The Split "Homer's Use of Draft Picks" Thread

[aziz]

@OccamsRazor

 

you have to squint real hard on corsi to derive meaning from it.  like i said, of course a squad that includes a possession dman is going to average more shots for than a squad featuring a stay at home dman.  corsi reflects that, but it doesn't tell you anything about the shots themselves.  if subban's unit manages 4 shots on net over a shift, but gives up one 2-on-1 against because subban completely abandoned his point without ensuring adequate coverage...and the other team scores on that 2-on-1...subban's corsi number is +3, but he his +/- is -1.  corsi works best in evaluating players who bring similar approaches to the game, or players whose roles are the same.  subban does a better job of driving possession than kris letang does.  given that they fill essentially the same roles on their teams, corsi is an appropriate comparison.  

 

another note on corsi is that it includes all shots directed on goal, not just "shots on goal".  shots can be blocked, can miss the goal high and wide, so long as they were launched, they count in the statistic.  grossmann has blocked some 50-odd more shots than subban, but those shots count against him in the corsi figures.

 

also, i believe (but am not completely sure, so someone correct me if i'm wrong) that shots directed at the goal are counted in the corsi formula regardless of manpower on the ice.  which would again obviously favor a dman who exclusively plays even strength and the PP over a dman who kills penalties but never skates on the PP.

 

corsi has more to say than +/- does, maybe, but only if you are really careful about how you are using it.

 

edit:  ok, looks like corsi "typically" only uses 5-on-5 shots, though as it is not an officially tracked stat, there is no hard and fast rule.  probably safe to assume the numbers posted above are even strength, though.

Edited February 18, 2014 by aziz

[JackStraw]

I'm kind of shocked (only kind of) by Flyers fans saying they wouldn't want Subban. I guess those people wouldn't want Erik Karlsson either, since the same criticism (strong on O, weak on D) are leveled at him too. And I guess those people wouldn't have wanted Paul Coffey either. Oh wait, we got him eventually.

 

If you have a chance at that kind of talent you take it. If there are weaknesses you trust your coaches to address them.

 

Considering the state of the Flyers blue line, Flyers fans saying they wouldn't want a Subban or a Karlsson is like a starving man saying he doesn't want a cheesesteak because it's not a filet mignon.

[jammer2]

I'm kind of shocked (only kind of) by Flyers fans saying they wouldn't want Subban. I guess those people wouldn't want Erik Karlsson either, since the same criticism (strong on O, weak on D) are leveled at him too. And I guess those people wouldn't have wanted Paul Coffey either. Oh wait, we got him eventually.

 

If you have a chance at that kind of talent you take it. If there are weaknesses you trust your coaches to address them.

 

Considering the state of the Flyers blue line, Flyers fans saying they wouldn't want a Subban or a Karlsson is like a starving man saying he doesn't want a cheesesteak because it's not a filet mignon.

 

 

 Oh so TRUE!!

[radoran]

I'm kind of shocked (only kind of) by Flyers fans saying they wouldn't want Subban. I guess those people wouldn't want Erik Karlsson either, since the same criticism (strong on O, weak on D) are leveled at him too. And I guess those people wouldn't have wanted Paul Coffey either. Oh wait, we got him eventually.

 

If you have a chance at that kind of talent you take it. If there are weaknesses you trust your coaches to address them.

 

Considering the state of the Flyers blue line, Flyers fans saying they wouldn't want a Subban or a Karlsson is like a starving man saying he doesn't want a cheesesteak because it's not a filet mignon.

 

Subban will look great in orange and black as a 37-year-old paired with a 36-year-old Karlsson. They'll both be starting 8-year, NMC deals.

 

So, 2027's looking bright.

 

[flyercanuck]

@radoran

 

 Don't forget Weber...we'll likely get him then too.

[JackStraw]

Subban will look great in orange and black as a 37-year-old paired with a 36-year-old Karlsson. They'll both be starting 8-year, NMC deals.

 

So, 2027's looking bright.

 

 

Edited February 20, 2014 by JackStraw

[aziz]

Considering the state of the Flyers blue line, Flyers fans saying they wouldn't want a Subban or a Karlsson is like a starving man saying he doesn't want a cheesesteak because it's not a filet mignon.

In not sure that adding a defenseman who is specifically bad at playing defense addresses the state of the blue line in any advantageous way. Is more offensive production from the point worth worsened defensive coverage and increased oddman situations against?

Seems to me, the "state of the blueline" needs a strong defensive presence to fix. One with offensive capability, but primarily the ability to shoulder the load on the defensive side of the puck. A go to guy when protecting a lead or surviving a vital penalty kill. Subban and Karlsson are not that. They are more offensively gifted versions of Mark Streit. That is not what this team needs.

[OccamsRazor]

In not sure that adding a defenseman who is specifically bad at playing defense addresses the state of the blue line in any advantageous way. Is more offensive production from the point worth worsened defensive coverage and increased oddman situations against?

Seems to me, the "state of the blueline" needs a strong defensive presence to fix. One with offensive capability, but primarily the ability to shoulder the load on the defensive side of the puck. A go to guy when protecting a lead or surviving a vital penalty kill. Subban and Karlsson are not that. They are more offensively gifted versions of Mark Streit. That is not what this team needs.

Yes. You defencemen who can play defense. Even the best offense(LA) in the NHL only possesed the puck 56% of the time that means the other team has the puck 44% of the time so you need guys who can play defense, block shots and get the puck and get it out of the zone to the forwards.

So basically its which comes first the chicken or the egg...I'm not sure.

[radoran]

In not sure that adding a defenseman who is specifically bad at playing defense addresses the state of the blue line in any advantageous way. Is more offensive production from the point worth worsened defensive coverage and increased oddman situations against?

Seems to me, the "state of the blueline" needs a strong defensive presence to fix. One with offensive capability, but primarily the ability to shoulder the load on the defensive side of the puck. A go to guy when protecting a lead or surviving a vital penalty kill. Subban and Karlsson are not that. They are more offensively gifted versions of Mark Streit. That is not what this team needs.

 

Well, then it's not surprising the impact Streit has had on the blue line, eh?

 

Agree completely on the strong defensive presence needed on the blue line.

Taking the discussion to the next level - who do they target and what are they willing/able to give up to obtain it?

[flyercanuck]

@radoran

 

 That's where I'm out. I'd like to have Subban, Karlsson, heck even Letang (shhh, don't tell Polaris) but at what cost? I think Voracek and Schenn and a 1st, or whatever the cost, is more valuable to the team. And if I'm trading a package like that, I want a defenceman who I can trust out there when I'm up by a goal with a minute left.

[radoran]

@radoran

 

 That's where I'm out. I'd like to have Subban, Karlsson, heck even Letang (shhh, don't tell Polaris) but at what cost? I think Voracek and Schenn and a 1st, or whatever the cost, is more valuable to the team. And if I'm trading a package like that, I want a defenceman who I can trust out there when I'm up by a goal with a minute left.

 

Yes, we have identified the problem. That's the easy part.

The hard part is determining how to fill it. Grossmann was touted as a defense-first, stay-at-homer and got the extension from the team to go with it. Schenn was touted as a defensive-defenceman with an offensive upside - was traded for to be that person and has the contract to go with it. Coburn was the "offensive" guy who was going to make up for Carle - and has the contract to go with it. Andrej Meszaros was supposed to be that coming out of Ottawa - and got the contract from Tampa and was traded for by the Flyers to fill that role.

 

That's, by all accounts, four missteps on filling the "needs" on the blue line.

 

Then you have Timonen - in his swan song phase - and the addition of Streit (a poor man's Karlsson/Subban) for the next three seasons.

 

Here are the upcoming UFAs - http://www.capgeek.com/ufa-finder/?position_id=D

 

Here are the RFAs - http://www.capgeek.com/free-agents/?year_id=2014&team_id=-1&position_id=D&fa_type_id=1

 

Any suggestions?

[DaGreatGazoo]

Any suggestions?

 

Punt?

[flyercanuck]

 

 

Any suggestions?

 

 

 You really have to ask?

 

 Patience. Draft and develop.

[radoran]

Punt?

 

Right, so the best thing is to make the best of what it is you are stuck with.

 

2/3 of the blue line are signed for at least the next two seasons. The openings are Timonen (wouldn't surprise me to see him reup) and Meszaros (who, quite frankly, should have been be traded).

 

I think the Flyers have a bunch of 3/4 players and are lacking something like (for example) a Huskins or Alberts or similar to play a semi-solid 5/6 role on a regular basis and take some of the load off.

 

And even then, they'll be roasted for not being Chris Pronger, Shea Weber or Ryan Suter.

[radoran]

 You really have to ask?

 

 Patience. Draft and develop.

 

I ask primarily because "we need a solid blue line player" is like "Bryzgalov sucks" or "can we get Weber back now?" in the pantheon of obvious topics for Flyers fans.

 

If we all agree with "we need a solid blue line player" the obvious next step is WHO and HOW and WHEN.

 

There is no way, and you know this, that the Flyers are waiting 3-5 years to "develop" Morin/Hagg/Gotstobehere

[flyercanuck]

@radoran

 

 I won't argue that. I can still dream though....

[JackStraw]

In not sure that adding a defenseman who is specifically bad at playing defense addresses the state of the blue line in any advantageous way. Is more offensive production from the point worth worsened defensive coverage and increased oddman situations against?

 

Luke Schenn is a strong defensive presence. So is Coburn. So is Grossman.

 

It's not just production from the point. It's about moving the puck out of the defensive zone and through the neutral zone. The Flyers have guys who are generally adequate in a purely defensive role. The transition game is what really sucks, and has been sucking for some time now. And neither Subban or Karlsson are as bad defensively as some make them out to be. If you can draft a Doughty or a Seth Jones great, but not many teams get that opportunity. In which case you have to build your roster with a mix of players that address various facets of the game. And if that means going with a player that is stronger in one area than another then that's what you have to do.

Edited February 20, 2014 by JackStraw

[JackStraw]

Even the best offense(LA) in the NHL only possesed the puck 56% of the time

 

How is LA the best offense in the NHL? They're 26th out of 30 teams in goals scored.

[JackStraw]

@radoran

 

 That's where I'm out. I'd like to have Subban, Karlsson, heck even Letang (shhh, don't tell Polaris) but at what cost? I think Voracek and Schenn and a 1st, or whatever the cost, is more valuable to the team. And if I'm trading a package like that, I want a defenceman who I can trust out there when I'm up by a goal with a minute left.

 

I would like any of those guys as well (yes, Letang too) but not at the cost it would take to trade for them. Which is why you draft them instead of waiting for them to arrive while playing for some other team.

[flyercanuck]

@JackStraw

 

'Zackly! Yes Philly rarely picks high enough to draft a Doughty or a Seth Jones....but they've also passed on Weber, Keith, Subban etc etc etc. At least they used a couple of high picks on Dmen last year. Instead of trading them away for Doughtys great uncle or Jones grandfather.

[OccamsRazor]

How is LA the best offense in the NHL? They're 26th out of 30 teams in goals scored.

Possesion wise they were #1 got to have the puck to score. Over 60 minutes they possed the puck 56% of the game. Yes I should have clarified that my fault.

[JackStraw]

Possesion wise they were #1 got to have the puck to score. Over 60 minutes they possed the puck 56% of the game. Yes I should have clarified that my fault.

 

Where do the Flyers rank in that statistic? I'm guessing pretty low. I'll bet having more defenseman who can actually handle and move the puck would improve their position significantly.

[OccamsRazor]

Where do the Flyers rank in that statistic? I'm guessing pretty low. I'll bet having more defenseman who can actually handle and move the puck would improve their position significantly.

Where do the Flyers rank in that statistic? I'm guessing pretty low. I'll bet having more defenseman who can actually handle and move the puck would improve their position significantly.

Where do the Flyers rank in that statistic? I'm guessing pretty low. I'll bet having more defenseman who can actually handle and move the puck would improve their position significantly.

Can't remember I'm stuck at work I'll check it when I get home tonight and post it.

[OccamsRazor]

Where do the Flyers rank in that statistic?

 

LA 1st 56.5

 

Flyers 19th. 49.3

 

Toronto 30th. 43.6

 

CF%

 

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201314&sit=5v5&sort=CFPCT&sortdir=DESC

Edited February 21, 2014 by OccamsRazor

[jammer2]

@radoran  Dear Lord, almost everyone on that UFA list is on the wrong side of 30. A few guys look interesting, like Anton Stalman, he might provide a nice 5-6 for a decent cap hit, but not really sure he'd be an upgrade over our kids. I do like his shot though. The RFA's all seem like they would cost A LOT, but a few guys might be worth a shot.....I liked the way Belov looked at the Olympics, he might be a diamond in the rough. Another interesting thought is Torey Krug. I know the Bruins are cash strapped, considering he's a basically a rookie with a dynamic skill set on the pp, maybe you could throw 3-5 mill a year his way and Boston could not match. Would not be the defensive saviour we need, but will fill the pp qb need for a LONG time, which is something, cause when Kimo leaves, having Streit back there with no real back up plan is bad news.

 

  Other than those pipedreams, stay the course, stay patient. fc makes a great point, I can pine for Subban all day, but the bottom line is I would not gut the teams core to get him in O&B. I do think the has a lot of "defensive" upside, and the offense is obvious, but at the end of the day, to risky to gut the team. Would have been thrilled to get him in the 2nd in his draft year though.....absolutely friggin thrilled!!!