stat instead of GWGs? GWG is far too dependent on things which occur after the goal, while clutch is measured in real time.

[jammer2]

While I don't play in fantasy leagues, this seems strange. Why not use the aforementioned "clutch goal" stat instead of GWGs? GWG is far too dependent on things which occur after the goal, while clutch is measured in real time.

I don't think the fantasy hockey providers want to determine what a "clutch" goal entails....what is the time limit, do pk goals count, is there a limit to clutch goals in a game? All stuff providers don't want to be responible for, it's easier to piggy back on an actual stats the NHL already provides...even though, yes, I think it's a dumb thing to have around. I can't tell you how many fantasy match ups I've lost cause some obscure player pops in the game winner.

[JR Ewing]

Yup.

Honestly, it isn't a stat I've ever really paid attention to.

Not only that, but I've seen this exact topic played out in exactly this fashion.

It started out with a hypothetical description of goals scored and who was awarded the GWG, and then asked forum members to say why/how it worked. Then, after, the person came and told them why GWG is so wrong, blah blah blah, etc etc etc.

Seen this a few times on a few forums over the last decade.

JR

[Boston]

Not only that, but I've seen this exact topic played out in exactly this fashion.

It started out with a hypothetical description of goals scored and who was awarded the GWG, and then asked forum members to say why/how it worked. Then, after, the person came and told them why GWG is so wrong, blah blah blah, etc etc etc.

Seen this a few times on a few forums over the last decade.

JR

I found this in a quick search. http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7443535/who-gets-the-game-winning-goal

Pretty funny!

[jammer2]

Not only that, but I've seen this exact topic played out in exactly this fashion.

It started out with a hypothetical description of goals scored and who was awarded the GWG, and then asked forum members to say why/how it worked. Then, after, the person came and told them why GWG is so wrong, blah blah blah, etc etc etc.

Seen this a few times on a few forums over the last decade.

JR

Yep, when you are around message board long enough, you inevitably see stuff recycled. For example, I've posted in about 10 identical threads about the top 5 goalies like we have going now. I fully expect a top 5 defensemen thread before the end of the summer....lol.

Being a veteran poster, I quite often use the stragety of anticipating an opposing view, acknowledging it, discuss it and ultimately undermine the opposition before the even get a chance to counter....lol. I learned quickly that people will inevitably take the opposite side to your theory, no matter how much sense it makes.....so the self made counter comes in handy...ha ha.

[JR Ewing]

Yep, when you are around message board long enough, you inevitably see stuff recycled. For example, I've posted in about 10 identical threads about the top 5 goalies like we have going now. I fully expect a top 5 defensemen thread before the end of the summer....lol.

Being a veteran poster, I quite often use the stragety of anticipating an opposing view, acknowledging it, discuss it and ultimately undermine the opposition before the even get a chance to counter....lol. I learned quickly that people will inevitably take the opposite side to your theory, no matter how much sense it makes.....so the self made counter comes in handy...ha ha.

It's not only that, but I've seen this precise set of posts from a guy who went around to a bunch of forums at the same time, all so he could bait people with an argument over GWG, and he could "expose" their "lack of logic", when all they were doing was explaining the league's logic to him. He wasn't interested in discussion or debate. He was interested in looking down on people.

He was, in short, an ass.

I don't know if this is the same guy, but if he is..............

JR

Edited July 20, 2013 by JR Ewing

[J0e Th0rnton]

It's not only that, but I've seen this precise set of posts from a guy who went around to a bunch of forums at the same time, all so he could bait people with an argument over GWG, and he could "expose" their "lack of logic", when all they were doing was explaining the league's logic to him. He wasn't interested in discussion or debate. He was interested in looking down on people.

He was, in short, an ass.

I don't know if this is the same guy, but if he is..............

JR

Mushroom Cloud?

Edited July 21, 2013 by J0e Th0rnton

[NRH]

Does the league even keep a tally of the GWG after the fact or do they just point out which goal won the game? I've never seen this stat line anywhere other than game summary pages.

[JR Ewing]

@

Yes, the league tracks GWG:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20132ALLSASALL&sort=gameWinningGoals&viewName=summary

JR

[NRH]

Well it's hardly a fluke if you're consistently appearing on the list.

However I would not consider it a clutch stat, it's more of a last goal that mattered stat, since every goal before and after weren't the winners. It tells you a lot more about the game when just looking a a post game summary.

Does the league track 3rd period goals? If not I'm sure some scouts do, which would indicate more of a "clutch" player.

[jammer2]

@ I remember seeing a stat where they totaled goals that tied games, goals that won games.....and a stat that gives insight into garbage goals, ie 7th goal in a 5 goal win etc....forget where I saw that, don't think it's from NHL.com or anything, think it was a private web site.

[NRH]

Probably http://www.esb.com/

[Boston]

Well it's hardly a fluke if you're consistently appearing on the list.

However I would not consider it a clutch stat, it's more of a last goal that mattered stat, since every goal before and after weren't the winners. It tells you a lot more about the game when just looking a a post game summary.

Does the league track 3rd period goals? If not I'm sure some scouts do, which would indicate more of a "clutch" player.

Interesting point. If you were a scout, would you put more stock in GWG or in third period goals?

[NRH]

I'd take a "Moneyball" approach to my hockey team until I got fired or it worked

[Boston]

I'd take a "Moneyball" approach to my hockey team until I got fired or it worked

What we still don't know is what the NHL is trying to measure or accomplish by tallying the Game Winning Goal.

[NRH]

Probably who scored the game winning goal, the stat is pretty self explanatory. The stat tells you who scored the goal that won their team the game.

Is this a hard concept to grasp?

Why aren't you guys arguing about some thing like shooting %; a stat line that issues you even less information about a player and the game than the who scored the winning goal?

[JR Ewing]

Probably who scored the game winning goal, the stat is pretty self explanatory. The stat tells you who scored the goal that won their team the game.

Is this a hard concept to grasp?

Why aren't you guys arguing about some thing like shooting %; a stat line that issues you even less information about a player and the game than the who scored the winning goal?

You'll see... You'll see.

JR

[DaGreatGazoo]

Probably who scored the game winning goal, the stat is pretty self explanatory. The stat tells you who scored the goal that won their team the game.

Is this a hard concept to grasp?

Why aren't you guys arguing about some thing like shooting %; a stat line that issues you even less information about a player and the game than the who scored the winning goal?

For us old--timers and Philly.com veterans, we should also re-address the +\- stat.

[dilbert719]

Interesting point. If you were a scout, would you put more stock in GWG or in third period goals?

Not sure, since there are a good number of games that are functionally over by the third period, just as there are a number of games where the GWG really is irrelevant.

What I'd probably put the most stock in is GWG with 1 goal Margin of Victory. Not every player pots those regularly, and I'd be interested to see what players consistently pot winning goals in tie games. That's pretty much the ultimate "clutch goal" stat.